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Individual C's Career Predictions
« on: December 07, 2015, 04:06:25 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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No one beats Father Time:

Amir Johnson
David Lee

Assured Greatness (with disclaimers):

Sully (must lose and keep off weight)
Bradley (must stay healthy, might be best player on the roster)
Smart (must improve at shooting or is a different form of Rondo)
Crowder (same as Smart)
Olynyk (must assert himself, must learn to add a little bit of arrogance)
Thomas (must become a consistent menace on defense like Pressey kind of developed basketball mosquito skills)

You don't want too many players like Smart and Crowder who tend to disappear or worse on offense.

Better than average scrubs (NBA journeymen - The Scalabrine type ceiling):

Turner
Zeller
Jerebko

I won't go near the rookies or James Young. It would be pure speculation. Young, however, is dangerously approaching Fab Melo out of the league status.

The future looks good. The present looks good, too.

Fasten your seat belts as we get ready to become a top four Eastern Conference playoff team this year. This one. Not next.

Other people can write their thousands of boring words and even somehow bring in the words tanking and treadmill. I'd rather enjoy the games and not overthink it. We are a top five team in regards to the future. I don't understand the negativity. It feels like I am following a different team than the one described by a lot of Celtics fans on this board.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2015, 09:01:11 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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No one beats Father Time:

Amir Johnson
David Lee

Assured Greatness (with disclaimers):

Sully (must lose and keep off weight)
Bradley (must stay healthy, might be best player on the roster)
Smart (must improve at shooting or is a different form of Rondo)
Crowder (same as Smart)
Olynyk (must assert himself, must learn to add a little bit of arrogance)
Thomas (must become a consistent menace on defense like Pressey kind of developed basketball mosquito skills)

You don't want too many players like Smart and Crowder who tend to disappear or worse on offense.

Better than average scrubs (NBA journeymen - The Scalabrine type ceiling):

Turner
Zeller
Jerebko

I won't go near the rookies or James Young. It would be pure speculation. Young, however, is dangerously approaching Fab Melo out of the league status.

The future looks good. The present looks good, too.

Fasten your seat belts as we get ready to become a top four Eastern Conference playoff team this year. This one. Not next.

Other people can write their thousands of boring words and even somehow bring in the words tanking and treadmill. I'd rather enjoy the games and not overthink it. We are a top five team in regards to the future. I don't understand the negativity. It feels like I am following a different team than the one described by a lot of Celtics fans on this board.

haha I actually don't mind this analysis, though I do have a couple of notes I'd like to add:

1) Can we change "Greatness" to "goodness"?  To me 'greatness' suggests All-Star talent, and i don't seen anybody (bar maybe Bradley / Thomas) on that list having that type of potential.

2) I would put Johnson and Lee in the 'journeyman' category.  Both have have been quietly productive this year (they both have quite nice per-36 stats) but just haven't had enough minutes to make the box score stand out.  I think they will both be getting NBA minutes for at least another 2 or 3 years.

My faith in Sully ever becoming a special player is pretty much completely gone right now.  This year he has well and truly proven that he is what he is, and that (outside of rebounding) there is no part of Sully's game that will ever be more than 'a bit above average'. 

This year Sully has played less minutes (helps conditioning) and is playing in a contract year (helps motivation) - if he can't break out this year, then he never will.  I'm willing to give him until the All-Star break to prove me wrong, after that my faith will be 100% gone (along with his value as a trade asset, as the rest of the league starts to see things as I am seeing them  now).
« Last Edit: December 07, 2015, 09:09:05 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2015, 09:44:08 PM »

Offline NHHillbilly

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More fun for me is asking the question, what is a player's ceiling if he gets his act together and surprises us.  In my business, we call it "shots on goal".  Like hockey shots, you expect most of them not to go in, but if you take no shots, you never score.  A rebound or a lucky bounce is just as common as beating the goalie.  I would call a 1-3 pick a breakaway shot on goal.  You then expect to score, but sometimes the goalie, or the post takes it away.  Other scores come from shots from a power play:  lottery picks.  But some goals come from unexpected shots.

