Another non-update update on Embiid

[colincb]

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20150710_Q_A_with_Sixers_general_manager_Sam_Hinkie.html

Q: What is the latest with Joel Embiid? The fact that it's taken some time to give an update, does that mean news isn't favorable?

A: There are meetings with various doctors who have various opinions. There are meetings with our staff about what is best for him. It's still ongoing. I think we're close [to announcing a decision]. My guess is maybe sometime next week. I don't think it will be too much longer. There hasn't been more news since the initial press release. We're just circling around a lot of the experts in this field to get their opinions. That's an important phrase - their opinions - on what course of action is best. They don't all agree sometimes. So that process takes a while.


Q: If some doctors say no and others are OK with him playing, how much of a say does Joel Embiid have in whether he plays or not? What if he says "I want to go''?

A: It's important. He's a part of this. He's a young player, and we have some expertise that we can help him with and ask questions on his behalf. He's an adult so we keep him involved every step of the way. In some ways we drive this process for him, but in some ways we're advocates on his behalf. We try to get great advice for him and for us. We wouldn't let something silly happen in either direction, so Step 1 is finding out what is silly.


Q: He had been playing and feeling great right up until the CT scan. What was his reaction to the news, and how did you handle it with him?

A: Surprised. He was surprised. Immediately I got on a flight and flew to California and took him to the surgeon. We started asking questions. We asked a ton of questions, from about him still growing to everything. Any professional athlete, much less someone as good and as big as him, there's lots of question about, "Is this case down the middle normal, like ones you've seen, or how exceptional is this case?"

- Answer coming next week. 

- Just reading between the lines and don't bet the house, but I'm getting the sense that Sixers may go for another surgery based on the above.  If more than one specialist urges surgery and others don't, one would think the Sixers would be cautious and go with the surgery. If it was just one specialist championing another surgery and everyone else saying it's OK, then this decision would already be made.

- Mention of continued growth is of interest as it might relate to improper healing.

Not surprisingly, I continue to have the opposite reaction.  I still don't see anywhere in that entire article where they are suggesting surgery is likely.  It actually seems like the discussion is about whether or not he should be green lit to play or not... which is exactly what my impression of this has been from the initial report of his CT Scan.   He feels great and the CT Scan shows there is still more healing to be done... is it fine for him to get out there right now or do they need to stay cautious and wait longer?

I wonder if Boston still has an open offer of Marcus Smart + additional assets for either Noel or Okafor... and I wonder if Smart's solid two summer league games are helping that cause... and I wonder if we'll continue to see cryptic non-reports about Embiid's health until Philly decides on whether or not they intend to roll into next season with all three centers...  or if we'll see them solve that problem soon.

I agree. It seems that Embid feels good and want to play. In the mean time, Philly prefer to be overcautious. No drama here.
As for Smart, like I was saying since March, he's the real deal. If other GMs or fans only start to see this now, I don't care much. It doesn't change the fact that Smart has huge value for Danny and that he won't part with him unless he's blown away by an offer. He's doing exactly the same thing he was doing with Rondo : consistently checking his value with other GMs. We'll hear each year trade rumors about Smart, but we should know better by now.

Don't think going to other specialists qualifies as overcautious if the foot wasn't healing as expected.

"During his visit with Dr. Richard Ferkel, a standard CT scan on Joel's right foot revealed less healing than anticipated at this point.

[moiso]

You are absolutely right, colincb.

[LGC88]

Doctors disagree, so one said "he's ok to play", the other said "better to heal a bit more before he plays".
That's why I said Philly is being overcautious. Now if you are sensitive about this word, can I just say "cautious"?
Wait maybe "delaying"?
Anyway it's all semantic to me, you get the idea.

Another idea, let's be crazy and speculate :
One doctor said "it's a career ending injury"
The other said "not so fast, we can make another surgery and hopefully he will be ready in 2 years"
In that case "overcautious" is inappropriate, true.

[moiso]

Doctors disagree, so one said "he's ok to play", the other said "better to heal a bit more before he plays".
That's why I said Philly is being overcautious. Now if you are sensitive about this word, can I just say "cautious"?
Wait maybe "delaying"?
Anyway it's all semantic to me, you get the idea.

