Stanley Johnson projects to be 3rd best player in draft according to ESPN SPM

[rondohondo]

Statistical plus/minus is an estimate of a player?s contribution to his team?s point differential per 100 possessions. An SPM of zero is considered league average (weighted for minutes), and replacement level players have an SPM of about -2.

The projection model calculated the likelihood of a player to fall into one of four categories: Superstar, Starter, Role Player and Bust. There are generally one superstar, 10 starters and 25 role players who come out of each draft class.

Top college players in 2015 NBA draft class by projected SPMPlayer   
                            Position  Projected SPM   Superstar         Starter   Role Player   Bust
Karl-Anthony Towns   C            1.03              13.5%         42.7%   16.3%          27.5%
Justise Winslow   SF            0.88                8.4%         51.1%   17.7%          22.9%
Stanley Johnson   SF            0.68                6.8%          42.4%   27.9%          23.0%
Jahlil Okafor            C            0.52                5.9%          41.0%   23.6%          29.6%
D`Angelo Russell   PG            0.51               15.2%          34.2%     9.7%          40.9%

When projecting a player?s SPM, Year 2 through Year 5 were selected because first-round picks are under control of the team that drafted them for four years with the potential of the player taking a fifth-year qualifying offer. Rookie seasons are excluded; they often are outliers, which can be attributed to a player being drafted by a bad team, needing time to develop, etc.

To project SPM, box-score statistics (adjusted for the level of competition faced and pace of game), Chad Ford?s Top 100 Prospect Rankings and player information (age, height, weight, class year, position) were the main inputs. The model is based off this information from 2001 to 2010 to predict SPM for players in later draft classes. Steps were taken to adjust for players who played very few minutes or did not play at all in the NBA.

Scouts? ranks were the biggest factor in projecting a player?s success. Among the other findings in the projections, younger players generally achieve a higher SPM, team-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies matter, and having higher adjusted rate stats (assist percentage, rebound percentage, effective field goal percentage) in college is good for a player?s projection (unadjusted counting stats such as points are not as important).

Thought this article was pretty interesting since the other 4 guys on this list are all top 5 in most mock drafts.

I really hope Danny can get up to 8 or 9 and Johnson is still there . I think he is being really overlooked. He is probably in the top 3 2-way players in the draft .

[max215]

Winslow, Hezonja, and Johnson are all very intriguing wing prospects. I'd be thrilled with any of them.

[BitterJim]

Stanley Johnson projects to be 3rd best player in draft according to ESPN SPM

Well, not really.  This analysis excluded international players, and with two (Porzingis and Hezonja) projected to go early in the draft, that's pretty significant.  Additionally, SJ was mainly ranked so high because he's a pretty safe pick, with a low chance of being a superstar but a high chance that he's a starter or rotation player

[Who]

I don't understand why he has slipped so much in the mocks over the last couple of months. We didn't find out anything about him that we didn't already know so why is he falling?

Makes no sense to me.

[Rondo9]

I don't understand why he has slipped so much in the mocks over the last couple of months. We didn't find out anything about him that we didn't already know so why is he falling?

Makes no sense to me.

I know he Justice Winslow are pretty much the same player, yet Winslow is a top 5 pick?

[JHTruth]

I don't understand why he has slipped so much in the mocks over the last couple of months. We didn't find out anything about him that we didn't already know so why is he falling?

Makes no sense to me.

I know he Justice Winslow are pretty much the same player, yet Winslow is a top 5 pick?

I think SJ is not near as good as Winslow and he's a wing. Wings are the easiest players to get by a mile. In a draft with three top 5 bigs, and two elite PG's, he's not going to be that high. I think Winslow will be 6 at best

[Evantime34]

I think there is little to separate Johnson from the other 3's in the lottery. I think if he is available in the 8-12 range he is a great target for a trade up.

[chambers]

I don't understand why he has slipped so much in the mocks over the last couple of months. We didn't find out anything about him that we didn't already know so why is he falling?

Makes no sense to me.

I know he Justice Winslow are pretty much the same player, yet Winslow is a top 5 pick?

Winslow is a much better player at this point. Winslow has All Star potential in most scouts eyes. Johnson doesn't.