Are we underdogs to make the playoffs in 2015-16? The East has improved...

[chambers]

It appears that teams that were mediocre/bad like us last year in the East, like the Heat, The Nets, Pacers, The Bobcats, are pushing towards at least a treadmill or higher level than us.

Ainge has stayed disciplined and decided not to blow too much cap room, even on Harris which would've been very tempting.
we're yet to finish the off season but it looks like Ainge has decided to stand pat other than adding Amir johnson.
The obvious benefit of adding Amir is that we now have a bonafied rim protector to play next to Sully, Olynyk and Zeller who is also an awesome value expiring contract.
I'm actually happier with this course of action than blowing long term cap space on mid level guys like Monroe,  Lopez etc and we ate looking more to develop our picks and current pieces under our brilliant coach.
Anyway, lets look at our competition for making the top 8 in the East...Teams that finished below us last season; in order of threat to over take us as 7th/8th seed:

-Heat sign Dragic and Bosh, and now Wade with Whiteside- *much better team than us and likely slide into playoffs*

-Pacers get Ellis, Paul George comes back, Hibbert is still there with George and Solomon Hill (for now) and they've added Myles Turner. Now with Ellis, they appear to be better than us.
Would be nice if we could trade Sully or Olynyk to them with a pick to replace David West, and take back Myles Turner.

-Hornets finally dumped Lance and have Jefferson, Kaminsky, Batum, Kidd Gilchrist, Walker and are still looking to add guys with Hawes and Zeller off the bench. *Probably slightly worse than us- but they have Jefferson, Batum and Walker so could be slightly ahead/behind. One of our biggest threats to beat us into the playoffs by a few wins.*

-Nets: Re signed Lopez and Young, and now have some stability with Lionel Hollins as head coach. Hollins is a very good coach, and they played well to sneak into the playoffs at the end of last year. *A good start with a healthy Lopez+Williams and Joe Johnson in a contract year means they are probably a better team than us unless Lopez goes down long term again*

-Magic: new veteran coach, re-signed Harris (it looks like), looking to win now (going after Milsap), young guys are a year older. *Probably a few wins below us at least, but could surprise with Skyles as coach.*

-Pistons get Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings back with Drummond, Caldwell Pope, Stanley Johnson, Ersan Ilyasova and look at other free agents (still possible but like us, have struggled in free agent market.) *not sure where they finish, could be the same as us but likely at least a few wins below. Wildcard is Van Gundy as coach*
-Knicks have Carmelo, Afflalo, drafted Porzingris and are hot favorites to sign Patrick Beverley.
*NY are no where, bottom 4 again most likely unless they add another one or two decent free agents*
-76ers: Bottom 3 in East guaranteed.

So are we actually under dogs to make the playoffs next season? What important info have I missed? Obviously free agency hasn't finished but we appear to be standing pat. Is this a development year for Smart and our bigs? I'm keen to see how Sully, Olynyk and particularly the combo of Zeller+ Amir does defensively.  Amir is a workhorse and will be a great locker room presence like Bass was last season.
Rather than fully tank, we've got the Nets and Dallas picks
 to do that for us.
Anyone else pretty happy with our current position?

[TheFlex]

Cleveland
Chicago
Atlanta
Toronto (automatic 4th because of divisional seeding format)
Indiana
Milwaukee
DC
Boston

-------------------

Detroit
Miami
Charlotte
Brooklyn
Orlando
New York
Philadelphia

[chambers]

Cleveland
Chicago
Atlanta
Toronto (automatic 4th because of divisional seeding format)
Indiana
Milwaukee
DC
Boston

-------------------

Detroit
Miami
Charlotte
Brooklyn
Orlando
New York
Philadelphia

You dont think Miami with Bosh, Dragic, Wade, Whiteside and likely Deng will be better than us?

[celticsclay]

I appreciate the effort you took putting into this. I am not saying whether we are favorites or underdogs to make the playoffs but you have to at least look at a few of the other teams through the same lens as you look at our team.

