Fox Sports: Is Upshaw the Answer to Boston's Biggest Problem?

[Evantime34]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

This is a quote from Chad Ford.

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

That was posted on an another thread a few weeks ago.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78248.0

One of the best draft scouts in the country, and a respectable one suggested that outside the issues, he's a lottery talent. So I think it's ridiculous that you find it ridiculous that outside of the red flags, Upshaw is not good value at #16.

How can you say outside the red flags though? If the red flags make him 75% less likely to reach his lottery potential? His addiction and off the court issues are so bad that the draft experts refuse to even mention them. They are so bad that they shocked gms.

BTW Chad Ford loves to say a player is a lottery talent if not for this one thing. It is a lot less impressive praise when you realize he says something similar about someone who doesn't get drafted in the lottery almost every year. I'll pull up a list of times he made such a statement later.

[celticsclay]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

This is a quote from Chad Ford.

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

That was posted on an another thread a few weeks ago.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78248.0

One of the best draft scouts in the country, and a respectable one suggested that outside the issues, he's a lottery talent. So I think it's ridiculous that you find it ridiculous that outside of the red flags, Upshaw is not good value at #16.

How can you say outside the red flags though? If the red flags make him 75% less likely to reach his lottery potential?

BTW Chad Ford loves to say a player is a lottery talent if not for this one thing. It is a lot less impressive praise when you realize he says something similar about someone who doesn't get drafted in the lottery almost every year. I'll pull up a list of times he made such a statement later.

Yes every year there are roughly 20 players at least that have "loterry talent" that either slip or rise depending on team's need in the lottery. Saying someone is a lottery talent is not exactly saying they are a top 3 talent or something like that. KO was a lottery talent for example (as were bradley, sullinger and zeller) it is pretty faint praise.

Edit we can also add in james young to. At least half of our roster was considered "lottery level talent"

[footey]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

While I agree that 16 is overkill, I don't accept your statement above that, were he clean and healthy, it is debateable as to taking him at 16. He would not be available in that case, would probably be taken as 3rd or 4th center (I would like him more than WCS were he healthy/clean, but respect those who prefer WCS).  In any event a top 10-12 pick.

[celticsclay]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

While I agree that 16 is overkill, I don't accept your statement above that, were he clean and healthy, it is debateable as to taking him at 16. He would not be available in that case, would probably be taken as 3rd or 4th center (I would like him more than WCS were he healthy/clean, but respect those who prefer WCS).  In any event a top 10-12 pick.

There is that old saying if my aunt had a ____ she would be my uncle. We really don't know how good he would have looked if he had played more than half a season at Washington. Or if he had been sober his whole career. Would Washington still have faded in conference play? Would he have led them to the NCAA tourney? This is not a blue chip highly recruited guy we are talking about. He was considered a high major recruit and was ranked 56th in his class. How he somehow has lept into being lottery talent from one half season at washington seems more like Chad Ford hyperbole than anything else.

http://247sports.com/Player/Robert-Upshaw-12138

[Future Celtics Owner]

queue the post of future celtics owner declaring he should be our pick at 16

ha, ha...and a tp for your ability to foresee the future. 

Am I that predictable? My ex girlfriends would probably disagree with you. But you both get a tp for knowing my tendencies better than girlfriends....which is kinda creepy now that I'm reading this lol.

[Vermont Green]

None of us know for sure what this guy's "demons" are and I have not actually ever seen him play so that is a lot of unknown but that won't stop me from having an opinion. 

I am accepting the narrative that he has lottery potential that has not yet been realized due to off court issues and that further, if the off court issues are resolved, he has a legitimate chance to realize that potential.  Like any draft pick though, there is no guarantee that he will realize his potential, even if he solves the off court issues (Oden and Embiid come to mind).  I am also assuming if doctors let him play college ball, the doctors will also clear him for the NBA.

Based on all of those assumptions, I say take the chance and pick him at #28.  One of the primary luxuries of having so many picks is that you are freer to take risks (and Upshaw certainly qualifies as a risk).  I would rather take him at 28 over 33 because I think it is advantageous to have him locked up for several years before he can become an UFA.  It will be relatively short money on the rookie scale so even if he busts, it doesn't cripple the cap flexibility much at all.

