a ranking of 76ers assets

[slamtheking]

In 2016, Philly gets:
Lakers pick (Top 3 protected)
Miami pick (Top 10 protected)
Oklahoma pick (Top 15 protected)
The right to swap their own pick with the Kings (if the Kings have a top 10 pick)
2nd rounder from Denver

In 2016, C's get:
Nets Pick
Dallas pick (Top 7 protected)
Minny pick (top 12 protected; becomes a 2nd rounder in 2016 and another in 2017 if the 1st isn't conveyed)
Celts own pick
Cleveland's 2nd
The more favorable of Dallas' and Memphis' 2nd
Philly's 2nd

Philly estimate for 2016:
Own 1st (won't swap with Kings) - 5
Lakers 1st - 6
Miami 1st - 17
OKC 1st - 19
Denver's 2nd - 36

Philly's 2016 draft: 5, 6, 17, 19 and 36

Boston estimate for 2016:
1st round:
Nets 1st - 10
Own 1st - 16
Dallas 1st - 18
Philly 2nd - 35
Minny 2nd - 38
Dallas/Memphis 2nd - 48
Cleveland 2nd - 57

Boston's 2016 draft = 10, 16, 18, 35, 38, 48, 57

from the article for those that can't access it:
1 - sixers/Kings 1st 2016
2 - Lakers 1st 2016 (top 3 protected)
3 - Okafor
4 - Noel
5a - Embiid
5B - Heat 1st 2016 (top 10 protected)
Honorable mention: OKC 1st 2016 (top 15 protected), Stauskas, Covington, future chances to swap firsts with Kings, Saric

right now, I'd say Noel is #3, Okafor #4 and that King's swap for next year may be #5.  the swap with the Kings would be a lot more valuable to a team that figures to be much better than the Kings.

here's what I consider to be much more realistic expectations

Philly estimate for 2016:
Own 1st (won't swap with Kings) - 5  (bumped by a team jumping them to top 3 -- I refuse to allow Philly to get that #1 pick ever just based on principle and I'm hoping someone with a better record jumps them)
Lakers 1st - 7 (pushed by someone jumping them)
Miami 1st - 20
OKC 1st - 25
Denver's 2nd - 35

Philly's 2016 draft: 5, 7, 20, 25, 35

Boston estimate for 2016:
1st round:
Nets 1st - 6  (pushed from 5 by someone jumping up)
Dallas 1st - 8 (finish 7th worst but get jumped in the lottery and pushed to
Own 1st - 12
Philly 2nd - 34
Dallas/Memphis 2nd - 38
Minny 2nd - 40
Cleveland 2nd - 57

Boston's 2016 draft = 6, 8, 12, 34, 38, 40, 57

Overall, I think Boston will hold the stronger hand in the draft than the Sixers.  The Sixers will suck.  LA, Nets and Dallas will all be bad, the question is how bad.  I also think the C's come close to making the playoffs but miss.  Minny comes close to conveying their 1st to us but just miss.

[kraidstar]

In 2016, Philly gets:
Lakers pick (Top 3 protected)
Miami pick (Top 11 protected)
Oklahoma pick (Top 15 protected)
The right to swap their own pick with the Kings (if the Kings have a top 10 pick)
2nd rounder from Denver

In 2016, C's get:
Nets Pick
Dallas pick (Top 7 protected)
Minny pick (top 12 protected; becomes a 2nd rounder in 2016 and another in 2017 if the 1st isn't conveyed)
Celts own pick
Cleveland's 2nd
The more favorable of Dallas' and Memphis' 2nd
Philly's 2nd

Philly estimate for 2016:
Own 1st (won't swap with Kings) - 5
Lakers 1st - 6
Miami 1st - 17
OKC 1st - 19
Denver's 2nd - 36

Philly's 2016 draft: 5, 6, 17, 19 and 36

Boston estimate for 2016:
1st round:
Nets 1st - 10
Own 1st - 16
Dallas 1st - 18
Philly 2nd - 35
Minny 2nd - 38
Dallas/Memphis 2nd - 48
Cleveland 2nd - 57

Boston's 2016 draft = 10, 16, 18, 35, 38, 48, 57


In addition to having Okafur, Noel and the possibility of Embiid in the future, the Sixers (based on my guess above) will have much better draft options than the C's in 2016. 

C's draft could be a lot different if the C's fall out of the playoffs, the Nets falter, the Mavs fall just enough, and the Wolves surge to #13.  How does 3, 8, 11, and 13 sound? 

Philly's draft could falter if the Lakers are a lot better than expected and if Philly somehow manages to start winning.


