What I would have done this offseason

[PhoSita]

What-I-Would-Have-Done-If-I-Had-Completely-Gotten-My-Way-In-A-Totally-Unrealistic-World-Where-My-Mommy-Never-Says-No-To-Me-Did-I-Mentiion-I-Am-God's-Gift-To-Basketball-Roster-Management?

Why exactly are any of us posting here if not to discuss these types of things?

Should the forum shut down when the games aren't on?

[PhoSita]

Personally, in a perfect world I would have passed on Lee, exiled Evan Turner, and put all the marbles towards a 'development year', rather than building a squad that seems primed for a first round out. Not tanking, exactly, rather avoiding adding wheel-spinning veterans for the sake of adding them.

You've boiled down my preference for the off-season to a couple of sentences.

Well done sir.

[D.o.s.]

Sit Wallace. Love Crash but he's got no future on this team that isn't an assistant coaching gig.

Would take whatever I could for Turner because the way he plays basketball makes me physical ill. I'll take a top 55 protected second rounder for him. I'll even send one out, plus cash. Totally just a personal bias there.

The goal, at least heading into 2015 is to spend a season gauging what Smart, Sully, Olynyk et. al can do without the benefit of playing with Lee, Johnson, etc. Either our rookies are worth playing or they aren't, but I don't think becoming marginally better is worth losing out on the value  that our own first rounder can bring us, either in trade or in practice. If we lose a lot of games but realize that Smart is worth building around that's more valuable than making it to 40 wins on the back of David Lee only to watch him degrade next season.

Gotcha.  Obviously you're a fan of the tanking I assume.

Regardless, what about the draft ?  Don't you want to go in hoping that guys like Lee, Johnson, and your draft picks take the team to the next level ?  You never know what those picks can do.  Some picks can immediately turn it around.  Who knows.

No no no, I don't like tanking, and by that I mean I don't like the idea of putting players on the floor with the expectation that they are going to lose games. I start out every season hoping that the Celtics are going to go 82-0.

There is a difference, though, between adding players of middling talent to reach some kind of arbitrary line of mediocrity that is "acceptable" and bringing in players who have a legitimate shot at turning the franchise into an actual championship contender. Whether through the draft, free agency, or trade I have seen a lot of the former and none of the later from the C's this offseason -- and that being the case, I would rather just focus on the young guys and hope that they have some reservoir of potential I'm missing.

[PhoSita]

The goal, at least heading into 2015 is to spend a season gauging what Smart, Sully, Olynyk et. al can do without the benefit of playing with Lee, Johnson, etc.

Either our rookies are worth playing or they aren't, but I don't think becoming marginally better is worth losing out on the value  that our own first rounder can bring us, either in trade or in practice.

If we lose a lot of games but realize that Smart is worth building around that's more valuable than making it to 40 wins on the back of David Lee only to watch him degrade next season.

[Bdiddy]

As a displaced Bostonian now living in the Dallas area, I do frown on Ainge's decision to bypass Justin Anderson at 16 BUT I do believe that Rozier will be a solid rotation player down the line and is a sizeable upgrade over Pressey. Anderson could well turn into a starting caliber 3 which was a great need for us. Plus, he had the D and 3 ball that Stevens covets. For the remainder, I believe Ainge did as well as possible based on available options. Hunter and Mickey were solid values. Pick 45 was a throw away so I think it boiled down to who would accept an overseas assignment and Thornton obviously did not have a problem with it. Ainge not selecting Upshaw or Johnson is no surprise. Their games just do not fit with Stevens system.  David Lee is a much better fit in our system and his $15 million salary is a better trade chip should Cousins come available at the trade deadline. Likewise, Johnson's ability and $12 million salary make him BOTH a valuable player and asset for trades down the line.

[Rosco917]

I would have signed Lebron and Aldridge and Jordan.

LOL...At the very least ^^^^

[jpotter33]

Obviously a lot of these things were dependent upon each other, but if Ainge had any type of inkling on draft night that he wasn't going to get much in free agency, I would've rather went the young rebuild than where we're currently at. I would've offered up Bradley, KO, 16, and 28 to Charlotte for Henderson, and 9. (KO because they could've got the exact thing as Kaminsky along with another asset at 16 and 28.) At 9 I would've picked Winslow, 33 Mickey, and Upshaw with the last pick. Then I would've sold off IT to the highest bidder and resigned JJ and Crowder, leaving us with a roster of:
PG: Smart, FA
SG: Young, FA
SF: Winslow, Crowder
PF: Sully, JJ, Mickey
C: Zeller, Upshaw

This would give us a really good look at what a core of Smart, Young, Winslow, and Sully could do, and it would give us just one more good pick next year in a draft deep with C's and SF's. We would probably be a top three pick for sure, with good chances at two other lottery picks in Dallas and Brooklyn, with Brooklyn also having a really good chance of being a top five or six pick. We could then potentially have this lineup starting in 2016:
PG: Smart, FA
SG: Winslow, Young
SF: Simmons, Crowder
PF: Sully, Mickey
C: Maker, Upshaw

10 year title window here we come! 