If you are so worried about his heart or personal issues that you don't even want to sign him to rookie scale contract (that starts at about $1M for pick #28) then don't bother signing him at all.

[35Lewis]

And Chad Ford has never been wrong or changed his mock drafts post draft.

I think the kid has talent and he can block shots but he has some serious holes in his game aside from his other issues.

I hate how the draft has become a game of picking the next "steal".  His play in college was decent but he couldn't even dedicate to that knowing what was on the line. 

I hope he gets it...I hope we can snag a talent like him in the second round. I just don't believe in gambling with pick 16.  If I got a $1 in my pocket and I'm hungry and thirsty, I'm gonna buy a cheese burger and drink some water...I'm not gonna buy a scratch ticket to try and win enough to buy a coke with my burger.

Last thing...it's safe for guys like Ford to say "he's a lottery talent if not for...." Because he knows nobody will take that gamble and the odds are stacked against the guy ever becoming what was expected.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

It's hard to get kicked out of 2 D-1 programs. What happens whn a knucklehead like that gets paid?

I guess we have to wait and see, won't we? The big question is, do you not trust the team enough that they won't do their jobs to make sure he doesn't stray away from the right path?

Say what anyone want's, he went to rehab and hired a life coach. He's doing something on his part, something. And even if we pick him in the 2nd round, we're paying him anyway. An extra guaranteed year won't make a difference if he chooses to throw his life away. We'll just have to do our part in keeping him in check, letting him know that there's a great career and life ahead of him if he keeps his focus.

And what's the downside of swinging for the fences and miss? Well, it's only just three years of about $1.4 - $1.5 million per year of a cap hit, NOT A LOT. There's really not a ton from that #16 spot that we know with upside as high as Upshaw. 

And what's the reward if he turns it around, keeps his life and professional career on track and pans out to his potential? I'd let you guys answer that.

You have to weigh the risk vs. the reward. You are enamored with the reward, but not giving the risk equal rating. After he got kicked off of two teams, for what is in all likelihood being an addict the risk that he gives you nothing is great.

The risk isn't just that if he doesn't work out it is a 1.5 MM cap hit, it is the 1.5 MM cap hit plus the opportunity cost of passing on someone that is far more likely to give us a rotation minutes in the future.

As to his potential, people are greatly exaggerating it. Before getting kicked off his team this year pundits were talking about him as anywhere from the 5th best center in his class. He did block a lot of shots, but he played in a system that had him stand under the hoop and wait for the ball to come to him. In the NBA with the 3 second rule, he is going to have a ton of trouble guarding on switches. The biggest knocks on him are falling asleep on defense and laziness in the pick and roll (that and a lack of offensive game). He is a good shotblocking prospect but not one that you would burn the 16th pick on with all his red flags.

Why on earth would you pick someone at 16 who according to pretty much every piece of information out there will be available at 28 and probably even at 33. I understand that we need a rim protector, but drafting him early when we could get more value by drafting him later and going with someone else at 16 is foolish. There are reporters who have mentioned that he might not even get drafted!

I am fine with him at 33, but picking him with our top pick to watch him get kicked out of the league in a year or two is not a smart move. Luckily Ainge is way too smart to make that type of mistake.

With all due respect, Evan, but I am looking at risk/reward. I never said he was low risk, but I look at him as a talent we can mold and we can keep, not a guy who would be out of the league. I really believe he's worth gambling our top pick and here's my reasons why...

1.) While it could mean we pass on a rotation guy in the future, keep in mind that we still have A TON of 1st round picks 5 years. We can afford using the #16 on Upshaw and go risk/reward as we will have many more chips to acquire that "rotation guy" in case we needed one.

2.) Part of why we can also afford gambling on Upshaw is his potential. No, I'm not exaggerating it. He is an elite shot blocker in the college level, that's an elite skills set that translates in the NBA. He has the physical tools. He's long, he has solid strength, he's mobile and he's young. Basically, he has the elite skill set, and you can mold him into a much better player because he's physically capable of developing into one. Also, as per Draftexpress.com, he's a good finisher around the paint despite being raw. So with physical tools and a good touch, he can not only develop into a great defensive player, but he can develop a solid inside game as well. I don't think anyone is exaggerating his upside at all. He's got the tools physically to be a good player, a way better player than anyone at #16 that's available except him.

