ESPN Rookie Rankings (based on potential)

[Eddie20]

This is based strictly on potential. Interesting to hear reactions of the Okafor/Sixer fans since both have him pretty low. Hollis-Jefferson is really high, higher than Johnson who isn't on the list, despite Johnson being (almost?) as good defensively and without a broken shot. Sorry Triboy, Mickey didn't make the cut. 

Ford
1. Towns
2. Porzingis
3. Mudiay
4. Russell
5. Winslow
6. Turner
7. Oubre
8. Hezonja
9. Hollis-Jefferson
10. Okafor



Pelton
1. Towns
2. Porzingis
3. Russell
4. Cauley-Stein
5. Hollis-Jefferson
6. Winslow
7. Mudiay
8. Okafor
9. Turner
10. Kaminsky

[Eddie20]

Thought it would be good to add this, since the first couple of picks are fairly obvious, but this explains thought process.

Ranking the rest

Ford: Who's next for you, Kevin?

Pelton: Now I'm throwing my hands up. You phrased it well as a choice between potential and current production. And I'm not sure there's a good compromise.

If anything, the first two months of the season have only exacerbated my concerns about Okafor's ability to anchor a quality NBA defense, while raising some new ones about how he fits offensively and off the court. I think Mudiay will eventually be a productive player, but it could take years. So I'm going to go with the only top-seven pick we haven't mentioned: Willie Cauley-Stein.

I wasn't a fan before the draft because of his poor rebounding and limited offensive production, but Cauley-Stein has been better than expected on the glass (the Sacramento Kings have missed him there since his injury) and shown good touch around the basket. His upside isn't enormous but given Cauley-Stein's defensive ability he's relatively certain to be a useful starter in the league. I'm not sure how many other rookies can say that.

Ford: I agree at this point, it's hard to find someone to really gush about. I think Cauley-Stein is a defensible pick, but I'm looking at a pool of five players and he's not even in that.

Justise Winslow (if he ever figures things out offensively) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ditto) have both had a huge impact on the defensive end. I think Nikola Jokic and Hezonja have intriguing offensive upsides. But my fourth choice is Russell.

I have reservations because of his lack of elite athleticism and he hasn't proven to be the shooter many scouts thought he'd be coming out of college. That's the biggest concern. He's a very good player if he shoots 40 percent or better from 3-point range. If he stays at 33 percent, his value goes way down -- and I'm talking myself out of the pick as I write this. Gah!

Pelton: I'm going to go with one of the players you mentioned, Hollis-Jefferson. At this stage in their careers, Hollis-Jefferson and Winslow have fairly similar skill sets. You can certainly favor Winslow based on his age and ability to play power forward, but I prefer Hollis-Jefferson at this point because he has been a better rebounder and is racking up more blocks and steals.

Hollis-Jefferson is rebounding like a power forward and his steal rate this season is the same as Kawhi Leonard's. I'll take that. Can you find a fifth rookie in whom you're confident?

Ford: Before the draft, everyone was talking about Winslow versus Stanley Johnson. Now I think the Winslow versus Hollis-Jefferson debate is the fascinating one, and I'm torn between the two. But for the reasons you mentioned -- Winslow's age and ability to play power forward, and I think his shot is less broken than Hollis-Jefferson's -- I give Winslow the edge.

Over time I think he'll play a bigger and bigger role for the Heat and can even envision him turning into a Kawhi Leonard type with his work ethic. But Hollis-Jefferson was definitely one of the steals of the draft.

I've been expecting you to pull a real sleeper based on the analytics. Who do you have in the rest of your top 10?

Pelton: Here's my list:

6. Justise Winslow

7. Emmanuel Mudiay

8. Jahlil Okafor

9. Myles Turner

10. Frank Kaminsky

Not a real sleeper in the group. One challenge is the difficulty in evaluating pre-draft favorites such as R.J. Hunter and Delon Wright who have barely played on deep teams. I did consider Jokic, but his ability to defend an NBA position is an issue. Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre also got strong consideration.

Ford: Fair enough. Since this ranking is based on potential, I think we are still too early enough in the season to be totally swayed by the numbers.

Here's the rest of my group:

6. Myles Turner

7. Kelly Oubre

8. Mario Hezonja

9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

10. Jahlil Okafor

The Okafor ranking is low, but I just worry about everything from the way the game has changed to the culture he has been thrown into. Turner looked promising before he went down with an injury. I think he could be good down the road.

I have two guys on my list that you don't. I think Oubre just oozes potential and all the recent injuries in Washington are giving him a chance to be a really effective two-way player, especially if he keeps shooting the ball that well.

Hezonja hasn't been great yet, but when he's been given minutes, he's proven to be an effective shooter and scorer. I think it's coming. With the league's emphasis on shooting, his skills will be valuable. Cauley-Stein, Jokic and Booker were my next three in.

[slamtheking]

hmmm,  no Rozier, Hunter or Mickey.  not totally shocking.

