Author Topic: Was Danny's plan flawed?  (Read 27910 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #120 on: August 13, 2015, 11:52:58 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239
I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.

To reiterate:
Quote
That summer the Rockets traded away all the pieces that made them a 34-32 team the year before. That included shipping off six players;


    Traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota for the 18th-overall pick
    Traded Samuel Dalembert and the 14th pick to Milwaukee for the 12th pick and three bench players
    Cut Luis Scola under the amnesty provision
    Let Goran Dragic leave in free agency for nothing
    Let Courtney Lee leave in free agency for nothing
    Traded Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a future 1st-round pick


They replaced those six guys with two young free agent role players — Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, who were signed with "poison pill" contracts — and a bunch of rookies.

The Rockets dismantled a .500 team in order to acquire a collection of draft picks and young assets that, it just so happens, was predicted to finish last in the NBA.

That is textbook tanking.

The Rockets made themselves bad in the short term in order to get good in the long term.

No one remembers it like this, though, because the Rockets team that was supposed to lose 61 games never made it onto the court. Just a few days before the 2012-13 season, Morey turned all those assets he got from destroying his 2011-12 roster into a superstar — James Harden.
http://www.businessinsider.com/houston-rockets-tanking-2014-3

The fact that the Harden trade saved them the time of going through an absolutely abysmal season doesn't change the fact that they were absolutely primed to do so, and had the Harden trade not gone through they would have been one of the three worst teams in the league -- blowing up a .500 squad, making little effort to be competitive, and relying on the asset of what was presumably going to be a top lottery pick. How is that anything different from what Philly did when the Bynum trade blew up?

Obviously Houston's turnaround is the exception that proves the rule (the flip side is probably Charlotte in 2010-2011), but I don't see how you can look at what they did that summer as anything but "a full tank" -- unless you wanted to ignore it because it doesn't fit your preconceived emotions about 'tanking'.

Oh, sorry, this is just me being clever. I'm obviously in the wrong here. Tanking is bad. Baby Jeebus hates tanking.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #121 on: August 13, 2015, 11:59:18 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18194
  • Tommy Points: 2747
  • bammokja
People still believe that Ainge has/had a plan?



Ainge clearly has a plan. If you can't understand it, I'm sorry. We are lucky to have a GM that understands your plan A and B doesn't always work. As long as he continues to not panic and  doesn't kill our cap space or undersell our draft picks, the Celtics are in good shape to be involved in any player movement over the next two years. That's the plan. Pretty simple. We can't force teams to trade with us, but we can be in a position to make sure we will always be there when the right team finally decides to make a trade.

Right, so it's less of an actual plan and more of a holding pattern, where, instead of building a team year by year, piece by piece, he's just waiting for someone else to screw up and make a great player available, at which point he says, "I'm all in," and proceeds to throw any and all of our crap into the middle of the poker table in a desperate attempt to fool the potential trading partner that they might actually get something of value in return for their franchise player, when in reality, they're ending up with an expiring contract or two, some average to above average players, and a bunch of draft picks.  Woo ::). That is no way to build a team, and the reality is that with each passing day it becomes more and more clear that Ainge really lucked into KG and Ray via a number of once-in-a-lifetime scenarios and a stupid owner in a summer that will never be duplicated, more than anything else. 

I also don't understand why people are waiting for the next Ray and KG trades, because, again, that was a one of a kind situation.  Plus, how can we trade for similar types of players if we have no Pierce with which to join them?  That's the reality, right now - we don't have any semblance of a core or even a player who might look as though they could be the next great Celtic, and that's what people should be focusing on when discussing the state of this rebuild, imo.  There have now been three drafts since the end of the 12-13 season, which could have yielded us at least part of a group for the future, but instead we really don't have much of anything or anyone to build around, and, frankly, I think it's time for the owners to take the keys from Danny, which, in all honesty, should have happened years ago, imo.

