Author Topic: Was Danny's plan flawed?  (Read 27910 times)

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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #105 on: August 12, 2015, 11:59:40 AM »

Offline kraidstar

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And, for the record, Zeller, Turner, Crowder and Jerebko are fringe rotation guys. You're deluded if you think otherwise.

That's maybe a bit harsh.  I think Zeller, Crowder, and Jerebko, at least, would compete for 15-20 minutes a night on most teams in the league.  Zeller is probably the most objectively valuable of them due to scarcity of talent at his position.  It's true that they were all fringe rotation players before they came to the Celtics.

But yeah, none of them is exactly an indispensable piece.  They are all pretty replaceable.

crowder is an elite defender, and is solid at most everything. his jump-shooting is a little suspect, but even that isn't really bad. he would have a role on most contenders, just look at tony allen in memphis. he impacts the game physically (which, like marcus smart, doesn't show up on the stat sheet), the c's play great when he's on the court. IMO he was one of the primary reasons for the second-half turnaround last year.

zeller is a very efficient interior-scoring big man, his numbers are way better than most bench guys. i wish he was tougher, but to call him "fringe" is absurd.

and jonas' numbers are pretty much the same as the much-worshiped chandler parsons - he's 2 years older, an inch taller, 4 pounds heavier; their per-36 numbers are nearly identical, and JJ was buried behind drummond, smith, and monroe in detroit. turns out he's quicker and more agile than we thought, and can cover the 3; and now that he's on a team that actually moves the ball, so his offense should improve.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #106 on: August 12, 2015, 12:02:45 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Depends on how you define 'fringe', I suppose.

I see someone like Zeller or Jerebko maxing out at <10MPG on a 50 win/contending team. Likewise for Turner. Crowder's better than the rest of them, but like Pho said, they're all easily replaceable bench-level performers.
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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #107 on: August 12, 2015, 12:16:38 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Depends on how you define 'fringe', I suppose.

I see someone like Zeller or Jerebko maxing out at <10MPG on a 50 win/contending team. Likewise for Turner. Crowder's better than the rest of them, but like Pho said, they're all easily replaceable bench-level performers.

I disagree on Zeller. If he pulls his range out to the 3 point line he's either a starter or first guy off the bench on a contender. Even now he's a pretty solid rotation guys given his efficiency and intelligence. 

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #108 on: August 12, 2015, 12:18:33 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Fair enough. What do you envision his role would be on a team (and this is a little unreasonable hypothetical I guess) like the Celtics or the 76ers, assuming either squad was filled with the talent to win 55+/- games?

I guess I could see 8th man? Second big off the bench? Maybe I need to get more excited about him?
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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #109 on: August 12, 2015, 12:21:38 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Depends on how you define 'fringe', I suppose.

I see someone like Zeller or Jerebko maxing out at <10MPG on a 50 win/contending team. Likewise for Turner. Crowder's better than the rest of them, but like Pho said, they're all easily replaceable bench-level performers.

I think Turner's skillset makes him a tough guy to fit into a rotation for a lot of really good teams.

Crowder, Jerebko, Zeller -- these guys have solid skillsets that would get them closer to 15-20 minutes on better teams.  The Cavs could have used any of them in the Finals, for example.  But they'd never have a major role, and yeah, they'd be pretty replaceable.

That's really the point with the Celts.  They're not giving rotation minutes to anybody who wouldn't get minutes on a decent team.  But at the same time, only a couple of the guys in their rotation would have a major, indispensable role on a good team.



I think the right inquiry here is "What sort of minutes would this guy get playing for the Spurs / Warriors / Cavs?"
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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #110 on: August 12, 2015, 11:48:16 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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People still believe that Ainge has/had a plan?



Ainge clearly has a plan. If you can't understand it, I'm sorry. We are lucky to have a GM that understands your plan A and B doesn't always work. As long as he continues to not panic and  doesn't kill our cap space or undersell our draft picks, the Celtics are in good shape to be involved in any player movement over the next two years. That's the plan. Pretty simple. We can't force teams to trade with us, but we can be in a position to make sure we will always be there when the right team finally decides to make a trade.

