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Danny isn't panicking
« on: July 03, 2015, 04:18:44 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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But maybe he should?  Or maybe not. 

You do have to admire the team's patience.  You have to wonder if the options just aren't there or if the team thinks they can do better. 

From what I understand, the price was "too high" to move up on draft night.  It's unclear if "too high" means "impossible".   Reportedly we were willing to give up 6 draft picks to move up to #9, but I've heard conflicting information on what those picks entailed.  I've heard that 4 of them might have been worthless 2nd round fodder.  The other two were probably #16 and #28.  I'd turn that down too.     Reportedly, we were willing to give up Sullinger for #4.  Well, yeah... obviously we were willing to give up Sullinger for #4.  That's a no brainer.  Did we attempt to give up more than that?  It's unclear.   It seems Ainge decided they were better off saving the assets and seeing where free agency lead us.

Free agency has been a bust.  We apparently couldn't even get meetings with top players like Love and Aldridge.  It's been reported that the team is trying to maximize flexibility for bigger fish.  Bigger fish than Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love?   So instead we bring back a couple of our guys (Crowder/Jerebko) and swap out Bass with an overpaid Amir Johnson.  Granted, the Johnson contract should be tradeable later this season.

So now what... the team is setting themselves up to stay in the running for a potential DeMarcus Cousins trade?   They are holding out hope that when Philly inevitably trades one of their franchise bigs, we'll be able to make an offer?   Waiting to see if Melo becomes available?  Someone else?   

Waiting.... waiting... waiting...

So fine.  I begrudgingly respect it.  There's no master plan here.  We'll probably roll our assets into next season and hope for the best.   I'm trying to look into Ainge's mind and here's what I'd guess he's thinking:

- "Well, let's see if Smart can develop into more than a defensive role player.  He can only really gain value from here.  Kid could be special.  Let's not Billups or Joe Johnson him."

- "Well let's see how Sully looks.  He was averaging like 17 points, and 9 rebounds before his injury... he put up a respectable 12 points, 7 rebonds during the playoffs (in on 20mpg).  Healthy Sully can only gain value."

- "Let's see if James Young shows some growth.  Kid has a lot of potential.  Let's keep an eye on him in summer league.  In a few short weeks, teams might have him on their radar."

- "You know what, let's just throw all these rookies into the fire and see if one of them surprises us.  Rozier might turn heads.  RJ Hunter might be something.  MIckey might be something.   Teams might be interested after summer league" 

- "Olynyk shot 53%/48%/100% during the final month of the season.   Let's see what he can do with a bigger role next year. "

- "Let's give Crowder a bigger shot.  He seems to be developing.  Maybe he'll improve."

- "You know, Evan Turner was actually kind of impressive once we ran the ball through him.  11 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds post-all-star.  Let's start him out of the gate and see if we can eventually sell high on him."

-  "Let's see what happens with these Brooklyn picks.  Sure, they are probably a playoff team next year, but maybe... just maybe... they'll end up bottom 5"

- "Let's see what happens with this Dallas pick next year.  If they strike out on DeAndre Jordan and Dirk gets injured, it's not unthinkable that we'll have a lotto pick"

- "We finished the season at a 50 win pace.  Maybe it wasn't a fluke?  Let's see if this Isaiah Thomas gimmick is sustainable. "

-  "Let's see if how Amir Johnson fits in.  Maybe we can inflate his trade value and flip him in a few months"

-  "Let's not screw ourselves out of a shot at getting DeMarcus Cousins.  Let's not do anything until that shoe drops"

- "Let's keep in constant communication with Philly.   Save every last asset so when they are ready to cash in, we'll be the first people they call.  Noel/Embiid/Okafor... doesn't matter"

-  "Let's see who enters the trade market next season.  Maybe better options will become available"

- "You know what... maybe we should just wait until next offseason...  Let Wallace expire organically... try to convince Durant to come here and bring two of his best friends at max money.  Let's not blow our wad on long term deals to guys like Monta Ellis"

Waiting... waiting... waiting...

Perhaps it's the smart move.   But at some point do you have to wonder if maybe we're just perpetually "waiting until next year".   We'll always have questions about our assets.  When is it time to just cash in with the best you can get?    Teams are improving.  Talent attracts talent.  The teams that are improving will be first in line to improve again next year when the cap jumps 20 mil.  Those teams will be first in line to improve again a year after that when the cap jumps all the way to 108 mil.      If Boston couldn't get meetings with free agents this year, what makes us think we can get meetings with them in 2016 or 2017?  What if all of our assets bust?  What if Smart peaks at poor man's Tony Allen?  What if Sully eats himself to death?  What if Olynyk's t-rex arms never grow?  What if Jerry Hozier can't even crack our d-league?  What if the Brooklyn and Dallas (who just signed DeAndre Jordan literally as I'm typing this sentence) picks end up in the unwanted 15-20 range?.  What if we can't beat the Lakers offer for Cousins?   What if Philly has no interest in our assets and trades one of the bigs to a team that can offer an allstar at a different position?  What if Brad gets fed up with the roster and bails for the NCAA?  What this roster struggles into a 32 win season next year (completely plausible) and we're stuck picking in the 12-17 range again? 

