2016 Cap Space - Celtics #12

[The One]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-who-should-have-serious-2016-cap-space/?utm_source=Basketball+Insiders&utm_campaign=119f0d3756-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71c9fcb626-119f0d3756-187233185


I guess it's true...everyone will have major cap space next year.  And the Celtics, once again are stuck in the middle...

What are we going to do?

It's like the Celtics always have their hands tied behind their back...

Can anyone talk me off of the ledge?   

[Ilikesports17]

I cant tell you this is good news because frankly it isnt. however, I can tell you why its not quite as bad as you might have thought.

first, there are maybe 3 prizes next summer from what I can tell: Durant Horford Conley. Everybody has cap space.

This means that we probably wont be able to add a star via FA next year. This is bad but its not as bad as it seems.

We have Jerebko and Amir on 2nd year options. We have a bunch of draft picks and some decent trade ammo. As the draft is before FA we will be able to see if we can swing all those picks and assets into a star prior to FA. If we can net ourselves a Melo or  a Boogie or even a Noel or Love or what have you all of a sudden we become legitimate suitors for guys like Horford and Conley and maybe even in our wildest dreams-Kevin Durant.

But dont count on this. The more likely scenario is we make minor moves, maybe consolidate picks and head into FA without a real shot at a big name. This isnt so bad due to Amir and Jerebko. We simply reup them, and go into next season having added some nice picks and cosolidated talent(hopefully) worst case scenario we lose Sully Zeller and Turner but I think those are minor minor losses. We are unique in that we can afford to stand pat and maintain or mountains of cap space as well as our upward trajectory. Very few other teams will be ably to do this.

Many other teams will be forced to overpay to fill holes in their roster.

But heres the really important thing. Brooklyn is 100% relying on FA to rebuild. No FA will want to go there because they are old and really mediocre and not exciting at all. We are basically garunteed that they will be no better than a borderline playoff team for the foreseeable future.

To recap.
having Amir and Jerebkos deals and not losing any key guys to 2016 FA and having a wealth of young players allows us to not overpay and sacrifice flexibility. Not all teams will do this meaning 2017 FA might be our time to strike. Our picks will be hitting their strides and we hopefully will have acquired star #1 to pair with whatever you want to call the rest of our squad.

Brooklyn is screwed more than we are and this guarantees the pick swap and likely the '18 pick to also be rather good.

[jpotter33]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-who-should-have-serious-2016-cap-space/?utm_source=Basketball+Insiders&utm_campaign=119f0d3756-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71c9fcb626-119f0d3756-187233185


I guess it's true...everyone will have major cap space next year.  And the Celtics, once again are stuck in the middle...

What are we going to do?

It's like the Celtics always have their hands tied behind their back...

Can anyone talk me off of the ledge?   

I'm no expert on this kind of stuff, but that does not seem right. My guess is that they're including AJ's and JJ's non-guaranteed contracts in there, which would give us another 17 million or so if need be. I'll do a quick check to see what I get.

EDIT: By my count we only have around 34M in guaranteed salary next year, not counting deals for Sully and Zeller or the non-guaranteed contracts of AJ and JJ. That would put us top 5 in the league for cap space. However, it really only matters that we'd have enough for 2 max contract players, which I'm fairly certain we will have.

[PhoSita]

The decision not to gradually increase the cap really hurt teams like the Celtics that made a point of preserving cap space flexibility.  Now everybody will have tons of room.

I'd say the best piece of good news re: the cap is that with Jerebko and Amir under contract, the Celts won't necessarily have to splurge just to get to the floor next summer if they strike out on major FAs.

Another thing to keep in mind is that both Sullinger and Zeller will be RFAs next summer.  It probably won't make sense for the team to keep both, so don't be surprised if one of them gets traded this year.  They will each get $10+ million per year from somebody next summer.

The frontcourt could look very different a year from now if Amir, Jerebko, and Lee all go elsewhere in free agency next summer and the Celts trade one or both of Sullinger and Zeller.  That may or may not be a good thing.