For example, I don't see how you can argue that the Nets are gaining us. At least two of their starters are in decline. They traded away their best backup big in Plumlee and have very few, if any, young and improving players. They also were completely healthy last season which is unusual for a team with players as old as them and as injury prone (Lopez). They have to be projected to regress based on these factors. Also not to tease you, but the phrase "Joe Johnson in a contract year" seems kind of like a ridiculous factor right? He is 35 years old and has made hundreds of millions of dollars, how is he going to dial it up to some level he hasn't hit to get another contract? We are not talking about a 26 year old sully that has been out of shape here.

The celtics have IT, Crowder and Jerekbro for the entire season. That has to be an improvement over last season we had a disinterested green and rondo for the first 40 games and a horrible record. I know they are not home runs but it is really hard to spin how having them all all season won't improve us. Not to mention at least some of our young players (smart, sully in a contract year, Oli) should show significant improvement.

It also warrants mentioning that the Pistons are losing Monroe who was probably their best offensive player.

 

[KeepRondo]

I'm not worried about the Nets.


Joe Johnson is one or two years from retirement. I wouldn't expect too much from him.

Williams was already too slow for his position and now he's on the wrong side of 30.

[KeepRondo]

I appreciate the effort you took putting into this. I am not saying whether we are favorites or underdogs to make the playoffs but you have to at least look at a few of the other teams through the same lens as you look at our team.

For example, I don't see how you can argue that the Nets are gaining us. At least two of their starters are in decline. They traded away their best backup big in Plumlee and have very few, if any, young and improving players. They also were completely healthy last season which is unusual for a team with players as old as them and as injury prone (Lopez). They have to be projected to regress based on these factors. Also not to tease you, but the phrase "Joe Johnson in a contract year" seems kind of like a ridiculous factor right? He is 35 years old and has made hundreds of millions of dollars, how is he going to dial it up to some level he hasn't hit to get another contract? We are not talking about a 26 year old sully that has been out of shape here.

The celtics have IT, Crowder and Jerekbro for the entire season. That has to be an improvement over last season we had a disinterested green and rondo for the first 40 games and a horrible record. I know they are not home runs but it is really hard to spin how having them all all season won't improve us. Not to mention at least some of our young players (smart, sully in a contract year, Oli) should show significant improvement.

It also warrants mentioning that the Pistons are losing Monroe who was probably their best offensive player.

Monroe was a bad fit for the Pistons. They'll be better this year.

[WeMadeIt17]

I'd say we are as good as some teams in the east. This team plays very hard and will continue to do so. I see Sully have a good season and being a big part of the success. I think the Roles will be much more distinguished now as well. If everyone is healthy it should roll like so.

Smart/IT/Rozier
AB/Turner/Young/Hunter
Crowder/Jerabko/Young/Hunter
Sully/KO/Jerabko/Amir
Zeller/Amir/KO/Sully

I could see us doing a deal or so but for what? Idk that a lot of minutes to go around since a lot of us want to see what someone like James Young can do. I wouldn't be super upset to see Turner go and Young take some of those minutes but on the flip side of that Turner was a main ball handler in the playoffs and was solid for us. All in all i think the roles are a little more figured out and adding a vet like Amir who will only add more heart and desire to this team that has so much of that already i don't see why they couldn't be a 6th seed.

[LarBrd33]

this isn't a playoff roster.

Who knows what Brad MacGyver will pull out of his butt this year, though.

[ahonui06]

I expect a trade before the season starts and with that trade I believe Boston will be fighting for a playoff spot in the 6th-8th range in the East.

[GreenCoffeeBean]

We could end up the #5 seed or dead last, and anywhere in between. It all comes down to health and our young players improving. If Smart, Young, Rozier, Hunter, Olynyk and Sullinger take that next step we could be a decent team.

I think we match up really well against teams that want to play small ball but we are destined to get destroyed by "traditional" teams with good size like Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee. THose teams will be able to score on us at will inside due to their size advantage but maybe we can develop some perimeter scoring of our own.

[D Dub]

I expect both Atlanta and Chicago to fall from grace this year.  For ATL, I think losing Carroll will really hurt.  He was their key swing that allowed their small ball lineups to thrive.  Should Milsap walk as well, they maybe battling for the 8th spot.

Chicago is another year older, and the front court of Noah/Pau is just an injury waiting to happen.  No Thibs this year either, who IMO, won them a lot of tough games with his defense alone. 

