Stringing Fans Along

[PhoSita]

Much breath and many words have been spent on what Philadelphia is doing in its rebuild.

One of the common sentiments is that tanking and aiming to build through the draft -- which is a crapshoot, all agree -- is basically one really effective long con.  Bill Simmons, I believe, is the one who likened it to a Ponzi scheme when the Sixers traded the reigning Rookie of the Year for yet another future 1st.  You don't have to deliver results because being bad is the goal.  You just have to draft the 5-star prospects that fall into your lap each June.  Rinse and repeat, until sometime 5 years from now they finally realize this is a bridge to nowhere.  Right?

Today when I was reading once again about all of the assets and flexibility Danny Ainge has, and how the Celts will once again have oodles of cap space next summer, I wondered to myself, "Well, how is this different?"

Isn't Danny Ainge stringing fans along with the nebulous hope that all of these moves will amount to something?  That these moves, that don't point in any particular direction or sketch out a clear plan, will eventually culminate in the blockbuster trade or major free agent signing, or both, that suddenly snaps the franchise out of the doldrums?

After "fireworks!" turned into cheap firecrackers last summer, this off-season was hopefully going to be different.  The team was going to move up in the draft.  A free agent would sign here; if not a major name, at least one of the second tier guys.  None of that has materialized, and it appears we'll have more or less the same team at the start of next season. 

Of course, we're already hearing that Danny Ainge might be able to make a big move at the deadline with all of these expiring deals, or make a move in the draft next year with his fist full of first round draft picks.  The Celts will have 60 million in cap space next year!  Fireworks 3.0 people!

I guess the counterpoint is that Danny Ainge has actually delivered "results," i.e., the team has actually won some games and even made the playoffs since the rebuild began.  But how much value do we place on that when the team got swept and most of the players who were a part of that run will probably have been traded or simply allowed to leave in free agency by the time the team is really good again?


This isn't to knock Ainge so much as it is to push people to articulate why what Hinkie has done in Philadelphia is so much worse.  In both cases, isn't the GM asking much of the fans to have faith that he knows what he's doing and this will all make sense in time?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I've thought of that myself. It seems like we have been on the hamster wheel to no where.

But then I remembered that this is going about as well as it can. We made the playoffs last year. We have one of the youngest teams in the league with interesting guys at every position. Projecting our finish last year, we might be a 45-50 win team in the East this year.

We will be competitive this year without overpaying anyone. All the while, Danny has not overspent (like the Kings) on desperate moves to get overpayed talent. We have a lot of assets, a lot of good young players, and a lot of cap flexibility.

Not only is Danny looking for the future, but at the same time, we are presently performing well with a very young team that has good upside. That's about as much as we can hope for.

[hwangjini_1]

Much breath and many words have been spent on what Philadelphia is doing in its rebuild.

One of the common sentiments is that tanking and aiming to build through the draft -- which is a crapshoot, all agree -- is basically one really effective long con.  Bill Simmons, I believe, is the one who likened it to a Ponzi scheme when the Sixers traded the reigning Rookie of the Year for yet another future 1st.  You don't have to deliver results because being bad is the goal.  You just have to draft the 5-star prospects that fall into your lap each June.  Rinse and repeat, until sometime 5 years from now they finally realize this is a bridge to nowhere.  Right?

Today when I was reading once again about all of the assets and flexibility Danny Ainge has, and how the Celts will once again have oodles of cap space next summer, I wondered to myself, "Well, how is this different?"

Isn't Danny Ainge stringing fans along with the nebulous hope that all of these moves will amount to something?  That these moves, that don't point in any particular direction or sketch out a clear plan, will eventually culminate in the blockbuster trade or major free agent signing, or both, that suddenly snaps the franchise out of the doldrums?

After "fireworks!" turned into cheap firecrackers last summer, this off-season was hopefully going to be different.  The team was going to move up in the draft.  A free agent would sign here; if not a major name, at least one of the second tier guys.  None of that has materialized, and it appears we'll have more or less the same team at the start of next season. 