I respect that Danny isn't panicking... but maybe he should.


« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 04:30:30 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2015, 04:29:08 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Panic, why?

I don't see any reason to panic.

Also take into consideration, yes we might've started the rebuild process 2 seasons ago, but this is really the first off-season after we finally finished deconstructing the roster (only one piece left, Wallace).

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2015, 04:33:13 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Panic, why?

I don't see any reason to panic.

Also take into consideration, yes we might've started the rebuild process 2 seasons ago, but this is really the first off-season after we finally finished deconstructing the roster (only one piece left, Wallace).
Danny is a great GM.

Whenever a GM takes over a team there's always that cliche line about building a contender in 3-5 seasons.  Danny Ainge might be the only GM I've ever seen to successfully pull that off.  He took over a perpetual bottom-dweller in 2003.  By 2007, he had built a contender.  4 years. 

He's earned my patience.  It's been a couple years since we traded away KG and Pierce.  He's got a few years left until you can really call this Ainge 2.0 Team a failure.

By the way... who else can you think of that has successfully traded into a champion?  It's pretty rare.  Usually champions are built via draft and free agency.

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 04:35:10 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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But maybe he should?  Or maybe not. 

You do have to admire the team's patience.  You have to wonder if the options just aren't there or if the team thinks they can do better. 

From what I understand, the price was "too high" to move up on draft night.  It's unclear if "too high" means "impossible".   Reportedly we were willing to give up 6 draft picks to move up to #9, but I've heard conflicting information on what those picks entailed.  I've heard that 4 of them might have been worthless 2nd round fodder.  The other two were probably #16 and #28.  I'd turn that down too.     Reportedly, we were willing to give up Sullinger for #4.  Well, yeah... obviously we were willing to give up Sullinger for #4.  That's a no brainer.  Did we attempt to give up more than that?  It's unclear.   It seems Ainge decided they were better off saving the assets and seeing where free agency lead us.

Free agency has been a bust.  We apparently couldn't even get meetings with top players like Love and Aldridge.  It's been reported that the team is trying to maximize flexibility for bigger fish.  Bigger fish than Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love?   So instead we bring back a couple of our guys (Crowder/Jerebko) and swap out Bass with an overpaid Amir Johnson.  Granted, the Johnson contract should be tradeable later this season.

So now what... the team is setting themselves up to stay in the running for a potential DeMarcus Cousins trade?   They are holding out hope that when Philly inevitably trades one of their franchise bigs, we'll be able to make an offer?   Waiting to see if Melo becomes available?  Someone else?   

Waiting.... waiting... waiting...

So fine.  I begrudgingly respect it.  There's no master plan here.  We'll probably roll our assets into next season and hope for the best.   I'm trying to look into Ainge's mind and here's what I'd guess he's thinking:

- "Well, let's see if Smart can develop into more than a defensive role player.  He can only really gain value from here.  Kid could be special.  Let's not Billups or Joe Johnson him."

- "Well let's see how Sully looks.  He was averaging like 17 points, and 9 rebounds before his injury... he put up a respectable 12 points, 7 rebonds during the playoffs (in on 20mpg).  Healthy Sully can only gain value."

- "Let's see if James Young shows some growth.  Kid has a lot of potential.  Let's keep an eye on him in summer league.  In a few short weeks, teams might have him on their radar."

- "You know what, let's just throw all these rookies into the fire and see if one of them surprises us.  Rozier might turn heads.  RJ Hunter might be something.  MIckey might be something.   Teams might be interested after summer league" 

- "Olynyk shot 53%/48%/100% during the final month of the season.   Let's see what he can do with a bigger role next year. "

- "Let's give Crowder a bigger shot.  He seems to be developing.  Maybe he'll improve."

- "You know, Evan Turner was actually kind of impressive once we ran the ball through him.  11 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds post-all-star.  Let's start him out of the gate and see if we can eventually sell high on him."

