The draft is less then a week away and this draft seems impossible to realistically mock. I have followed this draft class closer then any draft I have ever followed and at this point there are very few facts worth betting on.
1. Towns looks like the #1 pick, I would say 85% chance he goes #1
2. Payne will go in the lottery
3. Russell will be a top 4 pick
After that the board seems wide open. Here is my top 10 ill add rest of first round later.
#1 T-Wolves, Towns: as close to a sure thing as any pick in this draft
#2 Lakers, Okafor: I think they like the idea of drafting Russell but fear the repercussions of passing up on Okafor. I really wouldn't be shocked if they surprise everyone and trade down a few spots. Maybe Vucevic + #5 for #2 then draft Mudiay.
#3 76ers, Russell: logic says take Russell but this is the 76ers so who really knows. Embiid's Injury seems like a push towards Prozingis. In the end I think they still take Russell.
#4 Knicks, Prozingis: I think they take him for his long term appeal but they would rather have a short term fit. I expect Phil Jackson really tries to shake up his roster with a deal at this pick. I know people want to dream of the Cs getting this pick for their stock pile of picks but I think the trade will likely involve a team like Denver who has players NY might want. My Dark horses Toronto and Indy. Could Hibbert + George Hill + #11 land the #4? What about Lowry + Ross+ #20 for #4?
#5 Magic, Winslow: they will be left with a lot of wait and see with the #4 pick. I think Mudiay is the BPA but he in no way fits in Orlando this opens up another trade possibility. If no trade they pick will likely come down to Winslow, WCS or Herzonja. I went with Winslow due to his fit with what they have done in recent drafts.
#6 Kings, Mudiay: he seems like a great fit and the logical pick. However two reports that I have read link this team to other prospects. Cousins reportedly wants WCS and Divac reportedly wants Herzonja.
#7 Nuggets, Herzonja: The Nuggets seem to be poised for a blow up rebuild and reportedly Galinari and Nurkic are the foundation pieces they want to keep. This could lead to some major draft day movement. Either moving up or gaining extra picks. If they stay at 7 Herzonja seems like a great fit as he will get PT right away and should flourish in the role as a 2nd or 3rd scoring option.
#8 Pistons, S Johnson: In a surprise workout the Pistons brought in Winslow on the 16th. This can mean the pistons and his agent think he may fall but it could also mean a trade up is a possibility. This makes me wonder if Winslow is available at #6 if the Pistons use Jennings to move up for him? Either way I think the target is SF in this draft. If not Winslow Johnson seems like the next likely option. Dekker could also be the dark horse. WCS is BPA but a terrible fit with Drummond.
#9 Bobcats, Booker: as everyone on this board knows the Bobcats are rumored to be interested in trading down for RJ Hunter. If this doesn't happen Booker seems like the logical fit. WCS is still the BPA but with so many bigs on the roster he really doesn't seem to fit.
#10 Heat, Dekker: WCS may also be an option here but if they think they have struck gold in Whiteside then WCS becomes redundant. I was originally going to go with Turner but question if Riley is willing to draft a long term project. I think he goes with a play who they feel can contribute next season and give them wing depth.
#11 Pacers, WCS: this puts them in an interesting spot I think they also really like Payne but if WCS falls they cant pass on him. I think Kaminsky and Turner are also in play here if WCS goes earlier.
#12 Jazz, Turner: my gut screams Kaminsky as I think he would be a perfect 3rd big on this team. However as of today it doesn't appear he has worked out for them. This could mean nothing but I have bumped Turner who has a higher ceiling then Kaminsky to this spot. He would add shooting range and length to an already ridiculously long and young big man core.
#13 Suns, Kaminsky: he gives the Suns and NBA ready big man to plug into their rotation. he would be a nice fit at the 4 next to Len and also playing some 5 next to Morris. I think Oubre also gets a long look here
#14 OKC, Payne: whether he really has a promise at this pick or not I think he goes to OKC is still on the board. He will be a nice fit both backing up westbrook and playing along side him. With Jackson traded one of the few roster holes they have is at PG. I think Oubre has a shot here and my shocker pick would be OKC taking RHJ at this pick.
#15 Hawks, Oubre: I think they would be very happy to see him fall to them. Assuming they retain Carroll Oubre will have time to develop in their system and try to emulate Kawhi Leonard's success in a similar system. I also think Portis gets a look here as a potential backup to Horford.
#16 Cetlics, Lyles: this is a fall compared to where most mocks have him going but it could be for the best in the long term. Lyles skill set are a great fit for BS style/system and may be a better . I also think Looney and Portis get long looks here if the Cs can't trade up. The fact that Lyles is still on the board may actually help the Cs in a trade up situation.