3.) And as for why I'm advocating drafting him at #16, it's really because there's a BIG CHANCE he won't last at 28. Yes, I believe that despite everybody is saying he's going to drop in the second round. Why?

- Dallas pick is #21. They have no Center as Tyson Chandler is going to Free Agency.
- Blazers pick at #23. They have no Center as Robin Lopez is going to Free Agency.
- Grizzlies pick at #25. Both their Centers are going to Free Agency.
- Lakers pick at #27. While they may pick Okafor or Towns, as of now they have no Center of significance.

Those are at least THREE teams that pick before us that could make the same gamble on Upshaw as I'm advocating. Then add to it...

- Washington pick at #19. Nene and Gortat are in their 30's. Could be a project Center.
- Bulls pick at #22. Joakim Noah is 30 and is hurt most of the time. Pau is turning 36 and they have no real backup Center that can contribute.
- Spurs pick at #26, who I believe has the perfect structure for him to go, with a perfect situation as Tim Duncan is on his way out, and Tiago Splitter is 30.

That's about 6 legitimate teams that could pick him and the pick will make sense. And why would they gamble on him, you ask? Draftexpress says this...

Nevertheless, Upshaw's talent will likely lead a team to give him another opportunity, as players with his physical tools are rare and coveted commodities in today's NBA.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/#ixzz3dGOWcJfQ
http://www.draftexpress.com

I understand that most mocks have him in the second round. Let's just say I won't be surprised if he gets taken into the first. There's upside on that kid, so you take him before anyone else does. Because not only he has the potential to be a good player, he fills a desperate need for our squad. Just work on his red flags, put the staff into work. I don't think it's really that hard to make him realize that if he screws this up, his NBA career is done.

[SHAQATTACK]

Get him Danny

[Denis998]

What is so good about this guy? What makes him one of the most talked about commodities on here? The only thing going for him is blocked shots, which in turn people assume he is a rim protector. Personally, I do not feel that his game will transfer into the NBA, after all there is the 3 second rule. Notice all of the blocks he has in his "highlights"
https://youtu.be/wHUV54UoT9k
Do you think that NBA ref's will let him sit in the post such as a way that he does? The only think going for him is his height, something that most likely be negated once he is playing players of his height. Lets not even talk about all of the weaknesses listed in that video. Javale McGee looks like a saint compared to him.

[footey]

I've always said that assuming his heart is healthy enough to play, we absolutely have to take him at #16.

That size, with an elite skill and a ton of upside at #16 is very rare. I get the red flags about him being dismissed and stuff, I say so what? Work with him, have the team make sure he's on the right track. His talent level and what he could pan out to be will be well worth the investment.

He's not going to last in the 2nd round. And even if he does, what's stopping him from doing the KJ McDaniels route and just sign for one year while proving he belongs? #16 is not a big of an investment, and there's a ton of upside. Chances are there will be no one of his caliber, potential wise, on that spot, take him there before someone else does.

Respectfully, I find this really ridiculous. If he was a model student athlete with no heart issues is really highly debatable whether he would get picked 16th. He had one good half season of basketball primarily against weaker OOC opponents. I really think you are letting the mystique of the unknown make him see better than he is.

While I agree that 16 is overkill, I don't accept your statement above that, were he clean and healthy, it is debateable as to taking him at 16. He would not be available in that case, would probably be taken as 3rd or 4th center (I would like him more than WCS were he healthy/clean, but respect those who prefer WCS).  In any event a top 10-12 pick.

There is that old saying if my aunt had a ____ she would be my uncle. We really don't know how good he would have looked if he had played more than half a season at Washington. Or if he had been sober his whole career. Would Washington still have faded in conference play? Would he have led them to the NCAA tourney? This is not a blue chip highly recruited guy we are talking about. He was considered a high major recruit and was ranked 56th in his class. How he somehow has lept into being lottery talent from one half season at washington seems more like Chad Ford hyperbole than anything else.

http://247sports.com/Player/Robert-Upshaw-12138

TP for the expression! Hadn't heard that.

