Estimating the value of the Brooklyn 2016 first rounder

[PhoSita]

It is always easier, in this midden heap of an Eastern Conference, to end up in the middle than at the bottom.  You have to be fantastically terrible to be near the bottom.

The Nets will likely re-sign Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, and they will still have Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.  Plus, they had a decent draft night getting Steve Blake and RHJ to add to Jack and Bogdanovic on the bench.  They've also got Teletovic and a couple other OK bench pieces.

History tells us that with that mix of players, the Nets will likely end up in the 30-40 win range.


Given all that, other teams should and probably do regard the Brooklyn 2016 pick as likely to end up in the 12-20 range.  Less value than the Dallas pick, which will probably be a late lottery pick.

The 2018 Brooklyn pick is probably a much stronger asset, but then again, the Nets will have cap space by then.

[Ilikesports17]

Ive thought it was most likely to be 7-12, however I think they improved a good deal in the draft and with Young and Lopez looking like they are coming back I think I would choose the 10-14 option that, unless I am missing something, does not exist.

[Evantime34]

I think it will probably be 10 to 15, which is also where I expect the Minnesota and Dallas pick to be.

We had trouble moving up from 16 this year but it will be a lot easier next year if we have 3 picks in the 10-15 range.

[PhoSita]

I think it will probably be 10 to 15, which is also where I expect the Minnesota and Dallas pick to be.

Why do you think Minnesota will win 35-40 games next year?  It would require at least that many for the 1st rounder to vest instead of turning into a couple of seconds. 

Do you think adding Towns will make that big a difference?

[Rida]

Ehm, one option is missing from the poll
It says "top 10"
And then goes straight to "outside the lottery".
It should also include picks 11-14.

fixed

[slamtheking]

I don't get the positivity surrounding how well the Nets will perform nor the negativity regarding how other teams in the East won't improve via the draft and returning players that some people have mentioned here.

I'm figuring that unless there's a roster miracle for both the Nets and C's, they'll both be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.  Same for Dallas. 
Pre-Lotto: Nets in top 7, Dallas 8-10, C's 9-12.  Unless Minny's youth movement has a complete setback, they could be anywhere from 8-14 where we get there pick if it's 13 or 14.

4 lotto picks would offer some nice leverage (with all those second rounders) to make some nice deals to move up, get good vets or both.

[TheTruthFot18]

I saw a link on BR that gave a rough estimate of the 2015-16 season standings. It had Boston at #6 and Brooklyn at #12 in the East. Also had Dallas at #9 in the West (behind Utah) which is very possible if they lose Ellis, Chandler, Rondo and gain no big FA's.

I did the whole draft order (less any trades or wacky ping pong ball movement) and it gave us #8 (BKN), #11 or #12 (DAL), and #14 (BOS). Not bad, especially if we package them with someone to move up to top 5 or even 3.

[mef730]

I saw a link on BR that gave a rough estimate of the 2015-16 season standings. It had Boston at #6 and Brooklyn at #12 in the East. Also had Dallas at #9 in the West (behind Utah) which is very possible if they lose Ellis, Chandler, Rondo and gain no big FA's.

I did the whole draft order (less any trades or wacky ping pong ball movement) and it gave us #8 (BKN), #11 or #12 (DAL), and #14 (BOS). Not bad, especially if we package them with someone to move up to top 5 or even 3.

After this year, I'm not counting on trading up, ever again, even with 8,11,14. It has become clear that any draft pick outside of the top-10 has minimal value.*

Mike

*Okay, not guaranteed to be true, but my new policy from here on out is to assume that we're stuck with what we've got. Nothing like beating expectations to make the fans happy.

[droopdog7]

On the downside, next year's draft doesn't look to have an obvious franchise player.

[BDeCosta26]

I saw a link on BR that gave a rough estimate of the 2015-16 season standings. It had Boston at #6 and Brooklyn at #12 in the East. Also had Dallas at #9 in the West (behind Utah) which is very possible if they lose Ellis, Chandler, Rondo and gain no big FA's.

