Zeller's Trade Value

[Jon]

Let me preface this by saying I am NOT a big fan of making a consolidating deal just to clear up playing time. I'd rather have guys fight it out and have some guys ride the pine than make a bad trade.

That said, it seems most deals proposed on this board suggest moving some combination of Bradley/Turner with Sullinger/Olynyk.  But to that, I'd ask, what might Tyler Zeller's value be?

 Trade value-wise, he may appeal to teams more than Sully and Olynyk, since at least on paper, he's a "true center."

However, the reality seems to be that he's not that much more of a center than most of the other bigs on the team when you factor in that he has short arms (mitigating some of his height) and isn't much of a shot blocker.

To add to that, I think there's an argument to be made that some of our best lineups may include either Olynyk/Sullinger with Johnson/Lee given the ability for the former to stretch the floor combined with the athleticism and pick and roll ability of the latter. If that is the case, Zeller's role may be diminished anyway.

So, do you think we may be able to actually get more for a young center who had pretty darn good stats last year?  Might he be more of an asset (or at least an equal asset) than Sullinger with his weight issues and Olynyk and his perceived lack of athleticism and/or position?

[saltlover]

I think Zeller, Olynyk, and Sullinger all have different strengths and weaknesses, and thus different appeal depending upon the team to which they're traded.  That said, I also think Zeller has the least value to other teams, as he really can only play one position (center) instead of two like Sully and Olynyk can.  Furthermore, he's got the largest cap hold next season, which in the year of cap frenzy, teams will care about.  However, for us I think Sully has the least value, as he's a RFA next year, but also his role this year can probably be better filled by David Lee.  I think Olynyk would have the most value, as he is cost-controlled for an additional season.  So the times I propose trades with a big, I go with Sully if I think the other team needs less value, and Olynyk if they need more, because I think Sully is better for other teams than our own, and maybe the other way around for Zeller.

[Celtics4ever]

However, for us I think Sully has the least value, as he's a RFA next year, but also his role this year can probably be better filled by David Lee.  I think Olynyk would have the most value, as he is cost-controlled for an additional season.  So the times I propose trades with a big, I go with Sully if I think the other team needs less value, and Olynyk if they need more, because I think Sully is better for other teams than our own, and maybe the other way around for Zeller.

I think Ainge's moves were made in the context to protect us from Sully's historically bad commitment to being in shape and unprofessionalism.  Lee and Amir make him less necessary, ditto for Jerebko.   If he does not pan out and show up in shape, he may get a rude awakening.  Even a case could be made for Mickey being taken as insurance against Jared.

[Who]

If trading for a pick, I'd say a first round pick in the 15-25 range.

If trading for a veteran, I'd say a role player who is a high quality bench player to borderline starter. Only because a center is more valuable (well harder to fill) than most other positions. So a quality backup center should get you something a bit better at another position.

If trading for a young player, someone with a low ceiling (Shabazz Mohammed?). Or who has been a complete bust up until this point (like Anthony Bennett).

[Who]

I don't think Tyler Zeller will be viewed as a starter by anyone. 25+ teams already have better options as a starting center. So pool of available teams who will view Zeller as anything more than a quality bench player is very small.

I think if Sully or Olynyk are traded it is because teams are high on him and consider them a quality starting PF down the road. Myself, I think when Sully is in decent shape and committed on defense is a middle of the pack starting PF. Not convinced by Olynyk but others are much higher on him and I imagine some front offices will be as well. I think the chasm between people who rate and do not rate Sully and/or Olynyk makes it impossible for a trade where Ainge includes one of them to a team that does not rate them highly. The difference in value is too large.

So I think when trading Sully or Olynyk, those guys are being viewed as future starters. Not stars but solid starters (expectation wise anyway). With Zeller, I think the expectations are for a quality backup center. So I think Zeller's value considerably less in a trade (like the consolidating trade ideas talked about above) than Olynyk and Sully.

[slamtheking]

If trading for a pick, I'd say a first round pick in the 15-25 range.