Of course, we're already hearing that Danny Ainge might be able to make a big move at the deadline with all of these expiring deals, or make a move in the draft next year with his fist full of first round draft picks.  The Celts will have 60 million in cap space next year!  Fireworks 3.0 people!

I guess the counterpoint is that Danny Ainge has actually delivered "results," i.e., the team has actually won some games and even made the playoffs since the rebuild began.  But how much value do we place on that when the team got swept and most of the players who were a part of that run will probably have been traded or simply allowed to leave in free agency by the time the team is really good again?


This isn't to knock Ainge so much as it is to push people to articulate why what Hinkie has done in Philadelphia is so much worse.  In both cases, isn't the GM asking much of the fans to have faith that he knows what he's doing and this will all make sense in time?

god knows ainge has never wanted to actually transform the celtics from a bad team to a good team.

analysis contains too much intentionality and reading a specific agenda when everything else shouts the opposite. (but you have not quite donned a tin foil chapeau.)

sorry, not convinced, but i like that you are original. a tp for trying. 

[PhoSita]

analysis contains too much intentionality and reading a specific agenda when everything else shouts the opposite. (but you have not quite donned a tin foil chapeau.)

sorry, not convinved, but a tp for trying. 

I'm not sure you understand me.

It isn't my intention to suggest Ainge is actually just conning fans.  I'm sure he is actively trying to build a contender.

My point is: so is Hinkie. 

Both guys are employing methods that require fans to have faith that their GM knows what he's doing, because so far both teams are just a jumbled mess of assets.  We can try to rationalize the Celts' roster construction however we want, but the bottom line is it's a pile of assets more than it is a team. 

We just have a coach who has an incredible ability to turn make chicken salad out of you-know-what, and Ainge's strategy allows for taking on more established assets (like Isaiah Thomas) even if it hurts the team's draft position.

I guess I want to try to get people to admit that both rebuilding strategies require the fan base to have a lot of faith in the GM because it's far from guaranteed that either way is going to work out. 

The Sixers have placed all of their hopes on high draft picks. 

We have placed all of our hopes on Trader Danny.

[knuckleballer]

You make good points.  I will say that the Celtics, at least in the second half, were worth watching.  They were playing good basketball.  I even enjoyed watching them as they were swept by Cleveland and appreciated their effort.

The Sixers have been ugly to watch for a few years now.  It is also difficult to develop players in such a losing culture and terrible play.

[Celtics4ever]

When I was a kid you could get M80 firecrackers and they had a bang and could blow up stuff including you if you were not careful.   Now they are illegal, I think the other GMs see Danny Ainge as an M80, dealing with him is dangerous, a lot of the time it blows up in your face.   He is so good that they fear him.

[BudweiserCeltic]

The difference is that Hinkie is not trying to build a contender now (so in essence, stringing fans along) vs. Ainge who for all intents of purposes IS trying to build a contender now. That he hasn't managed to find a willing partner to put the pieces together, then that's another matter entirely.

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

[PhoSita]

You make good points.  I will say that the Celtics, at least in the second half, were worth watching.  They were playing good basketball.  I even enjoyed watching them as they were swept by Cleveland and appreciated their effort.

The Sixers have been ugly to watch for a few years now.  It is also difficult to develop players in such a losing culture and terrible play.

The Celts were definitely more enjoyable to watch than an all-out tank job.  That's for sure.

I wonder how long that will last, though.  Much of what I enjoyed about the team this past year was that they were a pleasant surprise.  They fought harder than opponents.  They were a scrappy underdog.

How many teams are they going to take by surprise next year?  If they really keep up the 50+ win pace heading into next year, awesome.  What if they struggle a bit?  Will they be less endearing when it's less a case of, "Wow, these guys are surprisingly fun to watch!" and more a case of, "Is this it?"

[PhoSita]

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

Absolutely. 

They're selling fans the mystique of their franchise (oh, wait, we do that too), along with "cap space!" and the "allure of the major media market."

[BudweiserCeltic]

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

Absolutely. 

