If you believe Boston + other 2014 lotto teams will make East's top 8...

[TheFlex]

Obviously this doesn't take into account the higher potential some teams have to make a significant trade midseason, like Boston, vs. other teams, like Miami, and I have to guess which teams will be inflicted with the injury bug

If you're like me and believe the Celts will make the playoffs and 2014 lotto teams like Detroit, Miami, and Indiana will make it (New York, Charlotte and Orlando also deserve a role in this conversation), who falls out of the picture? Here's how I see it:

Washington falls out

They lost Pierce, will see growth in Porter (at least defensible as a starter by the season's end) and Beal (could make an All-Star push) but not enough to make up for losing Pierce, will see regression in Gortat and Nene, and Webster won't ever make the necessary contribution because of health. They'll still win a fair amount of games, but just miss the playoffs. Should totally shake up the race for Durant in the 2016 summer. Dare I say Boston emerges as a candidate?

Milwaukee falls out

The Bucks have a bit of an awkward growth spurt figuring out how to space MCW, Giannis and Monroe at the same time. Middleton doesn't improve much but doesn't regress at all. Jabari has a nice sophomore season but not a phenomenal one. Their division is extremely competitive (CLE/CHI/DET/IND). Consensus on Jabari is that he still can eventually be dominant, but was unfortunate to have to regain game shape after his ACL tear while the Bucks fought for a playoff spot in a much tougher East. They miss the playoffs but only by a handful of games; if their management is patient, they could have a real monster in this team.

Brooklyn falls out

And gives us a top 3 pick in the process.

FINAL STANDINGS

Detroit
Atlanta
Cleveland
Toronto
Miami
Chicago
Indiana
Boston

----------
 CUTOFF
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Washington
Milwaukee
New York
Charlotte
Orlando
Philadelphia
Brooklyn

All 8 playoff teams finish above .500; Washington + Milwaukee + NYK make a respectable push for a playoff spot (36-41 wins); Charlotte + Orlando look promising until the All-Star break, at which point they start to tank after Charlotte suffers injuries and Orlando's youth shows; Brooklyn and Philadelphia take an absolute pounding vs. the rest of the conference in order to balance out an increase in total wins from teams in the 4-12 seed range. The East suddenly looks pretty tough.

[Granath]

I think the Bucks have too much talent to miss the playoffs in the East. Any team in the East that can put Giannis, Monroe, Parker, Khris Middleton and MCW on the court at the same time is simply too good to miss. You could easily argue that Giannis, Monroe and Parker are better than any player on the Celtics' squad.

Nor can I see Detroit being the top squad in the East. There's simply not enough talent. They started off 5-1 but let's not go hog-wild - there's always a team that starts hot and doesn't make the playoffs. The real meat of their schedule seems to come later in the season. As you said, they also play in a very competitive division.

Barring injuries, Cleveland, Atlanta, Toronto, Mil and Chicago should all be shoo-ins (though that Bulls team seems to have no identity at this point). So I see Indy, Detroit, Boston, Miami and Washington fighting for those final three playoff spots. Of that group, I have no idea who will and won't make it. My guess is Washington (due to the loss of PP) and Miami (age, injuries) fall out of that bunch, but it could just as easily be the Celtics who don't get in. I've said all along that Boston could be a better team this year and not make the playoffs and that could easily happen.

As for Brooklyn, I've been one of the biggest "don't trade the [dang] pick" proponents on this forum for the last year. I see nothing thus far that would change my mind. I thought that pick could be a top five choice and that's looking pretty good right now.

[Endless Paradise]

There's a significant amount of revisionist history going on here. Pierce didn't really matter much during the regular season; his impact was in the playoffs.

Washington's not falling out of the playoffs because they lost Paul Pierce, of all people. Beal seems to be making a leap this season and Wall's an All-Star, All-NBA point guard. They're a lock as long as those two are healthy.

