Is Jae Crowder a starting small forward?

[Monkhouse]

Many people believed that Crowder would either take the first leap to becoming a poor man's Demarre Caroll, or at least be a serviceable starting SF.

I disagreed, considering his lack of a 3 pt shot, and I still stand by that sentiment, but hopefully he at least outlives my expectations. 25% 3pt on 3.5 3PA is pretty darn bad, but at least Crowder is wrecking havoc on the defensive end.

Do you guys still believe he's our starting SF, or are we simply waiting for the draft to come in to choose our future stud?

Crowder is probably one of the best wing defenders in the league.  He can defend smaller guards because of this athleticism, and bigger forwards because of his strength.  This by definition makes him a starting SF:  you want that defense on the court against the teams' best units.

Not all starting NBA players have to be great or even good offensively.

Eh, I definitely disagree with that. I think the main difference between Crowder and most starting SF is that they at least have some offensive firepower, whereas Crowder doesn't seem to have great ball handling, shooting, or offensive versatility. Even Iggy was a serviceable scorer in terms of play making, finisher, or even worked on having a competent 3 pt shot. 

[PhoSita]

Well, I think that 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 ast, 3 stl is pretty good for a starting small forward.

At the same time, shooting 38% from the field and 25% from three is obviously not good enough.


I think that if Crowder keeps his starting spot over the whole season, he'll end up around the numbers he's got right now, only closer to 40 / 30 / 75 shooting.

He's definitely not an ideal starting option at small forward.  I like him a lot as a backup.  If we had better players in the starting lineup next to him, his limitations wouldn't be a big deal, though.

[PhoSita]

Who do you think Ainge is targeting in the draft, or free agency?

Dunno about Ainge, since he seems to think different on these things than I do, but Nic Batum seems to make sense as a free agent target.  Too soon to say on the draft.

[crimson_stallion]

Ainge just voted with the team's checkbook, and that tells us he's a borderline starter/valuable reserve. That sounds about right to me. He is still young enough to expect he should improve a bit more too.

The checkbook says bench player.

This.

Crowder is making about $7m a year on his deal, for the next 5 years.

When the cap rises substantially next year, that equates to the equivalent of about $5M on last years cap, or about mid-level exception money.

In the big 3 era, we paid MLE money to guys like Mickael Pietrus, Chris Wilcox and (an old and declining) Jason Terry.

Crowder is basically earning about on par with what we paid Chris Wilcox, and significantly less than what we paid Brandon Bass - relative to the salary cap of the time.  That should give you a pretty good  indication of what caliber of player Crowder is - clearly a bench player, who we are starting at SF (I suspect, not for long) purely because we hare horribly weak at that position.

The fact that Crowder is already 25, and that his "MLE-range" contract is locked in for the next 5 years, should also give you a strong indication of what type of potential Danny things he has.  It basically tells you that he doesn't expect Crowder to be anything more than a MLE guy anytime between now and the age of 30.

The fact that Crowder locked in to that contract so quickly and eagerly tells you that he doesn't see himself become much more than that either, because if he felt he could ever be a "good starter" then he'd be holding out to try and get a bigger deal in a couple of years.

So yes, simply put Crowder is a pure role player, and a very clear bench player.  He's got a very focussed role, where his sole purpose is to bring energy/hustle, to make it hard on opponents with his tough on-ball defense, and to set a tone with his physicality.  He's also a pretty good rebounder (which most don't recognise) but that's really about all he offers.

Crowder is a mediocre off-ball defender (hence why his advanced defensive stats are only ever average at best) and a poor shooter, who's only real offensive talent is his ability to use his strength / athleticism to charge into the lane...which is not often all that effective, but occasionally works out well.

Evan Turner is a far better player, and right now he might even be a better defender - he's not as 'in your face' as Crowder with the physicality, but he's pretty solid both on and off the ball this year, so he is more of an all rounder on D.

I would be very surprised if Turner hasn't replaced Crowder as the starting SF by about midway through the year.   There is really nothing Crowder does better than Turner, aside from physical on ball D.

[crimson_stallion]

Who do you think Ainge is targeting in the draft, or free agency?

Dunno about Ainge, since he seems to think different on these things than I do, but Nic Batum seems to make sense as a free agent target.  Too soon to say on the draft.

