Estimating the value of the Brooklyn 2016 first rounder

[Rida]

The East is about to get a lot better, last year the Nets were 38-44 and ended up with the 8 seed.

This year they have Young and Lopez as their marquee free agents, neither are a lock to re-sign

They have Deron and JJ earning over 20 million next year and neither can stay healthy, so essentially they are hamstrung by the cap, so will have to massively overpay Lopez and Young to keep them.

Look at the teams that finished below the Nets in the standings last season.

Pacers
Jazz
Heat
Hornets
Pistons
Nuggets
Kings
Magic
Lakers
76ers
Knicks
T'Wolves

This year Miami and Indiana with Bosh, Wade and George will improve.

Charlotte and Detroit will be better, regardless of their FA situation and will have a better record than them, whereas last year they were behind them in the standings.

In the East I only see Philly and New York being strong favourites to be worse than the Nets this year. Keep in mind that both have max money to throw at free agents so that could also easily change.

Orlando could easily be better than them too, in the West Utah could also be better than them with Gobert and Exum developing.

the Lakers will improve with their cap space and Russel and Randle returning, the Kings and the Nuggets could also make significant steps.

Ok the 2016 draft class is not rated as especially strong but that pick could have some unbelievable value at the trade deadline or at next years draft.

Where do you think we will end up picking?

That pick could easily end up being top 5 by my conservative estimation.

No one has a crystal ball, but where do you think their/our pick will end up being next year?

[YeezusChrist]

I can see the pick turning into a top 5 pick because they have nobody on their roster anymore.
They have Williams/ Johnson who are past their prime and injury prone. I know an article came out yesterday saying they were looking to resign both Lopez and Young but I call bs on that.

The ownership has been trying to work on some deals to sell the franchise and have said throughout the season and offseason that they are trying not to spend money next year to not pay the luxury tax penalty. Right now with the players they currently have on the roster they will be pretty close to the cap already.

If they resign Lopez and Young that would put them over the luxury cap and would have to pay the consecutive year luxury tax and that is what they are trying to avoid.

I also can't see them or any other player wanting to go to Brooklyn after they barely made the playoffs with Young, Williams, Johnson, and Lopez.
The pick is looking like it might hold a lot of value.

[Hemingway]

It could all come down to the personalities and attitudes in their locker room if they start losing. The team has no incentive to tank, but the players might not care if things get bad. Thats what we can hope for, a complete disaster in the Nets locker room.

[Rida]

It could all come down to the personalities and attitudes in their locker room if they start losing. The team has no incentive to tank, but the players might not care if things get bad. Thats what we can hope for, a complete disaster in the Nets locker room.

plus you know Deron is going to miss a minimum of 20 games, Joe Johnson misses between 10-20 games a season as well.

[tazzmaniac]

It could all come down to the personalities and attitudes in their locker room if they start losing. The team has no incentive to tank, but the players might not care if things get bad. Thats what we can hope for, a complete disaster in the Nets locker room.

plus you know Deron is going to miss a minimum of 20 games, Joe Johnson misses between 10-20 games a season as well.

Joe Johnson has played 72, 79 and 80 games during the last three regular seasons averaging over 32mpg each season.  So chances are good that he won't miss 10-20 games.   

[Who]

At the moment, I am thinking Brooklyn finishes just inside (15, 16 pick) or just outside the playoff spots (10-14) in the East. I think they are a bit more likely to make the playoffs than not.

Still though, there is serious potential for things to fall apart in Brooklyn. Brook Lopez is an injury prone player and they seem to be relying on him more than ever. So if he gets hurt again, I think that team unravels badly. And that draft pick could become really valuable (5-8 range).

[Rida]

At the moment, I am thinking Brooklyn finishes just inside (15, 16 pick) or just outside the playoff spots (10-14) in the East. I think they are a bit more likely to make the playoffs than not.

Still though, there is serious potential for things to fall apart in Brooklyn. Brook Lopez is an injury prone player and they seem to be relying on him more than ever. So if he gets hurt again, I think that team unravels badly. And that draft pick could become really valuable (5-8 range).

I think that is almost impossible that the Nets make the playoffs next year. Miami will undoubtedly be better than them, so will Indiana and most likely the Hornets, I think that it is very doubtful that the pick isn't in the lottery

[BDeCosta26]

It all depends, those picks are more valuable to Ainge than anyone else, at least until rosters are set.

Lopez and Young opting out is a good sign for us and even though Woj says the Nets are the favorites to resign them, the rules of NBA free agency kind of demand that to be true. I think Young will have his fair share of suitors, but Lopez and Milwaukee just make sense. He really liked Kidd, they need a good big man, they have money to spend and a desire to be contenders, they would bet on his health. Like Love in Cleveland, I wouldn't be surprised if he stays, it's set up so teams have an advantage in resigning their own guys, but he's never really appeared too happy there, his health is a major question mark and I'm sure he can see that the Nets will never be much more than an eighth seed for the next few years, they just don't have the resources or a way to get those resources.

