What numbers do you expect a healthy and slimmer Sullinger to put up?

[Greyman]

If fit, I think he can do 20 points and 9 rebounds, the two main areas we expect him to do well. I think he will start and play 30+ minutes. I do really like the idea of him doing well and being part of the future. He needs to produce close to these numbers to be part of the future though.

[Csfan1984]

12/6/2 at 24mpg 40% 28% 70%. There is  just not enough minutes to go around to think he goes over 30mpg

C's have the bigs of Jerekbo, AJ, Lee, KO, Mikey, Zeller and Sully each may deserve some minutes.

[Celtics4ever]

It depends on whether he can beat out the other guys, if he can then I think similar numbers to last year.  If not, I think he may regress.  At best though, I think 15 PPG 9 RPG and 45% FG and 30% 3p and 1 BPG.  I still think he will have some issues on D, because he is slow and will still be still be to a large degree.

I do not think it will be a given he starts, nor should he automatically.  I think he will have to earn it.   Looks like he did a lot of work this summer but the real work begins.  I do not think Lee rolls over and plays dead either.

But I keep reading rumors about Ainge wanting to make a move for guys like Horford and I can't see Sully not being involved in a trade like that.

[slamtheking]

I think a healthy Sully that's in good enough shape to be getting starter's minutes could put up 17/9 over the course of the season.  I think that's unlikely though based on what will be the minutes squeeze between Sully, KO, Lee, Amir and Zeller.

[clover]

30.6 minutes
14.9 pts
8.7 Rebs

46%, 32%, 78%

Sounds about right--if they're angling to pump and dump.

Probably fewer minutes and lower stats if they're hoping to keep him longer-term.

[Who]

I don't think Sully will get enough minutes to put up big numbers even if he is in good condition.

So I'd say something similar to previous numbers. 13ppg and 7rpg.

I think Sully is capable of being a 16-17ppg and 9-10rpg guy if he got the minutes he would deserve if conditioning is improved.

[Rosco917]

The question should be asked will he defend at a high enough caliber to deserve 30 minutes a game. His past doesn't suggest it. With all the PF's the C's have, I think 20-22 minutes a game is more like it.

I'm thinking 13-14pp. 7-8rpg. With fingers crossed he doesn't miss a chunk of games somewhere along the line.

Is Sully the PF Stevens wants to sign long term, moving to the future? CBS likes playing at a fast pace. Sully is never going to be quick, he'll never run the floor consistently, or contest shots. We're talking about giving him 12 million a year, because he got in shape one year.

 

[Hemingway]

Ainge is going to have to make a decision on Sully soon if he hasn't already. If Ainge things he will turn it around and stay in shape and the med staff thing he is good for the long haul we need to offer him an extension and get him to agree to a price that is fair but helps us win. If we don't want to resign him for a lot we need to trade him and then everyone knows we don't want him so we probably don't get a lot.

As far as the numbers I'd say a tiny bit better than last year. The nembers here seem reasonable. The problem is, I don't see him making a big step. 20 and 10 seems unreasonable. But it wouldn't surprised me if other guys like Smart or Crowder or IT bumped their ppg buy 5 or more. That said, someone has to score, we will see how good Amir and David Lee are.

[Celtics4ever]

But it wouldn't surprised me if other guys like Smart or Crowder or IT bumped their ppg buy 5 or more.

I too, think Smart is going to make the biggest leap forward.  But I think he will have a lot of inconsistency as well and be all over the place in terms of performance.  Crowder, I do not know if he has the skills and tools to score 15 ppg.   He is toughness and plays D though, but I have not seen anything that makes me believe he will light up the points on the scoreboard.

[D.o.s.]

early morning coffee point of discussion -- There's a bit of a Catch-22 going on here: We're talking about the numbers Sullinger would have to put up in order to justify getting starter's minutes, but if he's not getting starter's minutes how can he put up the sort of numbers we'd expect to see?

Some other posters have commented on this already on this last page, but the logjam at the 4 is very real, especially since many of them aren't really cut out for playing the 5.

