Amir Johnson to Celtics

[Monkhouse]

To all those out there worried about this signing and confused about why Danny would do it..

There is every chance that Ainge tried, but was not convinced that he would have a shot at getting a top (or even very good) free agent at comfortable price.  The deals that players were asking for may have all been deals that would have required a huge long-term investment by Danny, with a high risk of not paying off (e.g. Harris on $60M / 4).  It may be that he was not convinced that making those kind of large, long term commitments were too risky for the type of players that were available.

BUT

After making the playoffs last year, Boston have shifted from rebuilding mode to 'win now' mode, so they do still want to add pieces that they feel can help them win games.

These deals (if the reports are true) fit very nicely in to that category.  Amir Johnson gives us a legitimate improvement at the PF spot (in a bigger way than people probably realise) over the next year, and if the second year is guaranteed then it puts Ainge to remain in a great position when the big free agent spree hits after this season by either:

a) Including Johnson's $12M non-guaranteed deal in a trade
b) Declining the second year of the deal and having $12M in immediate cap space

So if anything that puts us in an even better position then we're in now because currently we don't have pure cap space, we only have TPE's that can be renounced or used. 

So if you don't see any free agent that's available to you, that you feel is willing to take a short term contract, and/or that you feel is worth committing to with a long term contract...then signing a guy like Amir with only a one year commitment makes perfect sense.

Same with Jerebko - he was great last year and showed real flashes of potential.  Now we get to trial him for one more year to see if it was just a fluke or if he has some real game in him.  If he does, we get him for an extra year - if he doesn't we can just let him go.

A 2 year deal with a second year non-guaranteed is the perfect type of contract for players like this, and for filling roles like this.

TP. Agree with all, except for the comment about Harris. Yes, I read your post about him, but I still feel like Harris can eventually become a Carmelo lite. If we pass on him when we have the chance to, I'll strike that up as a mistake.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Shoots a high percentage from the field, can defend decently, and last year stepped out to the three point line some and hit a very good .413.  I can see how maybe Danny thinks Amir can continue that. 

Jerebko, can play bigs and step out and hit the open three.

Harris, can play 4's and 3's and step out and hit the three.

Draymond Green, can play 5's down to 3's, can step out and hit the three, he hit some huge ones in the finals.

I think I see a pattern developing.  Stevens obviously wants to stretch opposing teams bigs out to the three point line, let the guards drive, and kick it out to shooting bigs.  Kind of like GS plays.

That's part of but don't forget about hard workers. If you notice since Brad has been here we have only taken gym rats. Only one player didn't fit that description and it was Young, who was young enough they thought they could get him to change his tune, apparently they have done it. Sully was here from Doc and CBS and Danny lets it be know that his lack of work/game effort is a problem. CBS doesn't bad mouth players but he has commented on Sully's effort a few times, about his conditioning and defensive effort.

[tenn_smoothie]

2 years, $24 million.

No thank you.  He's never been a favorite of mine.

Is this Danny panicking - feeling like he has to do something, anything ??

[greece66]

For instance, Boston would probably trade their entire starting lineup for Okafor...

We all have the right to our own opinions / speculations, however I don't believe this for a second.

Our starting line up + Brooklyn pics + 15 second rounders + 17 banners + Red's statue + Danny's son to work as ballboy for Philly

For Okafor.

Hinkie has a laugh and hangs up the phone.

[cltc5]

I don't get it. Why does everyone say that they are happy to have the second year non-guaranteed? We just signed the guy and everyone already sees them as expiring contracts to get rid of.

I have no idea either.

I don't get people.

Because we're building assets not a team.   

[SCeltic34]

Also I find it hilarious Jordan being idiotic and not taking our offer validates a lot of people here's idea that we have nothing of value to offer anyone.   He is a great GM after all.

a bunch of teams turned down that offer

Who else?

Miami,NY there was 1 more but can't remember now, i'll have to google it

Miami isn't interested in trading with us anyways for our pick.  Riley wouldn't trade with Ainge.

Not surprised we couldn't trade into the top 4.  That's virtually impossible to do ever.

And I'll be waiting.  Again, this is all being based off so little, it's funny.  Trading up is so hard to do because teams fall in love with their picks (as Ainge said).  Basing anything off Jordan not taking a good deal is just funny to me, especially trades that aren't aimed at moving up in a draft.

