Celts projected for 47 Wins by SI

[Future Celtics Owner]

I honestly can say that I will be praying, rooting, cheering, and dreaming for us to get under 20 wins.

[frosty33]

best part about this article, based off the stats, is that we're projected the potential next year's 5th (Nets), 13th (Mavs) and 19th picks (Celtics). FIREWORKS!!!!

[PhoSita]

Ill let the Celtics fans in name only try to sell you on why we're doomed.

You stink up the rest of the post by depositing rotting trash like this here.




As for the article, I seriously question the methodology when they have the Celts winning just a few games fewer than the Cavaliers.

[Ilikesports17]

I honestly can say that I will be praying, rooting, cheering, and dreaming for us to get under 20 wins.

thinl of the ramifications there. If we win only 19 games that basically means Smart stepped backwards, KO and Sully came back worse, AB regressed, Crowders deal proved to be an overpay, and worst of all, Brad Stevens loses his credibility as a rising young coach. Now we are the lakers of this year. A ton of cap space, a huge negative stigma, 1 quasi-promising player, and a high draft pick. the only difference. We dont have the allure of LA.

[D.o.s.]

Last time the West had someone with a .500 or worse record in the 8th spot, was '99.

The West is finally crumbling! (As long as we ignore the fact that 6th place in the West is good enough for 1st place in the East).

47 seems reasonable assuming everything breaks right, insofar as I'd say +/- 4 games off .500  is basically what we can expect from this squad as constructed?

[frosty33]

I honestly can say that I will be praying, rooting, cheering, and dreaming for us to get under 20 wins.

thinl of the ramifications there. If we win only 19 games that basically means Smart stepped backwards, KO and Sully came back worse, AB regressed, Crowders deal proved to be an overpay, and worst of all, Brad Stevens loses his credibility as a rising young coach. Now we are the lakers of this year. A ton of cap space, a huge negative stigma, 1 quasi-promising player, and a high draft pick. the only difference. We have the allure of LA.

I think its even worse than the Lakers situation though. The Lakers at least have the credibility to fix it the year after through free agency compared to us who can't go through it that way. Id rather go through our rebuild then turn into the Sixers. We can't forget about the Nets picks (we have to root for them to suck, not us!!!!

[D.o.s.]

19 wins could also mean that that one or more players on the Celtics suffer season-ending injuries, and that we wind up shutting down our contributors for a majority of the season.

Not quite as dismal, but the 2011-'12 Warriors (featuring David Lee as their minutes leader, natch) wound up going 23-43 -- which you can roughly equate to 28 wins in an 82 game season -- after/during which/because they shut Curry down + traded Ellis for a non-functioning Bogut to protect their draft pick. They then went 47, 51, and 67 games, as well as winning a championship, as you might have noticed.

Of course they already had one player with franchise potential on the roster at that point, but he was a dude with bad ankles who was a distinct possibility of an overpay.

[dreamgreen]

I honestly can say that I will be praying, rooting, cheering, and dreaming for us to get under 20 wins.

I have no idea about next years draft but I assume there is someone you think will be the next superstar?

I think as Celtic fans we have all had to go through the pain of  hoping the team loses. But as a fan it's the last way to enjoy a game, I want my teams to win every game and I think this team will be fun to watch and very competitive and make us proud.

Maybe spend your time praying that Lee some other odds and ends with picks turn into Love?

[Ilikesports17]

19 wins could also mean that that one or more players on the Celtics suffer season-ending injuries, and that we wind up shutting down our contributors for a majority of the season.

Not quite as dismal, but the 2011-'12 Warriors (featuring David Lee as their minutes leader, natch) wound up going 23-43 -- which you can roughly equate to 28 wins in an 82 game season -- after/during which/because they shut Curry down + traded Ellis for a non-functioning Bogut to protect their draft pick. They then went 47, 51, and 67 games, as well as winning a championship, as you might have noticed.

Of course they already had one player with franchise potential on the roster at that point, but he was a dude with bad ankles who was a distinct possibility of an overpay.

I mean if we had a star and a borderline star and both suffred season ending injuries and we got a top 10 pick then thats fine, but for a team whose strengths are coaching and depth it would require a lot more than an injury or 2 to get to 19 wins. I mean maybe Smart makes a massive step forward and Cousins gets a season ending injury then we trade all of our depth for a shelved Cousins in conjunction with Smart going down. Then Id be OK with 19 wins.