-  "Let's see what happens with these Brooklyn picks.  Sure, they are probably a playoff team next year, but maybe... just maybe... they'll end up bottom 5"

- "Let's see what happens with this Dallas pick next year.  If they strike out on DeAndre Jordan and Dirk gets injured, it's not unthinkable that we'll have a lotto pick"

- "We finished the season at a 50 win pace.  Maybe it wasn't a fluke?  Let's see if this Isaiah Thomas gimmick is sustainable. "

-  "Let's see if how Amir Johnson fits in.  Maybe we can inflate his trade value and flip him in a few months"

-  "Let's not screw ourselves out of a shot at getting DeMarcus Cousins.  Let's not do anything until that shoe drops"

- "Let's keep in constant communication with Philly.   Save every last asset so when they are ready to cash in, we'll be the first people they call.  Noel/Embiid/Okafor... doesn't matter"

-  "Let's see who enters the trade market next season.  Maybe better options will become available"

- "You know what... maybe we should just wait until next offseason...  Let Wallace expire organically... try to convince Durant to come here and bring two of his best friends at max money.  Let's not blow our wad on long term deals to guys like Monta Ellis"

Waiting... waiting... waiting...

Perhaps it's the smart move.   But at some point do you have to wonder if maybe we're just perpetually "waiting until next year".   We'll always have questions about our assets.  When is it time to just cash in with the best you can get?    Teams are improving.  Talent attracts talent.  The teams that are improving will be first in line to improve again next year when the cap jumps 20 mil.  Those teams will be first in line to improve again a year after that when the cap jumps all the way to 108 mil.      If Boston couldn't get meetings with free agents this year, what makes us think we can get meetings with them in 2016 or 2017?  What if all of our assets bust?  What if Smart peaks at poor man's Tony Allen?  What if Sully eats himself to death?  What if Olynyk's t-rex arms never grow?  What if Jerry Hozier can't even crack our d-league?  What if the Brooklyn and Dallas (who just signed DeAndre Jordan literally as I'm typing this sentence) picks end up in the unwanted 15-20 range?.  What if we can't beat the Lakers offer for Cousins?   What if Philly has no interest in our assets and trades one of the bigs to a team that can offer an allstar at a different position?  What if Brad gets fed up with the roster and bails for the NCAA?  What this roster struggles into a 32 win season next year (completely plausible) and we're stuck picking in the 12-17 range again? 

I respect that Danny isn't panicking... but maybe he should.
what!?!?! ainge didnt want to pay 7 draft picks to move up 6 places??!! what an incompetent ****!! nothing less than firing him for not making decisions based on panic is acceptable!!

and to think that ainge operates without any forward, organized, coherent thinking to guide him??!! fire his ass twice!!
yawn.
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Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 04:45:11 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Good post. TP.

Danny's blueprint is the Daryl Morey plan. Tread water without moving too radically in either direction and bug the hell out of teams that have stars or potential stars until they're forced to trade those players for our pretty good but not great assets. It worked with Harden. Hopefully it works with Noel or Cousins - or any other star. It looked like it was going to work with Dragic, but I'm kinda glad he wasn't our Harden anyways.


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Cap space: $24 mil.

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Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2015, 04:46:02 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Panic, why?

I don't see any reason to panic.

Also take into consideration, yes we might've started the rebuild process 2 seasons ago, but this is really the first off-season after we finally finished deconstructing the roster (only one piece left, Wallace).
Danny is a great GM.

Whenever a GM takes over a team there's always that cliche line about building a contender in 3-5 seasons.  Danny Ainge might be the only GM I've ever seen to successfully pull that off.  He took over a perpetual bottom-dweller in 2003.  By 2007, he had built a contender.  4 years. 

He's earned my patience.  It's been a couple years since we traded away KG and Pierce.  He's got a few years left until you can really call this Ainge 2.0 Team a failure.

By the way... who else can you think of that has successfully traded into a champion?  It's pretty rare.  Usually champions are built via draft and free agency.

If Ainge was panicking, I would think he would've gone extremely hard after Monroe and gotten him. I do think he's patient enough to not make a mistake that would strangle-hold us like it does many teams who feel the heat of showing at the very least progress.

For now all I can ask of Ainge is to not screw up our future, and be opportunistic when needed.

Luck is always needed, but when luck comes you better be in position to take it, and I think we're there or almost there.

I don't buy into the 3-5 year cliche myself. It's really a dumb thing, it's extremely hard to get to the top. Few teams make it in a decade.

That said, I personally feel it was a mistake not to go hard after Monroe.

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2015, 04:51:26 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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what!?!?! ainge didnt want to pay 7 draft picks to move up 6 places??!! what an incompetent ****!! nothing less than firing him for not making decisions based on panic is acceptable!!

and to think that ainge operates without any forward, organized, coherent thinking to guide him??!! fire his ass twice!!
yawn.
If 6 of those draft picks were 2nd rounders, they are basically worthless.   So yeah... if Ainge wasn't willing to give up more than #16, #28 + garbage waiver fodder, I don't blame the Hornets for refusing to move down.   No way Hozier + Hunter + 2nd rounders is worth a blue chip like Winslow.      BUt we haven't gotten confirmation on any of that.  I doubt Danny was willing to part with unprotected 1sts like the Brooklyn or Dallas picks.  Maybe he should have?   