As of now in a total youth rebuild kind of way, I'd much rather be in the Sixers shoes.

I really don't understand the fascination of pumping up one's team's assets and downgrading our own and we see this all the time on this board. I have highlighted the really egregious example of it here.

In what world does a team with

Russel Westbrook
Waiters
Kevin Durant
Sergie Ibaka
Enes Kanter

and some servicable bench players in Augustine, Adams and Collison

Finish neck and neck with

Deron Williams
Parsons coming off injury
Wesley Matthews (coming off achilles)
Dirk (37 years old)
Zaza

 How do you post that as a serious prediction?

TP. dallas will be bad, very bad. their bench is brutal.

and brooklyn won only 38 games last year, and they lost teletovic, d-will, and plumlee in the offseason. their big aquisiiton was bargnani, who is a born loser.

jarrett jack is a chucker, and is a terrible point guard.

JJ is near the end.

lopez is a step away form a career-ending injury.

their bench is worse than dallas', all no-name players. they will be awful at both ends of the court. i'll be shocked if they win more than 30 games. what teams will they be better than?

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

A little surprised Saric ended behind Embiid or the MIA pick that is going to require a major injury to fall into the late lottery. I'm not high on Saric at all, but the general consensus is better. Thought the following was somewhat noteworthy for news content. Agree that it's best to hold Embiid and hope rather than take a mid-first. hit-or-miss pick. Embiid's issue is health rather than potential talent though some of the Librety Ballers have been excessive about a guy who had minimal playing time against people rather than chairs. Think the bit about Divac is silly. Kings may well win that deal at the end of the day.

If the Sixers hypothetically tried to move Embiid right now, what might they get in return? As a rough thought experiment, I asked around. One longtime league executive said he’s worth “a real protected first.” When I asked if the Sixers could get into the lottery for Embiid, the reply was quick: “No.” Another longtime front office man disagreed slightly and said he’d go “back end of the lottery, maybe” for Embiid. He called it a “dice roll” for teams that are starting over and want to gamble. Those are just two opinions, and Hinkie has done pretty well for himself when negotiating with other front offices (poor, overmatched Vlade Divac), but it’s evident that, at present, it would be hard to find a return approaching the third overall pick that the Sixers invested in Embiid. It’s hold him and hope, or move him and take a huge loss on the investment. The first option seems smartest and most likely.

For financial reasons, Saric most likely will stay in Europe two more seasons which drops his value.  The Sixers can't lose the Kings trade because they didn't give up anything important.  Even if the Kings do well, the Sixers still picked up Stauskas and a 1st rounder.

SAC is using that cap room to improve their defense dramatically (Bellinelli, Koufos, Rondo, Caron Butler, and A Moute) as well as the pick for WCS that they had already made.


The swaps are complicated, but very over-valued. Without a PG, PHI is going to stink for at least 2 years . SI has them as the worst and it’s tough to see anyone edging them out. Maybe they end up 3rd and SAC  who was 9th lucks out and gets 1st. Happens every day. PHI gets the 1st and SAC gets stuck with the 3rd. Long odds and not much downside for SAC. Anyway, no one is built as bad as PHI. In addition, if SAC improves just a bit, the odds are long against the swaps. If SAC improves a decent amount out of the bottom 10, the swaps are useless. So PHI does not win much if anything unless they get a lot better than expected and SAC gets worse.



Doesn’t look anything like a fleecing to me. PHI took on more risk for a better return and bet against the trend (SAC on paper is getting better).

So much wrong, and factually inaccurate with just about everything you wrote, but I'll try to keep it as brief as possible.

How on Earth do Rondo, Bennelli and a guy who isn't on their team improve their defense? The first two are not good defenders, the last isn't on the roster and that's not even touching on the fact Rajon Rondo is one of the worst offensive players PGs in the NBA.

2nd, Sac is the most dysfunctional organization on the NBA. They've been in the top 10 for years, their coach and best player openly don't like each other, they

What exactly is the risk Philly took? They expended cap space they weren't going to use anyway. That's it.

Your bias is seeping through pretty heavily here.

The best case scenario for the Kings is they make the playoffs as cannon fodder. The Worst case is that they lose the #1 pick.

The absolute worst case scenario for the Sixers is that they get a late lottery/mid teens 1st in 2019 and a free look at Stauskas. That's it, there's no downside.

[LarBrd33]

However you rank philly's assets, I think it's safe to say that even if embiid's career is over, philly has at least two assets more valuable than any asset Boston owns... Which is the only reason philly keeps coming up in discussions on a Celtic forum.  When you hear about Boston offering half the team including Marcus smart for Okafor and getting turned down... It's enough to make a Celtic fan a wee bit jelly of the 76ers. 

