Rozier "biggest reach" in draft

[clover]

This should be renamed to "most underrated by Mock Drafters".  Houston was taking him a couple picks after us if we didn't. And clearly the NBA GMs, not the Mock Drafters, saw what this kid had and picked him accordingly.

Thank you, yes. I'm thrilled with what we've been seeing from Rozier. I've got him penned in for significant playing time this year. They need someone who can complement Smart  by being able to guard the faster guards (the Kyrie Irvings of the world), as Bradley can, but who can also provide the point capabilities that Smart at least now doesn't have, as ET did for him last year. TR is the man.

[Boris Badenov]

Well if Bleacher Report says it, it must be right. From right after the 2013 draft:

Here are the three biggest reaches from Thursday's draft. Each player listed will have to prove his critics wrong at the NBA level.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Bucks are looking to the future, so they can afford to bring him along slowly, but the 15th pick seems awfully high for a player who has barely been tested against elite competition and hasn't been overly productive thus far.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1687557-nba-draft-results-2013-biggest-reaches-from-round-1

[KG Living Legend]

I'd like to reach over and smack the B.R. morons.

[Denis998]

bunch of idiots if you ask me. Clearly haven't watched the games and made comparisons to other players drafted.

[BlackCeltic]

If we would have drafted Upshaw instead of Thornton, it would have been a perfect draft.

[LGC88]

A reach from the media point of view can't be equal to a reach from a GM point of view.
One care about popularity, the other have work a lot to come up to a conclusion.

[clover]

If we would have drafted Upshaw instead of Thornton, it would have been a perfect draft.

Too bad Pat C. didn't last 4 more picks, because I think they would have taken him, but I"m glad they're not introducing the Upshaw dynamic on this young team. I wonder how Thornton will adjust, since he looks a bit overmatched in SL. It'd be interesting if he could at least stick up in Maine for the year, rather than go overseas, since they teach the C's system and we'd be able to watch how he progresses. I'd have been interested in seeing them take Dakari Johnson or Satnam Singh. Oh, well.

[LGC88]

Honestly, I would be more concerned about why those players were picked up so low :
- Winslow
- RJ Hunter
- Mickey

[danglertx]

Obviously SL games don't mean much, but after CJ Fair single handedly got Philly back into the game, the Celtics were up by four with the ball and a little over a minute left and Rozier hit the daggar three to pretty much seal it.  It was the second straight game he hit a late three to seal a win. 

I still wanted Portis and he is looking like the real deal, but I've been happy with Rozier.

[mmmmm]

Larry Nance Jr., who a lot of mock drafts had going in the 50s or even being undrafted, seems like the biggest reach in the draft.

TP. I'm also a big fan of the NFL and especially the draft and this happens every year. "Big reach" is hyperbole used by media to really say "There was a discrepancy between the media and Real Life Basketball Evaluators on this pick."

A lot of media people are lazy. For every one person in the media who actually goes to games and watches tape there are 10-500 that just hang onto that person's word from months ago. It takes a good 2-4 years to really evaluate a draft, anyway, but if we're going to jump to early conclusions:

- Rozier currently looks like he belongs right where he was drafted. Mudiay and Russell shown more NBA point guard characteristics (much better vision, better passing) but they were taken in the top of the lottery
- RJ Hunter looks like the steal of the 1st round at his given position for this draft
- Jordan Mickey looks like another steal

Tommy Point.

Spot on.  This exactly captures my thoughts.

The linked bleacher report discussion / 'analysis' is woefully lacking in the latter.

I was shocked by the pick on draft night as much as anyone, but after doing more research into what was behind the decision, it became clear that Rozier had been climbing up GM draft boards through his private workouts.   We had him in twice.  Houston (with the #18 pick) had him in twice and is rumored to have given him a draft promise.  The Bulls had him in three times and had the #22 pick.

Danny & Brad clearly saw something in his workouts that made them move him up their boards and they were probably aware of which other teams he worked out for.  They had to assume those other teams would have seen the same thing.  Even before the draft, Danny had been asked if any one player had really "wowed" them in workouts and he said that yes, one guy had done so.  I'm guessing now that that was Rozier.

That kinda adds up to the conclusion that there was very little chance he would still be on the board at #28.  And "trading down" one slot to get him at 17 (to prevent him from being taken at 18) would have been borderline a pointless move.

As someone else pointed out, it matters very little what all the public "mocks" and media "big boards" had to say about where each player should be ranked.  All that matters in the end is where the players were on the GM boards.  And they don't exactly share their impressions from those workouts!

I concur with the impression that, from what he has shown so far in SL, it doesn't look like a reach at all at #16.

To be fair, after the first couple of games of SL, given how a couple of the 'alternatives that Danny could have picked' did post some big initial SL games, I can understand how some would hold on to the initial impression.

But Rozier has looked better and better as the games have progressed.

[LGC88]

Larry Nance Jr., who a lot of mock drafts had going in the 50s or even being undrafted, seems like the biggest reach in the draft.