Maybe one of these guys can surprise us.  I think Reggie Lewis was a surprise:  who would of though a really quick first step could make you an allstar?  I think Chauncey Billups was a surprise. 

Jared Sullinger  :  absolute best ceiling would be the next Wes Unseld.  You can be short and great:  it is possible!

Evan Turner :  ceiling would be a Chauncey Billups.  If like Chauncey he turns on the focus and starts making the big shots.

Marcus Smart :  ceiling is Gary Paton, the glove.

Kelly Olynyck :  ceiling is Dirk Nowitzi  If Kelly could put on some meanness and toughness and keep improving his matchup defying 7 footer outside shots.  Kelly needs to know when the guy rushing out to cover has no chance of blocking his shot. 

Avery Bradley :  is near his ceiling now, but with an infusion of basketball IQ and better handle he could be Dennis Johnson quality.

Crowder :  I think he is near his ceiling now:  a glue type guy.   a healthy Eric Williams.

I agree that Amir and David Lee are pretty much developed and close to the down side of their careers. 

Isaiah Thomas  : ceiling is his namesake predecessor, the first Isiah Thomas.

I agree with CelticPride2016 and Danny Ainge:  I like our guys.  When I look at a lot of rosters of near 500 teams, I like ours best.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2015, 09:56:43 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Jared Sullinger  :  absolute best ceiling would be the next Wes Unseld.  You can be short and great:  it is possible!

LOL

Most all the guys in this thread showed more at an early age than our guys.  Four years in and Unseld was averaging 17 RPG and 13 PPG.  Unseld also went downhill from there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/u/unselwe01.html

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2015, 03:01:59 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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haha I actually don't mind this analysis, though I do have a couple of notes I'd like to add:

1) Can we change "Greatness" to "goodness"?  To me 'greatness' suggests All-Star talent, and i don't seen anybody (bar maybe Bradley / Thomas) on that list having that type of potential.

Thanks for the feedback. I was worried no one would respond.

I am a homer, possibly the equivalent of Tommy Heinsohn as a fan.

Great or very good are just words. I understand what you are saying, though. One can't simply snap their fingers and then a good player is transformed into deserving the same recognition as the best of the best.

I would say that Bradley and Sullinger are the closest to becoming 100% finished products and at a minimum approaching borderline all-star status.

Quote
2) I would put Johnson and Lee in the 'journeyman' category.  Both have have been quietly productive this year (they both have quite nice per-36 stats) but just haven't had enough minutes to make the box score stand out.  I think they will both be getting NBA minutes for at least another 2 or 3 years.

I like Johnson. He's not ancient and is consistent on both sides of the court. But I think he is older than his age. Like when we got KG. It's like with pitchers in baseball and stamina or even automobiles and computers. Everything has a shelf life.

To me an NBA journeyman is one who is too good to not get a contract, but not good enough to be a starter. Lee and Johnson are proven starters. Unfortunately, Lee looks like he has lost a step or two. He has a couple years on Johnson, so I assume he is that much closer to retirement.

Quote
My faith in Sully ever becoming a special player is pretty much completely gone right now.  This year he has well and truly proven that he is what he is, and that (outside of rebounding) there is no part of Sully's game that will ever be more than 'a bit above average'. 

This year Sully has played less minutes (helps conditioning) and is playing in a contract year (helps motivation) - if he can't break out this year, then he never will.  I'm willing to give him until the All-Star break to prove me wrong, after that my faith will be 100% gone (along with his value as a trade asset, as the rest of the league starts to see things as I am seeing them  now).

Sully is definitely a big question mark. I do not have complete faith he will ever get into ideal shape. I remember his or his dad's excuse for extra pounds in previous years, that it enables Sully to compete as a center.