Look, Embiid shot up to the top of the draft in about a half season of work out of nowhere, and despite injuries, still landed no. 3.  Upshaw not the same talent level, but the small sample size and "risk" (albeit a different type of risk, being injury in Embiid case) makes the example legitimate.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

And Chad Ford has never been wrong or changed his mock drafts post draft.

I think the kid has talent and he can block shots but he has some serious holes in his game aside from his other issues.

I hate how the draft has become a game of picking the next "steal".  His play in college was decent but he couldn't even dedicate to that knowing what was on the line. 

I hope he gets it...I hope we can snag a talent like him in the second round. I just don't believe in gambling with pick 16.  If I got a $1 in my pocket and I'm hungry and thirsty, I'm gonna buy a cheese burger and drink some water...I'm not gonna buy a scratch ticket to try and win enough to buy a coke with my burger.

Last thing...it's safe for guys like Ford to say "he's a lottery talent if not for...." Because he knows nobody will take that gamble and the odds are stacked against the guy ever becoming what was expected.

See, this is bad analogy. Because we have $17 dollars on our pocket. It's absolutely the perfect time to swing for the fences here, as we have a TON more assets in case this one pans out.

My analogy is this. Yes, I am gambling my $1 to get a drink with my meal, I could lose that dollar for nothing, but guess what, tomorrow I have $2 more dollars. But here's the thing, I could win, and if I do, not only am I drinking today, but I may very well not need a drink for the next day or two, because that drink I just won, could very well make satisfied for a long time.

[mef730]

None of us know for sure what this guy's "demons" are and I have not actually ever seen him play so that is a lot of unknown but that won't stop me from having an opinion. 

Herein likes the beauty of the internet.

Previously, I advocated swinging for the fences at #28.  But with health risk a possibility now, as well, I'd have to drop him to #33.  I'll sit here waiting for Danny's call.

Mike

[Yoki_IsTheName]

What is so good about this guy? What makes him one of the most talked about commodities on here? The only thing going for him is blocked shots, which in turn people assume he is a rim protector. Personally, I do not feel that his game will transfer into the NBA, after all there is the 3 second rule. Notice all of the blocks he has in his "highlights"
https://youtu.be/wHUV54UoT9k
Do you think that NBA ref's will let him sit in the post such as a way that he does? The only think going for him is his height, something that most likely be negated once he is playing players of his height. Lets not even talk about all of the weaknesses listed in that video. Javale McGee looks like a saint compared to him.

Do you honestly think that the team who will draft him will not let him know that there's a three second rule in the NBA?

Also, the kid is LONG and MOBILE. He has the physical tools to be able to park himself just outside the shaded area, and be able to recover because he can move and he's got long arms. And it's not just blocking shots. He has the potential to be able alter shots from the inside because of those long arms, make it difficult for post players he's defending.

[celticsclay]

And Chad Ford has never been wrong or changed his mock drafts post draft.

I think the kid has talent and he can block shots but he has some serious holes in his game aside from his other issues.

I hate how the draft has become a game of picking the next "steal".  His play in college was decent but he couldn't even dedicate to that knowing what was on the line. 

I hope he gets it...I hope we can snag a talent like him in the second round. I just don't believe in gambling with pick 16.  If I got a $1 in my pocket and I'm hungry and thirsty, I'm gonna buy a cheese burger and drink some water...I'm not gonna buy a scratch ticket to try and win enough to buy a coke with my burger.

Last thing...it's safe for guys like Ford to say "he's a lottery talent if not for...." Because he knows nobody will take that gamble and the odds are stacked against the guy ever becoming what was expected.

See, this is bad analogy. Because we have $17 dollars on our pocket. It's absolutely the perfect time to swing for the fences here, as we have a TON more assets in case this one pans out.

My analogy is this. Yes, I am gambling my $1 to get a drink with my meal, I could lose that dollar for nothing, but guess what, tomorrow I have $2 more dollars. But here's the thing, I could win, and if I do, not only am I drinking today, but I may very well not need a drink for the next day or two, because that drink I just won, could very well make satisfied for a long time.

This is getting really confusing. So now you have 17 dollars, you are gambling one of it, but you may not need a drink for a few days cause you won a gamble? What does this even mean? Are you betting sodas or beers here or what?

Maybe we should get away from the burger and soda analogy.