Another idea, let's be crazy and speculate :
One doctor said "it's a career ending injury"
The other said "not so fast, we can make another surgery and hopefully he will be ready in 2 years"
In that case "overcautious" is inappropriate, true.

Another doctor might word it "not entirely safe to play yet", which is the case.

[mctyson]

If news comes out that Embiid is going to have another surgery, feel free to dance on Embiid's grave and create threads gloating about how wrong I am.  Until then, he's innocent until proven guilty.   On a scale of 1-10 of how concerned I am about Embiid's foot... I'm at a 1.5  ... and that's only because of the media hysteria.  All the facts coming out aren't that exciting. 

Can I dance on graves/create threads about how wrong you are yet??

[LarBrd33]

If news comes out that Embiid is going to have another surgery, feel free to dance on Embiid's grave and create threads gloating about how wrong I am.  Until then, he's innocent until proven guilty.   On a scale of 1-10 of how concerned I am about Embiid's foot... I'm at a 1.5  ... and that's only because of the media hysteria.  All the facts coming out aren't that exciting. 

Can I dance on graves/create threads about how wrong you are yet??

It's been done to death already. You missed the locked thread.  My avatar is me eating crow.

Here's some info on what is being done:

"There was careful consideration given to a number of options related to this particular situation," Hinkie continued. "A collective decision has been made that the best approach to promote full healing would be to proceed with a bone graft of the fracture site. We anticipate the procedure will take place in the next 7-10 days and result in Joel missing the upcoming season."

[colincb]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/deep-sixer/Embiid-likely-to-miss-season-after-2d-surgery.html

He is pain-free and outwardly jovial. However, a source said the 21-year-old is aware and concerned about the situation.

"Like I said, there's a chance his career could be over. This is like Yao Ming," a source said, noting that Yao suffered a stress fracture in the navicular bone in 2008 and again in 2009. That injury forced him to retire in 2011.

"Some people are saying this is similar to Kevin Durant," the source added. "But this is something more serious than what Kevin Durant has [a Jones fracture]. This is like the basketball [career killer]."

[colincb]

One other thing. On Thursday, Hinklie implies some disagreement among the doctors:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20150710_Q_A_with_Sixers_general_manager_Sam_Hinkie.html

Question: What is the latest with Joel Embiid? The fact that it's taken some time to give an update, does that mean news isn't favorable?

Answer: There are meetings with various doctors who have various opinions. There are meetings with our staff about what is best for him. It's still ongoing. I think we're close [to announcing a decision]. My guess is maybe sometime next week. I don't think it will be too much longer. There hasn't been more news since the initial press release. We're just circling around a lot of the experts in this field to get their opinions. That's an important phrase - their opinions - on what course of action is best. They don't all agree sometimes. So that process takes a while.

Tonight, not so much:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/76ers-embiid-surgery-season-32389078

The 76ers said they met with doctors around the globe after the realization was struck that Embiid had a setback — summoning experts from New York, North Carolina, Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, Australia, the Netherlands and Qatar to determine the course of action.

"This group of experts unanimously agreed that the routine CT scan in June did reveal less healing than anticipated, an unexpected result since Joel was not experiencing any foot pain," Hinkie said.

Hinkie is talking out of both sides of his face. Already has that rep with the media. Second time recently that he’s tried to bury news on Saturday too.

[MBunge]

If news comes out that Embiid is going to have another surgery, feel free to dance on Embiid's grave and create threads gloating about how wrong I am.  Until then, he's innocent until proven guilty.   On a scale of 1-10 of how concerned I am about Embiid's foot... I'm at a 1.5  ... and that's only because of the media hysteria.  All the facts coming out aren't that exciting. 

Can I dance on graves/create threads about how wrong you are yet??

It's been done to death already. You missed the locked thread.  My avatar is me eating crow.

Here's some info on what is being done:

"There was careful consideration given to a number of options related to this particular situation," Hinkie continued. "A collective decision has been made that the best approach to promote full healing would be to proceed with a bone graft of the fracture site. We anticipate the procedure will take place in the next 7-10 days and result in Joel missing the upcoming season."

Didn't get to mention it on the other thread but you've handled this with class.  It's easy to respect a guy who climbs out on a limb when he doesn't cry as it breaks underneath him.

