https://www.ted.com/talks/rajiv_maheswaran_the_math_behind_basketball_s_wildest_moves?language=enI found this TED talk (I know, a TED Talk
) very interesting. This man works for a company that is employed by lots of NBA teams. Using computer technology, the company has broken down movements on a court. The computers can recognize actions as simple as different cuts or passes and as complex as wide-pin screens and blitzes on pick-and-rolls.
More importantly, however, this technology can determine the likelihood that a shot goes in. However,
it doesn't use shot charts and simple percentages. This computer can break down a player's position relative to the basket, the angle at which they are facing the basket, the distance between the player and the two nearest defenders, and angle of the defenders, and so on. Using this data, the simulation can calculate the probability of a player getting a rebound, making a shot, etc.
However, what I found most interesting is that this simulation accounts for difficulty of shots taken in relation to shooting percentage. An example this presentation used was a player that shot 47%. That is a normally efficient percentage for a non-big. However, relative to the difficulty of shots taken throughout the season, the player was a below-average shooter, and an average NBA player (by shooting standards) would have shot 49%.
This system can essentially differentiate between good shooters who take bad/difficult shots and poor-average players who take very good shots. It can also calculate how often a player was in good position to get a rebound based on positioning and physical measurements.
What I find interesting is that
this man seems to hint about the Spurs on multiple occasions. He mentions clients that are: championship contenders, coaches who have been around for 30+ years who want to be on the cutting edge, etc. He even uses the Miami Game 6 dagger three as an example (saying that there was a 9% chance of the play unfolding based on positioning and shot percentages). Perhaps this is the technology that made Pop emphasize the corner three or the one that made the Spurs comfortable not paying Gary Neal, knowing he could be replaced by an average player who took the same high-quality looks.
Most importantly, what does this mean for the Celtics? With Brad Stevens and Danny Ainge as proponents of analytics, I am excited to see how this technology could influence the building and running of the team. The future is bright!
Topic: Inside the NBA's Newest Technology (Read 684 times)