One thing that is pretty certain in a league of uncertainty is that star players become available for trade every 1-3 years. Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, James Harden. All those guys have been traded since the KG trade. The idea is that a trade for a major talent will inevitably come available, as it always has, and you want to be in the best position possible for when that happens. And as it sits right now, most people think Boston, Philly, Phoenix and Orlando have the best trade assets to use in such a trade but Orlando and Philly wouldn't have much of a team if they cashed them in. I think having yourself in a position to strike when that trade arises is a very sound idea.

What's more than that though, is Ainge's plan obviously isn't JUST about waiting for a trade. It's about maintaining cap flexibility with minimal long term commitments so you have the chance to get a FA if one becomes interested in you. That's part of the reason Ainge wanted Stevens because he's the kind of guy people like playing for. On top of that, he cashed in his more veteran assets (KG, Pierce, Rondo, Green) for a plethora of good-great picks. Those picks aren't just assets used to trade, they're for infusing what were already building with additional young talent.

Your right that we don't have a Paul Pierce right now. But Paul Pierce wasn't The Truth after 2 seasons. Smart has that type of 2nd/3rd tier superstar potential. He's our first top ten pick since we traded #5 for Ray Allen. You have to give guys more time than one season. Also, I love how you say Ainge is waiting to dump expiring contracts, average-above average players and picks onto a team like it's crap.

Look back on all those "one of a kind" trades you forgot about. Teams trading star players are generally entering a rebuild. They want young players, cap space and trade assets. Why would you not want that if your Sacramento and your trading the best player by far on your team that can't mange to get over .500, your gonna want those things to aid in your post-Cousins era. The C's are always at/near the top when the best public basketball minds talk about "Teams with the best trade assets" and that's not because we have a pile of crap. Your always one of the most vocal "build through the draft" guys here. Do you not think trading guys with no long term future with you for a handful of extra 1st's is a bad move? Should you only suck hard and use only your two picks every year? Ainge tried hard to tank last year.  Sure, they got Thomas but that was an absolute steal you can't pass up. No one thought they were anything but a lottery team even then.

I really think your confusing a "lack of a plan" with having multiple plans and the flexibility to change between them. Ainge has done very well with being prepared for all possible opportunities. Rebuilds don't get done in two years. If we end up with two top 10 picks this year (a very real possibility) what will you say then? I get questioning the endgame of the rebuild, but Ainge is and has been one of the leagues best GM's for years. Nevermind how poorly we were run before him, but there's absolutely nothing Ainge did this summer that warrants "taking the keys from him". Your totally blind hatred for him really takes away from your often thoughtful and appreciated viewpoints.
bdc, a well deserved tp for an articulate, well argued, and insightful post. thank you.
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #122 on: August 13, 2015, 12:04:16 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20738
  • Tommy Points: 2365
  • Be the posts you wish to see in the world.
I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.

To reiterate:
Quote
That summer the Rockets traded away all the pieces that made them a 34-32 team the year before. That included shipping off six players;


    Traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota for the 18th-overall pick
    Traded Samuel Dalembert and the 14th pick to Milwaukee for the 12th pick and three bench players
    Cut Luis Scola under the amnesty provision
    Let Goran Dragic leave in free agency for nothing
    Let Courtney Lee leave in free agency for nothing
    Traded Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a future 1st-round pick


They replaced those six guys with two young free agent role players — Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, who were signed with "poison pill" contracts — and a bunch of rookies.

The Rockets dismantled a .500 team in order to acquire a collection of draft picks and young assets that, it just so happens, was predicted to finish last in the NBA.

That is textbook tanking.

The Rockets made themselves bad in the short term in order to get good in the long term.

No one remembers it like this, though, because the Rockets team that was supposed to lose 61 games never made it onto the court. Just a few days before the 2012-13 season, Morey turned all those assets he got from destroying his 2011-12 roster into a superstar — James Harden.
http://www.businessinsider.com/houston-rockets-tanking-2014-3

The fact that the Harden trade saved them the time of going through an absolutely abysmal season doesn't change the fact that they were absolutely primed to do so, and had the Harden trade not gone through they would have been one of the three worst teams in the league -- blowing up a .500 squad, making little effort to be competitive, and relying on the asset of what was presumably going to be a top lottery pick. How is that anything different from what Philly did when the Bynum trade blew up?