[ThePoeticWolf]

Criticizing a path that somebody else takes is easy.  Taking action yourself, actually deciding on a plan forward, is harder, and opens you up to criticism from others.

I have expressed disappointment with how the off-season has gone, and the path the team appears to be taking.  That's easy for me to do.

Armchair GMing isn't exactly hard, of course.  But I figure, I ought to be able to say what I would have done instead, if I'm going to criticize.  I can only suggest what I would have done based on the alternatives that seem to have been available.  As a mere fan, I don't know all of the possibilities going on behind the scenes.  Therefore, I won't suggest anything outrageous -- no draft day trades, no major free agent signings, no July 1st blockbuster three team deals.

Just a glimpse at the sort of plan I'd have preferred to see play out over the last couple of months.



Draft day:

Failing a trade up into the top 10 to take an exciting prospect, I'd have drafted players with a realistic shot at earning playing time due to the needs of the team, while still focusing on getting some of the best talent available.

#16 - Sam Dekker
#28 - Montrezl Harrell
#45 - Dakari Johnson

All three players address a team need and have the talent to outperform their draft position.  Check.


Free Agency:

In free agency, I would target younger bench players with experience in a winning culture who might break out given a larger role.

I can't say for certain who would or would not have signed in Boston, but I think the following names would have been in play if we could offer them a chance to earn a starting spot. 

Kosta Koufos - 4 years / $33 million
Cory Joseph - 4 years / $30 million

Koufos could earn a starting spot in Boston instead of playing behind DMC in the chaos of Sacramento.  He's an upgrade defensively and on the boards.

Joseph has a similar skillset to Ainge draftee Terry Rozier, but he's proven at the NBA level with San Antonio.  Earning playing time for Pop is a big deal.  Like Rozier, CJ could be a better fit next to Smart than Avery Bradley.  But what gives?  The Celts have lots of guards.

Well, that would be the case until I made the following move:

Trade: Bradley + Turner to Dallas for Justin Anderson + 2020 1st


I'd explore other options, too, like seeing if Sacramento would trade McLemore for Bradley in their win-now fervor, or if Utah would be interested in sending Alec Burks, Elijah Millsap and a future pick our way for Bradley and ET. 

In the end, I think taking advantage of Dallas's desperation to find decent players would be the easiest solution.  Yes, they committed big time to Wes Matthews, but who knows when he'll be fully healthy?  Bradley gives them much needed depth and insurance in case Wes takes longer to recover.  ET gives them some bench scoring and ball-handling on the wing, another need.

Dallas has always been willing to part with draft picks, so squeezing them for Justin Anderson, who has some 3-and-D potential similar to former Mav Jae Crowder, along with a 1st rounder that vests well in the future, seems like a plausible scenario.



The resulting team

Joseph / IT / Pressey
Smart / Young / Anderson
Crowder / Dekker / GW
Sullinger / Olynyk / Harrell
Koufos / Zeller / Dakari


Average age of the starting lineup: 23.4


The team ends up committing more long term money to Koufos and Joseph, and the only big contract to use in a trade is GW.  Still, I don't think preserving cap space is terribly important given the cap environment over the next couple of years (i.e. everybody has way too much), and a 10 million dollar expiring is still a substantial chip.

For my money, seeing if guys like Joseph, Sullinger, Crowder, or Koufos can be consistently productive as starters is more likely to yield valuable trade chips than acquiring established commodities like David Lee and Amir Johnson, anyway.


I wouldn't be over the moon about that team, but the focus remains on building up younger assets while planning to try to find a major talent in the draft first and worrying about making a big splash later in the process.

What do you think?  What would you have done differently?

Overall I like what you've done but I would make a couple little changes.

First the draft.

