Marcus smart up for break out season?

[Hawkeye199]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2494309-breakout-watch-predicting-the-10-biggest-risers-of-the-2015-offseason/page/2

[manl_lui]

I hope so, I love watching him play, he works hard and plays hard. I wanna see if he is all talk or was he serious with the ankle injury hindering him from being as explosive

if that is true, he might have a big jump this year

[KG Living Legend]

really weak prediction. With Rondo Gone I'm looking for 12ppg 5rpg 5apg 2 spg, shooting % will still be subpar.

[Evantime34]

This is what they predicted

2015-16 Prediction: 11.0 PTS, 4.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 1.5 STL, 40.0 FG%, 34.0 3P%

I'd like to see him closer to 12.5, 5, 5, 2, 43 fg %, 36 3p%. Honestly I think what will be more relevant for his position is being a all NBA first team defender which he has the potential  to be as soon as next year.

[LGC88]

Predicting number is almost impossible because we still don't know who will be our main scorers next season.
But we all felt during the last 2 months of the season that Smart was starting to have his breakout already.
I can sense he will work hard this summer on offense with his ankle healthy now.
Hopefully it will be contagious and Young, KO & Sully will follow his attitude in the gym.
Can't wait, this summer will be too long, between FA, trades and preseason games.

[Future Celtics Owner]

He was just a rookie last year and I am looking for him to be the Marcus Smart that plows people down and gets to the rim and line more. Also his shot should be better this year.

[colincb]

The following is a comparison of the top names for the last three drafts leaving out Anthony Davis who was supposed to be and has proven to be a franchise player. As I posted elsewhere, Smart was the top rookie going into and coming out of 2014's draft on advanced stats like Box +/- and VORP stacks up as superior on such stats to most of them. Advanced stats aren't perfect, but they put a player in better perspective as a two-way player who's not just jacking up shots on a bad team and not playing much D or incapable of doing so.  Only Mirotic topped him in last year’s rookie class, but he was a pro for 6 years in the top league outside the NBA:

http://bkref.com/tiny/yUqg9
http://bkref.com/tiny/4LKnJ
http://bkref.com/tiny/gUDjw

Despite the claim that Smart is  a so-so role player by some here, the stats tell a different story. Who knows how he turns out, but I expect he’ll end up as one of the best out of his draft class based on his first year.

[BDeCosta26]

I think once it became clear this team was competing, especially post IT-trade, it became clear Smart wasn't going to be handed the keys to the offense and the focus was gonna be on key aspects of his game like the 3 point shot. He improved greatly there, people questioned the viability of his jump shot before the season and it seems clear now he'll at least have a serviceable one at the pro level. The driving to the hoop will come with more opportunity.

A lot of people, not just C's fans, are really high on this kid. His work ethic is unparalleled. This kid has been in Waltham training for next year since the season ended, getting guys in here with him and working to get better. He's the engine that drove the bus for us last year. His hustle and tenacity is infectious. Smart has the tools to become a great player, regardless of if he's a 1 or a 2. And I just won't bet against his will to be the best he can be. Idk if he'll break out this year, but he will be one of the most important factors in our next great team.

[max215]

I'm definitely of the opinion that he'll break out eventually. IMO Smart has all the tools to make in this league, he's a core piece for us.

[Bucketgetter]

I really do think that his ankle was a problem, longer than we thought it was. He had some put back dunks and blocks later in the season that reminded me of the athleticism he showed in college. Hopefully next year he comes in as an explosive athlete, to go along with his tenacious defense and improved shooting.

[tarheelsxxiii]

In what ways do you think he may break out? What aspects of his game can he develop to become a big-time player? Given his play on D, I'm guessing this growth will come on the offensive end. Interested to hear what others think (not being facetious, more intrigued).

[mahcus smaht]

In what ways do you think he may break out? What aspects of his game can he develop to become a big-time player? Given his play on D, I'm guessing this growth will come on the offensive end. Interested to hear what others think (not being facetious, more intrigued).

I think the obvious area for improvement is penetration and finishing at the rim/getting to the line. At the end of the season and moreso into the playoffs he seemed to do a much better job of this by a) showing some explosion and b) learning to use his size/ strength to Paul pierce his way to the hoop.

This combined with the fact that last year he battled some injuries and played a very limited role Have me excited for a big year.

The biggest thing for me is that last year smart often got frozen out of games by just standing in the corner on O. However whenever he was heavily involved in the game good things happened. How many times did we make a big run and you'd turn around and Smart would be in the thick of it drawing offensive fouls hitting big shots etc.

If we involve him more in the game I think this effect will continue.

[Csfan1984]

So not 18/8/8/3 on 45% 2pt, 38% 3pt? Boooo

[loco_91]

I don't think Smart needs to have a breakout season next year. He's a hardworking guy and I think we'll just see steady improvement over the next few years. I just want to see him continue to defend at an elite level, keep improving his shooting, and maybe show the ability to exploit matchups against smaller guards by bullying them for free throws.

[colincb]

In what ways do you think he may break out? What aspects of his game can he develop to become a big-time player? Given his play on D, I'm guessing this growth will come on the offensive end. Interested to hear what others think (not being facetious, more intrigued).

Growth will come on both sides of the ball. He's already a superior defender and was 11th among PG and SG combined in defensive box +/- as a rookie. More impressive was that he's tied for 23rd in defensive box +/- among rookie guards since 1973 who qualified on a minutes basis. A lot of good names on that link below. He's scores high on net box +/- and VORP too.

http://bkref.com/tiny/NaCyF

An easy area for improvement is FT shooting where he should be in the 75% range as he was in college instead of 65% last year. Taking fewer dumb shots should happen with age/experience as most players shooting improves. Smart also shot 9% worse from 0-3 feet than he did in his last year in college. It does not appear that being blocked at the rim in the NBA was the problem based on the calculation I did. Assuming the same blocked rate as in college applied to the actual shot distribution Smart had last year at the rim, from 2-point range, and 3-point ranges, Smart should have had more shots blocked last year.

IOW, it does not appear that NBA defensive athleticism was shutting him down. However, a leg/foot injury might well explain the difference. Supporting that thought Smart went to the rim at half the rate last year compared to his last year in college and drew fouls at a much lower rate. He had 8.1 FT attempts per game as a soph at OK State vs 1.9 per game last year. IOW about 4+ times as much in college.

Overall, I expect improvement in running the Pick-N-Roll going forward and in driving to the basket, which might well bring his total shooting % from a sub-par 49% last season into a very respectable 55% range as he achieved as a sophomore in college. That's a bigger than normal improvement over an NBA career, but I think there's a decent chance that he exceeds the normal improvement by a shot distribution that's more in line with what he did in college.