[D.o.s.]

I think this hurts the prospect of being able to hurl obscene amounts of money at key players, although the Monroe move would indicate that agents and players (and teams) are starting to value being on good teams over visibility and marquee franchises, which lessens the blow somewhat (it doesn't hurt that the C's are a marquee team, either). This also makes for a more-interesting trade market, since the odds of a 'Melodrama situation -- where a player lets it be known he's not resigning with any team save one if he's traded/hits FA -- are diminished.

I expect the next CBA/lockout to create a system that rewards players staying with teams even more than the last one, so I doubt we'll see any major stars hitting the market ala Anthony or James unless they're absolutely dead set on leaving the team.

[saltlover]

So that number is just wrong, on many levels.

1) It includes non-guaranteed deals -- so $17 million for Johnson and Jerebko, and $874k for Corey Walden.

2) It includes qualifying offers to restricted free agents.  This is wrong for two reasons -- firstly, the cap hold is not equal to the qualifying offer (it is typically above it), and two, it includes qualifying offers to players who will clearly not be on the roster next year to get said offer (our three other camp invites other than Walden, who slot in at almost $1.1 million each.

3) It also doesn't count cap holds for 1st round draft picks, which will exist for us, but are highly variable.

Point 2 bothers me the most, because their methodology assumes no cap holds for free agents (ie you let them walk), but then turns around and assigns $10 million in qualifying offers (which will not be accepted, and again, will not equal the cap holds).  And that's just to players with a chance to make the roster, never mind the $3 million to players who will be cut in training camp.

If you stick with their method and only include the players under contract (we'll pick up the option years for KO, Smart, and Young, but not the unguaranteed years of Johnsonand Jerebko), the Celtics would have about $56 million in cap room.  If you add in the cap holds for draft picks, you can take away $4-7 million depending where those picks end up.  So you're looking at about $50 million cap room with a roster of 12 players.  You can add back in cap holds/salaries of players the Celtics want to keep at that point, because they can choose to sign/keep those players if free agency doesn't work out.  But the C's are definitely top 5 in cap room.  The trick is convincing the players to come.

[Celtics4ever]

Cap space is only useful if peeps want to come here.

[chambers]

So that number is just wrong, on many levels.

1) It includes non-guaranteed deals -- so $17 million for Johnson and Jerebko, and $874k for Corey Walden.

2) It includes qualifying offers to restricted free agents.  This is wrong for two reasons -- firstly, the cap hold is not equal to the qualifying offer (it is typically above it), and two, it includes qualifying offers to players who will clearly not be on the roster next year to get said offer (our three other camp invites other than Walden, who slot in at almost $1.1 million each.

3) It also doesn't count cap holds for 1st round draft picks, which will exist for us, but are highly variable.

Point 2 bothers me the most, because their methodology assumes no cap holds for free agents (ie you let them walk), but then turns around and assigns $10 million in qualifying offers (which will not be accepted, and again, will not equal the cap holds).  And that's just to players with a chance to make the roster, never mind the $3 million to players who will be cut in training camp.

If you stick with their method and only include the players under contract (we'll pick up the option years for KO, Smart, and Young, but not the unguaranteed years of Johnsonand Jerebko), the Celtics would have about $56 million in cap room.  If you add in the cap holds for draft picks, you can take away $4-7 million depending where those picks end up.  So you're looking at about $50 million cap room with a roster of 12 players.  You can add back in cap holds/salaries of players the Celtics want to keep at that point, because they can choose to sign/keep those players if free agency doesn't work out.  But the C's are definitely top 5 in cap room.  The trick is convincing the players to come.

Phew, I thought we had at least $40-45 million if we 'wanted' to have it.

Saltlover you are simply awesome.
TP

[KG Living Legend]

Garbage article. If we choose to be one and done with Amir, Jonas. 42 million. Which puts us at a near tie for third with Charlotte.