Right, so it's less of an actual plan and more of a holding pattern, where, instead of building a team year by year, piece by piece, he's just waiting for someone else to screw up and make a great player available, at which point he says, "I'm all in," and proceeds to throw any and all of our crap into the middle of the poker table in a desperate attempt to fool the potential trading partner that they might actually get something of value in return for their franchise player, when in reality, they're ending up with an expiring contract or two, some average to above average players, and a bunch of draft picks.  Woo ::). That is no way to build a team, and the reality is that with each passing day it becomes more and more clear that Ainge really lucked into KG and Ray via a number of once-in-a-lifetime scenarios and a stupid owner in a summer that will never be duplicated, more than anything else. 

I also don't understand why people are waiting for the next Ray and KG trades, because, again, that was a one of a kind situation.  Plus, how can we trade for similar types of players if we have no Pierce with which to join them?  That's the reality, right now - we don't have any semblance of a core or even a player who might look as though they could be the next great Celtic, and that's what people should be focusing on when discussing the state of this rebuild, imo.  There have now been three drafts since the end of the 12-13 season, which could have yielded us at least part of a group for the future, but instead we really don't have much of anything or anyone to build around, and, frankly, I think it's time for the owners to take the keys from Danny, which, in all honesty, should have happened years ago, imo.

One thing that is pretty certain in a league of uncertainty is that star players become available for trade every 1-3 years. Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, James Harden. All those guys have been traded since the KG trade. The idea is that a trade for a major talent will inevitably come available, as it always has, and you want to be in the best position possible for when that happens. And as it sits right now, most people think Boston, Philly, Phoenix and Orlando have the best trade assets to use in such a trade but Orlando and Philly wouldn't have much of a team if they cashed them in. I think having yourself in a position to strike when that trade arises is a very sound idea.

What's more than that though, is Ainge's plan obviously isn't JUST about waiting for a trade. It's about maintaining cap flexibility with minimal long term commitments so you have the chance to get a FA if one becomes interested in you. That's part of the reason Ainge wanted Stevens because he's the kind of guy people like playing for. On top of that, he cashed in his more veteran assets (KG, Pierce, Rondo, Green) for a plethora of good-great picks. Those picks aren't just assets used to trade, they're for infusing what were already building with additional young talent.

Your right that we don't have a Paul Pierce right now. But Paul Pierce wasn't The Truth after 2 seasons. Smart has that type of 2nd/3rd tier superstar potential. He's our first top ten pick since we traded #5 for Ray Allen. You have to give guys more time than one season. Also, I love how you say Ainge is waiting to dump expiring contracts, average-above average players and picks onto a team like it's crap.

Look back on all those "one of a kind" trades you forgot about. Teams trading star players are generally entering a rebuild. They want young players, cap space and trade assets. Why would you not want that if your Sacramento and your trading the best player by far on your team that can't mange to get over .500, your gonna want those things to aid in your post-Cousins era. The C's are always at/near the top when the best public basketball minds talk about "Teams with the best trade assets" and that's not because we have a pile of crap. Your always one of the most vocal "build through the draft" guys here. Do you not think trading guys with no long term future with you for a handful of extra 1st's is a bad move? Should you only suck hard and use only your two picks every year? Ainge tried hard to tank last year.  Sure, they got Thomas but that was an absolute steal you can't pass up. No one thought they were anything but a lottery team even then.

I really think your confusing a "lack of a plan" with having multiple plans and the flexibility to change between them. Ainge has done very well with being prepared for all possible opportunities. Rebuilds don't get done in two years. If we end up with two top 10 picks this year (a very real possibility) what will you say then? I get questioning the endgame of the rebuild, but Ainge is and has been one of the leagues best GM's for years. Nevermind how poorly we were run before him, but there's absolutely nothing Ainge did this summer that warrants "taking the keys from him". Your totally blind hatred for him really takes away from your often thoughtful and appreciated viewpoints.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #111 on: August 13, 2015, 02:08:08 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Right, so it's less of an actual plan and more of a holding pattern, where, instead of building a team year by year, piece by piece, he's just waiting for someone else to screw up and make a great player available, at which point he says, "I'm all in," and proceeds to throw any and all of our crap into the middle of the poker table in a desperate attempt to fool the potential trading partner that they might actually get something of value in return for their franchise player, when in reality, they're ending up with an expiring contract or two, some average to above average players, and a bunch of draft picks.  Woo ::). That is no way to build a team, and the reality is that with each passing day it becomes more and more clear that Ainge really lucked into KG and Ray via a number of once-in-a-lifetime scenarios and a stupid owner in a summer that will never be duplicated, more than anything else. 

