"Speculation" Monroe to sign with either Boston or NY (update on 1st page)

[crimson_stallion]

Monroe is a big, skilled player who is legitimately difficult to handle inside, and who rarely gets hurt.

It's hilarious to me that anybody questions the idea of the Celtics signing him.  If they can find a way to acquire a player like that -- regardless of fit -- by all means they should do so.  He'd immediately be the clear-cut best player on the team.

It amazes me that people are arguing that Zeller is just as good.  Monroe is one of the top 4 post players in transition, passes great, can dominate scoring in the post, and is a rebounding machine.

That wasn't my argument. I was saying he is not that big of an upgrade to get excited about. Not like he is Dwight Howard or Cousins. The fact that he will however be paid like it is what I find not very appealing. He is added talent without a doubt but he will be a costly one.

He's only been in the league for 5 years, so his max contract would only be $12M-13M per year.  When you consider that the new CBA is going to almost double the salary cap, a $12M-$13 contract 2 years from now becomes about the equivalent of what a $7-$8M contract is today. 

I don't consider that a high price to pay for a 25 year old 6'11" big man who gives you 17/10/3 in 32 minutes.

Look at what other big men in the NBA are being paid - even small taller (6'8"+) small forwards.  Tall guys with skill make a killing in this league. 

Monroe deserves that pay check more than 90% of bigs out there. He is not LaMarcus Aldridge / Dwight Howard good...but he's pretty darn close to being Marc Gasol / Zach Randolf good.

if the cap is 68 million next season, his max will be 17 million.

Ahh, I was going off old figures.

Still, from what I'm reading the cap projects to jump to $89M in 2016-17, $108M for 2017-18, and then drop back to $100M for 2018-19.

That means that a max contract for a player of Monroe's age/experience in those years would be $22M in 2016/17, $27M in 2017-18, and $25M in 2018-19.

When teams are paying max $27M contracts to guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid...then the $17M we're paying to Greg Monroe will seem like a bargain.

If the cap is $67M next year, then the jump to $89M in 2016-17 alone will be a $22M increase.  That increase will absorb every cent of Monroe's contract and leave $5M in change. 

Believe me, even if Monroe doesn't develop a bit and remains the exact same player he is right now - by the time we get in to the 2nd year of his contract, it's going to look like a bargain of a deal.

[crimson_stallion]

Danny obviously has to shop around.  And personally, I'd still give the edge to Aldridge as the preferred FA big out there.  At this point in time he is a better player overall than Monroe.   But one of the reason's he is better is because he is more experienced (almost 5 years older) and he will cost 18.8M per to start his contract this year.  So it's not a huge edge when you consider cost/value.  So I'll be glad if Danny can lock up either one of these guys.

I didn't read your post before I posted, and ended up saying almost the same thing you did haha

This part is an interesting point though.

If you look at his first few seasons in the league, Aldridge never really looked like a superstar until around his 6th season.

His per-36 numbers over his first 5 seasons were:

Age 21: 14.6 /8.1 / 0.6 / 50.3% FG
Age 22: 18.3 / 7.9 / 1.7 / 48.4% FG
Age 23: 17.6 / 7.3 / 1.9 / 48.4% FG
Age 24: 17.2 / 7.7 / 2.0 / 49.5% FG
Age 25: 19.8 / 7.9 / 1.9 / 50.0% FG

All good numbers, but not really superstar good.

It wasn't until his 6th season (age 26) this his scoring numbers jumped dramatically (21.5 Points Per 36) and it wasn't until his 8th season (age 28) that his rebounding also jumped (11 Rebounds Per 36) to really put him on superstar level.

Monroe only just finished his 5th season, and his per-36 scoring numbers have shown a similar pattern over his first 5 seasons:

Age 20: 12.2 / 9.7 / 1.7 / 55.1% FG
Age 21: 17.6 / 11.0 / 2.6 / 52.1% FG
Age 22: 17.4 / 10.4 / 3.8 / 48.6% FG
Age 23: 16.7 / 10.2 / 2.3 / 49.7% FG
Age 24: 18.5 / 11.9 / 2.4 / 49.6% FG

Neither guy has been known as defensive stoppers or rim protectors, so really the only key difference I see between the two is that Monroe has been a great rebounder ever since his rookie year, where as Aldridge took 8 years or so to make the jump from an average rebounder to a great one.