[TheFlex]

In defense of Detroit being a top seed (or at least top 4): I've long been a believer of Jackson and Drummond as All-Stars and this seems to be the year they make their debut in the Game. Their team should get better to counteract opponents playing them with greater vigor as Jackson/Drummond continue to gain chemistry, guys like Marcus Morris and Ersan Ilyasova get acclimated to the system and city, and guys like KCP and Stanley Johnson continue to develop. They have a really good coach and a young team that isn't going to look to take any point of the regular season lightly. The main factor though: Jackson/Drummond sustaining dominance. I think they will.

In defense of Milwaukee missing: never denied they have talent, but it's not an easy fit. I see them missing as they stumble through figuring it out. Doesn't help that Jabari likely won't be in 100% physical shape for a few more months and 100% basketball shape until after the season.

In defense of Washington missing the playoffs: It's not just that they lost Pierce, it's that they didn't really replace him, and didn't improve an aging frontcourt. Here's their rotation 3-5:

Otto Porter/Jared Dudley
Humphries/[Nene]
Gortat/[Nene]

That's pretty brutal, so brutal that I'm not convinced Wall/Beal can drag them to .500. Also consider that they're at best run by an average coaching staff, so on paper talent is pretty important to their success. Porter is looking better lately, which is crucial for them. But he'll likely have to be even better, and Gortat/Nene will likely have to hold off Father Time in order for Washington to survive in an improved East.

[Granath]

There's a significant amount of revisionist history going on here. Pierce didn't really matter much during the regular season; his impact was in the playoffs.

Washington's not falling out of the playoffs because they lost Paul Pierce, of all people. Beal seems to be making a leap this season and Wall's an All-Star, All-NBA point guard. They're a lock as long as those two are healthy.

It's not a matter of revisionist history. Pierce was a very steadying influence on that team. It wasn't just the production (4th on the team in scoring and minutes played, 3rd in assists and 5th in rebounds) but the veteran presence. Now if Beal makes the leap and Wall stays healthy, they're in the mix and I said they'd compete in my post. But looking at the rest of that roster I'm not all that impressed. Wall and Beal are going to have to carry that team every single night and that's a tough task, especially when you consider both of those guys are playing on the outside.

They're in the mix, but they appear to be standing still while other teams around them have improved.

[Granath]

In defense of Milwaukee missing: never denied they have talent, but it's not an easy fit. I see them missing as they stumble through figuring it out. Doesn't help that Jabari likely won't be in 100% physical shape for a few more months and 100% basketball shape until after the season.

I respect your opinion but I don't necessarily agree with it. I think the talent fits quite well. Giannis is the dynamic, big, athletic guy while Monroe is your rock in the Center (and isn't out of position at PF anymore). Parker is already playing and given the reverse baseline slam on the Knicks the other night (http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/11/6/9686264/jabari-parker-acl-injury-basline-dunk-knicks-bucks) I'd say that he's well along in his rehab. He's not 100% right now but I think he'll be quite effective after the All-Star break. In the meanwhile they also still have Middleton and MCW...that's just too much talent to miss the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (insert injury caveat here).

[Moranis]

I don't see how Washington misses the playoffs.  Wall, Beal, Porter, Humprhies, Gortat is a very strong starting 5.  Add in Hilario, Dudley, Neal and Sessions and they have a quality bench.

Similarly, I don't see how Milwaukee misses the playoffs.  Just too much talent added.

[Denis998]

No way wash falls out, they are just too good, don't let that win against them lessen them as a team. From what I have been seeing so far, Chicago coach is terrible, and he rather award veterans with playing time despite their performance; I can see them missing the playoffs. Indy will prolly be out as well. Milwaukee is a 50/50 chance for me, its either them or Detroit.

[fairweatherfan]

From what I have been seeing so far, Chicago coach is terrible, and he rather award veterans with playing time despite their performance; I can see them missing the playoffs.