Phew, I'm glad you're not using any hyperbole to misrepresent our situation just so you can justify your emotions.

That would be awkward.

Hmm, well, I wasn't trying to 'justify my emotions' ::), but then again I'm only the guy who wrote it ::), and in what way(s) have I used hyperbole to 'misrepresent' our situation?

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #112 on: August 13, 2015, 03:12:33 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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People still believe that Ainge has/had a plan?



Ainge clearly has a plan. If you can't understand it, I'm sorry. We are lucky to have a GM that understands your plan A and B doesn't always work. As long as he continues to not panic and  doesn't kill our cap space or undersell our draft picks, the Celtics are in good shape to be involved in any player movement over the next two years. That's the plan. Pretty simple. We can't force teams to trade with us, but we can be in a position to make sure we will always be there when the right team finally decides to make a trade.

Right, so it's less of an actual plan and more of a holding pattern, where, instead of building a team year by year, piece by piece, he's just waiting for someone else to screw up and make a great player available, at which point he says, "I'm all in," and proceeds to throw any and all of our crap into the middle of the poker table in a desperate attempt to fool the potential trading partner that they might actually get something of value in return for their franchise player, when in reality, they're ending up with an expiring contract or two, some average to above average players, and a bunch of draft picks.  Woo ::). That is no way to build a team, and the reality is that with each passing day it becomes more and more clear that Ainge really lucked into KG and Ray via a number of once-in-a-lifetime scenarios and a stupid owner in a summer that will never be duplicated, more than anything else. 

I also don't understand why people are waiting for the next Ray and KG trades, because, again, that was a one of a kind situation.  Plus, how can we trade for similar types of players if we have no Pierce with which to join them?  That's the reality, right now - we don't have any semblance of a core or even a player who might look as though they could be the next great Celtic, and that's what people should be focusing on when discussing the state of this rebuild, imo.  There have now been three drafts since the end of the 12-13 season, which could have yielded us at least part of a group for the future, but instead we really don't have much of anything or anyone to build around, and, frankly, I think it's time for the owners to take the keys from Danny, which, in all honesty, should have happened years ago, imo.

One thing that is pretty certain in a league of uncertainty is that star players become available for trade every 1-3 years. Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, James Harden. All those guys have been traded since the KG trade. The idea is that a trade for a major talent will inevitably come available, as it always has, and you want to be in the best position possible for when that happens. And as it sits right now, most people think Boston, Philly, Phoenix and Orlando have the best trade assets to use in such a trade but Orlando and Philly wouldn't have much of a team if they cashed them in. I think having yourself in a position to strike when that trade arises is a very sound idea.

What's more than that though, is Ainge's plan obviously isn't JUST about waiting for a trade. It's about maintaining cap flexibility with minimal long term commitments so you have the chance to get a FA if one becomes interested in you. That's part of the reason Ainge wanted Stevens because he's the kind of guy people like playing for. On top of that, he cashed in his more veteran assets (KG, Pierce, Rondo, Green) for a plethora of good-great picks. Those picks aren't just assets used to trade, they're for infusing what were already building with additional young talent.

Your right that we don't have a Paul Pierce right now. But Paul Pierce wasn't The Truth after 2 seasons. Smart has that type of 2nd/3rd tier superstar potential. He's our first top ten pick since we traded #5 for Ray Allen. You have to give guys more time than one season. Also, I love how you say Ainge is waiting to dump expiring contracts, average-above average players and picks onto a team like it's crap.

