Terry Rozier ESPN analysis

[Eddie20]

The analytics perspective

Rozier's ability to get to the basket is tantalizing, but there are plenty of red flags in his Louisville statistics. While Rozier took more than a quarter of his shots near the basket, per Hoop-Math.com, he made them at an unimpressive 55.0 percent clip. As a result, Rozier made just 44.7 percent of his 2-pointers overall. And he wasn't much better outside the arc, shooting 30.6 percent from 3-point range this season and 33.5 percent in his two-year career. The only thing keeping Rozier's true shooting percentage on the right side of .500 was his five free throw attempts per game, which he made at a healthy 77.2 percent rate.

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The question marks about Rozier's ability to score efficiently would be one thing if he were driving and dishing, but that's not really the case. He averaged just 3.4 assists per 40 minutes while splitting ballhandling responsibilities with Chris Jones before Jones' dismissal from the team. That's barely more than Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky (3.2). Rozier may be more effective in the wide-open NBA game, and he has the potential to be a capable on-ball defender with his pressure, but his stock appears too high at this point.

-- Kevin Pelton

The scouting perspective

At 6-foot-2 and armed with a nearly 6-foot-7 wingspan, Rozier is an explosive NBA-level athlete and that gives him a good starting point for his potential NBA career. But, his point guard skill level is low and must be improved on for him to excite his future employers.

First of all, his ability to make shots at the NBA level will be, at least initially, problematic. This season, he made a shade over 50 percent of his shots at the rim in the half court. (By comparison, Arizona's T.J. McConnell made 67 percent of his shots at the rim this season.)

From the perimeter, Rozier made only 40 percent of his 2-point jump shots and a below-average 31 percent from behind the arc. That inability to not keep NBA defenses honest with his outside shooting will shrink the floor for his future teammates.

In Rick Pitino's offensive system, Rozier was involved in screen-and-roll situations a lot. On 26 percent of his possessions for the Cardinals, he created a below-average .74 points per possession. Interestingly, in 43 "late clock" opportunities this season -- plays with the ball in his hands and the shot clock under five seconds -- he had an Effective Field Goal Rate of only 33.7 percent, according to hoop-math.com.

It is on the defensive end where Rozier can use his speed and athleticism to his advantage. While he will be polishing up his offensive skills early in his career, he may be able to contribute immediately on the other end of the court.

-- Fran Fraschilla

The front office perspective

Rozier played backup to Russ Smith as a freshman and got just minimal draft buzz despite a strong performance coming off the bench. However, he had a coming out party this summer at the LeBron James and Adidas Nations camps, and scouts immediately expected him to be in play as a potential late lottery to mid-first round pick.

Rozier lived up to expectations -- sort of. He had a much bigger role in the Louisville offense as a sophomore and put up terrific scoring numbers. He's strong, athletic and plays with great intensity on both ends of the floor. When he's good, he certainly looked the part of a lottery pick -- a sort of Kyle Lowry-type player.

However, his weaknesses were also exposed with more playing time. He's prone to poor shot selection, was an inconsistent 3-point shooter, and while he can pass the ball, he struggled at times to get Louisville's offense flowing. His natural instinct is to score and he often did that at the expense of his teammates. Rozier's weaknesses were on full display in Louisville's loss to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. He shot 6-for-23 from the field and many of those shots weren't good ones.

Still, players with his toughness, athleticism, speed and drive don't come along every day. If he improves his decision-making and keeps working on his jump shot, he could be a very good pro -- he has all the physical tools. Look for him to go in the 20 to 35 range.

-- Chad Ford

Measurements

HT 6' 2.25"
WT 190
Wingspan 6' 8.25"
Standing Reach 8' 2.5"
No Step Vert 33
Max Step Vert 38

Ford (after selection)-

Rozier's best comp might be a young Marcus Smart. He's built like a tank, is super tough, is a tenacious defender and is very quick. However, his jump shot needs work and he's not a pure point guard. The Celtics needed depth here, but did they simply get a smaller version of what they already have?

[Chris22]

Makes no sense whatsoever unless we have a trade in mind.

[cltc5]

Yea we know.  Garbage

[hwangjini_1]

after reading up on rozier, he looks better than i thought. the celtics liked him for sure...

tweeter...
Grousbeck on 16th pick: "We've targeted Rozier. He worked out for us twice. He's an athletic freak, a skilled two-way player." #CelticsDraft
8:29 PM - 25 Jun 2015

i can see why they took him, chicago was going to grab him i heard. BUT THIS MAKES NO ****ING SENSE UNLESS THEY ARE PLANNING TO TRADE SOMEONE FROM AB, SMART, OR ROZIER.

but what the heck, it is the 16th pick, no one was going to swoop in and save this team.

[SHAQATTACK]

Gousebeck

Can stick it

[hwangjini_1]

and this tweet. very interesting...

Alex Kennedy ?@AlexKennedyNBA
Many of the top point guard prospects in the draft refused to work out against Terry Rozier, which is partially why he didn't get more hype.
8:27 PM - 25 Jun 2015

[mqtcelticsfan]

I am willing to keep an open mind on him as a valuable player, but man we need to move around some assets for this to fit.

[timpiker]

Oh great.  Another guard who can't shoot.  Oh, but he hustles a lot.  Thank f'n God for that.  This is the most disappointed I've ever been with Danny.

[Rosco917]

The has to be a trade, because another undersized PG makes no sense. What does this mean for Smart, IT, even Pressey. There has to be a trade coming...please!

[Rosco917]

It means Smart is not the PG of the  future. So, I guess your saying he's a 2? So if Smart has to get minutes at 2...where does Bradley fit in? Not to mention James Young at 2. Where are IT's minutes coming from?

Somebody is odd man out.

[Amir]

It means Smart is not the PG of the  future. So, I guess your saying he's a 2? So if Smart has to get minutes at 2...where does Bradley fit in? Not to mention James Young at 2. Where are IT's minutes coming from?

Somebody is odd man out.

Terry can guard the 2 and is better fit for the 2. His reach extends over any height issues.

[dreamgreen]

PG? You can't be a PG and average 3 assists per game, shoot 41% and 30% from three. 

[JOMVP]

Everyone is complaining, haven't seen the kid play yet - its wait and see right now. We needed size, obviously, but the Warriors just won an NBA championship while playing Draymond Green at the Center for an impressive amount of minutes. Its a small man's league people. You know what we needed more? Someone who can get to the rim. Looks like this kid can get to the rim, so we'll see.

[tarheelsxxiii]

There needs to be a trade in place for it to make any sense to draft a shorter Marcus Smart at 16.

Nearly crapped myself after reading rumors re: 9 with Winslow still on the board. What an awful draft. Hunter not bad value at 28, though.

[tstorey_97]

On the bright side - looks like an above average player and potential value at 16th....(remember, this was the 16th freaking pick)...and of course, he's bigger than the 3rd string... no, wait a minute, fourth string point guard, Phil Pressey, who might be packing up his locker just about now.


Down side..."Brad? This is Danny...remember that 5 guard offense we talked about last year?"

More downside - How many guards can a team have on the roster? Is the NBA going to step in here? Aren't there regulations for a roster's average height? Is Danny trying to get all the other GM's to start over valuing guards? If Danny has all the guards in the NBA, will that drive up their value enough to get a center?