Rosy predictions from FiveThirtyEight

[loco_91]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/



Fivethirtyeight has the C's as the league's sixth-best team, and second in the East, with a projected 50 wins. Also of note: they project the Warriors to go 72-10.

[The One]

Wow's that great.

So to do that they have to go 38 - 23 the rest of the way.

Playing 62% ball the rest of the way?  Seems too hard.

[BitterJim]

They give us the fifth best chance to win the finals?  I have a hard time believing that

[LHR]

I saw this morning as well - another site had the Celts at 94% chance to make the playoffs.

[chambers]

Wow's that great.

So to do that they have to go 38 - 23 the rest of the way.

Playing 62% ball the rest of the way?  Seems too hard.

I dunno.
We have to win 6.5 games out of every 10.
I think 6 is pretty realistic and with some luck we could get to 6.5 (65%).
This team is built for the regular season with our depth.
Avery's shooting will cool down, but we'll also get Smart back.
We are an absolute beast defensively.

[saltlover]

They give us the fifth best chance to win the finals?  I have a hard time believing that

It's not that unbelievable when you think about it.  The top two teams, by a wide margin, are out West in the Warriors and Spurs.  So if you're a Western conference team who wins the title, you're likely going to need to beat both of those teams, without home-court advantage in either series.  The road to the finals is a lot easier in the East.  You have to go through Cleveland (which the computer is underselling slightly due to Kyrie's injury).  But after that, the Celtics looks as good as anyone else on some days.  Having a 3% chance to win it all isn't saying all that much, and a lot of other teams have a 2% chance.  Really, it's saying "how likely is this team to make the finals, and then how likely is it Stephen Curry breaks an ankle?"  It's not like the C's are seen as leaps and bounds ahead of the other East teams, and if we look at it next week should the upcoming games against Chicago, golden state, Charlotte, and Cleveland go poorly, we'll be back to 1% or less.  It's just crazy in the East, with 2 games separating 1st from 9th and out of the playoffs, even 1/4 into the season.  But when you look at point differential, which is often a good predictor of future performance, the Celtics grade out pretty well.  And when you look at other things like roster depth, the C's are okay there too, and are able to withstand an injury or two without missing too much over short bursts (which is why we're seen as comparatively likely to make it out of the East.)

[Evantime34]

All these projections heavily weight point differential, we have a great point differential on the season.

Our expected W-L based on point differential is 14-7, most rankings seem to rank the C's as if they were 14-7

[loco_91]

Yeah. I think FiveThirtyEight is also taking into account strength of schedule - C's have played a lot of good teams

[fairweatherfan]

Yeah. I think FiveThirtyEight is also taking into account strength of schedule - C's have played a lot of good teams

Yeah, we've got 9 losses, but all but two are to teams with better records, and one of those two was Orlando on the road, who's .5 games behind us.  Our only bad loss was the Brooklyn game, and we have several good wins.  And despite the fairly tough schedule our point differential is best in the East and 3rd in the league.  We're playing modestly better than our record would suggest, and 50 wins doesn't seem out of the question anymore if we can keep it up.

[nickagneta]

As. I have always noted on this site, defense and rebounding wins championships. We only have one guy on the team that's a good rebounder. That's a problem. But this defense is extraordinary against most NBA teams. That could translate to 50 wins but. I think that's just a bit too generous. 46-47 wins sounds about right, barring significant injuries.

But, this team is a much better rebounder and some improved three point shooting away from being a team no one in the East is going to want to play in the playoffs.

[loco_91]

As. I have always noted on this site, defense and rebounding wins championships. We only have one guy on the team that's a good rebounder. That's a problem. But this defense is extraordinary against most NBA teams. That could translate to 50 wins but. I think that's just a bit too generous. 46-47 wins sounds about right, barring significant injuries.

But, this team is a much better rebounder and some improved three point shooting away from being a team no one in the East is going to want to play in the playoffs.

46-47 seems reasonable to me too. There's plenty of uncertainty in these estimates. I do think it's clear that 42 wins was a silly o/u, and anybody who bet the over is feeling great right now.

[LooseCannon]

  Having a 3% chance to win it all isn't saying all that much, and a lot of other teams have a 2% chance. 

Right now, there are only seven teams that 538 gives at least a 2% chance to.  What's insane is that between the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder, they give a minimum of a 75% chance that the champ will come from the West.

[Quetzalcoatl]

They also predict Brooklyn to finish 3rd worst in the League with only 23 wins 

[PhoSita]

Top shelf defense is a good recipe for winning regular season games and making it into the playoffs.  I think we've seen plenty of examples, even just in the last few teams, of teams that get there on the strength of defense and general competency, only to fold when it turns out -- surprise! -- the lack of  of a dangerous offense means they can't cut it against talented opponents.

I think the Celts are in that boat, still.

We may also see in the next year or two that the defense will have to take a step back or two in order to integrate more talented offensive options (similar to what the Bucks are going through this year).

I agree with Nick that 45 or so wins is probably a better estimate for where the team will end up, given what we've seen so far.  I wonder if the team won't regress to the mean just a little bit defensively, however.  Top 5 in defense is a huge leap for this team after finishing last year outside the top 10.  But maybe starting Jae Crowder full time and adding Amir Johnson to the rotation is making that big a difference?  We'll see.

[Chris22]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/



Fivethirtyeight has the C's as the league's sixth-best team, and second in the East, with a projected 50 wins. Also of note: they project the Warriors to go 72-10.

I picked us to win 50 games before the season started.