Look back on all those "one of a kind" trades you forgot about. Teams trading star players are generally entering a rebuild. They want young players, cap space and trade assets. Why would you not want that if your Sacramento and your trading the best player by far on your team that can't mange to get over .500, your gonna want those things to aid in your post-Cousins era. The C's are always at/near the top when the best public basketball minds talk about "Teams with the best trade assets" and that's not because we have a pile of crap. Your always one of the most vocal "build through the draft" guys here. Do you not think trading guys with no long term future with you for a handful of extra 1st's is a bad move? Should you only suck hard and use only your two picks every year? Ainge tried hard to tank last year.  Sure, they got Thomas but that was an absolute steal you can't pass up. No one thought they were anything but a lottery team even then.

I really think your confusing a "lack of a plan" with having multiple plans and the flexibility to change between them. Ainge has done very well with being prepared for all possible opportunities. Rebuilds don't get done in two years. If we end up with two top 10 picks this year (a very real possibility) what will you say then? I get questioning the endgame of the rebuild, but Ainge is and has been one of the leagues best GM's for years. Nevermind how poorly we were run before him, but there's absolutely nothing Ainge did this summer that warrants "taking the keys from him". Your totally blind hatred for him really takes away from your often thoughtful and appreciated viewpoints.

I never knew that viewpoints were thoughtful, let alone appreciated, but thanks for that, lol ;D. My whole thing is that he seems to be assembling the same kind of players with no overall vision for the team.  Yes, I know that rebuilds take longer, much longer, than 2 years, but we'd be in a better spot today if he'd taken better players in the first place.  You can't just keep taking shooting guards in point guards' bodies and undersized 4s and expect to get the kind of talent needed to trade for a superstar, let alone build around, and I'm not saying to trade Smart, although I do think that he'd put up much better numbers on a team that lets him play to his strengths.  It takes real skill (sarcasm) to take a slasher and midrange shooter and decide that it'd be better for everyone if he just chucked 3s all year.  Wait, what?

Also, who are these players who have no future with the team that you'd trade for first rounders, because that's probably subjective, anyway, unless you were talking about a guy like Gerald Wallace when he was here and no one, not even Billy King ;D, would give up a first for him.  Do you mean KO, Sully, and Bradley, or other guys? 

Now, if we do get two top ten picks next year, I'd be thrilled.  That is, until draft day, because I can see him passing up two great players, for example, to trade the picks for a disgruntled guy who happens to be on a team that can actually find talent in the draft.  The reason why I labeled our stuff as crap is because of how the KG trade looked a year or two afterwards, when Gerald Green was playing in Russia and Ryan Gomes was barely in the league, while Big Al got hurt.   

As for last year, there was no point in getting Isaiah Thomas, and I don't care how 'great' his contract is ::), I care about how long it lasts, and we didn't have to make that deal at all.  Why not just keep Rondo and Thornton, let the latter walk at the end of the year so we still have flexibility, financially, trade Green for a first, miss the playoffs, and wind up with Justise Winslow or Myles Turner, etc., in addition to getting other guys in the draft and afterwards in terms of free agents, and there were quite a few good ones this year, I might add.  You have to get the players before you can start to compete, and, again, if Danny had drafted well, our team would at least have a promising frontcourt trio in Dieng, Vonleh, and Winslow, not to mention the other guys, but that's what I mean by year by year, piece by piece.  At least you can see a plan at that point, because we don't even have a foundation right now. 

Furthermore, if you really want to move your players for an established one down the road, like you said, as opposed to actually drafting one, yourself (what a concept (sarcasm) ::)), at least you'd have some enticing and versatile talent to move instead of a bunch of guys who play the same two positions.  Woo ::). I just think that waiting is dumb.  Build the team, first, and if something pops up, sure, at least look into it, but I just prefer to build a team through the draft, for the most part, especially if you want to have a long title run. 

Btw, I only used the 'throwing all of our crap at another team' analogy because I think that the 'cashing in all of his chips' one has been overused.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #113 on: August 13, 2015, 04:07:55 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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 ::)

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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #114 on: August 13, 2015, 09:24:04 AM »

Offline Casperian

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And then you sign James Harden and no one cares.

