How Difficult Were the Celtics' 3 Pointers Last Year?

[krumeto]

Inspired by an article on blogabull.com

Seth Partnow published a table with some date on the "openness" of 3 point shots:
http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/02/deep-dives-open-shooters/
http://goo.gl/mxvQ78

I thought it might be interesting to see how the Celtics fare, considering we shot the 3-ball brutally bad last year. Average for the league were around 40% “open” and 8% “wide open.”
       Open    WideOpen 
AB   34.7%  5.2%
IT    15.9%  3.8%
MS   22.4%  5.2%
JC    35.3%  8.3%
JS    52.2%  9.8%
KO   70.1%  7.8%
JJ     54.3%  12.9%
ET    39.0%  5.1%

An obvious first conclusion is that our main four 3P takers at the end of the year (AB, IT, Smart and Crowder) shot less "Open" and "WideOpen" 3s. Is it a poor ball movement? Lack of penetration? Lack of very good offensive players to change the gravitation of the defense? I am not sure.

My guess is, that it is a combination of lack of penetration and lack of offensive threads. A full season of IT should help on both accounts. A more experienced Smart too. Better screen setters and rollers in Amir and Zeller too.

We were 27th in 3P% last year with 32.7%. The league average was 35% or with the rate we were taking them - 47 3 pointers more. That's some 1.7 points per game more. It is a big deal.

[littleteapot]

This is a great find!

I agree that it's mainly lack of penetration and lack of offensive weapons. I'd be interested to see what the averages are by position, because at least for us it just seems like bigs are open most of the time and guards aren't, which makes sense.

I also think if you have 1 great shooter, it makes it easier on the other guys even if you don't have a great penetrator. Avery Bradley kind of had to play the Ray Allen role of taking 3's on the move and not being able to just spot up in the corner, and all the primary ball handlers had to take a bunch of shots off the dribble. Having one JJ Reddick type guy would be able to move around off screens and either make a really high % or force the defense to adjust, which would allow us to get the ball moving easier and allow guys like Bradley to spot up more than having to shoot on the move.

[Who]

An obvious first conclusion is that our main four 3P takers at the end of the year (AB, IT, Smart and Crowder) shot less "Open" and "WideOpen" 3s. Is it a poor ball movement? Lack of penetration? Lack of very good offensive players to change the gravitation of the defense? I am not sure.

Lack of players who can draw a double team / help defenders. Players who can get a team defense scrambling and off balance.

Lack of dribble penetration is a big part of this. Lack of a top quality scorer. Lack of post play.

Isaiah Thomas is the only real player who does this at a good level for Boston. Evan Turner does some as well. Guard play is pivotal for dribble penetration and Marcus Smart's & Avery Bradley's inability to provide adequate dribble penetration last season was a big problem for Boston's offense and made everyone else's life more difficult.

[krumeto]

An obvious first conclusion is that our main four 3P takers at the end of the year (AB, IT, Smart and Crowder) shot less "Open" and "WideOpen" 3s. Is it a poor ball movement? Lack of penetration? Lack of very good offensive players to change the gravitation of the defense? I am not sure.

Lack of players who can draw a double team / help defenders. Players who can get a team defense scrambling and off balance.

Lack of dribble penetration is a big part of this. Lack of a top quality scorer. Lack of post play.

Yeah, basically skewing defenses and getting them on their heels.

Kevin Pelton from ESPN has stats for that called "Respect ratio" and "Gravity score", but I cannot find them for Cs players and in a database to compare with the rest of the league. Here are the leaders for last season:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/2000208-sports-and-racing-nba/70917260

1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors | Respect rating: 97.9
Gravity score: 97.3 | Distraction score: 98.4

2. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks | Respect rating: 96.0
Gravity score: 92.3 | Distraction score: 99.7

3. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors | Respect rating: 94.4
Gravity score: 89.6 | Distraction score: 99.1

[PhoSita]

Is it a poor ball movement? Lack of penetration? Lack of very good offensive players to change the gravitation of the defense? I am not sure.

A general lack of players who command enough defensive attention to create open opportunities.

Also, the only truly effective drive-and-kick player on the team last year was our high-usage bench scorer (IT).  Evan Turner's game involves too much side to side movement and general over-dribbling to be effective at drive-and-kick.