#17 Bucks, Portis: the bucks have a very promising young core and adding a young versatile big is exactly what they need. I also think Looney is considered here but the fact that Portis is a 4/5 likely gets him the nod.
#18 Rockets, T Jones: they need help at PG and despite his young age Jones should be able to provide that off the bench sooner rather then later. I also think Grant could be an option here.
#19 Washington, Looney: Grant may make sense short term as a Wall/Beal backup but Looneys long term potential should win out. If he even makes it to 75% of his potential he will be a perfect fit will Wall, Beal, and Porter for years to come.
#20 Toronto, Harrell: this is a team that could really go in alot of directions and I think a blow up rebuild is not out of the question. If they for go a complete rebuild Harrell is a nice fit as he will give them toughness and D at the PF position. It helps that their GM had great luck in drafting Faried 22nd in 2011 and Harrell is a similar type of player though probably a better defensive prospect.
#21 Dallas, Hollis-Jefferson: Dallas has a ton of holes in its roster and can use a player at every position. RHJ is an elite defensive prospect and should be able to contribute on the defensive end from day 1. With so many issues dallas is a tough team to predict. I would also think Grant gets a look here.
#22 Bulls, Grant: if Thibs was in the draft room I would go with Justin Anderson but I think the Bulls will go with a big athletic backup for D Rose. The fact that Grant is a similar style player to Rose should help the team lower its stars work load.
#23 Blazers, Martin: I think they have a promise to him and it makes sense. If LMA leaves they will have a huge hole at PF and Martins athletic face up game may eventually develop into his replacement.
#24 Cavs, Hunter: they are rumored to want to for a vet using this pick and Heywards non-guaranteed contract. I could a team like Denver making a move on this deal. Maybe offering up Wilson Chandler? If not Hunters shooting would be a great asset for a team that needs guy who can give Lebron space. I also think Rozier could be an option as a Irving backup.
#25 Grizzlies, J Anderson: Seems like a natural fit on this roster and a nice backup/possible long term replacement for Jeff Green.
#26 Spurs, Vaughn: not your typical Spurs pick but if Vaughn last this long he is a worth while pick up for a team that is likely seeing 2/3 of its core offense retiring after this season. Euro stash picks are always a possibility with the Spurs and big men Hernangomez and Jaiteh could both be options as could SF Cedi Osman.
#27 LAL, Rozier: this is a solid pick for the Lakers. In the future he and Clarkson could share the backcourt and this late in the 1st he is a value pick. I could also see the Lakers going for a high upside PF like Wood or McCoullough here.
#28 Celtics, D Johnson: In an ideal situation I think DA would want to package this pick and #33 to move up to try to grab a wing player assuming they dont land one at #16. RHJ and J Anderson would be the logical targets. If not as a late first Johnson is a worth while gamble. Johnson may never be a starting center in the league but its not hard to see him as a 15-20 mpg valuable backup. He would likely spend the season the in D-Leauge but down the road his size in the paint and post scoring coud be a welcome addition to the Cs bench.
#29 Nets,Alexander: the nets are reportedly trying to trade Plumlee in an effort to move up from this pick. If this was to happen my guess would be a trade with Dallas but is a jump to #21 what they are looking for? If they stay at the pick a high upside pick makes alot of sense for a team that will be lacking picks in the future. Alexander has a high ceiling but a long way to go in his development.
#30 Warriors, D Wright: Wright would be a great fit if he falls to the warriors. The Warriors have an aging backup backcourt and Wright seems like a nice fit to be groomed for this role.
2nd Round
#31 T-Wolves, McCullough: with so many young high upside players to develop it seems fitting that they add a high ceiling stretch 4 to the roster.
#32 Rockets, Christmas: after adding PG depth early in the draft adding an NBA ready backup for Howard makes sense. Christmas is one of the older players in the draft which lowers his ceiling but should also make him prepared to play early in his career.
#33 Celtics, Andrew Harrison: so I unintentional have the Cs using UK as their farm system in this draft but the picks seems like a good fit. Two years ago scouts would have thought it was crazy to think Harrison would be available in the second round. At one time he was viewed as a lottery lock. His game never flourished on the the super talented UK roster but the tools are their. With his size he should make for a great utility player capable of playing PG, SG and against smaller SFs. The fact that he has a nack for getting into the paint should really help in the NBA. He seems like a better long term fit as the 4th guard over the diminutive Pressey.
to be continued
Topic: Draft less then a week away and more questions then anything (my MOCK) (Read 6846 times)