Poll

Is Melo too selfish?

Absolutely
1 (25%)
Yes, but that is exactly what we need
0 (0%)
Yes, but in CBS's system he could become more of a distributor
1 (25%)
No, he is just a great scorer
2 (50%)

Total Members Voted: 4

Author Topic: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?  (Read 1905 times)

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What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« on: December 14, 2015, 03:46:06 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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What if I told you that the narrative that says Melo is a selfish player isn't supported by statistics?

Don't get me wrong. He is no Magic Johnson. He is a scorer. That is the primary way he helps his team to win. And by the way, he is pretty good as a scorer.

But many advanced stats bear out that, at least this year, he is moving the ball with surprising unselfishness.

He averages 2.91 seconds per touch, which sounds like a lot, until you realize that that is less than Paul George (2.95), Gordon Hayward (3.1), Jimmy Butler (3.37), Demarr Derozan (3.6), who all play the same or a similar position. He is right behind Batum (2.59), Leonard (2.57), and Gallinari (2.55).

He averages 1.83 dribbles per touch, which sounds like a lot, until you realize that that is less than DeRozan (2.94), Butler (2.57), Hayward (2.37), George (2.24), Batum (2.09), and Leonard (1.9).

He averages a respectable 3.3 assists per game, which is ahead of Butler (3.2), Hayward (3.2), Leonard (2.7), Gallinari (2.5). DeRozan (4.1), George (4.2), and Batum (4.7) are all having career years for assists, but they are ahead of Melo.

However, assists don't show everything. The new player tracking stats keep track of a few other items that may indicate whether a player is unselfish.

His potential assists per game is 6.4, which shows how often he makes a pass for a teammate that shoots (regardless of the outcome of the shot). Batum (9.2), DeRozan (8.4), Butler (8.1), George (7.5), Hayward (7.4) are all ahead of him, but Melo is ahead of Gallinari (4.8 ) and Leonard (4.4).

I find that secondary assists can often be a good indication of a player who knows how to move the ball. He averages a decent .8, which is behind Leonard (1), Butler (1), Batum (.9), but is ahead of DeRozan (.8 ), Hayward (.6), and George (.6).

Also, the assist to pass percentage shows how often he is willing to pass the ball, even when he doesn't get an assist out of it. Higher may indicate a player is unwilling to pass unless he gets stats from it (although it also may indicate a players playmaking/passing ability). He averages 8.3, which is ahead of  DeRozan (10.5), Batum (10.2), and George (9.9), but is behind Butler (7.8 ), Leonard (7.6), and Hayward (7.3).

I'm not saying Melo is a great passer, but I am saying that he is as good a passer as the elite wings in the NBA. James is clearly the best. Batum is right after him but is not as much of a scoring threat. Melo is right there with George, Gallinari, Leonard, DeRozan, Hayward, and Butler.

The two main arguments that I hear against trading for Melo is that he is too old and that he is too selfish. I hope that I have demonstrated that he is at least as good of a passer as these other players and that he can fit in as a scorer in a ball movement offense.

His age is another thing. I think his game will age extremely well. I think he can be a go-to 20 ppg scorer over the next 4-5 years. I am a little scared of his shooting percentages this year, but I think they will regress to the mean.

If we can get him for 2 first round picks (or one Brooklin pick), Lee, and and 1-2 young prospects, I would be ecstatic.

Edit: And his usage rate is a high 29.2 (11th in the NBA). George is ahead of him (30.4), but DeRozan (27.2), Hayward (24), Leonard (24), Batum (22.7), Butler (22.5), and Gallinari (20.6) are all behind him.

His assist rate is 12.2. Batum (20.7), DeRozan (15.4), Butler (13.9), George (13.6), Gallinari (12.8 ), Leonard (12.5) are ahead of him.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2015, 04:02:08 PM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2015, 03:53:49 PM »

Offline CelticSince83

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It fits a narrative that people are desperate for.  I would have to know where those picks are in order to do this trade though.  Would hate to give up a dice roll at Simmons.  If we are talking 1 high pick say 5-8 and one late lottery or mid first, then yes, I'm in.  If you think about it that's basically Smart and Rozier, neither of whom move the needle. 

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2015, 03:59:30 PM »

Offline D Dub

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It would make a lot of sense for both teams. 

I'd start the conversation at Lee/Bradley plus their choice of either 1) the 17' and 18' Brooklyn picks, or 2) our 16' and 18' firsts plus 16' Dal & future Mem firsts

Would be willing to add the 16' Philly 2nd and Jordan Mickey if needed, but keep that 16' BK pick at all costs. 

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2015, 04:07:16 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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It fits a narrative that people are desperate for.  I would have to know where those picks are in order to do this trade though.  Would hate to give up a dice roll at Simmons.  If we are talking 1 high pick say 5-8 and one late lottery or mid first, then yes, I'm in.  If you think about it that's basically Smart and Rozier, neither of whom move the needle.