From a team-wide perspective, I'd say the problem in the half-court set is that with very little interior scoring presence, it is really difficult to go inside-out, which is the best way to create open perimeter shooting opportunities.


This year, my hope is that Thomas gets more minutes, Smart improves as a slasher and passer, and the addition of Lee and Johnson, and perhaps the improved fitness of Sullinger, helps to bolster the Celts' interior presence enough to create better perimeter opportunities.

[Celtics4ever]

We have another problem that compounds this, we lack guys who can get open.  IT would be the only one who can routinely beat his man one on one.

[PhoSita]

We have another problem that compounds this, we lack guys who can get open.  IT would be the only one who can routinely beat his man one on one.

Well, beating your man 1-on-1 is not the only way to get open.

Ray Allen was legendary at getting open.  Kyle Korver is his successor in that regard.

I'm not sure which Celtics player is the best at off-ball movement.  Avery played off-ball next to Rondo very well at times, especially cutting baseline.  More recently, not as much.

Smart, for a guy who came up as a point guard in college, moves pretty well without the ball, I think.

Hunter seems like he has a lot of potential in that area.

[littleteapot]

I think our best player at getting open without the ball is Bradley, mostly just because he's so quick.
 The issue is that he's an OK shooter, a below average dribbler and a bad passer once he gets it.

[PhoSita]

I think our best player at getting open without the ball is Bradley, mostly just because he's so quick.
 The issue is that he's an OK shooter, a below average dribbler and a bad passer once he gets it.

I think he's the best on the team at the two-dribble midrange pull-up out of a handoff.  That's his bread-and-butter play.

Unfortunately, it's an inherently inefficient play, but he's good at it, for whatever that's worth.


Turner is probably the best on the team at getting himself open for a 10-15 foot jumper just outside the paint, though again, it's inherently inefficient.  You'd always prefer for a guy in that range to take another couple steps and finish inside or get fouled, but that's not Turner's game.  ET also takes about 10 seconds dribbling to set himself up for that shot.


Actually operating within the flow of the offense and taking a variety of relatively efficient shots -- that's Isaiah, no doubt.  Nobody else on the team really comes close, though I'm hopeful that Smart can start to generate some looks inside the arc, and especially in the paint.

[Celtics4ever]

Well, beating your man 1-on-1 is not the only way to get open.

Ray Allen was legendary at getting open.  Kyle Korver is his successor in that regard.

I'm not sure which Celtics player is the best at off-ball movement.  Avery played off-ball next to Rondo very well at times, especially cutting baseline.  More recently, not as much.

Smart, for a guy who came up as a point guard in college, moves pretty well without the ball, I think.

Hunter seems like he has a lot of potential in that area.

This is true, but the ability to do it on your own is something we lack.   Getting open without that ability requires two players, either a passer or a picker, sometimes three even I suppose. 
One on one play has always been the hall mark of great offensive players.  Breaking guys of the dribble, using moves or using your body in such a way that you can get a shot off, is a very important talent.  Sometimes you don't have time to involve others in the process and good players do not always trust the scrubs on a team.

To be fair, we do not have one shooter in Ray's Allen league to merit running plays for them.  We also do not have the players to set the picks that are that good.   I think Jerebko is probably our best picker last year.  Amir might be that guy this year.    We are not stocked with great dribblers though who can exploit this but we have some nifty passers for the pick and roll although not pure passers.

As for Hunter, he seems to use the "mad bomber" method.   This is when a guy learns to shoot it way behind the three point line.  JJ Reddick mastered this as did Curry.  It works some if a guy gives it you, note Curry is the best at it because he can beat a guy off the dribble if they play him close and shoot it if they do not.   Reddick and Hunter are not off the dribble guys but I give RJ the edge out of those two.

At the end of the day it is about personnel and what they bring to the table.   Do you really think we have guys who can create shots when the playoffs happen?

[littleteapot]

A general lack of players who command enough defensive attention to create open opportunities.

Also, the only truly effective drive-and-kick player on the team last year was our high-usage bench scorer (IT).  Evan Turner's game involves too much side to side movement and general over-dribbling to be effective at drive-and-kick.