Mike

[MBunge]

One other thing. On Thursday, Hinklie implies some disagreement among the doctors:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20150710_Q_A_with_Sixers_general_manager_Sam_Hinkie.html

Question: What is the latest with Joel Embiid? The fact that it's taken some time to give an update, does that mean news isn't favorable?

Answer: There are meetings with various doctors who have various opinions. There are meetings with our staff about what is best for him. It's still ongoing. I think we're close [to announcing a decision]. My guess is maybe sometime next week. I don't think it will be too much longer. There hasn't been more news since the initial press release. We're just circling around a lot of the experts in this field to get their opinions. That's an important phrase - their opinions - on what course of action is best. They don't all agree sometimes. So that process takes a while.

Tonight, not so much:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/76ers-embiid-surgery-season-32389078

The 76ers said they met with doctors around the globe after the realization was struck that Embiid had a setback — summoning experts from New York, North Carolina, Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, Australia, the Netherlands and Qatar to determine the course of action.

"This group of experts unanimously agreed that the routine CT scan in June did reveal less healing than anticipated, an unexpected result since Joel was not experiencing any foot pain," Hinkie said.

Hinkie is talking out of both sides of his face. Already has that rep with the media. Second time recently that he’s tried to bury news on Saturday too.

GMs by definition are two-faced.  I can't fault Hinkie for that.  Even an uber-confident guy like him has got to be shaken by this.

Mike

[colincb]

One other thing. On Thursday, Hinklie implies some disagreement among the doctors:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20150710_Q_A_with_Sixers_general_manager_Sam_Hinkie.html

Question: What is the latest with Joel Embiid? The fact that it's taken some time to give an update, does that mean news isn't favorable?

Answer: There are meetings with various doctors who have various opinions. There are meetings with our staff about what is best for him. It's still ongoing. I think we're close [to announcing a decision]. My guess is maybe sometime next week. I don't think it will be too much longer. There hasn't been more news since the initial press release. We're just circling around a lot of the experts in this field to get their opinions. That's an important phrase - their opinions - on what course of action is best. They don't all agree sometimes. So that process takes a while.

Tonight, not so much:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/76ers-embiid-surgery-season-32389078

The 76ers said they met with doctors around the globe after the realization was struck that Embiid had a setback — summoning experts from New York, North Carolina, Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, Australia, the Netherlands and Qatar to determine the course of action.

"This group of experts unanimously agreed that the routine CT scan in June did reveal less healing than anticipated, an unexpected result since Joel was not experiencing any foot pain," Hinkie said.

Hinkie is talking out of both sides of his face. Already has that rep with the media. Second time recently that he’s tried to bury news on Saturday too.

GMs by definition are two-faced.  I can't fault Hinkie for that.  Even an uber-confident guy like him has got to be shaken by this.

Mike

You don't play games like this. You don't have anything you want to say to the media, you don't say anything. Chad Ford, who's pretty vanilla, claims Hinkie basically lied to him outright last year before the draft. Hinkie's tried to bury news two weekends in the last few weeks. Pretty bush league. He knew on Thursday that Embiid needed surgery and who knows how much earlier. Anyway from Steve Kyler tonight:

Steve Kyler ?@stevekylerNBA 2h2 hours ago

Jahlil Okafor also said he knew about Joel Embiid's surgery a few days ago - said his own role won't change, is here to "dominate"

[mctyson]

Here's some info on what is being done:

"There was careful consideration given to a number of options related to this particular situation," Hinkie continued. "A collective decision has been made that the best approach to promote full healing would be to proceed with a bone graft of the fracture site. We anticipate the procedure will take place in the next 7-10 days and result in Joel missing the upcoming season."

I think his long-term career is in major jeopardy.  It's perfectly possible that he sits out the first 2 seasons of his career due to chronic foot injuries/healing issues and comes back to be an All-NBA player.  I think this scenario might be unprecedented in NBA history.