I assume he'll look at any and all avenues.

From what I've seen, Danny isn't one to but all of his eggs in one basket.  He likes to have every a hand in every pot, to maximise his changes.  I imagine he'll look at the Draft, at Free Agency and at potential trades. He seems to be in pretty decent shape on all three counts right now.

[Denis998]

Read an ESPN article saying Crowder is the 14th best starting SF based on his advanced stats.

[PhoSita]

Evan Turner is a far better player

So, based on your logic, one would imagine Evan Turner will be making a lot more money than Jae Crowder after this season, right?

When it comes down to it, I suspect Turner will have trouble getting $7 million a year, and will greater difficulty getting a long term commitment from a team.


I agree with the rest of your post, though.  Jae Crowder is out of his depth as a starter, but he's a nice guy to have on your roster for hustle, toughness, energy, and versatility.  He's being paid accordingly.

[BleedGreen1989]

Evan Turner is a far better player

So, based on your logic, one would imagine Evan Turner will be making a lot more money than Jae Crowder after this season, right?

When it comes down to it, I suspect Turner will have trouble getting $7 million a year, and will greater difficulty getting a long term commitment from a team.


I agree with the rest of your post, though.  Jae Crowder is out of his depth as a starter, but he's a nice guy to have on your roster for hustle, toughness, energy, and versatility.  He's being paid accordingly.

Yeah, his contract is fine, his role is not. He's not a starter on a good team but I'd take him on my bench on that contract any day.

[crimson_stallion]

Evan Turner is a far better player

So, based on your logic, one would imagine Evan Turner will be making a lot more money than Jae Crowder after this season, right?

When it comes down to it, I suspect Turner will have trouble getting $7 million a year, and will greater difficulty getting a long term commitment from a team.


I agree with the rest of your post, though.  Jae Crowder is out of his depth as a starter, but he's a nice guy to have on your roster for hustle, toughness, energy, and versatility.  He's being paid accordingly.

Danny signed Evan Turner for $3.5M a year when the cap was $63M, and at the absolute very lowest point of Turner's NBA career (his stint with the Pacers made him look like a locker room cancer who had "BUST" written all over him).

Since then Turner has recorded multiple triple doubles, had some some huge clutch performances for a team that eventually made the playoffs, has made significant improvements on the defensive end, and has (thanks to Brad Stevens) shown the world he has legitimate PG skills (which works wonders for his perceived versatility). 

When Evan Turner's contact expires next year the cap projects to rise to $89M.  If you look at his current $3.5M deal and adjust by +41% (to match the projected salary cap increase) you can say that his current deal would be the equivalent of about $5M a year under the new cap.

Considering he signed that deal at the absolute lowest point of his career, and how far he has progressed as a player since then, I don't have any trouble at all believing that Evan Turner would be able to get a deal in the $7M range with his eyes closed once his contact expires after this season. 

Lets not forget we live in a world where Omer Asik is making $9M, Wesley Matthews is making $16M, Chandler Parsons is making $15M, Tristan Thompson is making $14M, and Iman Shumpert is making $9M.

In today's NBA $7M for Evan Turner is the bargain of the century.
 

[PhoSita]

Lets not forget we live in a world where Omer Asik is making $9M, Wesley Matthews is making $16M, Chandler Parsons is making $15M, Tristan Thompson is making $14M, and Iman Shumpert is making $9M.

In today's NBA $7M for Evan Turner is the bargain of the century.
 

We also live in a world where you'd better be able to shoot the three if you're not a really excellent rebounder or slasher.


Evan Turner's role in the modern league is to be a 6'7'' backup point guard.  He's a more talented player than Crowder, but his skillset is less versatile and fungible because he doesn't have the same 3-and-D potential that Crowder has.  Crowder could play on any team in the league and help them win.  Turner needs to be somewhere that will give him the keys to the offense 20 minutes a night.

I expect he'll be an MLE player moving forward on 1 and 2 year deals.  In a league where Jeremy Lin can has trouble getting more than a couple million a year, even with the cap set to raise soon, how much can Turner really expect on the open market?

