#ESPNForecast - Celts get 8th seed, Same Record

[Who]

Milwaukee: young team that will be very good but I'm not sure they're ready to make the leap just yet, still need to see Kidd coach more than one good year before considering him more than a question mark

Milwaukee were pretty bad last year after downgrading from Brandon Knight (29 wins, 23 losses = .557 winning percentage, 45 win pace) to Michael Carter Willliams (10 wins, 15 losses = .400 winning percentage, 33 win pace).

Greg Monroe is a big addition to that team and should put them back up around .500 again but the rest of the team (MCW in particular) have a lot to prove. Then again, on a brighter note, Giannis will be a year older and is a breakout player of the year candidate.

So yes, I agree, I think the Bucks are a question mark. There is a lot of variables at play there (MCW, Giannis, return of Jabari Parker) that could make their season range anywhere from a solid year to a very impressive season.

[jpotter33]

To me, it looks like this:

1st tier: Cleveland

2nd tier: Everyone else

I honestly don't see that much of a separation between 2-8, and I even think teams like Indiana and Charlotte in that same conversation, too. I mean, is it really that crazy to see Boston landing a home court advantage in the first round, especially given possible injuries? For example:

Chicago: new coach, questionable chemistry, bad injury history
Atlanta: lost Carroll (which was really big in my opinion), seemed to really overachieve in regular season last year, certainly injury-prone as well
Miami: Injury-prone
Washington: questionable coaching, loss of PP (which was also really big in my opinion)
Toronto: questionable coaching, might have peaked, loss of AJ
Milwaukee: young team that will be very good but I'm not sure they're ready to make the leap just yet, still need to see Kidd coach more than one good year before considering him more than a question mark

There are pretty big question marks for every team ranked ahead of us (as well as our own, i.e. lack of true star talent), but I think Boston and Milwaukee are the most stable teams in that category considering the factors of injuries, chemistry, coaching, depth etc., though their ceilings aren't as high as the other teams. It really wouldn't surprise me to see Boston land anywhere from 4 - 10 right now, and I think they're just about as likely to be 4th as they are 10th, which suggests that predicting a 7th or 8th seed is probably safe.

I don't disagree with your premise as a whole, but it doesn't make much sense to me that Carroll can be listed as a big loss for Atlanta, but isn't even mentioned as an improvement for Toronto.

I wasn't really listing improvements for teams, e.g. Milwaukee should greatly improve by adding Moose and a healthy Parker, but I didn't list those things, but I should at least justify this answer.

I think losing Carroll is a much bigger loss for Atlanta than it is a gain for Toronto for several reasons:
1) Atlanta losing Carroll is really bad for them because they have no legitimate backup plan for the SF position now. Millsap is simply not a SF, Scott is in trouble with the law for drug charges facing like 25 years, and Sefalosha is older and coming off of a pretty major injury. Their best option right now is either going big with a front line of Millsap, Horford, and Splitter, which will kill them defensively because they won't be able to guard the Lebrons, Anthonys, Georges, and Butlers of the East, or to go with the older Sefalosha who has probably lost another step given this past injury.

2) To me, gaining Carroll but losing AJ is a lateral move. They're both similar players with similar talent levels who happen to play different positions. They also have quite a few swing players who are capable of playing the three position in Derozan, Ross, Johnson, and Caboclo. I do think they may be better offensively by putting Patterson at the 4 with Carroll at the 3, but they definitely lose some of their defensive chops by losing AJ at the 4.

So I just think that he wasn't that major of an upgrade to really justify saying that they'll be much better next year. I think that team has hit its ceiling, and they'll try to blow it up/rebuild sometime soon.

[jpotter33]

Milwaukee: young team that will be very good but I'm not sure they're ready to make the leap just yet, still need to see Kidd coach more than one good year before considering him more than a question mark

Milwaukee were pretty bad last year after downgrading from Brandon Knight (29 wins, 23 losses = .557 winning percentage, 45 win pace) to Michael Carter Willliams (10 wins, 15 losses = .400 winning percentage, 33 win pace).

Greg Monroe is a big addition to that team and should put them back up around .500 again but the rest of the team (MCW in particular) have a lot to prove. Then again, on a brighter note, Giannis will be a year older and is a breakout player of the year candidate.

So yes, I agree, I think the Bucks are a question mark. There is a lot of variables at play there (MCW, Giannis, return of Jabari Parker) that could make their season range anywhere from a solid year to a very impressive season.

Ahh, forgot about the Knight trade for MCW. Just adds another wrinkle to the Eastern conference next year.

[Big333223]

To me, it looks like this:

1st tier: Cleveland

2nd tier: Everyone else

Yeah. Right now, I don't see anyone in the East truly competing with Cleveland. The only team that I see really having a chance would be if all of Miami's parts came together in the best possible way and stayed relatively healthy. Lots of talent there but it's yet to be seen if it all fits.

The Celtics are really interesting because most of the predictions seem to be fighting with what last season's record would indicate (a win total in the 42-46 range) and what the actual roster would indicate (a win total in the range of 32-38).