Monroe started in the league at a similar age to Aldridge (21 vs 20) and like Aldridge his fifth season (this season) was a bit of a breakout season for him offensively. 

Even Demarcus Cousins (who also started at a similar age) didn't really break out until his 4th season - after his first three seasons people saw him as a similar caliber player to Monroe...nobody had a clue that he was going to explode the way he did.

So how do we know that Monroe wont make the same kind of jump next year that Aldridge made in his 6th season, and that Cousins made in his 4th?  How do we know that Monroe won't have a breakout year, and come out as a 22/12 guy? 

This is especially true for Monroe because of how poorly he's been utilized in Detroit - with him moving to his natural center role full time, on a team with proper coaching and management, plus yet another year of development (possibly adding a midrange jumper to his skill set) - who knows how good this kid could become?

Plus think about it, what's the likely worst case scenario here?  He doesn't end up getting any better than he is right now, and you end up paying $17M a year for a 6'11", 250 pound, 17/10/3/50% FG guy who you can depend on to suit up for you night-in and night-out because he doesn't have a history of injuries, foul trouble or suspensions. 

You really could do a LOT worse.

It's a low risk move with the potential for a very high reward.  Opportunities like that are pretty rare, and if that chance is on the table as a GM, you take it.

[Smitty77]

Monroe is a big, skilled player who is legitimately difficult to handle inside, and who rarely gets hurt.

It's hilarious to me that anybody questions the idea of the Celtics signing him.  If they can find a way to acquire a player like that -- regardless of fit -- by all means they should do so.  He'd immediately be the clear-cut best player on the team.

It amazes me that people are arguing that Zeller is just as good.  Monroe is one of the top 4 post players in transition, passes great, can dominate scoring in the post, and is a rebounding machine.

That wasn't my argument. I was saying he is not that big of an upgrade to get excited about. Not like he is Dwight Howard or Cousins. The fact that he will however be paid like it is what I find not very appealing. He is added talent without a doubt but he will be a costly one.

You are correct.  Monroe is NO Dwight Howard.  Dwight had a 19.3 PER for the regular season and was hurt and ONLY played in half of the games and Monroe had a 21.3 PER and played in 69 games (and he likely got held out of several of those in the blatant late season tank effort!!):-))

Smitty77

[footey]

Watching his scout video, he seems like a slightly bigger/better version of Sully. But only slightly.  Just does not seem worthy of a max deal.  I doubt Ainge would offer him one. Would not be surprised if Phil Jackson did.

[LilRip]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

This.

The most attractive thing about the C's right now is that the team has a good coach and maybe Marcus Smart (if you're a believer).

This team of role players overachieved last season and with Paul George coming back from injury, a playoff berth is hardly guaranteed next season.

[jambr380]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

This.

The most attractive thing about the C's right now is that the team has a good coach and maybe Marcus Smart (if you're a believer).

This team of role players overachieved last season and with Paul George coming back from injury, a playoff berth is hardly guaranteed next season.

I just don't understand why people think the Cs are in a worse situation than the Knicks simply because the Knicks have an aging star. If we were able to acquire a guy like Monroe, I think it pretty obvious that we would trade a few of our huge stash of picks/young players for an all-star caliber player to pair with him. Add in Marcus Smart (who is a similar level prospect that the Knicks will get at #4), IT, and an organization with an identity and it really doesn't even come close.

Carmelo is good, but he is nowhere near as good as Lebron and the Cs are a much better team than the Knicks.

[hpantazo]

Well put. Also , it's not like players have ever lined up to play with Melo either in Denver or NY, more like the opposite if anything.

[CelticGuardian]

Adding him will raise our talent level, so yeah why not... the salary cap is set to rise exponentially so a max deal won't hurt us that much, especially if we look to get rid off Crash's contract... and it will make one of our other bigs a trade chip. Whether it is KO, Sully, or Zeller...  Danny will be in a position where he can net another talented player in a package deal to pair with monroe.