From a team-wide perspective, I'd say the problem in the half-court set is that with very little interior scoring presence, it is really difficult to go inside-out, which is the best way to create open perimeter shooting opportunities.


This year, my hope is that Thomas gets more minutes, Smart improves as a slasher and passer, and the addition of Lee and Johnson, and perhaps the improved fitness of Sullinger, helps to bolster the Celts' interior presence enough to create better perimeter opportunities.

This may turn into what my Dad calls "vehemently agreeing" but I think Avery Bradley is actually very good at getting open - but once you give him the ball he either has to huck up a shot or he's useless.

I think this just reinforces what everyone here has been saying - we don't have someone who gets attention from the D. Turner and Thomas are 80% good enough to score 1 on 1, just barely below the threshold where the D has to send extra bodies, so they're weirdly in a good spot on this superstar-less team. Bradley is a great 4th or 5th option (this is an issue for a guard anyway, since you're the easiest guy for the PG to dump the ball to), but he's often forced into plays where a good but not great ball handler is supposed to get set it up for Avery first. The defense is never going to respect that. The issue is that we have 3 guys who should be spot up shooters, but SOMEONE needs to help out Thomas and Turner unless you're going to set picks the whole game.

[hwangjini_1]

I think our best player at getting open without the ball is Bradley, mostly just because he's so quick.
 The issue is that he's an OK shooter, a below average dribbler and a bad passer once he gets it.

I think he's the best on the team at the two-dribble midrange pull-up out of a handoff.  That's his bread-and-butter play.

Unfortunately, it's an inherently inefficient play, but he's good at it, for whatever that's worth.


Turner is probably the best on the team at getting himself open for a 10-15 foot jumper just outside the paint, though again, it's inherently inefficient.  You'd always prefer for a guy in that range to take another couple steps and finish inside or get fouled, but that's not Turner's game.  ET also takes about 10 seconds dribbling to set himself up for that shot.


Actually operating within the flow of the offense and taking a variety of relatively efficient shots -- that's Isaiah, no doubt.  Nobody else on the team really comes close, though I'm hopeful that Smart can start to generate some looks inside the arc, and especially in the paint.

i know, on bradley's long two pointer shooting. yet, if he were to take that same shot but about 3 feet further away it would be a 3 pointer, which would be great.

can he simply not make a shot that is only a few feet further away? this is something i wish he would work on developing more.

[D.o.s.]

I want to say he's tried a few times in his career. For whatever reason it doesn't seem to work.

[mmmmm]

Great find, Krumeto, and some really good discussion by everyone in the comments.

This is the kind of thread that I wish we had more of.

I think the results speak heavily of multiple factors.  IT's low "open" & "wide open" numbers probably are a result of all the attention he commands from the defense.  As others have noted, having another effective 'scoring threat' on the floor seemingly would really help a lot.  'Kinda impressive how efficient he manages to be in spite of all the attention.

Conversely, the extremely high "open" and "wide open" numbers for our 3PT-shooting bigs (Sully, Kelly & Jonas) probably speaks to how little defenses concerned themselves with defending our bigs outside the paint.   I wonder if JJ, given how well he shot last year, will still enjoy those same wide-open looks?

Combining these two things, it may be relevant that of the three bigs mentioned, Sully has the lowest 'openness' numbers, but played by far the smallest share of his own minutes on the floor with Isaiah.

Defensive priorities aren't, of course, the only factors.  How well our offense generated open (or not) looks off picks and simple individual shot selection also have to factor into this as well.

And probably the simple threat of the ability to put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts probably factors into KO's huge "open" rating, yet his strong shooting balanced that with a more modest "wide open" rating.   If he could ever finally play with the confidence his skills should merit, he could be a very impressive offensive force.

Of course, some would counter that Kelly has such huge 'open' ratings primarily because of his reluctance to shoot anything with a defender within 15 feet …

[PhoSita]

This may turn into what my Dad calls "vehemently agreeing"

I have absolutely NO idea what you're talking about.  I'm certain I've NEVER been guilty of agreeing in such a way that it feels to everyone involved that I'm actually disagreeing and just being difficult besides.   NEVER.