TP. I'm also a big fan of the NFL and especially the draft and this happens every year. "Big reach" is hyperbole used by media to really say "There was a discrepancy between the media and Real Life Basketball Evaluators on this pick."

A lot of media people are lazy. For every one person in the media who actually goes to games and watches tape there are 10-500 that just hang onto that person's word from months ago. It takes a good 2-4 years to really evaluate a draft, anyway, but if we're going to jump to early conclusions:

- Rozier currently looks like he belongs right where he was drafted. Mudiay and Russell shown more NBA point guard characteristics (much better vision, better passing) but they were taken in the top of the lottery
- RJ Hunter looks like the steal of the 1st round at his given position for this draft
- Jordan Mickey looks like another steal

Tommy Point.

Spot on.  This exactly captures my thoughts.

The linked bleacher report discussion / 'analysis' is woefully lacking in the latter.

I was shocked by the pick on draft night as much as anyone, but after doing more research into what was behind the decision, it became clear that Rozier had been climbing up GM draft boards through his private workouts.   We had him in twice.  Houston (with the #18 pick) had him in twice and is rumored to have given him a draft promise.  The Bulls had him in three times and had the #22 pick.

Danny & Brad clearly saw something in his workouts that made them move him up their boards and they were probably aware of which other teams he worked out for.  They had to assume those other teams would have seen the same thing.  Even before the draft, Danny had been asked if any one player had really "wowed" them in workouts and he said that yes, one guy had done so.  I'm guessing now that that was Rozier.

That kinda adds up to the conclusion that there was very little chance he would still be on the board at #28.  And "trading down" one slot to get him at 17 (to prevent him from being taken at 18) would have been borderline a pointless move.

As someone else pointed out, it matters very little what all the public "mocks" and media "big boards" had to say about where each player should be ranked.  All that matters in the end is where the players were on the GM boards.  And they don't exactly share their impressions from those workouts!

I concur with the impression that, from what he has shown so far in SL, it doesn't look like a reach at all at #16.

To be fair, after the first couple of games of SL, given how a couple of the 'alternatives that Danny could have picked' did post some big initial SL games, I can understand how some would hold on to the initial impression.

But Rozier has looked better and better as the games have progressed.

TP
In fact, Boston were lucky that Hunter and Mickey were still there. Danny and Brad both expected those players would be gone by the time they pick.
I'm very happy with what this organisation came up to in this draft. Regardless of the outcome, I understand the moves and agree they were the best ones to do regarding the picks positions.

[PhoSita]

Well if Bleacher Report says it, it must be right. From right after the 2013 draft:

Here are the three biggest reaches from Thursday's draft. Each player listed will have to prove his critics wrong at the NBA level.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Bucks are looking to the future, so they can afford to bring him along slowly, but the 15th pick seems awfully high for a player who has barely been tested against elite competition and hasn't been overly productive thus far.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1687557-nba-draft-results-2013-biggest-reaches-from-round-1

From one standpoint, Giannis was a reach.  He was entirely unproven at any level of competition that matters.

On the other hand, Giannis had obvious high level potential.  He has yet to come close to fully realizing, but appears well on his way.  In that sense, you could argue Giannis was picked late, even without the advantage of hindsight.

[Rosco917]

If Rozier were a talented passer in college, combined with the skills he currently possess, he would have been a consideration for our first pick. But now we're in the very familiar position of trying to train him to be a point guard. Like we did with AB and we're doing with Smart, luckily Smart at 6-4 220 can also be a SG.

Portis is looking really good in the summer league, great motor, no fear, nice scoring ability, aggressive, confident. 6-11 etc. Not drafting him could be a big mistake.
 

[max215]

If Rozier were a talented passer in college, combined with the skills he currently possess, he would have been a consideration for our first pick. But now we're in the very familiar position of trying to train him to be a point guard. Like we did with AB and we're doing with Smart, luckily Smart at 6-4 220 can also be a SG.

Portis is looking really good in the summer league, great motor, no fear, nice scoring ability, aggressive, confident. 6-11 etc. Not drafting him could be a big mistake.
 

Portis scored 5 points on 1/10 from the field in his second game. Terry has probably been the best of anyone picked in the teens so far.

[LooseCannon]

Larry Nance Jr., who a lot of mock drafts had going in the 50s or even being undrafted, seems like the biggest reach in the draft.

WCS at #6 honestly seems like the biggest one to me, especially considering the roster fit.

Kings would be much better off with Mudiay, could have used the money saved on Rondo to sign Robin Lopez.

Are there other teams that would have taken WCS if they had the #6 pick?  Maybe.  Are there other teams that would have taken WCS if they had a later top ten pick and he was available?  Very likely.  Are there other teams that would have had Rozier in their remaining top five on their draft board at #16?  The evidence suggests so.  Did any team have Nance in their top ten remaining players when he went off the board?  I think there is a good chance that no one else rated Nance that high.