Pretend You're Colangelo... what do you do?

[LarBrd33]

Jeff has a nice article about philly that seems relevant to this topic:  http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/12/9/9878000/here-come-the-sixers-eventually

If a star becomes available, Boston probably loses a bidding war to Philly.

[Who]

Jeff has a nice article about philly that seems relevant to this topic:  http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/12/9/9878000/here-come-the-sixers-eventually

If a star becomes available, Boston probably loses a bidding war to Philly.

That is assuming such a star is willing to go to Philly.

Many stars choose to leave their teams because they aren't winning in their current team and want to leave to join a team that can do better.

They do not want to join the worst team in the league and become a babysitter to a bunch of kids who don't know how to play winning basketball.

Most stars will refuse to go to such a team and in doing so kill the trade (to Philly).

[Donoghus]

Celtics might lose a trade bidding war to Philly but I'm not quite sure they'd lose a FA bidding war for all the reasons Who mentioned above. 

[PhoSita]

Celtics might lose a trade bidding war to Philly but I'm not quite sure they'd lose a FA bidding war for all the reasons Who mentioned above.

Agreed.  Philly is going to have to rebuild trust with FAs.  Overpay for journeyman veterans and young role players.  Once they've shown a commitment to paying their players and putting a team on the floor that can actually compete, and they've got a couple of exciting star prospects on the roster, they will be able to make a case to significant free agents again.

[MBunge]

Okafor is a better trade piece than anything Boston has, other than all three Nets picks.

Here's the problem with Philly, however.  Let's say they offer up Okafor, Covington and the Lakers 1st for Cousins.  How much better does than actually make them if they miss on Simmons in the draft?  A core of Cousins, Noel, Saric and, let's say, Brandon Ingram is not exactly going to set the world on fire.  Playoffs?  Sure, but the kind of team worth throwing away three years of your basketball life?  That's the problem of stripping your roster of any reasonable talent.

I'm not counting Embiid in this because no one knows what's going to happen with him.

Mike

[celticsclay]

Although I think this thread is overkill I will bite
I would rectify two mistakes for the rest of the season.

1) I would make a trade for a veteran big that isn't
going to make a difference on my win total. I think the Lakers would
probably trade Bass for a second rounder at this point, and Bass could
put up some empty numbers. There really is no downside to this because
he is not going to win games, but does have the opportunity to work with
embiid and Okafor and potentially be a positive influence. Multiple people
in their organization say this needs to happen and I believe them.

2) If wroten and Marshall improve this, this could be a moot point,
but if they can not provide competent point guard play I would
get a backup point like others have mentioned that can at least get the
ball to okafor and Noel in reasonable positions. If this results in a few more wins,
you can also tinker with it, but players do get in bad habits (see antoine walker)
and I fear this could already be happening with Okafor.

3) I do try to get a win or two over the next few weeks to decrease media scrutinity.
This could just happen on its' own, but 50 point losses, being the lead on sportscenter,
that can really mess with some of the younger player's heads (and could lead to
further action from the NBA). They are not going to catch any team in wins besides potentially
the lakers, and they really can't control whether they catch the Lakers or not. I think
this probably was the biggest mistake of Hinkie is that he just tried too hard to be bad,
this year in particular. If this team has 4 wins right now they are in an identical position asides from being one up on the Lakers and none of this media circus is happening right now. Even signing a veterans third string point guard for a couple of ten day contracts while wroten and
marshall out could have solved this.

[colincb]

The Sixers are whale dung on the ocean floor among NBA execs, players, and agents as well as the media that Hinkie has either shun or misled. The Sixers have been effing over players on contracts, burning bridges with agents, and p-ing off other teams. They have a horrendous reputation and Colangelo will have to exert real power and be more than just a special adviser to overcome the damage Hinkie has done. The only people Hinkie has impressed is Harris who made a huge hiring mistake in making Hinkie a newbie GM based on a Powerpoint presentation and people for whom the "Process" is an epiphany that only they can understand.

The Sixers are going to have to overpay in any free agent bidding war and free agents who want to win aren't going there even for more money. Trades won't be so easy to pull off either because who wants to go there?

[moiso]

I would trade J.Okafor and J.Embiid and build my team around Nerlens Noel as franchise center.

You really think Noel is a franchise center?  I feel like that's like building your team around Serge Ibaka or Emeka Okafor, which don't seem like teams I'd expect anything more than a 1st round playoff exit from at best (unless you can successfully recreate the 2004 Pistons).

Nerlens Noel He averaged 13 points, 10 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 2.1 steals with 49% shooting and 66% from the line over the second half of last season. 

Nik Stauskas though he shot 42%/40%/85% over the second half of last season and after struggling with injures

At what point do we stop using last years 2nd half season results?  Philly's played 22 games this year, and post All-Star break last year was only 26 and 23 games for Noel and Stauskas.  I mean it's one thing coming in to the season or when we're only a few games in.  But 1/4 into the next season, when both players have gotten plenty of minutes, I think it's safe to assume those post All-Star game numbers weren't actually the start of a positive upward trend.

Reminds me of when Tony Allen had a stretch when he was regularly scoring over 20ppg and then got hurt.  People spent years waiting for Allen to return to that level.

