I think 47 is waaay too optimistic. would need a lot of teams considered better than us to perform a lot worse than expected.
I think 35-38 is more likely.
They're back with virtually the same team that won 40 last year, plus have added Amir Johnson and David Lee. They better win at least the same amount this season as last. There's giving the team TOO much credit, but there's also not giving them enough. And I don't think you're giving them enough.
ok, fair enough. I still haven't seen anything posted in this thread that suggests which teams in the East are going to take a real tumble for the C's to improve that much.
sure, the C's are better with Lee and Amir but by how much? they're taking over for Bass and taking time away from Zeller, KO and Sully. they should be better than the players they're taking minutes from (or replacing) but it's not like we added all-stars. Also, even though we added what seems to be 3 solid rookies, none of them will see the court since they're stuck behind better players that'll be taking all the minutes at the guard and PF positions. no real improvement there except to the team's depth.
here's the crux of my viewpoint: there were 6 teams that finished better than the C's last year in the East. Each of those teams still figures to finish better than the C's. None of them took a real step backwards where the C's would figure to pass them in the standings. no real reason to expect the C's to fair much better against those teams than last year either.
Now, consider Miami is getting back Bosh, Wade and getting full seasons from Whiteside and Dragic (not to mention adding Winslow). They finished just behind us. no reason to think they don't pass us comfortably. they also figure to match up well against us.
Detroit, Charlotte and Indy all made moves to improve and added rookies that do figure to see the court. One could argue that they lost players of importance but each of the primary players they moved were causing them headaches either in the lockerroom or on the court (or both). Addition by subtraction may have a real effect for them. In any case, they all have at least one player that dominates whoever we would put against them. The games against these teams will be difficult to win and I think we'll be fighting them for the 8th spot.
NY is getting Melo back and added a couple of solid FAs. they're better than last year and won't be a cakewalk to beat them. they won't challenge for the playoffs (I don't think so anyway).
Brooklyn I see as in decline. real decline. doesn't mean that if JJ, Lopez and Young are functioning together well they couldn't steal a game from us. Only team in the East I really see dropping in the standings.
Philly's just a dumpster fire and still will be next year but they played us tougher than just about any other team. would expect to sweep them but then again I couldn't figure out how they played us so tough last year.
We play the West teams only a couple of games and while a few dropped in talent like Portland and Dallas, those teams don't play us enough to amount to a lot of wins (that's assuming we could do anything to contain Lillard and Dirk respectively)
so, rather than get into all the projection statistics being kicked around here, gut feeling, who is it you think the C's are going to be beating up on to make that kind of a jump in the standings? Anyone hanging their hat on how the C's finished last season as a projection for next year is chasing fool's gold.
I'd love to be wrong but I have yet to see anyone make a convincing argument that the C's will have a better record and/or make the playoffs based on an evaluation of the other teams in the East and not just throwing out statistics from last year with expectations that only the C's improved in the offseason. I enjoyed the playoff run and would like to see another run this year but I just don't see any reasonable expectation that this team gets back there this upcoming year without some major misfortunes hitting other teams.
So what you failed to mention is our young players getting better. There is an average growth quotient for young players to improve up to the age of 28 in the NBA. So while we can't project improvement in every young player on the C's we can project that as a group 14 of the C's players will improve on the whole. That is driving force behind projections having the Celtics higher than fans would think. That and a full season of Thomas, Jerebko and Crowder who were great in their time with the C's.
As to who I think the C's will pass in the standings, here is are my guesses
1. Toronto: if their offseason moves are any indication they are trying to go small. The problem is, their coach has always played slow and defensive strategies. I don't see DeMarre being as good a fit for that team as Amir was. Losing Lou Williams will hurt their bench production.
