The official 2015-2016 Dallas Mavericks season watch thread

[slamtheking]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

[saltlover]

It's improbable that we get better than the 12th pick from the Mavericks, just based where the other teams are in the standings.

Yeah.  If the Mavs lose out the season, the Nuggets could catch them, but that's about it.  The Nuggets have little tank incentive since they swap with the Knicks for their pick, but it's hard to see them making up 4.5 games over the final 10 barring the Mavs completely falling apart.

Very unlikely for Denver to catch them, but tomorrow night is key if there's going to be a chance.  Dallas at Denver at 9PM, both on back2backs after losses.

It's true that the difference between 12th and 14th from bottom is not a huge deal. Add to this that 12th spot has slightly higher % to end in top 3 (2.5 compared to 1.8 ) in which case we have to wait one more year for our pick.

Still, a higher first round pick is a higher first round pick...

Also it will be a lot easier to trade up from 12 to 9 or 10 than 14 if there's somebody Ainge likes a lot.

true, but in this year's draft is there that much difference between the talent at #10 and the talent at #16 or so? it seems to be that this draft has a fair amount of players who have a shot at being rotation/bench players, but not many potential stars. but, i have been wrong a whole bunch of times before. 

It's not the talent difference that matters so much. Say the Celtics have the 12th pick, and someone they're interested in is sliding down in the draft.  If whoever picks at 9 doesn't want that guy, it's easier to believe that one of the players they'd pick at 9 will still be there at 12 than at 15 or 16.  Accordingly that team will feel less risk in trading down, because they can still get their guy and get an extra pick out of it.  It's the ability to move up those 2-3 spots to get a player who slides to to other teams' draft preference (e.g. Winslow last year).  Certainly there will be some starts from th 5-10 range.  I don't know who, but they're there.  And being able to trade to the back end of that range gives the C's a better chance at getting that player.  As we saw last year, it's very difficult to get there from 15-16.

It's late and that wasn't well-written, but there's real value in those extra 3-4 draft spots.

[chambers]

So the Dallas pick is now a guaranteed lottery pick.

Just need it to be #8 or higher.

Pretty amazing to think that Ainge turned Rondo into Jae Crowder and a lottery pick  (well a very likely lottery pick).

[chambers]

It's improbable that we get better than the 12th pick from the Mavericks, just based where the other teams are in the standings.

Yeah.  If the Mavs lose out the season, the Nuggets could catch them, but that's about it.  The Nuggets have little tank incentive since they swap with the Knicks for their pick, but it's hard to see them making up 4.5 games over the final 10 barring the Mavs completely falling apart.

Very unlikely for Denver to catch them, but tomorrow night is key if there's going to be a chance.  Dallas at Denver at 9PM, both on back2backs after losses.

It's true that the difference between 12th and 14th from bottom is not a huge deal. Add to this that 12th spot has slightly higher % to end in top 3 (2.5 compared to 1.8 ) in which case we have to wait one more year for our pick.

Still, a higher first round pick is a higher first round pick...

Also it will be a lot easier to trade up from 12 to 9 or 10 than 14 if there's somebody Ainge likes a lot.

true, but in this year's draft is there that much difference between the talent at #10 and the talent at #16 or so? it seems to be that this draft has a fair amount of players who have a shot at being rotation/bench players, but not many potential stars. but, i have been wrong a whole bunch of times before. 

It's not the talent difference that matters so much. Say the Celtics have the 12th pick, and someone they're interested in is sliding down in the draft.  If whoever picks at 9 doesn't want that guy, it's easier to believe that one of the players they'd pick at 9 will still be there at 12 than at 15 or 16.  Accordingly that team will feel less risk in trading down, because they can still get their guy and get an extra pick out of it.  It's the ability to move up those 2-3 spots to get a player who slides to to other teams' draft preference (e.g. Winslow last year).  Certainly there will be some starts from th 5-10 range.  I don't know who, but they're there.  And being able to trade to the back end of that range gives the C's a better chance at getting that player.  As we saw last year, it's very difficult to get there from 15-16.

It's late and that wasn't well-written, but there's real value in those extra 3-4 draft spots.

spot on, TP.

Can't stress how important this is.

Add in the Brooklyn picks and we have a very powerful combo there for a team willing to do a 2 or 3 for 1.

[Emmette Bryant]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

Is this true? If Dallas won their remaining nine games they would finish with 44 wins.  Surely that would get them into the playoffs. Please explain so that my small brain will understand. 

[Kane3387]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

Is this true? If Dallas won their remaining nine games they would finish with 44 wins.  Surely that would get them into the playoffs. Please explain so that my small brain will understand. 

If the season ended today

[acieEarl]

Looks like there's a pretty good chance that the Mavs pick is #12. Not a bad spot in this draft. That's where it's at right now.

They could leap back into the playoff as they're only a game out. They'd really have to go south to get by Denver (31 wins), Orlando, Milwaukee, Knicks, and Sac to drop the Mavs down to the 7th pick. Can't see that happening and I doubt they drop below Denver.

[LarBrd33]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

Wut?

[LarBrd33]

So the Dallas pick is now a guaranteed lottery pick.

Just need it to be #8 or higher.

Pretty amazing to think that Ainge turned Rondo into Jae Crowder and a lottery pick  (well a very likely lottery pick).

Guaranteed ?

Is this the rare reverse-reverse jinx ?

[Emmette Bryant]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

Is this true? If Dallas won their remaining nine games they would finish with 44 wins.  Surely that would get them into the playoffs. Please explain so that my small brain will understand. 

If the season ended today

I think you guys are a little too optimistic.

[slamtheking]

dallas officially out of the playoffs as of this evening.  how can that not be a good night?

loooonnnng time coming

Is this true? If Dallas won their remaining nine games they would finish with 44 wins.  Surely that would get them into the playoffs. Please explain so that my small brain will understand. 

If the season ended today

I think you guys are a little too optimistic.

can't be too optimistic about that pick.  hoping they're still out of the playoffs in another 3 weeks so that the pick is around 12-13 but not counting that as a definite by any means.  Utah and Houston just haven't been consistent enough to bank on them staying ahead of Dallas

[mef730]

So the Dallas pick is now a guaranteed lottery pick.

Just need it to be #8 or higher.

Mike

[fantankerous]

Lebron will sit out tomorrow against Houston.  Hopefully, the Rockets can pick up a win and create some seperation from the Mavs.

[hpantazo]

Lebron will sit out tomorrow against Houston.  Hopefully, the Rockets can pick up a win and create some seperation from the Mavs.

that, or Kyrie and Love will feel like they were let out of prison and go for 40 each.

[CelticSooner]

Does Dallas still represent the pick going into the draft lottery?