I don't see Sully lasting too long as a top notch prospect unless he gets into shape and becomes a power forward who might be able to help a bit covering centers. Sully has an abundance of natural talent that cannot be taught. He is a natural. But 99% of the league is comprised of top notch athletes who may or may not have what comes easily to Sullinger.

It will be a leap of faith for him to drop the idea of being a center with extra pounds, but I believe that is what he must do if he ever wants to reach his full potential.

He can be the smartest player on the court, but if he doesn't have the physical tools to do what the mind wants, he will always remain a big what if question.

I disagree that Sully is a one trick pony with rebounding. I think he is very clever with passing. He is playing much better on defense even if he has only lost 15 of the 50 pounds he needed to lose. I also think you may be underrating his skills on offense.

He is the rich man's Big Baby who was considered a top five pick if his back didn't need surgery.

I think he's taller than Davis. I think he has way better skills than Big Baby. Baby was effective at times going up against Howard and Shaq, but with the league changing and huge centers becoming more obsolete by the year, Sully needs to get into power forward shape.

Otherwise, I don't see Sully having more than another five years of decent play in him if he refuses to become anything more than an overweight, short center.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2015, 03:40:20 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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More fun for me is asking the question, what is a player's ceiling if he gets his act together and surprises us.  In my business, we call it "shots on goal".

I also like using analogies. So why not hockey?

Quote
Maybe one of these guys can surprise us.  I think Reggie Lewis was a surprise:  who would of though a really quick first step could make you an allstar?  I think Chauncey Billups was a surprise.

Yes, this is what I was trying to say. Good to great players do not always have to be found at the top of the draft. With college players leaving so early nowadays, teams are more and more ending up with the James Youngs of the world or Cleveland when they ended up with Bennett. The draft has become more and more of a crapshoot.

Lewis and Billups are great examples. Even a guy like Dana Barros forced his way into the NBA scrub versus good player conversation, as in maybe the initial consensus was wrong. Andrew Toney, anyone? Didn't he come out of nowhere? Okay, I see Toney was picked 8th. For some reason I always thought he was the big surprise steal of his era. Pierce and Dirk weren't drafted at the top of their class. There have also been a number of great players emerging from the second round. Marc Gasol and Ginobili, for two examples?

No one predicted Bradley would emerge like he has. Or that guy Leonard on the Spurs.
Quote
Jared Sullinger  :  absolute best ceiling would be the next Wes Unseld.  You can be short and great:  it is possible!

Maybe that is something I agree with. I just looked at some images of Unseld and he didn't seem overweight like Sully. Maybe Sullinger is afraid if he loses the weight, he will damage his chances of becoming a top rotation player.

I think this is the best Turner will ever be. He has definitely improved. I think that makes his ceiling as a top guy off the bench on a good team. Perhaps a journeyman who finds himself in the right situation. He is definitely not the same scrub whose game took a beating from being picked #2 overall and ending up on a dysfunctional team.

Smart obviously has the best chance of becoming greatness. But he needs to improve his outside shooting. He does seem to have potential as a point guard. His drives to the hoop earlier in the season looked pretty, pretty good. Smart is halfway to becoming a hall-of-fame player. He must improve his shooting, however, or his ceiling unfortunately is a rich man's Tony Allen. He has to improve at being a pg or sg. Sure, he can end up as a hybrid. He can eventually be hidden on offense like the team hides Isaiah flaws on defense. But that wouldn't be greatness.

Olynyk is another question mark. I do see his glass potential as half full.

Bradley turned a definite corner with ball handling and driving to the hoop. His defense is back. He is shooting the ball extremely well and can get those off it seems any time he gets just a little separation. I think Bradley is our best player. Sully was our best player about a month ago. I think Bradley has moved ahead of him on the Celtics' individual power rankings.

I agree that Crowder is pretty much at his ceiling. He can tighten his shooting with practice. He must.

One surprise to me is how hard Isaiah Thomas plays on defense. If only Rondo had tried that much, he might still be on the team.