No, you don't, because James Harden doesn't care for your crappy d-league team.

Sorry, you trade for James Harden and then build a 50 win team out of the scraps you've assembled to tank through the season.

Is that better?

Certainly better than not having the option, at all, which would be the case if all you have is a bunch of d-leaguers.
In the summer of 2017, I predicted this team would not win a championship for the next 10 years.

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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #115 on: August 13, 2015, 10:31:32 AM »

Offline chambers

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imo Ainges biggest mistake was not dumping Rondo, Green and Bass when he traded KG & Pierce.

we eventually ended up trading Rondo and Green for nothing, and Bass walked and we got nothing to show for it- we were all hoping for All Star, nightly triple double Rondo

everybody was saying "we shouldn't just take any old deal". and with Rondo and Green we did. and now in retrospect maybe we should have taken one of them low-ball offers for bass.

...and before some genius chimes in and says "hmmm? Crowder is nothing?" don't embarrass yourself.

Hard to trade Rondo when his value is at an all time low with an ACL injury.
No one knew how Rondo would return- we were all hoping for All Star, nightly triple double Rondo, and Ainge had the hard task of talking up Rondos value and doing his usual marketing whilst contemplating whether or not the returning Rondo could be a top 3 player on a championship team.

Getting Love here with Rondo was his goal but unfortunately the Cavs hit the 2% lottery ticket.

I'll completely disagree about our return on Rondo too.
Ainge's savvy nose smelt the desperation dripping from Cuban's brow. The Mavs wanted to push their luck with Parsons, Monta and Dirk and he managed to weasel the protection on their pick down to top 7. He also got us Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder-which worked out pretty well for us.

If that Dallas pick falls into the top 10 for us, and we got Jae Crowder+Wright's 2nd round picks....
Ainge is going to further grow his 'looting pirate' legacy.
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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #116 on: August 13, 2015, 10:54:03 AM »

Offline chambers

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So, let me get this straight, you're building up a strawman of 'the full tank' and then ignoring the most recent example of a team that pulled that off because, hey, they happened to swing exactly the kind of turnaround that we're all hoping for?

Seems like a healthy way to approach the discussion.

And, for the record, Zeller, Turner, Crowder and Jerebko are fringe rotation guys. You're deluded if you think otherwise.


You're banging your head into a brick wall. Most fans are driven by emotions before logic, and that same emotion prevents them from looking at both sides of an argument.
Speaking of moving the goal posts...how ironic.

TP btw.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #117 on: August 13, 2015, 11:34:47 AM »

Offline MBunge

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So, let me get this straight, you're building up a strawman of 'the full tank' and then ignoring the most recent example of a team that pulled that off because, hey, they happened to swing exactly the kind of turnaround that we're all hoping for?

Seems like a healthy way to approach the discussion.

And, for the record, Zeller, Turner, Crowder and Jerebko are fringe rotation guys. You're deluded if you think otherwise.

Now, some folks were able to respond to my post by challenging the premise that the "full tank" is as bad as I made it out to be.  That's a fair response and I didn't feel the need to argue with them because it's a reasonable point.  There are plenty of examples of teams that tank while still keeping some decent young talent on the roster.

Your response, however, was neither fair nor reasonable.  Your response was "It doesn't matter how horrible we make our team, we'll just trade for the equivalent of James Harden and everything will be right with the world."

That's dumb.  It's the same thing as saying "I don't need to plan for retirement.  I'll just win the lottery."

If you really care about healthy discussion, stop trying to be such a clever donkey.  You're not really that clever.

Mike

Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #118 on: August 13, 2015, 11:35:42 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Considering you ignored the entire context of my point (I would encourage you to read the thread and see that Business Insider's article for full context, which I assumed I wouldn't have to reiterate after only a page in order to make a reference to it) to offer a one line reply, I thought it was fair.

Feel free to keep misrepresenting my position to your heart's content, though. I am extraordinarily upset that you don't think I'm that clever.
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Re: Was Danny's plan flawed?
« Reply #119 on: August 13, 2015, 11:49:19 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I'm confused how Houston went "full tank" (however slippery that definition might be) without ever even dropping below .500.