#ESPNForecast - Celts get 8th seed, Same Record

[Celtics4ever]

ESPN forecasts are liking trying to divine the future from an animal's bones, they are rarely right.

  We have 15 hungry capable players.

  And one was another kind of hungry more so than this kind.  But a new year brings the hope for change.

[D.o.s.]

Same poll last year had Boston winning 28 games so take this with a grain of salt haha.

Yeah funny how revamping almost your entire starting 5 over the year changes how preseason predictions look after the season is in the books.

Because getting rid of the two best veterans on your team always results in a lot more wins.

As for the prediction, it's not bad if you add in the caveat that one team will seriously over perform and one will underperform.

Mike

Doesn't need to result in more wins or losses -- just that the prediction is necessarily going to be imperfect or inaccurate and generally not apply because it was a prediction made in regard to a very different roster.  No need to be such a clever donkey.   

[slamtheking]

Predictions for those that can't see the article:
1. Cleveland - 59-23  +6
2. Chicago - 50-32   same
3. Atlanta - 50-32   -10
4. Miami - 47-35   +10
5. Washington - 46-36    same
6. Toronto  - 44-38    -5
7. Milwaukee - 44-38    +3
8. Boston - 40-42     same
9. Indiana - 39-43   +1
10. Charlotte - 35-47   +2
11. Detroit - 35-47   +5
12. Brooklyn - 30-52   -8
13. Orlando - 30-52   +5
14. NY - 25-57   +8
15. Philly - 19-63    +1

That makes a net of +18 more wins for the Eastern conference with only Atlanta, Toronto and Brooklyn losing more games than last year. 

My take:
I'm not seeing how the Eastern conference gains 18 games on the Western conference where only 2 of the teams there got appreciably worse --> Portland and Dallas.

Overall, I think the top 7 are right but not necessarily in the right order.  I think Miami and Milwaukee will finish higher and Washington will miss Pierce more than they realize.  I'm not sure how Toronto adds Demarre Carroll and gets 5 games worse either.
I also think Orlando and NY outperform Brooklyn as well as Detroit and Charlotte will make the playoff race for the 8th spot a little closer.

My prediction this preseason that the C's will not catch any of the 6 teams that finished better than them last year is backed up in this article as well as my opinion that Miami will pass the C's as well.  The other prediction I made of C's and Indy fighting it out for that last playoff spot is backed up here as well but IMO, Indy finishes better than the C's for that 8th spot.  IMHO, the addition of Paul George and Monte Ellis gives that team 2 better players than anyone we have so despite the addition of David Lee and Amir Johnson (2 PFs that may be playing C for us part of the time and not 2 guys that would fill the other obvious holes we had), we will come up just short in the playoff race.  It'll suck missing the playoffs but as a consolation, I wouldn't mind seeing them finally reaping some lotto-justice and leapfrogging to the top 3 along with that Brooklyn pick.

[littleteapot]

Thanks Slamtheking

I think Cleveland, Chicago and Atlanta and Washington should be the top 3 teams, but not get that many wins. I think the East will be pretty flat at the top and there will not be any real standouts. I don't really get the Miami love at all. I think Washington is clearly better than them and I would think Toronto and Milwaukee and maybe us and Indy are better.

I agree that Indy looks better than us on paper.

[Evantime34]

Predictions for those that can't see the article:
1. Cleveland - 59-23  +6
2. Chicago - 50-32   same
3. Atlanta - 50-32   -10
4. Miami - 47-35   +10
5. Washington - 46-36    same
6. Toronto  - 44-38    -5
7. Milwaukee - 44-38    +3
8. Boston - 40-42     same
9. Indiana - 39-43   +1
10. Charlotte - 35-47   +2
11. Detroit - 35-47   +5
12. Brooklyn - 30-52   -8
13. Orlando - 30-52   +5
14. NY - 25-57   +8
15. Philly - 19-63    +1

That makes a net of +18 more wins for the Eastern conference with only Atlanta, Toronto and Brooklyn losing more games than last year. 