Meh... there are more pros than cons in my eyes. If anything we will finally have a scoring option aside from Isaiah and at only 25 years old we should definitely lock this guy up...

[Ilikesports17]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

This.

The most attractive thing about the C's right now is that the team has a good coach and maybe Marcus Smart (if you're a believer).

This team of role players overachieved last season and with Paul George coming back from injury, a playoff berth is hardly guaranteed next season.

I just don't understand why people think the Cs are in a worse situation than the Knicks simply because the Knicks have an aging star. If we were able to acquire a guy like Monroe, I think it pretty obvious that we would trade a few of our huge stash of picks/young players for an all-star caliber player to pair with him. Add in Marcus Smart (who is a similar level prospect that the Knicks will get at #4), IT, and an organization with an identity and it really doesn't even come close.

Carmelo is good, but he is nowhere near as good as Lebron and the Cs are a much better team than the Knicks.

Take away everything else.

take away the fact that its in NY take away the #4 pick, take away Brad, take away Ainge, take away the playoff appearence.

In a vacuum, If you are a FA big, who strives in pick and roll, would you rather play with IT4 or Melo.

The obvious answer is melo but i think its closer than it appears at first glance.

[chambers]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

+1

I agree that the Knicks are closer to a title than us simply because they have a guy who is a top 10 player when healthy.
They also have the cap room for 2 free agents if they can move Calderon's salary (which they wouldn't have a hard time doing).

Theoretically they could put out...
Russell
Hardaway Jr
Carmelo
Aldridge
Monroe or D Jordan

They've got at least 40 million cap room if they move Calderon.
That's 20 million each for 2 stars and then their first round picks salary of around 4-6 million depending where they pick.
Then the MLE on top.
in other words they could put out a line up that would crush us lol.

Carmelo basically took the season off but when healthy+ motivated he's at least a top 15 player, and I'd put him in my top 10.

And the cap goes up another 22 million to 89 million while Melo is 32, then another 19 million the year when Melo is 33 years old at the end of his prime.

Anyway, Knicks are far closer to being a contender than we are and it's not even close.
They are also a better attraction for top tier free agents than Boston.

[emajic1]

CB Reader for a yr, 1st time poster.  Long-time Celts fan living in Chicago, my folks are still in CT. 

I feel you have to sign Monroe, all day, if given the opportunity.  Getting a FA talent upgrade just before the cap explodes, without any assets going out, is quite the fortunate position.  All the while maintaining great flexibility.   I think another poster mentioned something similar.  Leaves us with plenty of ammo to stalk the next trade for a star that comes spontaneously available, package our middling young (PF) talent with picks for another upgrade, or when Crash's contract expires, have enough space to sign 2 additional stars. 

[csfansince60s]

CB Reader for a yr, 1st time poster.  Long-time Celts fan living in Chicago, my folks are still in CT. 

I feel you have to sign Monroe, all day, if given the opportunity.  Getting a FA talent upgrade just before the cap explodes, without any assets going out, is quite the fortunate position.  All the while maintaining great flexibility.   I think another poster mentioned something similar.  Leaves us with plenty of ammo to stalk the next trade for a star that comes spontaneously available, package our middling young (PF) talent with picks for another upgrade, or when Crash's contract expires, have enough space to sign 2 additional stars.

....out of the mouths of babes (CB newbie reference only).

Welcome to the site, and here is your first TP.

[Rondo9]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

+1

I agree that the Knicks are closer to a title than us simply because they have a guy who is a top 10 player when healthy.
They also have the cap room for 2 free agents if they can move Calderon's salary (which they wouldn't have a hard time doing).

Theoretically they could put out...
Russell
Hardaway Jr
Carmelo
Aldridge
Monroe or D Jordan

They've got at least 40 million cap room if they move Calderon.
That's 20 million each for 2 stars and then their first round picks salary of around 4-6 million depending where they pick.
Then the MLE on top.
in other words they could put out a line up that would crush us lol.

Carmelo basically took the season off but when healthy+ motivated he's at least a top 15 player, and I'd put him in my top 10.

And the cap goes up another 22 million to 89 million while Melo is 32, then another 19 million the year when Melo is 33 years old at the end of his prime.