Also the difference between 19 wins and 28 wins is substantial. The Lakers won 21 games last year.

[Evantime34]

I thought the projection for the Celtics at 47 wins was reasonable. That was with Johnson actually being viewed as a downgrade from Bass. The full season of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder should positively effect our win total as well as development from Marcus Smart.

 I believe Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago are too high. While Cleveland, Miami, Indiana and Utah are too low.

[hodgy03038]

I thought the projection for the Celtics at 47 wins was reasonable. That was with Johnson actually being viewed as a downgrade from Bass. The full season of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder should positively effect our win total as well as development from Marcus Smart.

 I believe Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago are too high. While Cleveland, Miami, Indiana and Utah are too low.

Johnson is not a downgrade from Bass. As much as I like Bass it's clearly an upgrade.

[JR4]

I thought the projection for the Celtics at 47 wins was reasonable. That was with Johnson actually being viewed as a downgrade from Bass. The full season of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder should positively effect our win total as well as development from Marcus Smart.

 I believe Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago are too high. While Cleveland, Miami, Indiana and Utah are too low.

Good points, I agree. I'm hoping Cs win the division.  Toronto is the major threat against doing it.

[I told you so]

I honestly can say that I will be praying, rooting, cheering, and dreaming for us to get under 20 wins.

If that's what you're praying for, I'm sure there's a seat for you on the libertyballers' bus.  I would be shocked if Stevens doesn't get 40+ wins out of this roster.  Not sold on a prediction based on projected win shares, but 47 wins seems attainable, regardless.

[Evantime34]

I thought the projection for the Celtics at 47 wins was reasonable. That was with Johnson actually being viewed as a downgrade from Bass. The full season of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder should positively effect our win total as well as development from Marcus Smart.

 I believe Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago are too high. While Cleveland, Miami, Indiana and Utah are too low.

Johnson is not a downgrade from Bass. As much as I like Bass it's clearly an upgrade.

Completely agree, which I think gets down to the heart of the flaw in the model. I believe he used an equation based on career win shares to predict next season's win shares. Win shares is flawed because ancillary players on teams that win a ton of games have higher win shares than better players on bad teams.

 Bass was on Celtics teams that won a lot of games so his Win shares is inflated, while Amir Johnson has only been on a few winning teams in his career (through no fault of his own) which hurts his win shares.

IMO this is also why Toronto is so high. DeMarre Carroll is overvalued at 7 win shares because of the team he played for, if he had the same exact production on last year's raptors I don't think he is worth 7 wins

Thi

[D.o.s.]

I thought the projection for the Celtics at 47 wins was reasonable. That was with Johnson actually being viewed as a downgrade from Bass. The full season of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder should positively effect our win total as well as development from Marcus Smart.

 I believe Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago are too high. While Cleveland, Miami, Indiana and Utah are too low.

Johnson is not a downgrade from Bass. As much as I like Bass it's clearly an upgrade.

Completely agree, which I think gets down to the heart of the flaw in the model. I believe he used an equation based on career win shares to predict next season's win shares.

Why guess? It's explained in the article:

In this case, what I’ve done is relatively simple: for every player who changed teams at some point during the 2014-15 season or during this off-season, I’ve transferred the amount of Win Shares each player earned last season to their current team.

Of course, a player’s 2014-15 Win Shares is somewhat reliant upon the quality of the teams he played for. And from season to season, the statistic can be affected by a number of factors—how a player fits into their team's offensive and defensive systems, any change in minutes per game, young players getting better and old players getting worse, etc.

But if you’re going to use one individual statistic to measure team wins, it’s clearly the best metric available. And it’s not as if other statistics aren’t influenced by a team’s favorable (or unfavorable) environment. Any given guard is almost certainly going to have better shooting, passing and defensive numbers on a team like San Antonio than he is with the Sixers.

To project how many Win Shares each first-round pick will produce next season, I calculated the mean amount that rookies from around their draft slot have accounted for over the last five years.

I also projected how superstars returning from injuries (Kevin Durant, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony) could affect the playoff race by extrapolating their Win Shares in the limited time they played last year to a “healthy” season.