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16. Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk Will Be Boston’s Best Big-Man ComboFor purposes of this prediction, we’re counting on-court/off-court plus-minus splits for two-man combinations among Johnson, Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, David Lee, and Jared Sullinger.2 The Zeller-Lee combo seems to be Brad Stevens’s preferred starting lineup choice, but Johnson is going to play a ton — I bet he starts at some point during the season — and his game meshes well with Olynyk’s on both ends.
19. The Knicks Win the Battle of New YorkNeither New York team is going to be good, but if you surround Carmelo Anthony with at least a few competent NBA players, you should be able to push 30 wins in the East. The Nets roster beyond Brook Lopez, Thad Young, and Joe Johnson is a train wreck, and the Young-Lopez front line isn’t stopping anyone. The Nets are one Lopez foot injury from being a sub-20-win team. People realize the Celtics could win 48 games and get the first pick in the draft via the Nets, right? Holy hell.The Knicks are just as vulnerable to a Melo knee injury, but he doesn’t have one recurring problem like Lopez’s foot stuff, and when both players are healthy, Melo is just a more galvanizing force.
17. Dallas Makes a Run at Keeping Its Pick, Falls ShortI’m worried about the Mavs and poor Dirk. They could be set up for a fascinating internal debate between Mark Cuban, a shark who knows when to strike, and Rick Carlisle, a coach who once lambasted the Warriors in a competition committee meeting for their late-season tankery in 2012, per league sources.Parsons and Wesley Matthews will play at some point, probably soon, but it may take them months to start humming after major offseason surgeries. It’s unclear how the Mavs will defend the basket with Samuel Dalembert, always late and out of shape, as their only rim protector. A full-on Deron Williams resurrection seems like a lot to ask after years of leg and ankle issues.The Mavs owe a top-seven-protected first-rounder to Boston, and if things go badly enough early, you could see them spiraling toward one of the league’s seven worst records. Shut down the recovering wings, clean up one of Dirk’s joints, and stink all spring.But list the league’s worst teams and you’ll discover it’d be pretty hard for the Mavs to finish in the bottom seven unless they tank early. And they’re not going to do that. [Cut to Danny Ainge rubbing his hands together.]
20. Brooklyn Stands Pat With Its Three StarsIt’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.In other words: If the Nets stink and they can get a future first-round pick for Young, they should do it — even it costs them wins. Getting that kind of return for Young will be tough, with teams again valuing first-round picks like gold, and the Nets may be the kind of team that is more concerned with optics than sound management.They might be able to get more than one first-round pick for Lopez if he keeps rolling, but they need Lopez to lure free agents this summer, when they could have enough cap space for two max contracts. They’re determined to preserve that space, so they won’t flip Johnson’s massive expiring contract for two or three rotation players on longer deals — the sort of panicked win-now move that has been their M.O. the last four years. The Nets won’t clog their cap sheet, and those kinds of deals are much harder to find today anyway. Contracts are shorter, and the league is swimming in future cap room. There just aren’t many good players on multiyear deals that teams are itching to dump.Rival execs are crossing their fingers that the Nets buy out Johnson’s contract to let him chase a ring, and there’s a small chance they do that. But they’re under the tax already, so they don’t need to.
27. Boston Will Trade Jared Sullinger and James YoungDanny Ainge loves both of these guys, league sources say, but Sullinger is last in a long line of big men — and he’s a David Falk client due a new contract after this season. Sullinger alone may not fetch much on the open market; he’s a defensive liability with conditioning issues and a 3-pointer that never quite materialized. There are teams that could use another big man, but it’s hard to see Boston getting a quality asset for Sullinger.Add Young, and you might get something. Young is just 20, so it’s understandable that he’s behind so many guards on this 15-deep roster. But it’s unclear if he’ll play in Year 2, and after that, teams already have to start thinking about contract extensions. The Celtics could have 13 players back next season, plus three first-round picks — taking them one player over the 15-man limit. They have to do something at some point.They could stand pat, of course. Ainge is saving his best ammo for a star. But it’s hard to find the next youngish star, beyond DeMarcus Cousins (and maybe Kevin Love), that could hit the trade market in the next 18 months.With that in mind, here’s a random bonus prediction: Some team will make a big trade offer for a young sub-star who just signed a new contract or a player about to become a restricted free agent. Tobias Harris comes to mind as a candidate for this kind of deal. (Channing Frye is also available, by the way.) A team in Orlando’s position has no real reason to deal Harris; with the cap rising, almost every contract is somewhere between good and acceptable.But that same logic could motivate a suitor to overpay for a good but flawed young or midcareer player — especially if that suitor concludes that no superstar is likely to become available soon.