Taking that to the next level, then: do you feel comfortable paying Sullinger for what you think he could do in 30+ minutes if he's only managing 22 this season?

[sofutomygaha]

More minutes

More scoring

More free throws

Less rebounds

average something like 16 points, 7 rebounds, 45% FG

[Celtics4ever]

Taking that to the next level, then: do you feel comfortable paying Sullinger for what you think he could do in 30+ minutes if he's only managing 22 this season?

I certainly do not unless he comes into camp a completely changed player and plays hard on both ends of the court.   But then I have always been the camp of the 20 other GMs who passed on him.   I think he has some skill but his athletic base is very low and it cripples him as a player.  I have always seen him as an asset and not a building block if your going for a championship team.   Would he have played on the KG or Bird era teams?   Only as a bench guy, in most cases and it would limited.  Given also, he is not top ten in any stat in PF let alone the league.  I think he is an above average to midling talent who sucks on one end of the court.

[D.o.s.]

Taking that to the next level, then: do you feel comfortable paying Sullinger for what you think he could do in 30+ minutes if he's only managing 22 this season?

I certainly do not unless he comes into camp a completely changed player and plays hard on both ends of the court.   But then I have always been the camp of the 20 other GMs who passed on him.   I think he has some skill but his athletic base is very low and it cripples him as a player.  I have always seen him as an asset and not a building block if your going for a championship team.   Would he have played on the KG or Bird era teams?   Only as a bench guy, in most cases and it would limited.  Given also, he is not top ten in any stat in PF let alone the league.  I think he is an above average to midling talent who sucks on one end of the court.

Yeah I kind of agree -- although I think it's worth noting that he fell to us in the draft because of injury concerns (specifically his back raised some red flags for NBA doctors prior to the event), not because of his play or ability.

[More Banners]

My hunch, barring a trade, is that Lee/Amir start and get 28 minutes each. They're just better than the other guys.

I'd say Sully is on the next tier with Zeller, KO and Jerebko.

Major battle for limited minutes.

Jerebko, just signed, will play.  Zeller, the only center, will be needed.

Trade rumors will be rampant.

Per-36, I'd say Sully goes for 18-8 on 43% shooting and average d.

[PhoSita]

early morning coffee point of discussion -- There's a bit of a Catch-22 going on here: We're talking about the numbers Sullinger would have to put up in order to justify getting starter's minutes, but if he's not getting starter's minutes how can he put up the sort of numbers we'd expect to see?

Some other posters have commented on this already on this last page, but the logjam at the 4 is very real, especially since many of them aren't really cut out for playing the 5.

Taking that to the next level, then: do you feel comfortable paying Sullinger for what you think he could do in 30+ minutes if he's only managing 22 this season?

No, since irrespective of what he might look like while he's working for a starting job and a new contract, I'm concerned about his ability to stay fit, healthy, and productive long term.

I don't mind paying young guys based on future production rather than past production.  Typically that's a winning proposition because young productive players almost always have positive trade value. 

A guy like Sullinger, however, could easily turn into an albatross contract if his weight issues keep up.


Sullinger is young and productive.  But how much better is he, really, than a guy like Marreese Speights, for example?

Plenty of productive young bigs with nice Per-36 numbers never make the leap to reliable starter.  In the modern NBA, I'm worried that Sullinger is more of a backup center than a starting power forward. 

We've already got two, maybe three solid, young backup center types (Zeller, Olynyk, Mickey), and none of them has the weight, injury, and attitude / work ethic concerns that Sullinger presents.


I say all of this as a fan of Sullinger since he was drafted.  Loved what he brought to the team as a rookie.  Had high hopes for him based on what he showed in his second season.  I like his game, especially when he's fit and his shot is falling. 

Trying to be objective here, though, and I think of all the young bigs on the team he's the worst bet as far as locking him up to a long term contract.  But, he does have the highest upside.  I'd see what we can get for him in a trade at the deadline.