Exactly.  I don't understand how someone could conclude that just because Jordan turned down SIX picks for Frank Kaminsky that somehow our assets aren't valuable.

You can't blame Jordan for not accepting the trade though.  I imagine the conversation went something along these lines:

Ainge: "Hey MJ, I got a trade proposal for you.  I'll give you #16, #28, #33, and Philly's 2016 2nd rounder next year for #9."

Jordan: "Hmm.  Nah."

Ainge: "Alright then, I'll toss in the Dallas 2016 first rounder too".

Jordan: "No dice, Danny boy."

Ainge: *Lets out a deep sigh* "Alright MJ, I'll give you SIX picks.  Four 1st rounders, and the two second rounders I just offered you."

Jordan: *Lets out a hearty chuckle*  "Oh Danny, Danny... now why would I want six picks instead of one?  You know that I'm terrible at drafting right?  I mean absolutely frickin' terrible.  Look at my track record.  So convince me - why would I want to whiff six times instead of one?  Remember Danny, I played baseball too at one point.  And I know that six strikeouts at the plate are worse than one.  I'll stick to plan A and draft Kaminsky."

Ainge: *Looks at his phone in bewilderment* "Well... I, uh... alright then MJ.  Have a good one."

-
Our picks are valuable.  Very valuable.  Dallas might strike out in free agency this year.  Brook Lopez might suffer another major injury.  Just don't put all your stock on this happening, and don't have unrealistic expectations that every 1st rounder we have from Brooklyn and Dallas are going to land in the top 10, because that will set you up for disappointment.

I think we're doing OK.  We're upgrading the talent on our roster slowly but surely.  I'll take the rookies we have in place of players like Datome, Pressey, and Babb, all three of whom I don't expect to be on the roster on opening night.  We finally have a pretty solid defensive presence in the middle with Amir Johnson, which people have been clamoring for forever, and now all of a sudden many of these people are complaining about it?  We have him on favorable terms.  A one-year overpay isn't the end of the world.

Jerebko is easily worth 5 mil a year, even before the cap increase.

Solid moves by Danny.  Not exactly fireworks.  But we'll get there.

[gpap]

We are a bootleg Philly. Same strategy, less top young players. Thank goodness for our "flexibility" though!  So "flexible" with our crowded guard and PF positions. So "flexible" with all our rookies on the roster sitting on the bench.

What is everyone so concerned with unproven, green rookies over proven veterans who can contribute right now?

Boy has the bar been set low!!

[gpap]

I don't get it. Why does everyone say that they are happy to have the second year non-guaranteed? We just signed the guy and everyone already sees them as expiring contracts to get rid of.

I have no idea either.

I don't get people.

Because we're building assets not a team.   

I think it's time to start getting away from the "assets" mentality.

We've seen what our "assets" got us on draft night and it's safe to say they resemble asses more than assets.

Let's just stick with putting a respectable team on the court that can hopefully be a playoff contender.

[flybono]

The problem with building assets is, this isn't 2007. The NBA payroll structure keeps climbing. Thus, top tier free agents stay home or sign the 2 yr deal or opt out for a bigger payday with the same team.

As a GM You need to gamble. Either by trade or free agent.

[Kuberski33]

To anyone complaining about Johnson have you actually watched Sully, KO and Zeller play defense?
Did you actually watch Thompson and Mosgov do whatever they wanted in the Cleveland series?  This guy is providing short term help in an area where its badly needed.  If he was on last year's team they'd have won a few more games.

What concerns me a  little though is that 2nd year given that tweet about it still being negotiated.  I'm not sure why Johnson would agree to a non guaranteed second year - at this stage of his career?  Especially with his ankle issues.  That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[SCeltic34]

I don't get it. Why does everyone say that they are happy to have the second year non-guaranteed? We just signed the guy and everyone already sees them as expiring contracts to get rid of.

I have no idea either.

I don't get people.

Because we're building assets not a team.   

It's better to have assets and flexibility on a mediocre, rebuilding team than it is to have a dead-end team stuck in the middle of the road, devoid of assets and with no true chance of contending.  See: Nets, Brooklyn.  It could be a lot worse.