It’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.
Interesting. Who on earth is on the other end of this Sullinger-Young trade? I can only come up with Eastern teams like New York, Indiana, or Washington that are thin at the 4 and don't have a young shooter in the bullpen... and it's hard to imagine trading with any of those because they'll be in the thick of the division race with us (well... maybe not NY).I'd trade them for Kelly Oubre from Washington.The Pelicans, maybe? The Mavs could definitely use those guys but don't have anything to offer that they would part with. The Griz could trade us some weird piece of their crazy complicated 1st rounder situation? The Jazz get greedy for '15 and put Exum in play? I don't really see any of this.
Agree with Lowe that Sully's days are numbered in Boston. Think the writing has been on the wall for some time now.
Quote from: Donoghus on October 23, 2015, 01:38:25 PMAgree with Lowe that Sully's days are numbered in Boston. Think the writing has been on the wall for some time now.It seems very likely that we will be losing at least one big and at least one guard, just due to the utter logjam we've got there. Sully + Bradley seem like the most obvious candidates due to their contracts and the players we've recently picked up at their spots, but Young makes a lot of sense too, especially if we don't see enough improvement out of him.
Quote from: foulweatherfan on October 23, 2015, 02:14:03 PMQuote from: Donoghus on October 23, 2015, 01:38:25 PMAgree with Lowe that Sully's days are numbered in Boston. Think the writing has been on the wall for some time now.It seems very likely that we will be losing at least one big and at least one guard, just due to the utter logjam we've got there. Sully + Bradley seem like the most obvious candidates due to their contracts and the players we've recently picked up at their spots, but Young makes a lot of sense too, especially if we don't see enough improvement out of him.I guess my question is how much perceived value does Young have out there among other GMs?
Wait, Brooklyn has three stars?
QuoteIt’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face. Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.
Quote from: Smartacus on October 23, 2015, 01:36:19 PMQuoteIt’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face. Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.I'm not sure I buy that logic. Why trade Young just to trade him? You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st). I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick. It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer. Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.
Quote from: Moranis on October 23, 2015, 02:39:42 PMQuote from: Smartacus on October 23, 2015, 01:36:19 PMQuoteIt’s a common refrain: The Nets will try to win as many games as possible to avoid the humiliation of coughing up a high lottery pick to Boston. But that shouldn’t be the case unless the Nets are on the bubble for the no. 8 seed. The pick is gone. It’s not a top-eight-protected pick. It’s just gone. Once you’re in the lottery, it doesn’t matter if that pick is no. 8 or no. 5 or no. 1. Losing the no. 1 pick is an embarrassment that stains your franchise forever, but the pick belongs to someone else regardless.I've been pretty vocal about not thinking that The Nets pick is going to be as high as many others think on this board it will. I've cited legitimate talent in Lopez - Johnson - Young, a strong coach with a history of taking teams to the playoffs, and particularly the fact that they have no pick incentive to tank.But this logic from Lowe is sound. They've already lost the pick it doesn't matter if it's top 9 or top 3. If the best move is to start the rebuild now rather than later, they'll do what's best for the franchise instead of trying to save face. Still think they could outperform the low expectations set for them, but could definetly see the FO opting for the nuclear option as well.I'm not sure I buy that logic. Why trade Young just to trade him? You would think long term Young has more value than some unknown, presumably late 1st round pick (the only team that would trade a 1st for Young is a team that is good and thinks Young might help them get over the top and thus the pick would be a later 1st). I mean it is one thing if you can unload Young for multiple assets, but why get rid of a goodish relatively young player for a late 1st round pick. It just doesn't make sense especially since getting worse doesn't help them where their own pick is concerned.I do agree that I don't think they trade Johnson for lesser players on longer contracts (though wouldn't be surprised if they moved him in some sort of trade) and that they might move Lopez if they get a strong enough offer. Those moves or non-moves make some sense given where they currently are, but it would have to be a darn good offer for Lopez, something with multiple 1sts and/or relatively high level prospects and I'm not sure that offer exists.I think it does make sense to trade Young with say Dallas's draft pick to move up a few spots in the draft. But that's a long way from now.
Topic: Zach Lowe Predictions (Merged) (Read 6891 times)