[Eddie20]

Yes, Crowder brings enough to the table to be a starting SF. However, on our team, we need more scoring/shot creators in the starting lineup, so he'd be better suited as a wing off the bench. That could change though, as he continues to improve, and players like Smart become better offensive players. His game is very reminescent of Artest's (minus the antics) and he was a starter for a couple of title teams.

[crimson_stallion]

Lets not forget we live in a world where Omer Asik is making $9M, Wesley Matthews is making $16M, Chandler Parsons is making $15M, Tristan Thompson is making $14M, and Iman Shumpert is making $9M.

In today's NBA $7M for Evan Turner is the bargain of the century.
 

We also live in a world where you'd better be able to shoot the three if you're not a really excellent rebounder or slasher.

Funny you say that, because Turner is both an excellent rebounder and an excellent slasher.

For his career he's averaged just under 7 rebounds Per 36 minutes (excellent for a Small Forward) and his ability to 'slash' to the basket is a big reason why he's had such a positive impact on our team offensively. 

Evan Turner's role in the modern league is to be a 6'7'' backup point guard.  He's a more talented player than Crowder, but his skillset is less versatile and fungible because he doesn't have the same 3-and-D potential that Crowder has.  Crowder could play on any team in the league and help them win.  Turner needs to be somewhere that will give him the keys to the offense 20 minutes a night.

That is completely untrue.

Crowder had a Defensive RPM of -1.07 last year, and Turner's was -1.37, practically identical. 

Crowder is great on-ball defender and a horrendous off-ball defender, while Turner is average at both. 

In the end it pretty much evens out.

Also Crowder has been no less horrendous as a three point shooter than Turner has as a Celtic, so there's nothing there either.

Also to suggest Crowder is more versatile - wow.  If there is one thing Crowder doesn't have it's versatility.  The only thing he does productively is play good on-ball D, and rebound pretty well for his position.  At everything else he is woefully mediocre at best.

Turner has the ability to play three positions comfortably, he can score, he can rebound, he can pass, he can handle the ball, and he can defend.  If a guy gets injured, he is a virtual swiss army knife due to his ability to fill in at such a variety of positions and roles.

Turner's versatility is the very reason why he was able to put up so many triple doubles last year.  Crowder will probably never record a triple double in his life.

Turner also has (IMO) higher upside.  He is basically only a three point shot away from being a "do everything" player, and if he developed that shot he could develop into pretty special player.  Not an All-Star, but a very good starter.  He also is more likely to develop that shot since he already has a good midrange jump shot, while Crowder really doesn't have a reliable jumper from anywhere.

Turner has the potential to be a 14 / 6 / 5 guy as a starter. If he developed a three point shot, he would easily have 17/6/5 potential.  Crowder has the potential to be a 13/7/3 guy at best. 

As I always say I really like Crowder, but Turner does far more for this team and is way more valuable.  Just look at the +/- stats for this season.  Turner (along with Olynyk) is pretty much leading the way.  The impact he has on the court is huge for us.

[crimson_stallion]

Yes, Crowder brings enough to the table to be a starting SF. However, on our team, we need more scoring/shot creators in the starting lineup, so he'd be better suited as a wing off the bench. That could change though, as he continues to improve, and players like Smart become better offensive players. His game is very reminescent of Artest's (minus the antics) and he was a starter for a couple of title teams.

Crowder's game is not like Artest's at all. 

The one similarity they have is that they used their physicality to impact the game. Aside from that, very different players. 

Artest was actually a pretty good offensive player.  He averaged over 15 PPG for something like 5 seasons in a row.  He was also a pretty good three point shooter (34% for his carrer and shot over 38% a couple of times).

Also Artest's Defense was on a whole other level compared to Crowder's.  For years he was in the DPOTY discussion.  Crowder is a pretty good defensive player, but nowhere near that good. 

If you want to find an old school player who is similar to Crowder, then it'll be somebody that most people haven't heard of - because somebody of Crowder's ability will not be remembered by many 10 years down the track. Maybe a poor man's Anthony Mason?

[Walter Moss]

Absolutely he is! Let's give him a credit for his game start of the season.Leader of NBAin steals category per game btw)

[Fafnir]

Not until he develops a better shot or at least scoring efficiency, until then he's a more of a bench player. But like many teams in the NBA sometimes you start a "bench" player because he's the best player you hve for that position.