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2015, 04:55:49 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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what!?!?! ainge didnt want to pay 7 draft picks to move up 6 places??!! what an incompetent ****!! nothing less than firing him for not making decisions based on panic is acceptable!!

and to think that ainge operates without any forward, organized, coherent thinking to guide him??!! fire his ass twice!!
yawn.
If 6 of those draft picks were 2nd rounders, they are basically worthless.   So yeah... if Ainge wasn't willing to give up more than #16, #28 + garbage waiver fodder, I don't blame the Hornets for refusing to move down.   No way Hozier + Hunter + 2nd rounders is worth a blue chip like Winslow.      BUt we haven't gotten confirmation on any of that.  I doubt Danny was willing to part with unprotected 1sts like the Brooklyn or Dallas picks.  Maybe he should have?

I think it was confirmed that he offered at least 16 + 28 + Dallas 1st.


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Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2015, 04:59:16 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I think Ainge did panic when he couldn't trade into the top 10 and went overboard on his offer to the Hornets.  To come out after not succeeding in trading up and say teams were going to regret turning down his offers was rather silly. 

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2015, 05:02:17 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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what!?!?! ainge didnt want to pay 7 draft picks to move up 6 places??!! what an incompetent ****!! nothing less than firing him for not making decisions based on panic is acceptable!!

and to think that ainge operates without any forward, organized, coherent thinking to guide him??!! fire his ass twice!!
yawn.
If 6 of those draft picks were 2nd rounders, they are basically worthless.   So yeah... if Ainge wasn't willing to give up more than #16, #28 + garbage waiver fodder, I don't blame the Hornets for refusing to move down.   No way Hozier + Hunter + 2nd rounders is worth a blue chip like Winslow.      BUt we haven't gotten confirmation on any of that.  I doubt Danny was willing to part with unprotected 1sts like the Brooklyn or Dallas picks.  Maybe he should have?

I think it was confirmed that he offered at least 16 + 28 + Dallas 1st.
The report was that it was up to 4 1sts and up to 6 picks total.  So I think the Twolves 1st was probably involved since it is likely to convert to two 2nds. 

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2015, 05:03:03 PM »

Offline Scintan

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I think Ainge did panic when he couldn't trade into the top 10 and went overboard on his offer to the Hornets.  To come out after not succeeding in trading up and say teams were going to regret turning down his offers was rather silly.

Danny's offer, if it was what's been reported, wasn't all that great.  And, now, with Jordan reportedly going to the Mavericks, it's even less impressive.  It certainly wasn't 'overboard'.


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Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2015, 05:03:40 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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By the way... who else can you think of that has successfully traded into a champion?  It's pretty rare.  Usually champions are built via draft and free agency.


Detriot in 2004

Los Angeles for the second run with Kobe

Miami (technically speaking).
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2015, 05:06:44 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 508

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This is a really good thread and I am glad I read it, TP.

TheFlex I agree with what you said, who do think the big names to come available will be?
2019 historical draft.  Pick 12

Tim Duncan, Oscar Robertson, Elgin Baylor, Scottie Pippen, Willis Reed, Mitch Richmond, Sam Jones, Dan Majerle, Bob Cousy, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Kemp, Marcus Camby

Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2015, 05:12:18 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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This is a really good thread and I am glad I read it, TP.

TheFlex I agree with what you said, who do think the big names to come available will be?

Cousins and one of the Philly bigs are the most obvious, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the two Raptor studs (DeRozan and Valanciunas) become available, and Derrick Favors come to mind.

Best case scenario? For some reason Minnesota doesn't work out and both Wiggins and Towns want out.


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

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Re: Danny isn't panicking
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2015, 05:26:30 PM »

Offline MBunge

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what!?!?! ainge didnt want to pay 7 draft picks to move up 6 places??!! what an incompetent ****!! nothing less than firing him for not making decisions based on panic is acceptable!!

and to think that ainge operates without any forward, organized, coherent thinking to guide him??!! fire his ass twice!!
yawn.
If 6 of those draft picks were 2nd rounders, they are basically worthless.   So yeah... if Ainge wasn't willing to give up more than #16, #28 + garbage waiver fodder, I don't blame the Hornets for refusing to move down.   No way Hozier + Hunter + 2nd rounders is worth a blue chip like Winslow.     

They didn't turn down the offer to take Winslow.  They took Kaminsky.  I know you don't want to acknowledge that because it makes the Hornets look dumb and not Ainge, but it remains the truth.

Mike