I did the whole draft order (less any trades or wacky ping pong ball movement) and it gave us #8 (BKN), #11 or #12 (DAL), and #14 (BOS). Not bad, especially if we package them with someone to move up to top 5 or even 3.

After this year, I'm not counting on trading up, ever again, even with 8,11,14. It has become clear that any draft pick outside of the top-10 has minimal value.*

Mike

*Okay, not guaranteed to be true, but my new policy from here on out is to assume that we're stuck with what we've got. Nothing like beating expectations to make the fans happy.

3 or 4 picks in the top 20 as opposed to one at 16 and one at 28 makes it MUCH easier to move up. I totally get what your saying, after this year it's hard to even go there, but if your trying to make that Nets pick go from say #9 to #5, having #14 and #18 plus all the seconds make that entirely possible.

A wild card is the Joe Johnson trade rumors. If they can manage to dump him, what do you guys think they can get in return and will that make them better or worse this year?

I think they're not getting a whole lot for JJ, and in the short term would make then worse. I can't really see them making the playoffs again.

[PhoSita]

I don't get the positivity surrounding how well the Nets will perform nor the negativity regarding how other teams in the East won't improve via the draft and returning players that some people have mentioned here.

Because we now have multiple years of evidence of this Nets team finding a way to finish close to the middle despite being utterly mediocre (and even dealing with significant injuries).  We also have multiple years of the East being really shallow and pathetic despite raised pre-season expectations.

[Big333223]

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/13167568/brooklyn-nets-memphis-grizzlies-recently-talked-joe-johnson-trade

Nets are trying to trade Johnson for cap relief. If the Nets are getting pressure from ownership to shed salary strictly for financial reasons (not for strategic reasons), this could be a sign that the upcoming year for Brooklyn is going to be bad. Last year, Hollins had his guys motivated but how long will it last?

It'll all depend on the bottom of the East. Every year we say "look at how much these teams have improved" and every year I'm disappointed with how bad the bottom of the East is. The Celtics need those teams to get better to give Brooklyn trouble and also to put this young Celtics team through some real competition and force them to sink or swim. I love going to the playoffs but its meaningless if the position is the fool's gold of playing in a lesser league.

[chambers]

I think our only real chance of this pick being top 10 is if Lopez goes down hard.

When Lopez came back and they signed up Hollins (Hollins is coach now I think?) They played really well.
With a healthy line up of

Williams
Johnson
bogdanovic
Young
Lopez

with
Hollis Jefferson
Blake
Jack

And the rest of their bench, they'll be okay.
they could sign Brandon Bass and other small salary back up big men.

To me the pick is likely the same place this year or probably not as good unless Lopez goes down for 50% of the season or more.

[oldtype]

Brooklyn is an extremely volatile team, which makes this an extremely volatile asset. I can understand why nobody would want to trade for it right now: it's basically a scratch-off lotto ticket, and a GM could lose his job for betting on the wrong outcome.

We should get a better idea of how much the 2016 pick is worth as the season progresses, at which point I expect its value to crystalize. If Brooklyn looks like they're in free-fall, this could be the asset that gets us over the hump for a big trade. If (more likely) it looks like a pick in the early teens, it's still a solid piece.

It's a hard asset to trade right now, but it's got a lot of "upside" so to speak.

[mef730]

I think our only real chance of this pick being top 10 is if Lopez goes down hard.

When Lopez came back and they signed up Hollins (Hollins is coach now I think?) They played really well.
With a healthy line up of

Williams
Johnson
bogdanovic
Young
Lopez

with
Jerian Grant
Blake
Jack

And the rest of their bench, they'll be okay.
they could sign Brandon Bass and other small salary back up big men.

To me the pick is likely the same place this year or probably not as good unless Lopez goes down for 50% of the season or more.

Jerian Grant? Hey, no fair, the Knicks and the Nets don't get to combine teams!

I think Lopez resigns, but would be thrilled if he didn't. Would love a JJ trade that made them worse in the short run, even if it did give them some room to restock in 2016 FA.

Mike