C's Unlikely to be Able to Trade into Lottery

[jmen788]

Source: hoopsrumors.com

"The Celtics face long odds in their quest to deal for a lottery pick, writes A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com. Boston is expected to continue its effort right through draft night, but trading into the top 14 is much tougher than fans realize. Blakely points out that draft-night trades to enter lottery territory have only happened five times in the last decade. “It takes two to trade,” said Austin Ainge, the Celtics’ director of player personnel. “We can’t force that on anyone else, nor is that always smart. The [New England] Patriots have done very well moving back.” If the Celtics are able to swing a deal, Blakely writes that they would be interested in frontcourt help, possibly Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein or Texas’ Myles Turner."

There’s more news from the Eastern Conference:

    The Celtics could pull off a surprise and draft a point guard with one of their two first-round picks despite selecting Marcus Smart last June, Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald speculates. They could consider Jerian Grant, Delon Wright or Tyus Jones with the No. 16 overall pick, while Terry Rozier might be an option at No. 28, Murphy adds."


I hope we can somehow trade into the lottery, but it doesn't look as easy as we may have anticipated-- not because we don't have the assets, but because other teams just don't tend to give up lottery picks. What should we do if we can't trade up?

[Who]

I think they have a chance of trading into the 11-14 range. Maybe Charlotte at 9 who don't seem to be too high on any of the guys available to them.

I don't think they'll be able to get any higher than that. The price will be too high. This draft has a lot of talent at the top end of the draft.

[clover]

Sounds like Danny's given A. Sherrod one of his mid-negotiations, "I don't think we can make this deal work", unofficial press releases.

Also time to moderate fan expectations for Thursday.

[saltlover]

That's fine and all, but just going through the last 10 drafts, there have been 11 instances of teams moving into the lottery on draft night, and not 5.  #Blakelyed

[krumeto]

I will not be unhappy with trading up from 28 and staying pat at 16.

There is a nice group of players, slotted to go in the 18-25 range I like a lot - Harrell, Anderson, RJ Hunter, RHJ, Vaughn, Looney. Those seem to me significantly better than most of the options left at 28.

So, 28+33 for somebody in the 22-24 range?

That would give us:
 - one of Portis, Lyles, Oubre, etc...
 - one of the 18-25 group above
 - 45 - somebody

I'd be a happy fan with this draft.

[mef730]

That's fine and all, but just going through the last 10 drafts, there have been 11 instances of teams moving into the lottery on draft night, and not 5.  #Blakelyed

TP

I used this site: http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Years/index.htm
to take a look at previous year draft trades. There were definitely more than five, although I got lost in the details after the first few years. Of course, that site also has Garnett going to the Celtics in 2009, so I'm not sure how to value its info.

Having said that, I think Blakely is right. Based on my, at best, rudimentary knowledge of draft prospects, it appears to me that this draft is heavier in value in the back half than it is in the front, meaning the price to trade up will be high. I'd say "out" is better than "up" in this draft, but we don't need any more draft picks. I have no interest in mortgaging the future to get a potential star this year, since I'm not sure we'll get there. Ainge strikes me as quite "Belichickian" in his approach to value.

Mike

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Is there a guy here in the 6-10 range worth trading a 1st round pick in the future?


If the Celtics want to move up, and they think there's a kid who will be worth giving one of our future draft picks, then they should. This is the reason we accumulated these assets to begin with. If just having the two first inst enough to move up, use the future ones.

[Rondo2287]

The Celtics without a doubt have the ammunition to move up.  Whether a deal makes sense for them is another question. 

[krumeto]

Is there a guy here in the 6-10 range worth trading a 1st round pick in the future?


If the Celtics want to move up, and they think there's a kid who will be worth giving one of our future draft picks, then they should. This is the reason we accumulated these assets to begin with. If just having the two first inst enough to move up, use the future ones.

I'd absolutely use Philly's 2016 2nd or even Dallas's first rounder in a package for 8 or 9.

We will most probably have 3 1st rounders and 4 2nd rounders next year. We HAVE to trade some of those either this or next year.

[GzUP617]

  These reporters need to let us dream until draft night. Draft is 3 days away. If I feel like being optimistic till then than let me be.

[oldutican]

You dreamers needed to be told this? A lot of people here think that other teams areas eager for the Celts to succeed as they are.

[pearljammer10]

That's fine and all, but just going through the last 10 drafts, there have been 11 instances of teams moving into the lottery on draft night, and not 5.  #Blakelyed

Double TP. My thoughts exactly as I was reading this report. God I hate Blakely.

I'm more excited for this draft than I've been in a long time and hope we can get in the top ten because of it. WCS, Porzingas, Hezonja, Turner, Winslow, Johnson... All these guys will probably go between 3 and 12 and I could see anyone of them helping out the Celts big time. Just being able to put us in position to get one of them would be nice.

[slamtheking]

Blakely = uninformed.  I don't take anything he says seriously.

I'm sure trading up is difficult but not impossible.  the question is whether the cost is worth it

[Global Celtic]

Is A. Sherrod Blakely the worst beat writer covering the Celtics?

[PaulAllen]

90% of Blakely's beat writing is sitting at Logan airport and waiting for players to come off the terminal then writing a new rumor.