[PhoSita]

This whole deal with Philly has me thinking that an interesting question to try an answer would be: where is the line between a team that is just all-out tanking and not trying versus a team that's bad but not egregiously so?

How many rotation spots can you give to guys with little to no NBA experience before it turns into a farce?  Assuming a 10 man rotation, is it 6? 7? 

How many experienced role players do you have to put into your rotation, and keep on your roster in general, to avoid having your team go off the rails because it's just really obviously not meant to compete at the NBA level?

[spikelovetheCelts]

The Sixers are whale dung on the ocean floor among NBA execs, players, and agents as well as the media that Hinkie has either shun or misled. The Sixers have been effing over players on contracts, burning bridges with agents, and p-ing off other teams. They have a horrendous reputation and Colangelo will have to exert real power and be more than just a special adviser to overcome the damage Hinkie has done. The only people Hinkie has impressed is Harris who made a huge hiring mistake in making Hinkie a newbie GM based on a Powerpoint presentation and people for whom the "Process" is an epiphany that only they can understand.

The Sixers are going to have to overpay in any free agent bidding war and free agents who want to win aren't going there even for more money. Trades won't be so easy to pull off either because who wants to go there?

How many Titles has this Jerry Colangelo won. Zero But Hinkle's plan may look good next year with a top 5 pick, Embrid and Dario coming over. Dion Waiters wants to play there so there is hope yet. LOL

[Moranis]

Just a point of perspective.  In the last three seasons Boston has had 19, 22, and 15 players play in at least one game.  Philly is at 23, 25, and 13.  Ainge has made it clear that he will trade anyone at anytime including the face of the franchise (Pierce).  Ainge has yet to sign a meaningful free agent.  For all the crap that Philly gets, shouldn't Ainge also get it.  Why would any meaningful free agent sign in Boston if you know at any moment you might get traded?  Heck even no trade clauses don't matter - see KG. 

[celticsclay]

Just a point of perspective.  In the last three seasons Boston has had 19, 22, and 15 players play in at least one game.  Philly is at 23, 25, and 13.  Ainge has made it clear that he will trade anyone at anytime including the face of the franchise (Pierce).  Ainge has yet to sign a meaningful free agent.  For all the crap that Philly gets, shouldn't Ainge also get it.  Why would any meaningful free agent sign in Boston if you know at any moment you might get traded?  Heck even no trade clauses don't matter - see KG.

If you don't get the difference, it probably isn't worth wasting time explaining it to you.

[celticsclay]

This whole deal with Philly has me thinking that an interesting question to try an answer would be: where is the line between a team that is just all-out tanking and not trying versus a team that's bad but not egregiously so?

How many rotation spots can you give to guys with little to no NBA experience before it turns into a farce?  Assuming a 10 man rotation, is it 6? 7? 

How many experienced role players do you have to put into your rotation, and keep on your roster in general, to avoid having your team go off the rails because it's just really obviously not meant to compete at the NBA level?

That is a big part of this, and one of the more interesting parts. I think there was kind of an unspoken rule (the NBA has them also) of what you are expected to do as a professional franchise.
I think winning 10-15% of your games is kind of something that is required because only a few teams have ever hovered below that for a significant amount of time. There are tiny tiny things you can like signing a veteran point guard to a couple of ten day contracts when both of your point guards get injured. That appeases the agents, players, and fans who get to see a less atrocious product.

If the 76ers have won 3 games like the Lakers a lot of this outrage is muted. Once they got to 0-8 they can make a tiny move or two to really try to make a difference and win one game to silence the critics. People inside and outside the organization have said how much winning just one is to silence the circus.

That is where a little reasoning and less analytics needs to come into play.

[indeedproceed]

If I'm Brian Colangelo, and I have a certain Machiavellian bent, I do nothing until the off-season. And I don't allow Hinkie to do much either.

Because next year was SUPPOSED to be the year it turned around. Next year is the year you start to really clear house of the assets you don't want to keep or can't flip, and next year is the year you finish 3 or 4 game below .500 and barely miss the playoffs. Much like the actual Magic this year.

And if Colangelo is a real jerk, he can just wait until the offseason and get Hinkie outta there then. And then Colangelo can get all the credit for the turnaround.

[PhoSita]

Just a point of perspective.  In the last three seasons Boston has had 19, 22, and 15 players play in at least one game.  Philly is at 23, 25, and 13.  Ainge has made it clear that he will trade anyone at anytime including the face of the franchise (Pierce).  Ainge has yet to sign a meaningful free agent.  For all the crap that Philly gets, shouldn't Ainge also get it.  Why would any meaningful free agent sign in Boston if you know at any moment you might get traded?  Heck even no trade clauses don't matter - see KG.

I've said for a while that there is a very large element of "Trust in the Process / GM" among Celtics fans, nearly as much as with Philly fans.  The main difference is that Ainge is placing his eggs mostly in the "Swing a big trade" basket, as opposed to the "Draft a handful of star prospects" basket, and the Celts are hanging around the middle of the league in the meantime as a result.

If Philly had been able to make a trade at the start of their rebuild process like the one Ainge did with Brooklyn, maybe they would have followed a path more similar to the Celts.