Fox Sports: Is Upshaw the Answer to Boston's Biggest Problem?

[mmmmm]

At 33, with a non guaranteed contract i think he would be perfect.

What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?

Umm.... because it would be a 2nd round pick?  And that's the only way he'd get to play in the NBA?

I suppose he could go play in Europe or China. So, yeah, technically he wouldn't _have_ to sign.

I expect that he would (in that scenario), though.

He might sign a non-guaranteed contract, but he might not.  If he refuses and went to Europe, he wouldn't be the first player to do so.

If I wanted to gamble on Upshaw, maybe I would see if he were willing to not come to training camp and instead go directly to the D-League, playing on a D-League salary and not counting as a roster spot.

Well, your question was very specifically, "What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?".

My answer is, if he wants to play in the NBA, then he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract.

And I already added the caveat that if he is willing to play internationally, he could indeed go that route.  (Though I find that unlikely because he could sign an non-guaranteed NBA contract and if he gets cut he could probably STILL get a D-League or Euro job somewhere).

Now, you are asking a different question:  "Do you think he would forgo signing even a non-guaranteed contract and instead go play for D-League money, just because I want to put him on the shelf for a while until I'm convinced he's reformed/committed/whatever?"  In other words, you have drafted him, but are not offering the non-guaranteed contract.

Well, the answer to your question would be:  Yes.  Because assuming you drafted him with a 2nd round pick, he doesn't have much choice.  Colton Iverson has been stashed Europe now for two seasons in this manner.   

In truth, the players (2nd round picks) don't actually have a lot of options if you draft and stash them.  They can't make you offer them a roster spot.  And they can't get one from another NBA team until your draft rights on them have expired - which conveniently is tied to however long they are under contract to a team outside the NBA plus one year.  Per Larry Coon's CBA FAQ:

If the player is already under contract to, or signs a contract with a non-NBA team, the team retains the player's draft rights for one year after the player's obligation to the non-NBA team ends. Essentially, the clock stops as long as the player plays pro ball outside the NBA. Players are not included in team salary during the regular season while the player is under contract with a non-NBA team.

The only route to getting lose of the team's control over them is to NOT play organized ball for a whole year.  That's not easy for most of these kids to do.

Undrafted FAs actually are better off in this regard because they can go work out for any team and try to get a walk-on contract (example:  Phil Pressey).

The net-net of this is that, if we draft him with a 2nd round pick, then yeah, he would probably let himself be stashed somewhere.  Whether that would be the best thing for his development is another question.  I doubt his agent (Bill Duffy) would be too thrilled if Danny did that.

[hwangjini_1]

At 33, with a non guaranteed contract i think he would be perfect.

What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?

Umm.... because it would be a 2nd round pick?  And that's the only way he'd get to play in the NBA?

I suppose he could go play in Europe or China. So, yeah, technically he wouldn't _have_ to sign.

I expect that he would (in that scenario), though.

He might sign a non-guaranteed contract, but he might not.  If he refuses and went to Europe, he wouldn't be the first player to do so.

If I wanted to gamble on Upshaw, maybe I would see if he were willing to not come to training camp and instead go directly to the D-League, playing on a D-League salary and not counting as a roster spot.

Well, your question was very specifically, "What makes you think he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract?".

My answer is, if he wants to play in the NBA, then he would agree to sign a non-guaranteed contract.

And I already added the caveat that if he is willing to play internationally, he could indeed go that route.  (Though I find that unlikely because he could sign an non-guaranteed NBA contract and if he gets cut he could probably STILL get a D-League or Euro job somewhere).

Now, you are asking a different question:  "Do you think he would forgo signing even a non-guaranteed contract and instead go play for D-League money, just because I want to put him on the shelf for a while until I'm convinced he's reformed/committed/whatever?"  In other words, you have drafted him, but are not offering the non-guaranteed contract.

Well, the answer to your question would be:  Yes.  Because assuming you drafted him with a 2nd round pick, he doesn't have much choice.  Colton Iverson has been stashed Europe now for two seasons in this manner.   

In truth, the players (2nd round picks) don't actually have a lot of options if you draft and stash them.  They can't make you offer them a roster spot.  And they can't get one from another NBA team until your draft rights on them have expired - which conveniently is tied to however long they are under contract to a team outside the NBA plus one year.  Per Larry Coon's CBA FAQ:

If the player is already under contract to, or signs a contract with a non-NBA team, the team retains the player's draft rights for one year after the player's obligation to the non-NBA team ends. Essentially, the clock stops as long as the player plays pro ball outside the NBA. Players are not included in team salary during the regular season while the player is under contract with a non-NBA team.

The only route to getting lose of the team's control over them is to NOT play organized ball for a whole year.  That's not easy for most of these kids to do.