#16 - Sam Dekker
#28 - Montrezl Harrell
#33 - Jordan Mickey
#45 - Robert Upshaw

I'm not sold on Dekker completely but I think he'd be solid behind Turner and Crowder, and when Turner is done next year behind Crowder or even could take spot depending.  With Harrell I was his biggest fan all year and was dying for us to take him at 28, when watching the Cardinals you saw more of him then Rozier.  Plus he'd fill a need for when Sully, Bass are gone.  I'd still draft Jordan Mickey because I believe he could be a Ben Wallace type player, undersized but with some muscle to him could play an undersized center an power forward.  I take a risk at Robert Upshaw, just on what he COULD be, Lakers could have a steal there with him.

Free Agents
Bismack Biyombo - 2 years 5.7 million what he got from the Raptors
Jae Crowder - 5 years, 35 million, love this signing for us.
Gerald Green - 1 year, 1.3 million as he signed with the Heat, could bump him to a 2 year.

Trades
Denver - Kenneth Faried
Boston - Gerald Wallace, Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, Boston 2016 1st

Pacers - Roy Hibbert
Celtics - 2017 2nd rounder, same price as the Lakers gave up.

As you can see I don't do the David Lee trade because the money goes to Denver for the Faried Deal.

Team After - Can have 15 players and dress 13.  So Young could stay in d-league as well as someone else.

Center - Roy Hibbert, Bismack Biyombo, Robert Upshaw
Power Forward - Kenneth Faried, Jared Sullinger, Montrezl Harrell (Can play the 3 if needed to), Jordan Mickey
Small Forward - Jae Crowder(Can play the 2), Sam Dekker, Even Turner (Can play 1-3)
Shooting Guard - Avery Bradley, James Young, Gerald Green
Point Guard - Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas

Hibbert is a 1 year gamble no different then how the Lakers are looking to do.  The Faried trade is to give us a long term power forward.  He's a hustle guy and also a run style power forward who would benefit with Smart, Thomas, Bradley and Crowder.

[Tr1boy]

fair question.  of course, not knowing all of what Danny tried to do but was rejected behind closed doors is the key missing info here.

At 16 I'd have taken Portis.
At 28, I think I'd still take Hunter
at 33, probably take Mickey (just don't tell Triboy that )
at 45, probably take a shot at Dakari.  no way do I take Thornton.

free agency, I like Amir Johnson and probably sign him. Monroe would have been preferable but he seemed to want to go somewhere with better prospects
Trades: I don't mind the Lee deal but with Portis and Mickey, kind of overkill.   Would look to Utah to try to get Favors for a combo of AB, Turner and Sully/KO/Young.  Really like Favors.

yeah don't tell Triboy16

[Celtics4ever]

Failing a trade up into the top 10 to take an exciting prospect, I'd have drafted players with a realistic shot at earning playing time due to the needs of the team, while still focusing on getting some of the best talent available.

#16 - Sam Dekker
#28 - Montrezl Harrell
#45 - Dakari Johnson

I am really glad we did not Dekker with his 25 inch standing vertical.  He got hot in the NCAAs though, but not the final game.  The rest of his career, was meh.

[MBunge]

Criticizing a path that somebody else takes is easy.  Taking action yourself, actually deciding on a plan forward, is harder, and opens you up to criticism from others.

I have expressed disappointment with how the off-season has gone, and the path the team appears to be taking.  That's easy for me to do.

Armchair GMing isn't exactly hard, of course.  But I figure, I ought to be able to say what I would have done instead, if I'm going to criticize.  I can only suggest what I would have done based on the alternatives that seem to have been available.  As a mere fan, I don't know all of the possibilities going on behind the scenes.  Therefore, I won't suggest anything outrageous -- no draft day trades, no major free agent signings, no July 1st blockbuster three team deals.

Just a glimpse at the sort of plan I'd have preferred to see play out over the last couple of months.



Draft day:

Failing a trade up into the top 10 to take an exciting prospect, I'd have drafted players with a realistic shot at earning playing time due to the needs of the team, while still focusing on getting some of the best talent available.

#16 - Sam Dekker
#28 - Montrezl Harrell
#45 - Dakari Johnson

All three players address a team need and have the talent to outperform their draft position.  Check.


Free Agency:

In free agency, I would target younger bench players with experience in a winning culture who might break out given a larger role.

I can't say for certain who would or would not have signed in Boston, but I think the following names would have been in play if we could offer them a chance to earn a starting spot. 

Kosta Koufos - 4 years / $33 million
Cory Joseph - 4 years / $30 million

Koufos could earn a starting spot in Boston instead of playing behind DMC in the chaos of Sacramento.  He's an upgrade defensively and on the boards.