My take:
I'm not seeing how the Eastern conference gains 18 games on the Western conference where only 2 of the teams there got appreciably worse --> Portland and Dallas.

Overall, I think the top 7 are right but not necessarily in the right order.  I think Miami and Milwaukee will finish higher and Washington will miss Pierce more than they realize.  I'm not sure how Toronto adds Demarre Carroll and gets 5 games worse either.
I also think Orlando and NY outperform Brooklyn as well as Detroit and Charlotte will make the playoff race for the 8th spot a little closer.

My prediction this preseason that the C's will not catch any of the 6 teams that finished better than them last year is backed up in this article as well as my opinion that Miami will pass the C's as well.  The other prediction I made of C's and Indy fighting it out for that last playoff spot is backed up here as well but IMO, Indy finishes better than the C's for that 8th spot.  IMHO, the addition of Paul George and Monte Ellis gives that team 2 better players than anyone we have so despite the addition of David Lee and Amir Johnson (2 PFs that may be playing C for us part of the time and not 2 guys that would fill the other obvious holes we had), we will come up just short in the playoff race.  It'll suck missing the playoffs but as a consolation, I wouldn't mind seeing them finally reaping some lotto-justice and leapfrogging to the top 3 along with that Brooklyn pick.

I think Chicago will win less games next year. New coach and a bunch of aging injury plagued players. Thibs squeezed every win he could out of the talent he has, by running his best players into the ground. Hoidberg will give his players more rest and that will cost them wins.

A 10 win increase for the Heat is too much. I don't think Bosh will be healthy the entire year. I know Wade won't be healthy the entire year. Luol Deng is probably already hurt. There is a 50% chance that Whiteside does something stupid and gets suspended/injured. They will win more games but I think 10 is too many.

[Tr1boy]

Celtics will be 4th-6th seed this season.

We are going to be a pain to play against. 

1st half struggling lineup can be replaced by the 2nd unit in the 2nd half. 4th quarter if nothing is working, down by 20 bring out guys like rozier, mickey, jerebko and exhaust the opposing team

[walker834]

espn is usually terrible with their predictions.  I don't see how we aren't a better team than last year.

[slamtheking]

Celtics will be 4th-6th seed this season.

We are going to be a pain to play against. 

1st half struggling lineup can be replaced by the 2nd unit in the 2nd half. 4th quarter if nothing is working, down by 20 bring out guys like rozier, mickey, jerebko and exhaust the opposing team

do think the shuttle from Maine will get Mickey to the Garden in time from the 1st half when they're down 20 so that he has time to suit up and play in the second half? 

you can write this down in pen - C's will have Young, Rozier, Hunter and Mickey in Maine for a good chunk of the season.  Only call-ups will be to fill in for injuries and even then, they'll only see court time in an emergency.

[slamtheking]

espn is usually terrible with their predictions.  I don't see how we aren't a better team than last year.

We ARE a better team than last year.  thing is, so are the other Eastern teams for the most part.  both those that finished ahead of and behind us.  Other than Brooklyn, Atlanta (losing Carroll) and arguably Indy (does having PG, Ellis and Turner more than offset the losses of West and Hibbert), who took a real step backwards?  Wash will miss PP but Wall, Beal and even Porter figure to be better this coming year.

[Donoghus]

I expect a small uptick in wins.  Certainly think they can break .500 but also not expecting them to, all of a sudden, jump up into the upper tier of the East.  At least, not with the current roster is constructed.  Trades could certainly change that.

[sofutomygaha]

There's a concept in forecasting called "the persistence model."

It's a technical term for the idea that, when you have no idea what is going to happen, your best bet is to predict things will continue exactly as they are now. Every season, all the sports magazines and whatnot come out with a big round of expert predictions that basically say next year will be the same as this year, with a few small gut feelings about changes.