It was good to see Isaiah finally put together an efficient shooting night. I have been worried about that. He too needs to hit the practice court like a Ray Allen and keep at it. If he can hit the outside jumper at an above average rate and continue to be pesky on defense, I also am not afraid to give him the high ceiling you are.

Quote
I agree with CelticPride2016 and Danny Ainge:  I like our guys.  When I look at a lot of rosters of near 500 teams, I like ours best.

Yes, I agree back at you. Whenever I read comments that such and such a roster is much better than ours, I cringe. Orlando? Philly? I could see folks being envious of maybe Milwaukee and Minnesota, but that's about it. Indiana? Chicago? Maybe those teams will end up better than us this year, but that will be fool's gold for them in comparison to our roster and future Brooklyn picks.

The grass only seems to be greener elsewhere? How can other teams have greener grass when the Celtics are defined by the color green?

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2015, 03:47:01 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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What about Tom Brady? Wasn't he a sixth round pick and is now in the debate for who is the greatest qb of all time?

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2015, 03:57:48 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Jared Sullinger  :  absolute best ceiling would be the next Wes Unseld.  You can be short and great:  it is possible!

LOL

Most all the guys in this thread showed more at an early age than our guys.  Four years in and Unseld was averaging 17 RPG and 13 PPG.  Unseld also went downhill from there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/u/unselwe01.html

You make a good point. I thought Unseld had a much better career than his stats say. I would put Sullinger's ceiling above Unseld. Wes didn't seem to score much and his free throw percentage looks pretty, pretty bad. (My Larry David impersonation)

Maybe Unseld was a one-trick pony with rebounding? Who was that guy we got for Mercer? I just googled. His name was Danny Fortson. I remember that guy a bit. He was also a beast at getting rebounds.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2015, 10:03:28 PM »

Offline NHHillbilly

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And really Pierce was a surprise:  he slipped in the draft, people thought Antoine Walker was better (except Antoine knew by Soophomore season that Pierce was the best basketball player on the team -- a very rare humble statement by an NBA star).
But later, Pierce definitely outplayed Kobe in the finals:  he scored more and he did a lot of defense directly on Kobe. 
Even Shaq was surprised by Pierce:  he did not wow with any physical talent:  he was always too slow, dunked, but never posterized people, shot well but not like Bird or anywhere near Curry, but somehow he played better basketball.
People who want to play fantasy sports want the high draft pick:  a real team needs to find guys like Pierce.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2015, 07:30:22 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Antoine Walker was a true Celtic with how he approached the game. If he had only not taken all those threes, he'd probably be more respected.

I saw that Pierce game early in his career and then Shaq nicknamed him The Truth.

Pierce is somehow underrated. I think Pierce was a hall-of-fame player. Maybe that is what everyone thinks. You can't ask for more out of a draft pick with what Pierce did.

Hopefully when the Celtics are great again it will last longer than what we got out of KG. We got only one year of prime time KG.

I don't want to jinx them, but a couple home wins here against Chicago and Golden State would be incredible. The Celtics would have to be looked at as being a top team. It must be because of Brad Stevens. He must be worth ten to fifteen extra wins a year.

We have a bunch of guys who might become great, mostly our guards. It'd be nice if this is truly a 50 win team, already. Then add in the Brooklyn pick, we are on a very nice trajectory.

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2015, 07:52:27 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Antoine Walker was a true Celtic with how he approached the game. If he had only not taken all those threes, he'd probably be more respected.

Some of the best sarcasm I have ever seen on the board.  Brilliant!

Re: Individual C's Career Predictions
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2015, 12:15:55 AM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Antoine Walker was a true Celtic with how he approached the game. If he had only not taken all those threes, he'd probably be more respected.

Some of the best sarcasm I have ever seen on the board.  Brilliant!

The poster above mentioned how Antoine was unselfish and did all he could to promote Paul's game.

Maybe reading comprehension is something you can work on.