[obnoxiousmime]

It's way too early to tell anything besides the fact that Porzingis and Towns are going to be really good, possibly great, and that Okafor is overrated as expected. Hinkie taking Okafor over Porzingis cost him his position. The whole point of tanking is to get a star. It could be argued that in the Noel draft and Embiid draft there simply wasn't one there for Philly to take so they just went with BPA. You can't really blame Hinkie for those drafts.

However, this draft there was a very clear decision at 3 between Porzingis and Okafor (you might include Mudiay here too) and Hinkie blew the pick. The excitement that Porzingis is providing in New York could have been in Philadelphia and it would have erased all the negative feelings around the team which led to his demotion.

I have to say I'm really jealous of New York and Minnesota. It's so hard to get versatile big men like that. I remember being disappointed that Porzingis didn't declare in 2014 since we had two picks, but it probably doesn't matter because Ainge hates Euros.

[Who]

Surprised they both had J.Okafor so low.

[hwangjini_1]

It's way too early to tell anything besides the fact that Porzingis and Towns are going to be really good, possibly great, and that Okafor is overrated as expected. Hinkie taking Okafor over Porzingis cost him his position. The whole point of tanking is to get a star. It could be argued that in the Noel draft and Embiid draft there simply wasn't one there for Philly to take so they just went with BPA. You can't really blame Hinkie for those drafts.

However, this draft there was a very clear decision at 3 between Porzingis and Okafor (you might include Mudiay here too) and Hinkie blew the pick. The excitement that Porzingis is providing in New York could have been in Philadelphia and it would have erased all the negative feelings around the team which led to his demotion.

I have to say I'm really jealous of New York and Minnesota. It's so hard to get versatile big men like that. I remember being disappointed that Porzingis didn't declare in 2014 since we had two picks, but it probably doesn't matter because Ainge hates Euros.

this was shown to be a cb myth and not accurate. boris badenov did a great post on this very point, showing how it doesnt hold up to ainge's picks relative to the position he drafted. he showed how the available euros simply did not warrant being drafted at those spots.

and for the very few who were worth picking, ainge made a very defensive pick in lieu of them. this long standing myth about ainge is simply not defensible after bb's post.

sorry, but you need another myth to beat to death rather than this one. 

[CroCorvus]

I really don't understand the fascination with Russel and even with Mudiay.

Russel is a better version of Kendall Marshall. He's got a very good vision of the court, but besides of that he's got no athleticism, plays no defence and the shot is very shaky. He plays a ton of minutes for a rookie, on a bad team, so my question is how can we know that Terry Rozier is't better player than him? It's too early to tell that, at least until Terry get's a chance to play... (pre draft info was that both, Russel and Payne, rejected the invitation to participate in drills along with Terry). Like that Lakers pick

Mudiay is a taller version of Kemba Walker. Shooting 31% from field? C'mon man, everyone could do that. Nothing but an average player on a bad team, same as Russell... 

[SHAQATTACK]

Russell is decent .....but he ll never be Early Rose , Wall or Irving.

[CroCorvus]

Russell is decent .....but he ll never be Early Rose , Wall or Irving.

I agree with you that he is decent.
He is not a No. 2 pick material and if he didn't play for the lakers nobody would even mentioned him.

[Jvalin]

Before the draft I was hoping we would trade up for either Winslow or Hezonja. I’d love to see us offer the Magic something like Kelly, Young and a mid-late first for Hezonja. Chances are that they turn down the offer but you never know.

[celticsclay]

Wow amazing how okafor has fallen in the eyes of those around the league.

[jpotter33]

The concept "potential" is such an arbitrary concept that this isn't really all that helpful. That being said, there's a lot to take issue with these lists. I don't see how Cauley-Stein, Hollis-Jefferson, or Kaminsky has more "potential" than Okafor. Johnson is going to be a stud and should be on there, and I think Turner should be higher based on pure potential.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Okafor is better than what they have him listed as.

Nice to see my boy Myles Turner getting love from someone else but me. Unfortunately, I always wanted Karl towns since his jr year in hs and was excited when he chose UK because i thought he would struggle for the necessary minutes to show his skill-set. I really got screwed this past draft. 3 less wins and we could have drafted Myles Turner with our own pick. Ainge messed up big time, I'll never forget.

[Future Celtics Owner]

The concept "potential" is such an arbitrary concept that this isn't really all that helpful. That being said, there's a lot to take issue with these lists. I don't see how Cauley-Stein, Hollis-Jefferson, or Kaminsky has more "potential" than Okafor. Johnson is going to be a stud and should be on there, and I think Turner should be higher based on pure potential.

Agree

[Moranis]

I'd be interested to see if you asked them what they thought each players career highs in the various stats would be, where they came down?  I mean I can't imagine they both don't have Okafor in the 25/12 range for points and rebounds if not higher and yet that somehow equates to 10th most potential.  I mean either this is the best draft in history, or those guys are just being overly critical with Okafor.  I imagine it is latter.