As for the Sixers and the other tanking teams...this is exhibit 1A as to why tanking is a very dangerous strategy.  No team is immune to drafting a guy that is either physically or talent-wise a complete dud.  So now the Sixers fans and their wonderful season-ticket holders have another season of 15-20 wins to look forward to.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Here's some info on what is being done:

"There was careful consideration given to a number of options related to this particular situation," Hinkie continued. "A collective decision has been made that the best approach to promote full healing would be to proceed with a bone graft of the fracture site. We anticipate the procedure will take place in the next 7-10 days and result in Joel missing the upcoming season."

I think his long-term career is in major jeopardy.  It's perfectly possible that he sits out the first 2 seasons of his career due to chronic foot injuries/healing issues and comes back to be an All-NBA player.  I think this scenario might be unprecedented in NBA history.

As for the Sixers and the other tanking teams...this is exhibit 1A as to why tanking is a very dangerous strategy.  No team is immune to drafting a guy that is either physically or talent-wise a complete dud.  So now the Sixers fans and their wonderful season-ticket holders have another season of 15-20 wins to look forward to.

And the Andrew Bynum trade is exhibit 1A to why acquiring a star is just as risky, you gut the team and if he gets hurt have nothing left to fall back on. The Sixers will win 25+ this year, they're clearly a lot better than they were this time 1 year ago. I was hoping Embiid would be able to return near the ASB or new year if he had to get surgery, but it's obviously more serious than that. At this point if he pans out he's found money, but the Sixers can mitigate this a bit easier than most rebuilding teams.

[MBunge]

Here's some info on what is being done:

"There was careful consideration given to a number of options related to this particular situation," Hinkie continued. "A collective decision has been made that the best approach to promote full healing would be to proceed with a bone graft of the fracture site. We anticipate the procedure will take place in the next 7-10 days and result in Joel missing the upcoming season."

I think his long-term career is in major jeopardy.  It's perfectly possible that he sits out the first 2 seasons of his career due to chronic foot injuries/healing issues and comes back to be an All-NBA player.  I think this scenario might be unprecedented in NBA history.

As for the Sixers and the other tanking teams...this is exhibit 1A as to why tanking is a very dangerous strategy.  No team is immune to drafting a guy that is either physically or talent-wise a complete dud.  So now the Sixers fans and their wonderful season-ticket holders have another season of 15-20 wins to look forward to.

And the Andrew Bynum trade is exhibit 1A to why acquiring a star is just as risky, you gut the team and if he gets hurt have nothing left to fall back on. The Sixers will win 25+ this year, they're clearly a lot better than they were this time 1 year ago. I was hoping Embiid would be able to return near the ASB or new year if he had to get surgery, but it's obviously more serious than that. At this point if he pans out he's found money, but the Sixers can mitigate this a bit easier than most rebuilding teams.

Boston is rebuilding and they could probably lose two players and not only win more than Philly next year but still be better positioned to improve in the future.  After two plus straight years of tanking, Philly looks to have two very good but one-dimensional guys who play the same position and maybe one or two other rotation-quality players on their roster.  They could finish year three of their rebuild still needing to find three starters and three or four bench players to just to be a legitimate playoff contender.

Mike

[footey]

This latest set back is misinterpreted as Exhibit A of the Case that Tanking is wrong.

I disagree. It has nothing to do with tanking, and its perils.  As someone (LB?) pointed out, the Sixers tried to get Andrew Bynum in a trade, which had nothing to do with tanking, and got burned, even worse. 

It is an example of the risk of taking a chance on a player, particularly a really big player, who has a pre-existing foot/leg injury.  The moral of the story should be: Tread very lightly. 

In Embiid's case, I recall the medical interpretation of doctors of his medical chart following his foot injury during pre-draft was for a full recovery. (Difficult to tell, since Embiid's agent only released it to a few teams, as a strategy matter (did not want to be drafted by UT or ORL).  Danny himself said that he would have picked him had he been available.

The next time a big man with super star potential and foot problems presents itself (it will happen again, sooner than you think), I wonder if guys like Hinkie and Danny will think twice, and really grill the doctors who are giving them advice, before biting the bullet? 

I don't know what I would do.  Often we get so blinded by the upside, we downplay the risk.  For all we know about Embiid today, some (probably me, maybe Danny) would still be willing to offer a decent package to take the gamble he will eventually fully recover, because when we watch his tape, you can easily project a dominant player, he looked that good.