When things don't change much, it's a safe choice.

When 1/3 of the players in the league change teams in the off-season, it's mostly worthless.


I predict that every single team in the NBA will finish 41-41. I also predict that my prediction will come in within 5 games of the accuracy of #ESPNForecast.

[jpotter33]

To me, it looks like this:

1st tier: Cleveland

2nd tier: Everyone else

I honestly don't see that much of a separation between 2-8, and I even think teams like Indiana and Charlotte in that same conversation, too. I mean, is it really that crazy to see Boston landing a home court advantage in the first round, especially given possible injuries? For example:

Chicago: new coach, questionable chemistry, bad injury history
Atlanta: lost Carroll (which was really big in my opinion), seemed to really overachieve in regular season last year, certainly injury-prone as well
Miami: Injury-prone
Washington: questionable coaching, loss of PP (which was also really big in my opinion)
Toronto: questionable coaching, might have peaked, loss of AJ
Milwaukee: young team that will be very good but I'm not sure they're ready to make the leap just yet, still need to see Kidd coach more than one good year before considering him more than a question mark

There are pretty big question marks for every team ranked ahead of us (as well as our own, i.e. lack of true star talent), but I think Boston and Milwaukee are the most stable teams in that category considering the factors of injuries, chemistry, coaching, depth etc., though their ceilings aren't as high as the other teams. It really wouldn't surprise me to see Boston land anywhere from 4 - 10 right now, and I think they're just about as likely to be 4th as they are 10th, which suggests that predicting a 7th or 8th seed is probably safe.

[celticsclay]

To me, it looks like this:

1st tier: Cleveland

2nd tier: Everyone else

I honestly don't see that much of a separation between 2-8, and I even think teams like Indiana and Charlotte in that same conversation, too. I mean, is it really that crazy to see Boston landing a home court advantage in the first round, especially given possible injuries? For example:

Chicago: new coach, questionable chemistry, bad injury history
Atlanta: lost Carroll (which was really big in my opinion), seemed to really overachieve in regular season last year, certainly injury-prone as well
Miami: Injury-prone
Washington: questionable coaching, loss of PP (which was also really big in my opinion)
Toronto: questionable coaching, might have peaked, loss of AJ
Milwaukee: young team that will be very good but I'm not sure they're ready to make the leap just yet, still need to see Kidd coach more than one good year before considering him more than a question mark

There are pretty big question marks for every team ranked ahead of us (as well as our own, i.e. lack of true star talent), but I think Boston and Milwaukee are the most stable teams in that category considering the factors of injuries, chemistry, coaching, depth etc., though their ceilings aren't as high as the other teams. It really wouldn't surprise me to see Boston land anywhere from 4 - 10 right now, and I think they're just about as likely to be 4th as they are 10th, which suggests that predicting a 7th or 8th seed is probably safe.

I don't disagree with your premise as a whole, but it doesn't make much sense to me that Carroll can be listed as a big loss for Atlanta, but isn't even mentioned as an improvement for Toronto.

[celticsclay]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13431310/2015-summer-forecast-east-standings


Celts projected by ESPN to finish with a 40-42 record and get the 8th seed.


Nets projected to finish 12th in the conference with a 30-52 record.

It is interesting to see a national "news" outlet also predicting the Nets to have a really big drop. It is more than just hopeful Celtics fans that see the impact of their losses. If Nets finish 3rd worst in the East and win 30 games that is probably a top 6 pick.

[ahonui06]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13431310/2015-summer-forecast-east-standings


Celts projected by ESPN to finish with a 40-42 record and get the 8th seed.


Nets projected to finish 12th in the conference with a 30-52 record.

It is interesting to see a national "news" outlet also predicting the Nets to have a really big drop. It is more than just hopeful Celtics fans that see the impact of their losses. If Nets finish 3rd worst in the East and win 30 games that is probably a top 6 pick.

That would be amazing. Would love a top 6 pick!