Terrible is subjective, but Hoiberg's put Noah on the bench for Mirotic and brought McDermott into the core rotation.  I don't think he's just giving minutes to veterans just cuz.  There's a question of whether his strategy fits their personnel well, though.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I can see a huge change in the attitude of fans and posters on here. I am and always have been President of the "we are normal at best, so tank you morons!", fan club . It has been hard rooting for them to lose since 2004 basically, except a few years 08"-10".......I know thats extreme, its an addiction even/possibly.

The most let down I've been for some reason was this past draft because many of us during the PAST summer spent the summer talking about how this draft had the best Center prospects and we could likely draft a legit shot blocking BIG GUY. We were right and as of now, early but game proven, 4 BIG'S  possibly will be franchise players:Karl Towns, Okafor, Kristaps, Myles Turner; I think in that order(maybe you can add WCS but its very early in the season).

Sorry, I am trying to let it go.

My answer is no we will not make the playoffs and I hope we don't. I'd love to make a trade to get legit youth or take a risk....and get picks for 2017. Let Smart handle the ball and be the focal point and hopefully RJ can play next to him and spread the floor.

2 TOP PICKS (our and BKN) and then maybe Dallas.

[PhoSita]

I like Detroit, too, but I don't think they're winning more games than Atlanta, Cleveland, or Chicago.

I'm with you on Washington slipping, though I doubt they'll miss the playoffs.

My guess would be


Cavs
Hawks
Raptors
Pistons
Bulls
Heat
Wizards

8th seed goes to one of: Pacers, Celtics, Magic, Bucks, Knicks, Hornets


I really have no idea which of that last group will make it in.  But I feel good selecting the others to the playoffs.

[konkmv]

I think we will fight but just miss

[D Dub]

In defense of Milwaukee missing: never denied they have talent, but it's not an easy fit. I see them missing as they stumble through figuring it out. Doesn't help that Jabari likely won't be in 100% physical shape for a few more months and 100% basketball shape until after the season.

I respect your opinion but I don't necessarily agree with it. I think the talent fits quite well. Giannis is the dynamic, big, athletic guy while Monroe is your rock in the Center (and isn't out of position at PF anymore). Parker is already playing and given the reverse baseline slam on the Knicks the other night (http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/11/6/9686264/jabari-parker-acl-injury-basline-dunk-knicks-bucks) I'd say that he's well along in his rehab. He's not 100% right now but I think he'll be quite effective after the All-Star break. In the meanwhile they also still have Middleton and MCW...that's just too much talent to miss the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (insert injury caveat here).

The Bucks look great on paper, but for some reason -- to me at least -- they aren't passing the eye test and I question whether replacing BKnight with MCW was a good move.

On paper, everyone likes the bigger/younger upside guy coming off the ROY season.  But it does seem they lost some element of leadership when they handed the keys to the young 6ers product.  Their other cornerstone, Monroe, is another whose been groomed on losing NBA basketball.

The other intangible they have drifted away from his spacing.  MCW and Monroe are not nearly as capable to space the floor as Knight and Dudley were last year.  Those two let their 4-out system flourish and we saw the likes of Middleton & Giannis breaking out.  Now that those two have to share the court with Monroe and MCW, they'll certainly see a lot more defenses collapsing around them.  To the extent which, I predict the Bucks struggle to score all year long. 

Who is going to lead this group when the going gets tough? 
Parker or Middleton?  MCW or Monroe? 
They could really use a vet in that rotation, losing Dudley hurt them in that respect. 

[pearljammer10]

No way Detroit is a first place team. No way the Wiz miss the playoffs in the East.

Cavs
Atlanta
Toronto
Miami
Bulls
Wizards
Pistons
Bucks

Pacers
Celtics

Hornets
Knicks
Magic

Nets
76ers

[D Dub]

At this stage of the season it's too early to draw so many conclusions about the middle-teams.  Have to let the schedule play out a bit.  20 games I thought was the Jeff Clark rule. 

That said, I think the top 3 are pretty clear cut (Cle, Atl, Tor) as are the bottom 2 (Phi, Bkl). 

Everything else is still up for grabs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the C's finish ahead of Detroit, for example.