Stevens Looking for a Top 10

[Jon]

So according to this article-- http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/stevens-search-celtics-perfect-10 --Brad Stevens is saying he generally doesn't want to go beyond 10 deep in his rotation.  So I'm curious to think what people think about that. 

1) Who do you foresee the top 10 being? 

2) What does this say about potential extensions for guys like Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger when we may be looking at one of them not even being in the rotation? 

3) What does this say for a guy like Evan Turner, who may be a fringe rotation player at best? 

Right now I'd go with the following:

PG: Smart/Thomas
SG: Bradley/Turner
SF: Crowder/Jerbenko
PF: Lee/Sullinger
C: Johnson/Olynynk

In that scenario, I don't see Zeller on the floor most nights, which would be an interesting situation for a guy some people are expecting to command an extension worth around 10 million per year. 

[littleteapot]

Zeller needs to see the floor over Olynyk. I'd also rather see Turner as our SF, starting there and spending more time there than at SG, using Jerebko almost exclusively as a stretch 4, and hopefully using one of the rookies in our guard rotation. I guess this means we're using more than 10 guys, but I think on any given night you either don't play Jerebko, or you play him behind Lee and kick Sully and Olynyk right out of the rotation.

[saltlover]

Stevens has talked about this before, but has also said that matchups might determine who that top 10 is.  So some players might be moved into and out of the rotation depending upon opponent.

[bdm860]

Injuries may solve this problem before the season even starts, but I would be shocked if Zeller is the odd man out.  Now of course this is open for debate, but I felt Zeller was ahead of both Sullinger and Olynyk at the end of last season in Stevens rotation (although harder to judge since Olynyk missed February and Sullinger missed March and we all know has conditioning issues).  Maybe it was just a matchup situation, but when it mattered most Zeller was starting and playing more minutes than either Sullinger or Olynyk in both the playoffs and when they were fighting for a spot in April.

Right now, I bet Zeller is penciled in as Stevens starting Center (with Johnson at PF, and probably Lee used as a spark plug off the bench).  It's Zeller's spot to lose in my mind.

[littleteapot]

I think Lee/Amir should be our starting frontcourt. When Lee's on the court, you have to feed him the ball at least 15% of your possessions or the fact that he can't do much without the ball will hurt you. When Thomas is on the court, he needs to have the freedom to dominate the ball and attack double teams and individual defenders whenever he wants, which doesn't mesh with Lee (I'm assuming Thomas is coming off the bench). I also think Amir is the best defender on our team. If Zeller/Lee is our starting frontcourt, neither one can guard a big center well enough. Amir can't really either, but he's the best we've got.

[KeepRondo]

Tough question. I think Smart, Bradley, Amir, IT4 and Crowder will get the bulk of the minutes. Everyone else is probably going to be in competition for the remaining minutes. I also think at some point RJ Hunter will work his way into the rotation.

I do agree with OP that Zeller may get his minutes reduced by a lot.

[The Oracle]

  Where in the world do people get the idea that Zeller is better than Olynyk.  There is literally nothing he does better than K.O. and a ton of things he is way worse at.  Every advanced statistic tells you that there is no comparison and yet people still think he is somehow better.  Mind boggling.

[Jon]

It should be noted that minutes per game, Zeller played less than Sullinger and Olynyk (as well as Johnson, though clearly he wasn't on the C's). 

Again, I'm not saying that Zeller won't play, but it could happen.  I think the impetus of my original post was really more about fuzzy math.  I feel like some people act like they've added a 6th position or a 5th quarter to each game. 

[bdm860]

I think Lee/Amir should be our starting frontcourt. When Lee's on the court, you have to feed him the ball at least 15% of your possessions or the fact that he can't do much without the ball will hurt you.

Hey good, he'll fit in with the rest of the team perfectly then with not being able to do much    Outside of Thomas, the C's Usage rate seems to be pretty uniformly distributed, so Lee can get the ball 20% of the time, and that's fine and fits in with the rest of the C's current style.

When Thomas is on the court, he needs to have the freedom to dominate the ball and attack double teams and individual defenders whenever he wants, which doesn't mesh with Lee (I'm assuming Thomas is coming off the bench).

Sure Thomas is best when he has the ball in his hands and can attack, but once teams adjust he's useless.  What I saw watching the C's games, many times Thomas usually 1st off the bench and came in alone, and then about 2 minutes later others sub in.  Thomas attacks for a couple of minutes, teams adjust, and you can throw in Lee giving you another offensive option.

Plus, while we all like to assume David Lee is going to play like he did in 2014, there's no guarantee he hasn't lost a step.  He will be 32 after all, remember how good Troy Murphy looked in Indiana in '09, and remember how he played in Boston in '10?  Very similar when you look at guys like Jermaine O'Neal and Michael Finley and Ray Allen (not-so subtle jab), how well they looked the year or two before they got to Boston, and then how we could see they clearly lost a step and weren't the same player any more once they got here. 