If trading for a veteran, I'd say a role player who is a high quality bench player to borderline starter. Only because a center is more valuable (well harder to fill) than most other positions. So a quality backup center should get you something a bit better at another position.

If trading for a young player, someone with a low ceiling (Shabazz Mohammed?). Or who has been a complete bust up until this point (like Anthony Bennett).

with you on the first 2 paragraphs.  don't agree on the value in terms of young players.  I think Shabazz could turn out to be decent but he's not a center.  tough call on that.
as for Bennett, we're helping Minny by taking him off their hands.  better be a lot more coming back from them if they're getting Zeller.

[slamtheking]

I don't think Tyler Zeller will be viewed as a starter by anyone. 25+ teams already have better options as a starting center. So pool of available teams who will view Zeller as anything more than a quality bench player is very small.

I think if Sully or Olynyk are traded it is because teams are high on him and consider them a quality starting PF down the road. Myself, I think when Sully is in decent shape and committed on defense is a middle of the pack starting PF. Not convinced by Olynyk but others are much higher on him and I imagine some front offices will be as well. I think the chasm between people who rate and do not rate Sully and/or Olynyk makes it impossible for a trade where Ainge includes one of them to a team that does not rate them highly. The difference in value is too large.

So I think when trading Sully or Olynyk, those guys are being viewed as future starters. Not stars but solid starters (expectation wise anyway). With Zeller, I think the expectations are for a quality backup center. So I think Zeller's value considerably less in a trade (like the consolidating trade ideas talked about above) than Olynyk and Sully.

solid point

[PhoSita]

While I agree that Zeller is not a starter, he is a competent, young center who can give you 10 and 5 coming off the bench.  There's value in that.  Arguably, he was the most consistent, productive contributor to the team over the course of last season.

I agree that his trade value is probably not terribly high, but I would prefer to keep Zeller instead of moving him for the sake of Olynyk or Sullinger.  Zeller's ceiling may be lower, but he's a valuable, consistent, and durable player at a position of talent scarcity.  I am much more confident that he will continue to be a valuable NBA player for another 5-7 years than I am in those guys.

My preference is to find a long term solution at starting center and keep Zeller as a quality 20-25 minute per night backup.

We should trade Olynyk and / or Sullinger before the reality of what they are catches up with the expectations for what they might someday be, if they can figure out their significant issues.

[ahonui06]

Don't believe Zeller has good trade value at the moment because he plays sporadic minutes dependent on the opposing teams' frontcourt.

Against teams with traditional bigs such as Memphis he is basically benched all game because he doesn't have the physicality and size to compete.

He gets most of his minute against teams that throw out a smallball lineup.

[2short]

Devils advocate...picture zeller as a running pick and roll center backing up bogut?..
Not a bad fit huh?

[AngryAndIrritable]

We acquired Zeller for the square root of nada. He's an okay back up center but to me he is the equivalent of the penny in the 'take a penny' jar. If we get a slightly shinier penny, so much the better. If not, no great loss.

[Csfan1984]

Trade value is probably a  low first as he is a decent backup center. I'd consider extending him at 3 years 5.5 million per ($16.5 million total).

[Hemingway]

Let's look at Zeller's value to us. The big thing we don't know is what he expects to be paid/how money hungry he is. If he will give us a break to play here long term I think he will get a long term deal like AB and Crowder. Let's not forget centers take a while to fully develop.

Around the league his value is that of a good backup. Teams would sign him but not trade much for him.

Imo it's more likely we trade Sully than Zeller even though both will be RFAs.

[jambr380]

I'm going in the 'not great' category - probably simar to what Bass was over the past couple of seasons. While I think a number of teams would benefit by having Zeller on their roster, they are not going to give up all that much to acquire him. I would be happy to keep him, but the cost would have to be low. He seems like a nice, hardworking guy without lockerroom headaches, so that is an additional plus.

[greece66]

Zeller is a better fit in the C's than most other teams (unlike say Kelly who could fit almost anywhere).
This means his value for the C's is greater than for other teams. Don't trade him.