Obviously Houston's turnaround is the exception that proves the rule (the flip side is probably Charlotte in 2010-2011), but I don't see how you can look at what they did that summer as anything but "a full tank" -- unless you wanted to ignore it because it doesn't fit your preconceived emotions about 'tanking'.

Oh, sorry, this is just me being clever. I'm obviously in the wrong here. Tanking is bad. Baby Jeebus hates tanking.



Ah.  I read the thread until the first Business Insider article (on the Warriors) and didn't get the connection. 

...I can see the argument there, but I'm reluctant to assume they would've been that terrible - Phoenix was supposed to be a bottom 3 team a few years back and nearly made the playoffs, and Parsons was a lot better that year than anyone expected.  Lin/Martin/Parsons/bonus mediocre wing/Asik is probably good for more than 21 wins.

But sure, that fits most of the criteria.  But as always it's hard to know exactly how to divvy out credit vs luck as the cause - without those assets Morey probably doesn't get Harden, but reportedly Houston was OKC's 3rd choice after they couldn't get Beal or Klay Thompson, and of course Morey was only in that position because of the Paul/Pau trade veto saving him from himself a year earlier.  So it's hard to conclude the trade was even a likely outcome of the tank moves.  But I see where you're coming from.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #123 on: August 13, 2015, 12:05:30 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.

Houston very pointedly didn't tank for a few years after Yao retired.  They took a path very similar to what the Celtics are doing now. 

D.o.s. makes a very good point, though, that in advance of the Harden trade they appeared primed to be pretty bad, although I think signing Lin and Asik cuts against that a little bit.  Those are exactly the sort of players you spend money on if you're trying to remain semi-respectable.


The Celts need to hope for an opportunity to come along like the Harden or KG trade, or at least for one of those Nets picks to hit big time, or else they might find themselves in the same spot as the Rockets were --- after three years of hanging out in the middle collecting assets, no closer to building a contender.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #124 on: August 13, 2015, 12:05:42 PM »

Offline Evantime34

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11942
  • Tommy Points: 764
  • Eagerly Awaiting the Next Fantasy Draft
I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.

To reiterate:
Quote
That summer the Rockets traded away all the pieces that made them a 34-32 team the year before. That included shipping off six players;


    Traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota for the 18th-overall pick
    Traded Samuel Dalembert and the 14th pick to Milwaukee for the 12th pick and three bench players
    Cut Luis Scola under the amnesty provision
    Let Goran Dragic leave in free agency for nothing
    Let Courtney Lee leave in free agency for nothing
    Traded Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a future 1st-round pick


They replaced those six guys with two young free agent role players — Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, who were signed with "poison pill" contracts — and a bunch of rookies.

The Rockets dismantled a .500 team in order to acquire a collection of draft picks and young assets that, it just so happens, was predicted to finish last in the NBA.

That is textbook tanking.

The Rockets made themselves bad in the short term in order to get good in the long term.

No one remembers it like this, though, because the Rockets team that was supposed to lose 61 games never made it onto the court. Just a few days before the 2012-13 season, Morey turned all those assets he got from destroying his 2011-12 roster into a superstar — James Harden.
http://www.businessinsider.com/houston-rockets-tanking-2014-3

The fact that the Harden trade saved them the time of going through an absolutely abysmal season doesn't change the fact that they were absolutely primed to do so, and had the Harden trade not gone through they would have been one of the three worst teams in the league -- blowing up a .500 squad, making little effort to be competitive, and relying on the asset of what was presumably going to be a top lottery pick. How is that anything different from what Philly did when the Bynum trade blew up?

Obviously Houston's turnaround is the exception that proves the rule (the flip side is probably Charlotte in 2010-2011), but I don't see how you can look at what they did that summer as anything but "a full tank" -- unless you wanted to ignore it because it doesn't fit your preconceived emotions about 'tanking'.

Oh, sorry, this is just me being clever. I'm obviously in the wrong here. Tanking is bad. Baby Jeebus hates tanking.
Did you think this was tanking at the time though? I remember following those moves that offseason and thinking that they just added two guys who were ready to break out.

After the year that Lin came off and with how Lowry, Dragic played before that a lot of people thought they had simply upgraded by picking up Lin.

