Pincus & Coon on the Coming Salary Cap spike

[Rick Robeys Return]

Excellent podcast listen on basketball Insiders: <http://www.basketballinsiders.com/podcast-how-will-massive-salary-spikes-impact-the-nba/>

Discussion of the upcoming spikes in the salary cap over the next couple seasons. Raises some fascinating strategic questions. There are going to be some major free-agent overpayments over the next two seasons (e.g max money to Whiteside or Dwight Howard)  that could potentially really destroy the equilibrium of teams caps. Most especially if/ when the cap comes back down in summer 2018. This reinforces for me the importance of the cost-controlled surplus of picks that the Cs are certain other teams have. It also reinforces the importance of not making stupid free agent over-pays for this team, if they're not going to make us contenders. beyond a very few at the top - e.g. Durant - alot of players are going to get over-paid.

tangentially, I wonder what impact, if any, this dynamic has on the possibility of a lock-out...

[apc]

What's the point of raising the cap just to take it down in 2018?

[Hemingway]

yeah is it going to go down? I had not heard this.

[Hemingway]

ok i guess it will http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

but it will go down to 100 mil. it is 63 mil now. I think it is going to be hard to over pay

[Rick Robeys Return]

ok i guess it will http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

but it will go down to 100 mil. it is 63 mil now. I think it is going to be hard to over pay

Well, a drop of $25-$30 million between 17/18 and 18/19 is significant. From approx. $125 mill to $100 mill still represents a 20% reduction in the cap. That is huge.

[Granath]

ok i guess it will http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

but it will go down to 100 mil. it is 63 mil now. I think it is going to be hard to over pay

Well, a drop of $25-$30 million between 17/18 and 18/19 is significant. From approx. $125 mill to $100 mill still represents a 20% reduction in the cap. That is huge.

Except the linked article doesn't say that. It says from $108 to $102m. It says the LUXURY TAX level will drop from approx $127m to $124m.

There's no 20% drop projected.

[hwangjini_1]

ok i guess it will http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

but it will go down to 100 mil. it is 63 mil now. I think it is going to be hard to over pay

Well, a drop of $25-$30 million between 17/18 and 18/19 is significant. From approx. $125 mill to $100 mill still represents a 20% reduction in the cap. That is huge.

the warning being issued is if teams spend money on a a $125 cap team, then they will be hamstrung financially when the cap drops. easy to over spend on free agents now and regret it in 2018.

at least i think that is what the warning is meant to be. 

[BitterJim]

What's the point of raising the cap just to take it down in 2018?

The drop is projected based on the next CBA (so it's really just a guess)

The current CBA hasn't taken into account the new TV deal, although I have a hard time seeing the next CBA being even MORE owner friendly than the current one

[Eddie20]

yeah is it going to go down? I had not heard this.

Lowe recently said the same thing.

[BudweiserCeltic]

yeah is it going to go down? I had not heard this.

Lowe recently said the same thing.

Future CBA possibilities aside, players are already on record that they won't allow any salary cap smoothing.

[saltlover]

What's the point of raising the cap just to take it down in 2018?

The drop is projected based on the next CBA (so it's really just a guess)

The current CBA hasn't taken into account the new TV deal, although I have a hard time seeing the next CBA being even MORE owner friendly than the current one

This is incorrect.  The drop is based on the current CBA and the way the national TV deals are structured.  This was the major argument the NBA was trying to convince the players on a cap "smoothing" beginning this year, because it would erase the cap drops forecast in later seasons.  The players rejected for a few reasons, but one rationale is they expect some owners will overspend themselves in the next two summers, meaning they won't want the cap to decrease either.  Accordingly, during the next CBA negotiation, holding the cap level will be a negotiable point.

[hwangjini_1]

What's the point of raising the cap just to take it down in 2018?

The drop is projected based on the next CBA (so it's really just a guess)

The current CBA hasn't taken into account the new TV deal, although I have a hard time seeing the next CBA being even MORE owner friendly than the current one

This is incorrect.  The drop is based on the current CBA and the way the national TV deals are structured.  This was the major argument the NBA was trying to convince the players on a cap "smoothing" beginning this year, because it would erase the cap drops forecast in later seasons.  The players rejected for a few reasons, but one rationale is they expect some owners will overspend themselves in the next two summers, meaning they won't want the cap to decrease either.  Accordingly, during the next CBA negotiation, holding the cap level will be a negotiable point.

SL, as ever, to the rescue on budget questions. 

a well earned tp for you sir.