Agreed. The ideal situation is to give them up to 3 (or 4) first round draft picks that aren't the 16 Brooklyn pick.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2015, 04:15:07 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Melo is a better version of Paul Pierce in his prime.   He gets a bad rep for little reason. He's a winner.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2015, 04:41:51 PM »

Offline max215

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I don't love the idea of Melo's contract for four more years, but he fits a need, our only really huge need, and the Knicks will probably try to move him. Furthermore, they now have the Zinger to draw people to games and don't need Melo for his star appeal anymore. If we could get Melo without giving up the 2016 Nets Pick or Smart, I'm all for it.
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Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #6 on: December 14, 2015, 04:44:52 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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His defense at the rim has been great his year (in general players shoot 10% worse against him), and his rebounding has always been good. I really think that moving him to the 4, like Indy did with George, would make him an effective elite player for at least another 4-5 years.

Pair him with Johnson, Olynyk, or Mickey in stretches.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #7 on: December 14, 2015, 05:02:22 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Is this a joke? One of the most selfish player in this league

I just missed 7 straight shots in a row. It doesnt matter if the game is close. I need to 'go off'. Let me take 7 more and force my way out of this slump

Selfish as they come. Will take shots with three guys drapped over him or hand in his face. He is no Jordan

Overpayed and overrated.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2015, 05:30:30 PM »

Online Moranis

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Melo has the 3rd highest USG of all active players.  Only Wade and Bryant are higher.  But Wade and Bryant have much higher AST%.  Kobe is at 24.4 and Wade is at 31.7.  The other three active players with a USG% above 30 are Lebron, Westbrook, and Durant who have AST%'s of 34.5, 38.1, and 17.3 respectively.  In other words, Durant doesn't pass as much as Anthony, of course Durant has a TS% of 60.3 while Anthony is at 54.6 and Durant plays with Westbrook (whose 38.1% is 11th all time and 4th among active players - I'm sure it helps playing with Durant, but it also diminishes Durant's AST%). 

I'd be happy to acquire Anthony.  He is the exact type of scorer and go to player this team needs, but let's not make Anthony seem like something he is not.  He is a gunner.  He is a fairly efficient gunner, but he is still a gunner no less.  It is just this team needs a gunner.  It is the missing piece to the puzzle and what the offense needs to match the defense.
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Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2015, 05:31:01 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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sooo one season where he passes the ball and he's not selfish?

really though, this season I may actually take him if I could get 'em on the cheap. we need a scorer that's not undersized.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2015, 05:36:52 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Melo is overpaid and overrated. You guys want another "Rondo" defense disaster?

One weak wheel will screw up the ride

Anyways no way Danny will trade assets nor absorb his ridiculous salary

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2015, 05:40:02 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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Please note that I conceded the fact that he is no great passer.

My point is that he is in the middle of the pack passer as far as top-level wings go.

And it's not only this year. His career assists per game are ahead of George, Leonard, Butler, Gallinari, and DeRozan, but behind Batum, Durant, and Hayward.

He's a gunner. He's a scorer. He's no Magic Johnson. But that doesn't mean he can't pass. I even think in CBS offense his assist numbers would go up.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #12 on: December 14, 2015, 05:41:35 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I d say you was a lying or possibly blind in both eyes

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #13 on: December 14, 2015, 05:42:28 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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Melo has the 3rd highest USG of all active players.  Only Wade and Bryant are higher.  But Wade and Bryant have much higher AST%.  Kobe is at 24.4 and Wade is at 31.7.  The other three active players with a USG% above 30 are Lebron, Westbrook, and Durant who have AST%'s of 34.5, 38.1, and 17.3 respectively.  In other words, Durant doesn't pass as much as Anthony, of course Durant has a TS% of 60.3 while Anthony is at 54.6 and Durant plays with Westbrook (whose 38.1% is 11th all time and 4th among active players - I'm sure it helps playing with Durant, but it also diminishes Durant's AST%). 

I'd be happy to acquire Anthony.  He is the exact type of scorer and go to player this team needs, but let's not make Anthony seem like something he is not.  He is a gunner.  He is a fairly efficient gunner, but he is still a gunner no less.  It is just this team needs a gunner.  It is the missing piece to the puzzle and what the offense needs to match the defense.

Good stats. Thanks for providing solid arguments against my points. Point taken. I do think he can shift more and more into a distributor from the post if he played the 4 more.

Re: What if I told you that Melo isn't selfish?
« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2015, 05:49:23 PM »

Offline Smartacus

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Heard a great discussion about Melo from one of Zach Lowe's recent podcast where he interviews the beat writer from the Wall Street Journal, Chris Herring.

Herring was no apologist for Melo but he essentially says that Melo has proven time and time again that he can be an elite offensive player but he breaks his own rules at frustrating times. He'll play so well for stretches that make The Knicks look unstoppable but then he'll start holding the ball and forcing Iso shots in the 4th Quarter.

Team USA Melo has arguably been a top player of the past ten years over all the of the leagues(Olympics World Champs NBA NCAA Etc...) He shoot's threes at great efficency, makes quick and decisive decisions with the ball, plays for contact but is also looking to score and not just get fouled. That's the Melo I'd like on the Celtics.

What's wrong with New York Melo... I struggle with the question. Is he a victim of The Knicks poisoned culture or one of the the causes of it? If we traded for him could Brad Stevens bring out Team USA Melo... or would we get stuck with the worst contract in the league setting this rebuild back by years?