This seems a lot more akin to what the C's did this year in getting rid of the players who didn't have a future with the team, while picking up draft picks.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #125 on: August 13, 2015, 12:09:49 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239
I would say that Asik and Lin were two players who had high expected value around the league, and that Morey would not have gone after either if he goal was to keep them on the Rockets roster, rather than wheel and deal (or entice) them towards players like Howard and Harden. He's shown nothing if not a desire to get the 'best possible value' out of everything, and that includes doing things like forcing teams to deal with poison pill contracts and the like.

It's not dissimilar to the way that we signed Johnson and Lee and let Bass walk, but the difference is that we've largely retained our core from last year, while the Rockets totally gutted their own (i.e. tanked).

But, again, like that BI article put so eloquently, losing games is a byproduct of tanking, it's not the organizational goal. That's a nuance that often gets lost -- particularly among the "erhmagerd how can you say anything even neutral about tanking it is worse than infanticide" crowd.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #126 on: August 13, 2015, 12:18:58 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182


But, again, like that BI article put so eloquently, losing games is a byproduct of tanking, it's not the organizational goal.

I don't think it's entirely true to say this.  If this were the case, then we could expect a similar number of teams being very bad even if draft position were completely random and not tied to regular season record at all.

Teams make decisions for the future keeping in mind that losing games in the short term will improve the value of their own draft picks.  It's just not the only thing that teams focus on, despite what some casual fans like to think.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #127 on: August 13, 2015, 12:21:55 PM »

Offline chambers

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7483
  • Tommy Points: 943
  • Boston Celtics= Championships, nothing less.
I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.

Houston very pointedly didn't tank for a few years after Yao retired.  They took a path very similar to what the Celtics are doing now. 

D.o.s. makes a very good point, though, that in advance of the Harden trade they appeared primed to be pretty bad, although I think signing Lin and Asik cuts against that a little bit.  Those are exactly the sort of players you spend money on if you're trying to remain semi-respectable.


The Celts need to hope for an opportunity to come along like the Harden or KG trade, or at least for one of those Nets picks to hit big time, or else they might find themselves in the same spot as the Rockets were --- after three years of hanging out in the middle collecting assets, no closer to building a contender.

I see the idea, but I think Morey was just trying to pull his own Ainge by getting Asik and Lin locked in. He thought they'd have some solid trade material.
I think Morey covered his butt there by knowing that Asik's impact wasn't going to be huge, and that hopefully he could use those poison pill contracts as major assets.
I think Jeremy Lin doesn't move the needle for anyone, I think he's there to sell merchandise and Rockets branding to Yao Ming's countrymen.

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #128 on: August 13, 2015, 12:23:32 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239


But, again, like that BI article put so eloquently, losing games is a byproduct of tanking, it's not the organizational goal.

I don't think it's entirely true to say this.  If this were the case, then we could expect a similar number of teams being very bad even if draft position were completely random and not tied to regular season record at all.

Teams make decisions for the future keeping in mind that losing games in the short term will improve the value of their own draft picks.  It's just not the only thing that teams focus on, despite what some casual fans like to think.

I think your second paragraph is largely saying what that sentence is, though.

Another good paragraph from the article, which I hadn't quoted earlier:

Quote
Tanking is not losing as many games as possible and praying to draft the next LeBron James.

No NBA team is doing that.

The Philadelphia 76ers aren't losing games for the sake of losing games. They're losing games because they aggressively shipped off veterans in exchange for young assets and draft picks before the 2013-14 season. It's a strategy that gives them cap flexibility, trade value, and countless roster possibilities going forward, but also makes them historically bad right now.

As with the Rockets in that July of 2012 when everyone thought they were going to be awful, losing is the unfortunate byproduct of a completely rational strategy that can work.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #129 on: August 13, 2015, 12:32:32 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20738
  • Tommy Points: 2365
  • Be the posts you wish to see in the world.


But, again, like that BI article put so eloquently, losing games is a byproduct of tanking, it's not the organizational goal.

I don't think it's entirely true to say this.  If this were the case, then we could expect a similar number of teams being very bad even if draft position were completely random and not tied to regular season record at all.