Johnson not only upgrades our talent, his contract is valuable in many ways.

[gpap]

If rim protection and blocks is all Ainge wanted in the "bridge" year. He should have gone after Biyombo (where is LarBrd33?)Younger. More athletic. Perhaps has potential CHA was unable to tap. And he wouldn't have cost $12 mil!

Yeah, too bad Biyombo couldn't shoot a rock into a river

[crimson_stallion]

TP. Agree with all, except for the comment about Harris. Yes, I read your post about him, but I still feel like Harris can eventually become a Carmelo lite. If we pass on him when we have the chance to, I'll strike that up as a mistake.

Not talking about my point of view on Harris here (completely leaving that out, intentionally!) I'm simply commenting on how Danny Ainge may be looking at things.

You have to consider that much like my previous comments about Philly, the value of Tobias Harris is all in his perceived upside.   I don't think there is anybody (at least very few) arguing that Harris is worth a max contract right now - most people justify it based on that they perceive his upside to be (based on age, physical tools, current level of play).

But as I said earlier with the 76ers comments, a player's "potential" is simply one's hope that the said player will develop certain abilities/skills that they do not currently have.  No matter how you look at it, investing in potential is always a risk because there is (by definition) nothing certain about it ever becoming a reality.

Another thing we need to consider is that Danny Ainge isn't just the guy who gets the cool job if choosing which players get to play on our favourite Boston Celtics team.  He is the top-level manager of a multi million dollar business.  He's the guy who tells the owners/investors of the business who he believes they should throw their million dollar investments at.  Any risk he takes as a GM is a risk to his position.  If he takes a huge gamble, and it doesn't work out, then his job is on the line. 

It's kinda like the GM of huge business convincing the owners that they should in vest in some new $40M Management Information System with the potential to increase profitability.  If that Information System is paid for, and it fails to deliver a financial benefit, then you just cost your company $40M - chances are you're fired. That also goes on your record, so it doesn't make you look good to the next potential employer.

So as the GM, you'll do a ton of market research and analysis before you decide to pitch this idea to your owners.  You want to be absolutely certain that you considered the calculated risks versus the benefits, and then make a decision on whether it's worth investing such a huge sum of money and if it's probable to pay off.

Same thing with Ainge.  Investing in a young free agent (not only Harris, but players like Harris) is potentially the equivalent of investing into a four year, $40 million project.  You're not just going to throw that money at any project that "may" be fruitful.  You're going to deeply into the project and work out what is the chance of that player become good enough that you can essentially come out feeling like your investment has been justified.  What is the risk of them coming out a big failure, and you looking bad to your owners and to the whole industry?

He may have spoken to Harris' agent, and his agent may have told Ainge that he was not interested in signing a deal for any less than 4 years, $60 million.  Ainge may have wanted to go with something more short term (3 years, with a team option on year 3) just t get a chance to see whether that player will show more of the potential, or if it was just a one year tease.  He may not have been confident committing so much cap on a player who is (so far) still somewhat unproven - regardless of upside.

[Scintan]

To anyone complaining about Johnson have you actually watched Sully, KO and Zeller play defense?
Did you actually watch Thompson and Mosgov do whatever they wanted in the Cleveland series?  This guy is providing short term help in an area where its badly needed.  If he was on last year's team they'd have won a few more games.

What concerns me a  little though is that 2nd year given that tweet about it still being negotiated.  I'm not sure why Johnson would agree to a non guaranteed second year - at this stage of his career?  Especially with his ankle issues.  That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

The worst thing you can do when you're in NBA middle class hell is to improve by "a few more games".

[jambr380]

I guess I just find it hard to believe that Johnson demanded a minimum of $12M year - it seems like a bit of an overpay.

It also prevents our ability to sign another impactful FA (ie, Green or Harris) without giving up a first to rid ourselves of Wallace.

Lastly, I would have been much happier keeping our flexibility this year for another Zeller/Thornton/1st deal. Just look at Atl absorbing Splitter from SAS. Was Amir Johnson's overflowing potential really worth limiting our options?

I mean, I am happy that the 2nd years for Jerebko and Johnson are unguaranteed, but I would rather the first years be, too.