Once the rosters are set for the season GM's will place a more definite value on at least the 2016 pick. If Lopez signs in Milwaukee or gets hurt early, Brooklyn is a sure fire early-mid lottery team. Say Cousins becomes available at the deadline, a package centered around Smart and the '16 pick or the whole lot of Brooklyn picks would be a legit package.

[cb8883]

If Lopez leaves I don't see how they can put a competitive team on the court. They'll be the Sixers without the future talent.

[tazzmaniac]

The East is about to get a lot better, last year the Nets were 38-44 and ended up with the 8 seed.

This year they have Young and Lopez as their marquee free agents, neither are a lock to re-sign

They have Deron and JJ earning over 20 million next year and neither can stay healthy, so essentially they are hamstrung by the cap, so will have to massively overpay Lopez and Young to keep them.

Look at the teams that finished below the Nets in the standings last season.

Pacers
Jazz
Heat
Hornets
Pistons
Nuggets
Kings
Magic
Lakers
76ers
Knicks
T'Wolves

This year Miami and Indiana with Bosh, Wade and George will improve.

Charlotte and Detroit will be better, regardless of their FA situation and will have a better record than them, whereas last year they were behind them in the standings.

In the East I only see Philly and New York being strong favourites to be worse than the Nets this year. Keep in mind that both have max money to throw at free agents so that could also easily change.

Orlando could easily be better than them too, in the West Utah could also be better than them with Gobert and Exum developing.

the Lakers will improve with their cap space and Russel and Randle returning, the Kings and the Nuggets could also make significant steps.

Ok the 2016 draft class is not rated as especially strong but that pick could have some unbelievable value at the trade deadline or at next years draft.

Where do you think we will end up picking?

That pick could easily end up being top 5 by my conservative estimation.

No one has a crystal ball, but where do you think their/our pick will end up being next year?

JJ has actually been a very healthy and durable player.  Overpaying to keep Lopez and Young doesn't hurt them.  We need both players to leave for the Nets to become significantly worse. 

I see no reason to believe the East will get a lot better.  There will be modest overall improvement at best. 

Indy gets George back but will lose West and are trying to get rid Hibbert.  They're trying to switch to a faster pace but don't have the players for it. 

Miami gets Bosh back but they could lose Dragic, Deng and Wade and Wade's health is a perpetual issue.   

Detroit will lose Monroe and are going to have to overpay to keep Jackson.  They are also burdened by Josh Smith's contract. 

Charlotte is a lousy organization.  Picking up Hawes and Batum isn't going to move the needle much. 

The Knicks are the one team that I could see having significant improvement because of free agency.  I expect modest improvement from Philly and little improvement from the Magic. 

I'm still holding out hope that Ainge will make a big move but so far we haven't improved. 

The Kings are probably the worst run franchise as shown by the Cousins mess.  Denver is looking to implode.  The Lakers need to make the Cousins trade or get a big FA signing to make a significant improvement. 

Assuming Young and Lopez resign, I expect the Nets pick to be late lottery/mid 1st (ie. just miss or just make the playoffs).   

[Future Celtics Owner]

I value the BKN pick at top 7, and has the possibility to be better. The team is another year older, they traded Plumle for RHJ and Blake, and Lopez has been severely injury prone imo it is just a matter of time before he goes down.

I think as a whole they are decaying. BKN Nets should move to Detroit because both are decrepit old decaying and generally lack leadership and the basic resources to get better.

[greece66]

Ehm, one option is missing from the poll
It says "top 10"
And then goes straight to "outside the lottery".
It should also include picks 11-14.

[Irish Stew]

If Lopez leaves, then this will be a train wreck. If he has serious or lingering injuries, also a wreck. The problem is, if Johnson, Williams, and Lopez can play in most of the games in a horrible Eastern Conference, an 8th seed is a realistic accomplishment as it's unlikely that all of the teams with better rosters will have injury-free seasons. It's a total roll of the dice. The question becomes whether even if Brooklyn falls apart, can we get a better player at the top of next year's draft than one of Philly's bigs? If we can get Noel for Smart, Brooklyn 2016 and maybe Young, that is something I would be in favor of. We could anchor our interior defense for the next ten years and, while I hate to lose the potential of those two young guards, it's a position were pretty deep at and you have to give up something valuable to get something to get back a talent like Noel.

[mef730]

I'd love for Lopez to end up elsewhere, but I just don't see that happening. They never would have traded Plumlee if they weren't certain they would keep Lopez.

I know there's been a lot of speculation around a weak 2016 draft class, but I'm not especially enamored of media outlets' ability to predict draft order. 2014's ESPN 100 for recruiting was:

Okafor (good call)
Myles Turner (early)
Cliff Alexander (undrafted)
Tyus Jones (really early)
Mudiay (good call)

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2014/order/true

Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson were also in the top 10, while D'Angelo Russell was at 13 and Towns at 9. There's plenty of time for 2016 to turn out well.

Mike

[trickybilly]

If Indiana are the only team lower than the Nets at the deadline, do you get on the phone to the Pacers and ask about what they want for Paul George....