Rank Boston's assets.  I'd gladly trade the top two for either Okafor or Noel.

[celticsclay]

However you rank philly's assets, I think it's safe to say that even if embiid's career is over, philly has at least two assets more valuable than any asset Boston owns... Which is the only reason philly keeps coming up in discussions on a Celtic forum.  When you hear about Boston offering half the team including Marcus smart for Okafor and getting turned down... It's enough to make a Celtic fan a wee bit jelly of the 76ers. 

Rank Boston's assets.  I'd gladly trade the top two for either Okafor or Noel.

I don't really think it is jealousy.

I think that there are some Celtics fans that highly admire Philadelphia's model of rebuild philosophy along with a few actual Philly fans on this board. These posters have regularly inflated the "assets" of Philly and downplayed the Celtics own assets. If you want to see an example of this scroll no further up than a poster predicting Dallas and OKC will finish neck and neck.

On the flip side, perhaps reacting to the inflation and admiration, some Celtics fans get defensive and get overly negative towards the 76ers or overly pump up the Celtics assets. For example, posters saying they would never trade Smart for Noel.

In the end, both sides ridiculously exaggerate the value on their own side of the debate and argue with each other until the  threads  get really ugly (see famed Embiid thread you may recall).

Personally, I think there are other teams that have a much more interesting future to debate (especially post embiid news) like the Wolves with Towns, Wiggins, Rubio, Levine and some vets already in tow, but the Wolves pretty much never come up here cause we have this ongoing battle.

[oldtype]

Realistically, Philly's top three assets are probably

1) Philadelphia 2016 pick
2) Philadelphia 2017 pick
3) Philadelphia 2018 pick

The Sixers have more than just two assets that are better than any Celtic asset. Why? Because they will continue to tank, every single year, until multiple assets convert into something concrete. Every year they will have a top-3 pick, which by definition will probably be better than anything we have in terms of tradable assets.

The problem, of course, is that assets may or may not convert into on-court production; and for you to contend, you need multiple instances of that conversion to happen.  This process takes a lot of time and a lot of luck.

And that's the fundamental difference between Boston and Philly - how you decide to spend that time.  Are you going to spend that time remaining competitive while maintaining flexibility? Or are you going to spend it tanking as hard as possible so you can collect the assets with the largest chance of converting?

There's not a single doubt in my mind that the expected value of Philly's assets are higher than the expected value of ours. It will be like that every single year as long as both teams continue on their current trajectory.

The question, then, is this: are you willing to trade putting a product on the floor for your fans, building a winning culture for your players, and maintaining the respectability of your organization in exchange for a few % points in EV?

Maybe some people are. But even if Philly ends up with better assets than us year, after year, after year, I'd prefer to be in our situation. A few % better chance of getting a franchise star just isn't worth having to go through that particular process.

[celticsclay]

Realistically, Philly's top three assets are probably

1) Philadelphia 2016 pick
2) Philadelphia 2017 pick
3) Philadelphia 2018 pick

The Sixers have more than just two assets that are better than any Celtic asset. Why? Because they will continue to tank, every single year, until multiple assets convert into something concrete. Every year they will have a top-3 pick, which by definition will probably be better than anything we have in terms of tradable assets.

The problem, of course, is that assets may or may not convert into on-court production; and for you to contend, you need multiple instances of that conversion to happen.  This process takes a lot of time and a lot of luck.

And that's the fundamental difference between Boston and Philly - how you decide to spend that time.  Are you going to spend that time remaining competitive while maintaining flexibility? Or are you going to spend it tanking as hard as possible so you can collect the assets with the largest chance of converting?

There's not a single doubt in my mind that the expected value of Philly's assets are higher than the expected value of ours. It will be like that every single year as long as both teams continue on their current trajectory.

The question, then, is this: are you willing to trade putting a product on the floor for your fans, building a winning culture for your players, and maintaining the respectability of your organization in exchange for a few % points in EV?

Maybe some people are. But even if Philly ends up with better assets than us year, after year, after year, I'd prefer to be in our situation. A few % better chance of getting a franchise star just isn't worth having to go through that particular process.

If Philly's 2018 draft pick is a high draft pick it means that there are other assets have failed horribly (Noel, Okafor, picks this year etc.) . The 2017-2018 season will be Noels will be what Noel's 6th season under contract and second season under a contract extension? If they are that bad 6 years in he would have to be a huge bust or he would ask to be traded.