Teams make decisions for the future keeping in mind that losing games in the short term will improve the value of their own draft picks.  It's just not the only thing that teams focus on, despite what some casual fans like to think.

While I still consider the recent broader definition of "tanking" to mostly just be "rebuilding", I agree that it's fair to say that losing games isn't the ONLY reason teams do this, but is absolutely part of the goal, since high draft picks are so valuable.  Calling it a byproduct makes it almost seem coincidental to the other goals, which it's definitely not.


...oddly, thinking on it, it seems like our current strategy largely fulfills basically every one of those "other goals" - we have great cap flexibility, good trade value (at least contract-wise, and some talent to boot), loads of draft picks and "countless roster possibilities moving forward" (some tremendous weasel wording there, BI guy).  Even the vets we just added are on expiring or quasi-expiring contracts.   So I guess we are tanking, we're just skipping the part where we coincidentally lose a bunch of games  :D
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 12:41:56 PM by foulweatherfan »

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #130 on: August 13, 2015, 12:43:08 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239

...oddly, thinking on it, it seems like our current strategy largely fulfills basically every one of those "other goals" - we have great cap flexibility, good trade value (at least contract-wise, and some talent to boot), loads of draft picks and "countless roster possibilities moving forward" (some tremendous weasel wording there, BI guy).  Even the vets we just added are on expiring or quasi-expiring contracts.   So I guess we are tanking, we're just skipping the part where we coincidentally lose a bunch of games  :D

That's the real value of the Nets trade -- imagine if we had to do all of this sans those assets.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #131 on: August 13, 2015, 12:49:07 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
I think you could say that tanking is a word that outside observers use to describe a symptom of rebuilding rather than a rebuilding strategy itself.

Sometimes when teams rebuild, they purposefully engineer their teams downwards as part of an effort to focus on maximizing the team's assets and competitive status 3, 4, or 5 years down the road, instead of focusing on the present.  The reason it makes so much sense to do that is because of the way the draft works.  That's not the only way teams rebuild, though, and it's not the only reason a team might make moves to get worse in the present.

My feeling is that if the draft were changed -- say to the "Draft Wheel" -- we might see more teams try to rebuild the way Ainge has done instead of factoring in losing as a positive outcome in their strategic equation.  It wouldn't "hurt' you so much to focus on building a team that can win more games in the present, so long as you maintained flexibility and didn't sacrifice development time that would otherwise go to younger players with a long term future on the team.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #132 on: August 13, 2015, 12:53:49 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

  • NCE
  • Cedric Maxwell
  • **************
  • Posts: 14061
  • Tommy Points: 1239
The draft wheel is dangerous, though, because being bad is inevitable. It's easy to rile up some righteous indignation about the Philly or OKC method but if you're actually paying attention to the league you'll realize that does nothing for a team that's perpetually struggling like, say, the Kings.

I think it was Mark Cuban that said being able to sell hope to the fanbase is a very important part of teams that are not contending for championships. The draft wheel makes that much harder, and that's even before you get into how strategic commitments to the draft pool would factor into it.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #133 on: August 13, 2015, 01:07:35 PM »

Offline ahonui06

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 614
  • Tommy Points: 27
The draft wheel is dangerous, though, because being bad is inevitable. It's easy to rile up some righteous indignation about the Philly or OKC method but if you're actually paying attention to the league you'll realize that does nothing for a team that's perpetually struggling like, say, the Kings.

I think it was Mark Cuban that said being able to sell hope to the fanbase is a very important part of teams that are not contending for championships. The draft wheel makes that much harder, and that's even before you get into how strategic commitments to the draft pool would factor into it.

Just hopeful that Brooklyn has a terrible year and the draft wheel is favorable for the Celtics.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #134 on: August 13, 2015, 05:25:23 PM »

Offline Casperian

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3501
  • Tommy Points: 545
But, again, like that BI article put so eloquently, losing games is a byproduct of tanking, it's not the organizational goal. That's a nuance that often gets lost -- particularly among the "erhmagerd how can you say anything even neutral about tanking it is worse than infanticide" crowd.