They're selling fans the mystique of their franchise (oh, wait, we do that too), along with "cap space!" and the "allure of the major media market."

I think we've run off course here a bit. You're equating lack of results to stringing fans along vs. not doing a thing and stringing fans along.

[Jiri Welsch]

I think an element of cheering for a team yet to reach "consistent contender" status is this anticipatory feeling you describe.

I feel the difference between us and the Sixers is that we are not apologists of losing. The Celtics try every season to improve, and put out a product that is enjoyable for fans to watch. We may be constructing the equivalent of an NBA mid-major, as a few posters have suggested. However, I feel we can at least take pride in the fact that we try to win.

To me, that's a big difference.

[PhoSita]

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

Absolutely. 

They're selling fans the mystique of their franchise (oh, wait, we do that too), along with "cap space!" and the "allure of the major media market."

I think we've run off course here a bit. You're equating lack of results to stringing fans along vs. not doing a thing and stringing fans along.

Fair enough.  I'll agree that what the Knicks and Lakers have done is worse, though I will say that those teams, like the Sixers, have gotten high picks out of it, and there's always the chance that they get bailed out by those picks turning into stars.  No such bail out is coming for the Celtics.

I don't think the Knicks or Lakers really have a strategy or process.  They are really just waiting for their location and name to pull them out of the doldrums. 


That's why I really would like to focus on the Hinkie vs Ainge distinction.  Both guys have a process, as far as we can tell.  One is a lot more controversial than the other.  Nobody has accused Ainge of running a Ponzi scam.

I guess I just don't put much stock in the "results" we've gotten so far.  A 40 win team of role players who will probably all bounce around the league their whole careers?  That's not so much a result as a side effect of Ainge's strategy.  Yes, they were more fun to watch last year than a tank job, but that alone doesn't make Ainge's strategy so much different than Hinkie's.

[Scintan]

The difference is that Hinkie is not trying to build a contender now (so in essence, stringing fans along) vs. Ainge who for all intents of purposes IS trying to build a contender now. That he hasn't managed to find a willing partner to put the pieces together, then that's another matter entirely.

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

Ainge isn't trying to build a contender now any more than Hinkle is trying to build a contender now.  They are just using different approaches.

[PhoSita]

I think an element of cheering for a team yet to reach "consistent contender" status is this anticipatory feeling you describe.

I feel the difference between us and the Sixers is that we are not apologists of losing. The Celtics try every season to improve, and put out a product that is enjoyable for fans to watch. We may be constructing the equivalent of an NBA mid-major, as a few posters have suggested. However, I feel we can at least take pride in the fact that we try to win.

To me, that's a big difference.

I think there is merit to putting a product on the floor that's worth watching.

I wonder how different this sentiment would be if the team of scrappy role players ended up winning closer to 30 games rather than 40 (certainly possible given how many close finishes there were during the stretch run).  Would the results justify the means quite so much, in that case?

Maybe in that circumstance, we'd have ended up picking 10th or 11th and the draft pick would be the justification, rather than the playoff appearance.

I suppose I just see the team's "success" to this point more as a side-effect of Ainge's strategy and less because he's actively trying to build a competitive "mid-major" style team while still rebuilding.  The crazy state of the depth chart supports my point of view on that one, I think.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

The difference is that Hinkie is not trying to build a contender now (so in essence, stringing fans along) vs. Ainge who for all intents of purposes IS trying to build a contender now. That he hasn't managed to find a willing partner to put the pieces together, then that's another matter entirely.

Is Phil Jackson and Kupchak also stringing fans along?

I think they're both gunning for super stars. If one shakes available in a trade both these guys will be emptying the war chests looking for the next Harden/Love/Howard/Melo/etc trade.

Ainge's assets are a bit more mature than Hinkie's because he's been GM longer and came into the 2013 offseason in a significantly better spot than Hinkie. But honestly aside from Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart all he's really accumulated that would matter in a trade are draft picks and raw upside type guys. It's the same plan, executed differently.