I like Lee, hope he does well here, but I doubt Stevens is building the rotation around him.  I still see Zeller as the starting C, Johnson as the starting PF.  Lee, Olynyk, and Sullinger all battling for the minutes after that.  But at the same time, we all know Stevens isn't scared to play around with the starters either, I'm sure we'll see a little bit of everything, but I don't see Zeller losing his starting spot (to start the season at least).

[Tr1boy]

No guarantee Lee will start or even get any playing time from the start 

The 5 upfront amir, sully,ko,Zeller,jerebko

Sf - turner, crowded

Backcourt

Smart, Ab, IT, Rozier

[Moranis]

I would do something like this

PG - Thomas 30, Smart 18
SG - Smart 18, Bradley 30
SF - Turner 28, Crowder 20
PF - Sullinger 24, Lee 15, Olynyk 9
C - Johnson 28, Zeller 15, Olynyk 5

Total
Smart - 36
Thomas - 30
Bradley - 30
Turner - 28
Johnson - 28
Sullinger - 24
Crowder - 20
Lee - 15
Zeller - 15
Olynyk - 14

Team clearly needs a real legit starter at center and needs to consolidate the PF's.

[littleteapot]

Hey good, he'll fit in with the rest of the team perfectly then with not being able to do much    Outside of Thomas, the C's Usage rate seems to be pretty uniformly distributed, so Lee can get the ball 20% of the time, and that's fine and fits in with the rest of the C's current style.

I mean we should force it to him and have him be the catalyst on 15% of plays. The rest of them, he should still be an option. With Thomas, I think every time you force it to Lee you take away from what Thomas does well, and every time Thomas has the ball for the first half of the possession, you take away what Lee does well.

Sure Thomas is best when he has the ball in his hands and can attack, but once teams adjust he's useless.  What I saw watching the C's games, many times Thomas usually 1st off the bench and came in alone, and then about 2 minutes later others sub in.  Thomas attacks for a couple of minutes, teams adjust, and you can throw in Lee giving you another offensive option.

Plus, while we all like to assume David Lee is going to play like he did in 2014, there's no guarantee he hasn't lost a step.  He will be 32 after all, remember how good Troy Murphy looked in Indiana in '09, and remember how he played in Boston in '10?  Very similar when you look at guys like Jermaine O'Neal and Michael Finley and Ray Allen (not-so subtle jab), how well they looked the year or two before they got to Boston, and then how we could see they clearly lost a step and weren't the same player any more once they got here.

I don't think Lee is going to play that well. However I don't think his game fits with a ball-dominant guard like Thomas. I think Zach Lowe put it best when he said "Thomas is one of those guys where you pause the video and you can see a guy open in the corner and another guy in the post, but Thomas takes the shot anyway and it goes in." I don't think you want a guy like that with Lee. You want a guy like that with energy bigs.

I think the possibility of Lee declining is very real. I think if he declines enough he might just not play, but the middle ground would either be the awkward Thomas/Lee bench unit or just starting Thomas and benching Lee.

[bdm860]

  Where in the world do people get the idea that Zeller is better than Olynyk.  There is literally nothing he does better than K.O. and a ton of things he is way worse at.  Every advanced statistic tells you that there is no comparison and yet people still think he is somehow better.  Mind boggling.

So at the end of the season, why was Zeller playing more than Olynyk?

It should be noted that minutes per game, Zeller played less than Sullinger and Olynyk (as well as Johnson, though clearly he wasn't on the C's). 

Again, I'm not saying that Zeller won't play, but it could happen.  I think the impetus of my original post was really more about fuzzy math.  I feel like some people act like they've added a 6th position or a 5th quarter to each game.

You're looking at the whole season (and one full of change at that).  Sullinger's and Olynyk's minutes started high and went down, while Zeller's went up.  At the end of the season, we saw Stevens rotation and it had Zeller ahead of Sullinger and Olynyk.  While sure it's a small sample size (11-12 games), I would assume that's the starting point going into next season.

But I'd be happy if Sullinger comes in to camp as a beast, Lee plays like he did in 2014, and Olynyk finally consistently plays great, and they all just knock Zeller completely out of the rotation.

[littleteapot]

  Where in the world do people get the idea that Zeller is better than Olynyk.  There is literally nothing he does better than K.O. and a ton of things he is way worse at.  Every advanced statistic tells you that there is no comparison and yet people still think he is somehow better.  Mind boggling.

Things Zeller does better than Olynyk

-Help defense
-Post defense
-Face up defense
-Pick and roll defense
-Scoring at the rim
-Rebounding
-Not turning the ball over

[Big333223]

This feels a little like common sense. There are only 5 positions and 48 minutes in a game. Playing more than 10 guys becomes hard to do. The truth is, Ainge needs to consolodate some of this roster asap.