Anyway, Knicks are far closer to being a contender than we are and it's not even close.
They are also a better attraction for top tier free agents than Boston.

Yeah they were far closer to a title that they missed the playoffs two times in a row right?

[mahcus smaht]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

+1

I agree that the Knicks are closer to a title than us simply because they have a guy who is a top 10 player when healthy.
They also have the cap room for 2 free agents if they can move Calderon's salary (which they wouldn't have a hard time doing).

Theoretically they could put out...
Russell
Hardaway Jr
Carmelo
Aldridge
Monroe or D Jordan

They've got at least 40 million cap room if they move Calderon.
That's 20 million each for 2 stars and then their first round picks salary of around 4-6 million depending where they pick.
Then the MLE on top.
in other words they could put out a line up that would crush us lol.

Carmelo basically took the season off but when healthy+ motivated he's at least a top 15 player, and I'd put him in my top 10.

And the cap goes up another 22 million to 89 million while Melo is 32, then another 19 million the year when Melo is 33 years old at the end of his prime.

Anyway, Knicks are far closer to being a contender than we are and it's not even close.
They are also a better attraction for top tier free agents than Boston.

If we trade ET KO and 16 to move up, then dump Wallace which should be easier then Calderon. We can also have 2 max guys. This means we could theoretically put out:

Smart IT4
Bradley Young
Crowder Johnson
Aldridge/Love Sullinger
Gasol/Jordan/Monroe Zeller

Best part is we still have 4 1sts next year and if Monroe is signed we can keep ET

Not quite as good a starting 5, but a far supperior bench and coach.

Basically a team that could crush the Knicks

[fairweatherfan]

And I'm forgetting, how many conference finals has Melo been in?

He's been the main man on a conference finals team one time, which is one time more than anybody on the Celtics.


Come on now.  We can be positive about our scrappy Celtics team without resorting to grandiose hyperbole.  They made the playoffs.  Good for them.  There's a good chance the entire roster will be turned over before they contend for a title again.

Okay, but what has he done since then? I agree that the Celtics roster may radically different, but the point is just because the Knicks have Melo, doesn't really make them a much more attractive team than ragtag of role players who won 40 games this year.

And I'm saying having that star in place, even if that one guy isn't enough to guarantee that a team is a contender, automatically makes a team like the Knicks more appealing to a free agent that has title aspirations than a team like the Celtics.

Now, if Monroe isn't looking to compete for titles right away, but wants a situation where he can grow and become one of the leaders of a young team on an upward trajectory, it's a different story. 

If we're talking winning in the short term, though, the team with the star already on board, not to mention a top pick in this year's draft, wins out every time over the roster full of plucky journeymen.

+1

I agree that the Knicks are closer to a title than us simply because they have a guy who is a top 10 player when healthy.
They also have the cap room for 2 free agents if they can move Calderon's salary (which they wouldn't have a hard time doing).

Theoretically they could put out...
Russell
Hardaway Jr
Carmelo
Aldridge
Monroe or D Jordan

They've got at least 40 million cap room if they move Calderon.
That's 20 million each for 2 stars and then their first round picks salary of around 4-6 million depending where they pick.
Then the MLE on top.
in other words they could put out a line up that would crush us lol.

Carmelo basically took the season off but when healthy+ motivated he's at least a top 15 player, and I'd put him in my top 10.

And the cap goes up another 22 million to 89 million while Melo is 32, then another 19 million the year when Melo is 33 years old at the end of his prime.

Anyway, Knicks are far closer to being a contender than we are and it's not even close.
They are also a better attraction for top tier free agents than Boston.

Yeah they were far closer to a title that they missed the playoffs two times in a row right?

And Cleveland missed the playoffs 4 times in a row.  Rosters are so fluid now with shorter deals, a growing cap, and a lot of teams willing to make deals for strictly financial reasons that turning a team around isn't nearly as hard as it used to be.  Provided you have things like an elite player, a top draft pick, tons of cap space, and a desirable location.  We've got 1 of those things, they have all 4.

Now I'm certainly not putting it past the Knicks to screw all that up and wind up behind the 8 ball again, but they've got a much better opportunity to put an excellent team together this year than we do.