Joseph has a similar skillset to Ainge draftee Terry Rozier, but he's proven at the NBA level with San Antonio.  Earning playing time for Pop is a big deal.  Like Rozier, CJ could be a better fit next to Smart than Avery Bradley.  But what gives?  The Celts have lots of guards.

Well, that would be the case until I made the following move:

Trade: Bradley + Turner to Dallas for Justin Anderson + 2020 1st


I'd explore other options, too, like seeing if Sacramento would trade McLemore for Bradley in their win-now fervor, or if Utah would be interested in sending Alec Burks, Elijah Millsap and a future pick our way for Bradley and ET. 

In the end, I think taking advantage of Dallas's desperation to find decent players would be the easiest solution.  Yes, they committed big time to Wes Matthews, but who knows when he'll be fully healthy?  Bradley gives them much needed depth and insurance in case Wes takes longer to recover.  ET gives them some bench scoring and ball-handling on the wing, another need.

Dallas has always been willing to part with draft picks, so squeezing them for Justin Anderson, who has some 3-and-D potential similar to former Mav Jae Crowder, along with a 1st rounder that vests well in the future, seems like a plausible scenario.



The resulting team

Joseph / IT / Pressey
Smart / Young / Anderson
Crowder / Dekker / GW
Sullinger / Olynyk / Harrell
Koufos / Zeller / Dakari


Average age of the starting lineup: 23.4


The team ends up committing more long term money to Koufos and Joseph, and the only big contract to use in a trade is GW.  Still, I don't think preserving cap space is terribly important given the cap environment over the next couple of years (i.e. everybody has way too much), and a 10 million dollar expiring is still a substantial chip.

For my money, seeing if guys like Joseph, Sullinger, Crowder, or Koufos can be consistently productive as starters is more likely to yield valuable trade chips than acquiring established commodities like David Lee and Amir Johnson, anyway.


I wouldn't be over the moon about that team, but the focus remains on building up younger assets while planning to try to find a major talent in the draft first and worrying about making a big splash later in the process.

What do you think?  What would you have done differently?

Not a fan of Dekker but would have been fine with Harrell and Johnson.

Would not sign mid-level players to mid-level four year deals.  Signing Koufos and Joseph wouldn't be terrible but where does it get you?

Don't see the point of trading Bradley and Turner for Anderson and a 2020 first or Burks and Milsap and a pick.  Seems like a trade that serves no other purpose than to make a trade.

Your plan isn't stupid or unreasonable.  I just don't see how it's really any better than what Ainge did.

If I was going to do something different it would've been going all in after Monroe and Harris, including offering Orlando players and picks for a sign-n-trade.

Mike

[Jon]

Draft picks aside, I think the radically underestimated thing that Ainge DIDN'T do this offseason is burn any of his assets, yet he still managed to give this tram a shot at winning 45+ games.

Sure. We could have signed Greg Monroe and Tobias Harris, but what would that have done? It would have blown out cap space for the foreseeable future and still not made us a contender.

Instead, he kept all of our assets and our financial flexibility and gave the team a shot to still be pretty good.

I'd also ask the question how much better Greg Monroe is than David Lee. Both are known as scorers and rebounders, neither are defenders. But with Lee, Danny gets a one year rental rather than committing a mega long term deal.

So overall, I like what he did. Fireworks would have been nice, but all the other scenarios people suggested would have just been overpriced sparklers that would have stripped us of assets or hindered us in the future.

[PhoSita]

Your plan isn't stupid or unreasonable.  I just don't see how it's really any better than what Ainge did.

If I was going to do something different it would've been going all in after Monroe and Harris, including offering Orlando players and picks for a sign-n-trade.

Mike

Getting Monroe and / or Harris would have been my preference, too, but with this post I didn't want to get into larger moves like that because we just don't know if they were actually on the table for Ainge or not.

[max215]

Interesting ideas. I'm not personally a big fan of a lot of your moves, but I like the idea of Bradley to an inexplicably win-now SAC for McLemore. Johnson at #45 would have been much more palatable than Thornton. Drafting Anderson at #16 or trading up from #28 would've been a nice move.

[crimson_stallion]

I'd also ask the question how much better Greg Monroe is than David Lee. Both are known as scorers and rebounders, neither are defenders. But with Lee, Danny gets a one year rental rather than committing a mega long term deal.

I'm as big believe in Danny as anyone and like the things he did, but believe me - if Monroe was interested in coming here...we'd have him.

Oh and Monroe is a major upgrade over Lee, even before you take upside into account.