Nets just gave a big pay day to Brooke Lopez, which means he's due for a season ending injury.  They NYK haven't really moved the needle this offseason, expecting them to burn out and trade Melo by the deadline. 

The C's I expect to surprise, much like Atlanta did last year.  Here's my prediction---

Cavs
Wizards
Raptors
Pacers
Celts
Bucks
Bulls
Atlanta
-------
Miami
BLK
Charlotte
Detroit
Orlando
NYK
Philly

BTW--- heard that the league changed the division winner seeding thing.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25225183/report-nba-to-seed-playoff-teams-regardless-of-division-winner

[mahonedog88]

I think a lot of this depends on the Atlantic Division, which has the potential to be really interesting this year.

Toronto getting swept in the 1st round as a 4th seed I thought meant that the dismantling of that team was upon us, but apparently not.  They didn't get that much better, but I also don't think they've gotten that worse.  Regardless, they won 49 games and I expect them to be around that same total next year, 44-49 wins.

Boston had the second best record in the conference after the all-star break, so even without any trades this summer, switch out Bass for Amir Johnson and basically the same team is coming back with another year to gel and grow.  I guess we'll find out rather quickly if the second half of this past season was just lightning in a bottle or not. 

If not, I think a division title could be a legit possibility this coming season.  And to think that this team can go from year 1 of the Brad Stevens era winning 25 games all the way to hosting a playoff series in year 3?...that's actually pretty freakin' cool.

[Fred Roberts]

I like our chances. 

Monta Ellis is 'nice' but has never been a winner

Wade,  deng and Bosh are aging w/ health issues creeping in.

Indy has Paul coming back. Rest of the roster is sub-par.

Celtics: NOT sexy, but scrappy as they come. Offense will be ugly but we'll be good to great on D, with excellent passing and decent 3 point shooting. Older teams won't want to deal with us on a nightly basis.  Too young,  deep,  hungry.

[manl_lui]

I expect both Atlanta and Chicago to fall from grace this year.  For ATL, I think losing Carroll will really hurt.  He was their key swing that allowed their small ball lineups to thrive.  Should Milsap walk as well, they maybe battling for the 8th spot.

Chicago is another year older, and the front court of Noah/Pau is just an injury waiting to happen.  No Thibs this year either, who IMO, won them a lot of tough games with his defense alone. 

Nets just gave a big pay day to Brooke Lopez, which means he's due for a season ending injury.  They NYK haven't really moved the needle this offseason, expecting them to burn out and trade Melo by the deadline. 

The C's I expect to surprise, much like Atlanta did last year.  Here's my prediction---

Cavs
Wizards
Raptors
Pacers
Celts
Bucks
Bulls
Atlanta
-------
Miami
BLK
Charlotte
Detroit
Orlando
NYK
Philly

BTW--- heard that the league changed the division winner seeding thing.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25225183/report-nba-to-seed-playoff-teams-regardless-of-division-winner

Milsap returns to ATL - http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13184115/paul-millsap-atlanta-hawks-agree-three-year-59-million-contract

but in my Wizards may fall as well, I think Chicago is still a top 4 team in the East. In my opinion, if the East gets tougher, it's good for us for two reasons

our young team plays harder team more, for a team that plays hard, it can only get them motivated to beat them next time, even in a losing season, they'll have more experience going forward.

ANd if we do get a losing season, it'll be good for those pro-tankers out there, cuz we might be lotto team

win win

we're a young rebuilding team, I don't expect us to be a great team so fast. It takes time to be great, and great teams need obstacles to be great.

[Guardian of The Truth]

Smart/IT/Rozier
AB/Turner/Young/Hunter
Crowder/Jerabko/Young/Hunter
Sully/KO/Jerabko/Amir
Zeller/Amir/KO/Sully

On a good team (Full disclosure:  SF bay area resident and Warriors fan here) each of these guys is a 2nd tier starter or role player at best.  If other teams in the east start to impove, I can't see Boston making the playoffs next year with this roster.   And if they do manage to sneek in, it's 4 and out, thanks for playing and enjoy your out of the lottery draft pick.  Guess I will have to start looking for another team to follow with my league pass.  I will miss Abby though!