[oldtype]

Realistically, Philly's top three assets are probably

1) Philadelphia 2016 pick
2) Philadelphia 2017 pick
3) Philadelphia 2018 pick

The Sixers have more than just two assets that are better than any Celtic asset. Why? Because they will continue to tank, every single year, until multiple assets convert into something concrete. Every year they will have a top-3 pick, which by definition will probably be better than anything we have in terms of tradable assets.

The problem, of course, is that assets may or may not convert into on-court production; and for you to contend, you need multiple instances of that conversion to happen.  This process takes a lot of time and a lot of luck.

And that's the fundamental difference between Boston and Philly - how you decide to spend that time.  Are you going to spend that time remaining competitive while maintaining flexibility? Or are you going to spend it tanking as hard as possible so you can collect the assets with the largest chance of converting?

There's not a single doubt in my mind that the expected value of Philly's assets are higher than the expected value of ours. It will be like that every single year as long as both teams continue on their current trajectory.

The question, then, is this: are you willing to trade putting a product on the floor for your fans, building a winning culture for your players, and maintaining the respectability of your organization in exchange for a few % points in EV?

Maybe some people are. But even if Philly ends up with better assets than us year, after year, after year, I'd prefer to be in our situation. A few % better chance of getting a franchise star just isn't worth having to go through that particular process.

If Philly's 2018 draft pick is a high draft pick it means that there are other assets have failed horribly (Noel, Okafor, picks this year etc.) . The 2017-2018 season will be Noels will be what Noel's 6th season under contract and second season under a contract extension? If they are that bad 6 years in he would have to be a huge bust or he would ask to be traded.

That's another big issues with Philly's model. Rookie contracts run out so after a certain point your initial pool of assets starts slipping through your fingers. Or maybe Hinkie just gets fired.

[D.o.s.]

Or they all hit at the same time and they can't afford to keep the band together (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City, 2012)

[Big333223]

Or they all hit at the same time and they can't afford to keep the band together (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City, 2012)

If you told me that my favorite team's biggest problem was going to be that they had too many good players who needed big contracts, I would absolutely take that.

[celticsclay]

Or they all hit at the same time and they can't afford to keep the band together (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City, 2012)

If you told me that my favorite team's biggest problem was going to be that they had too many good players who needed big contracts, I would absolutely take that.

How does the salary cap going up each year impact this? It seems like if it is increasing year for a while teams can have 4 max salary guys on their team?

[CM0]

Saric is worth a lot more than Embiid right now.

[D.o.s.]

@ Clay: Ok so, full disclosure, I am drinking (happy Friday to all) and I could be totally missing something obvious, but the salary cap going up would give them some respite, the problem is the timing window -- so if you get into a position like OKC did, where Harden and Ibaka were both drafted the same year and are up for max deals at the same time after you've already paid two out to players drafted slightly before, you're still screwed.

Now, in fairness, I think OKC balked because their ownership are a bunch of greedy jerks who hate paying taxes on anything and also didn't see Harden exploding the way he did because they're mostly shortsighted morons, and I don't see the Celtics making that mistake.

[CM0]

However you rank philly's assets, I think it's safe to say that even if embiid's career is over, philly has at least two assets more valuable than any asset Boston owns... Which is the only reason philly keeps coming up in discussions on a Celtic forum.  When you hear about Boston offering half the team including Marcus smart for Okafor and getting turned down... It's enough to make a Celtic fan a wee bit jelly of the 76ers. 

Rank Boston's assets.  I'd gladly trade the top two for either Okafor or Noel.

Personally, I think there are other teams that have a much more interesting future to debate (especially post embiid news) like the Wolves with Towns, Wiggins, Rubio, Levine and some vets already in tow, but the Wolves pretty much never come up here cause we have this ongoing battle.

The Magic are a REALLY interesting bunch. I'm a big fan of Hezonja and Aaron Gordon will be a legit star if the shooting he showed in the SL is for real. Plus, they have Olapido, Payton and Harris.

[Big333223]

Or they all hit at the same time and they can't afford to keep the band together (see: Thunder, Oklahoma City, 2012)

If you told me that my favorite team's biggest problem was going to be that they had too many good players who needed big contracts, I would absolutely take that.

How does the salary cap going up each year impact this? It seems like if it is increasing year for a while teams can have 4 max salary guys on their team?

My understandings is, the max is a percentage of the cap, so if the cap rises, so will max contracts. And as max contracts go up, teams will have to pay more for role players as well. For the next couple of years, as the cap goes up but older contracts are still in place, teams will all have lots of cap space but the contracts will quickly catch up and the situation will even out to basically where we were 2 years ago (in terms of percentage of the cap each contract takes up, even if the raw numbers are higher).

If that makes sense.