Please

You're banging your head into a brick wall. Most fans are driven by emotions before logic, and that same emotion prevents them from looking at both sides of an argument.

As you guys can see, labeling and a lack of nuance exist on "both sides". Neither side has the right to act holier than the other.

So let's get back to basics and the core of our conundrum here. Please correct me if you find anything wrong with my following statements.

We all agree that we need stars to compete (I feel like I've made this post several times over the last few years, but oh well.)

Broadly speaking, there are exactly three ways to acquire one of these prized assets: the draft, trades, and free agency. Ideally, we'd want to pursue all three of these methods. However, certain dynamics in these methods work against each other, which forces us (and any rebuilding team, really) to make a decision.

If you believe our best bet to acquire a star is through the draft, you want us to finish the season with a comparably bad record, ideally the worst record in the league, to give us the best chance at a top pick in the following lottery. However, to reach this level of "bad", you would have to actively work towards it. You need a roster full of d-leaguers, your coach and best players have to be in on it, you have to sit the hot hand at the end of games if he could single-handedly win you the game etc.
If you manage to succesfully execute this strategy, you will have a 25% chance at the top pick. This, of course, has to happen when a potential superstar talent declared, and then he has to develop as expected. As you can easily see, this strategy involves many qualifiers even after you've done everything in your power to maximize your chances.

All of this, however, goes more or less completely against the strategy of acquiring established Star Player X through free agency or trade. The problem is as following: in free agency, players mainly look for two things, money and a chance to win games/a championship. Now, first tier star players (the ones we're looking for) will get basically the same money wherever they go, which means, the opportunity to win championships becomes even more important.

It should be obvious that maximizing your chance at drafting #1 makes it nearly impossible to sell an established star player on immediate success. In most cases, this is not only true for the year after you've drafted your star talent (if you're lucky), but for several seasons after, as it often takes several years before the rookie fulfills his potential and develops into the kind of star player who has enough gravitas and pull to transform your franchise into a desirable location in free agency.

This is also more or less true if you want to acquire Star Player X through a trade. Contrary to popular belief, trading for an established star player is not as easy as simply offering the best package in exchange. First of all, the star player and his current franchise have to agree that going seperate ways is in the best interest of both parties. Obviously, franchises with a first tier star generally don't want to part with him. Usually, this only happens when, for whatever reason, the franchise has been unable to surround the star with an adequate supporting cast to compete for a championship, and the player is threatening to leave his current team in free agency for nothing in return.

Any trade involving a first tier star player is a completely different beast than trades consisting only of bench and rotation players. If a star player gets traded, he (and his agent) usually has some kind of pull to choose his next destination. Any franchise who trades the farm for a star player wants some kind of assurance that he will stay with them for the forseeable future. Anything else would be the equivalent of competitive suicide.
Thus, if you just spent the last season trying to game your way into a top pick, it is as unreasonable to trade for an established star as it is unlikely to sign him in free agency, especially since you probably have to part with your top pick to acquire Star Player X, leaving you with a still frustrated star player and the d-leaguers you filled your roster with to pursue the top pick.

Consequently, to maximize your chances at acquiring a star through free agency or trade, both of these strategies require a similar/synergistic approach, one that works diametrically opposed to "the draft strategy". Here, you actually have to deliver somewhat respectable results during the season to sell any star player on joining your team, and you need to have a roster full of at least servicable players on flexible contracts, so that even after you trade for Star Player X, you are still able to surround him with a good supporting cast.
If you manage to pull either of these strategies off, though, you have to deal with far less qualifiers in turning your franchise around, as the established star player immediately transforms your franchise into a desirable location for other stars and quality role players.

Now, whichever "side"of this quagmire you may fall on, I hope you understand that the FO had to make a decision on which strategy to pursue, and that, no matter which one they would ultimately choose, there would be people p---ed at them, there would be good arguments on both sides, and both approaches would need a bit of luck to ultimately succeed...but they still had to make a decision.

If we all can agree on that, then I believe there's no need for either "side" to label, taunt or belittle the other.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 05:47:09 PM by Casperian »
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

3 down, 7 to go.