Undrafted FAs actually are better off in this regard because they can go work out for any team and try to get a walk-on contract (example:  Phil Pressey).

The net-net of this is that, if we draft him with a 2nd round pick, then yeah, he would probably let himself be stashed somewhere.  Whether that would be the best thing for his development is another question.  I doubt his agent (Bill Duffy) would be too thrilled if Danny did that.

very nice post mx5. a tp for your insights and homework.

[Irish Stew]

I thought that Upshaw would be the fastest riser in the draft. Obviously, medical concerns combined with character issues that appear to be more serious than previously thought have curtailed that rise. There should be some meeting point between taking reckless risks and not rolling the dice at all. If Ainge thinks that he can be an effective rim defender and they can manage his personal issues, then using one or more of our 2nd round picks to move up from 28 to near 20 and grabbing him there seems reasonable. If he is fully confident that he will last to 28 or even 33, then we should do that.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I thought that Upshaw would be the fastest riser in the draft. Obviously, medical concerns combined with character issues that appear to be more serious than previously thought have curtailed that rise. There should be some meeting point between taking reckless risks and not rolling the dice at all. If Ainge thinks that he can be an effective rim defender and they can manage his personal issues, then using one or more of our 2nd round picks to move up from 28 to near 20 and grabbing him there seems reasonable. If he is fully confident that he will last to 28 or even 33, then we should do that.

I agree. Whatever is the best value pick, but we should not take the chance of someone grabbing him and keeping him.

[crimson_stallion]

Happy to have a shot at him with #28 or #33, assuming we don't trade those picks to move up. 

You almost NEVER get a player that late in the draft who is actually capable of producing, so those picks are exactly the type you want to use on high risk, high reward players like Upshaw.

Exactly the reason why Ainge took a gamble on Fab Melo at #20/#21/#whatever a couple of years back.  You use one pick to sign a guy who is a safe bet, then you use the second pick on a gamble player.

[I told you so]

Upshaw is more likely to be the Celts' biggest problem, should they draft him.  Aside from his numerous personal issues, he's a career 45 percent free throw shooter and had 15 assists in 41 college games.  Aside from his shot blocking ability, he lacks a feel for the game and is extremely inconsistent on defense. He strikes me as a very poor fit for the Brad Stevens system.

We might be looking at Fab Melo 2.0 here, and I doubt Danny wants to go down that road again.  Maybe a longshot pick at 33, but no higher.

[hwangjini_1]

Upshaw is more likely to be the Celts' biggest problem, should they draft him.  Aside from his numerous personal issues, he's a career 45 percent free throw shooter and had 15 assists in 41 college games.  Aside from his shot blocking ability, he lacks a feel for the game and is extremely inconsistent on defense. He strikes me as a very poor fit for the Brad Stevens system.

We might be looking at Fab Melo 2.0 here, and I doubt Danny wants to go down that road again.  Maybe a longshot pick at 33, but no higher.

good points. add to this the other points about upshaw and we can see that he does not seem to be an all star in the making.

let's assume for the sake of argument, and fun discussions, that upshaw is a boy scout and was in perfect health. where would he go in this draft?

if you focus on his overall basketball game and skills, it is clear that among all the big men he is, at best, 5th or 6th. clearly towns, okafer, stein, kaminsky are more skilled. turner? probably a higher ceiling than upshaw.

i could see upshaw as a late lottery pick, not much more. so, picking up the boy scout upshaw at 16 would be fine, but not a slam dunk.

[Celtics4ever]

Upshaw is more likely to be the Celts' biggest problem, should they draft him.  Aside from his numerous personal issues, he's a career 45 percent free throw shooter and had 15 assists in 41 college games.  Aside from his shot blocking ability, he lacks a feel for the game and is extremely inconsistent on defense. He strikes me as a very poor fit for the Brad Stevens system.

We might be looking at Fab Melo 2.0 here, and I doubt Danny wants to go down that road again.  Maybe a longshot pick at 33, but no higher.

I think your right in most aspects, TP.

But I think he was a better collegiate player than Fab Melo who showed no ability to rebound at the NCAA or even score.  Melo was a poor college player with one skill.

[oldtype]

If all you want is a dude who can block shots with some sort of upside - no matter how small the chance of realizing that upside is - why not just sign Javale McGee?

[footey]

If all you want is a dude who can block shots with some sort of upside - no matter how small the chance of realizing that upside is - why not just sign Javale McGee?

Why not do both (draft Upshaw, sign McGee), and hope that one of them works out?

[oldtype]

If all you want is a dude who can block shots with some sort of upside - no matter how small the chance of realizing that upside is - why not just sign Javale McGee?

Why not do both (draft Upshaw, sign McGee), and hope that one of them works out?

Something I'm perfectly willing to do as long as we're not burning the 16th pick, a real asset, on Upshaw, who has a significant chance of turning into Monopoly money.