2. Washington: They played poorly to end the season but turned it up in the playoff by going small with Pierce at the 4. Pierce is no longer there and the guy replacing him is out 3-4 months with back surgery so I expect them to go back to their big lineups. If they consistently play big I don't think Gortat and Nene will last the entire season. I also don't trust Beal to be healthy and I think Porter looked better than he actually was in the playoffs due to them playing a broken down Toronto team
3. Chicago: Their win total was often inflated with Thibs due to the fact that he would play their best players minutes that were unsustainable long term. This is part of the reason they have a new coach, and with that reduced minutes from their starters could cost them wins. Will Hoidberg be able to flawlessly institute his system to players that have long won under a different system? I don't think so which could cost them more wins. I don't trust Rose, Gasol, Noah and Gibson to stay healthy. I don't trust the small ball 4's to defend. I expect their defensive rating to plummet.
4. Atlanta: Atlanta was about as healthy as possible during the regular season last year. With all of their staters playing at least 70 games (a lot of the missed games were due to rest not injury). They are going to be replacing Carroll with Bazemore or Hardaway Jr. which should be a downgrade and after that their depth isn't great. Teams that have a huge win spike over previous years tend to come back down to earth the next year, the same can be said of teams that win more than their pythagorean win prediction. We might not pass Atlanta but they should be considerably worse next year.
Teams that people assume are going to pass us but I'm not sure
Miami: Wait do people expect Wade to play an entire season? Do people expect Bosh to be 100% after coming back from heart surgery? Do people expect Whiteside to avoid injury and suspension for the entire year? Will Deng stay healthy? Is a bench of Gerald Green, Amare, Chalmers and Birdman going to be able to pick up the slack when the injuries come knocking again?
Indiana: Paul George is back but he might not be 100%. That they are trying to move him to pf when he comes back could cause a dip in production or another injury. Are Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill a good enough frontline for this standing jump everyone is expecting? Will Myles Turner be ready?
Detroit: Still too young without enough shooting. I don't trust Stanley Johnson to be the good 3 point shooter they need to space the floor. They have a bright future but I'd be surprised to see them ready to go this year.
Charlotte: They will be better than last year but I don't trust Jefferson to stay healthy and we aren't sure if last year was a down year for Batum or a result of a lot of miles on his tires. They did add a couple bigs who could shoot but those bigs are trash on defense.
certainly your opinion. I don't really agree on the team assessments but to each their own. I just don't see us passing Toronto, Chicago, Washington or Atlanta unless they have a significant injury event.
As for Miami, yes, for now I'll go with Bosh being 90-100% ready to play and Wade to be ready to play. that team has better players than us and I expect them to do better than us.
The others, as I mentioned, it'll be a tight race with us for that 8th seed.
as far as the youth improvement, here's my take on it. yes, we do have a number of younger players and yes, I am expecting them to improve. here's what I question on it:
1. how much improvement can they make? AB is pretty much what he is. KO might improve a little in terms of being more aggressive. Sully might improve if he's better conditioned. Zeller, maybe a bit. Young - if only. Smart, sure, best chance at the most improvement but that's if he can put the ball in the hoop more. thing is, IT is still on the roster and now it's full time. won't be playing him with AB and Smart at the same time so any improvements AB and Smart make will be somewhat limited.
2. Other teams also have young players and they figure to improve as well. Some of those teams have players who are considered better prospects than the ones we have and are expected to improve as much as or more than the young players we have. Don't forget that some of those other teams also added draft picks this year and their players are considered better prospects than ours (Indy adding Turner and Detroit adding Johnson as prime examples) and those prospects play positions where they figure to get some time and contribute as opposed to our 3 rookies who are currently stuck behind the logjams of players at their positions.
We'll see how the season plays out. I can't imagine that we'll finish the season with the roster we currently have so who knows. I'd like nothing better than to make the playoffs and finish better than I'm anticipating. It's not like I'm rooting for losses or missing the playoffs for a lottery pick. I'd much prefer to watch the team win and win a lot. much more enjoyable.
Topic: Celts projected for 47 Wins by SI (Read 19161 times)