A big part of this comes down to Noel and his contract expectations. While I think he can be an All-Star or All-Defensive player, I don't like him as a max contract guy. Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut, Serge Ibaka, Tyson Chandler: these are guys who never signed max contracts (well Gasol finally did this summer, but not after his rookie deal), I don't see Noel with a higher ceiling than these guys. Roy Hibbert on the other hand got a max contract, and the Pacers could barely give him away this year.
So if the C's did acquire Noel next summer, he'd be ready for an extension right away, as he'd be entering the last year of his rookie deal. Without knowing the actual pick # or anything about the draft class, if the C's traded for Noel and were able to sign him to an extension right away for <=20% of the cap, I like it. If the C's have to give him 25%-30% of the cap, I don't like it.
Will Noel agree to sign an extension right away for less than the max? That's a key factor here, as I wouldn't want to trade a great asset only to get into a Cavs/Tristan Thompson situation.