Mudiay falls to 6 in latest cnnsi mock

[Boris Badenov]

Last night I put together a spreadsheet of many drafts, and this draft stood out as being pretty different than the others (Basketball insiders, Draft Express, Chad ford, etc.)

Mudiay isn't really falling because he's in contention at 3 where Russell is supposedly their choice, 4 because the Knicks are one of the teams like the Cs that nobody knows what they're going to do, and 6 SAC.  ORL at 5 has Payton, and Kyler who's tied in there says they're not drafting guards. Mudiay has just started working out after unwisely skipping the Combine and supposedly is very impressive so we'll see whether he can get back above Russell with Philly.

Otherwise, no one else has WCS, Dekker, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson going that low or RJ Hunter getting into the teens and Alexander and Mickey getting into the first round. Possible that it plays out that way, but I'd trust DX and Ford over Mannix when it comes to showing up at workouts and talking to NBA scouts/execs. This looks more like winging it a bit.

I do think WCS could fall because there are a lot of teams that need specific needs and don't need a center (DET, CHA, MIA), several teams that could go in any direction, and SAC and DEN which have a mess in the front offices. Booker OTOH could go as high as 8 or 9 as DET and CHA need outside shooting and this is not a strong draft for that.

Names popular for BOS at 16 are Portis, Lyles, and Dekker. No one else had Looney there. However, many think we going to move up. 

There were 24 players who were first rounders in every mock. So when we get to #28 we're out of luck unless there's a slider or we move up. We show up with Christian Wood or Chris McCullough in several drafts each, both who are projects with big upside. There are also any number of foreign players who start coming into play in the late first round and mocks had us taking Vezenkov, Gauditus, and De Paula there or in the early second round.

Lastly, I tried putting together trading partners just using this year's picks  and future second rounders only (no future firsts, no players) using the pick valuation model from Tankathon/82games. Practically we can't get into the top 5, SAC and DEN at 6&7 seem unlikely because they need to both make a splash giving the nonsense going on in their front offices and DET and CHA really need shooters which we don't have and are not going to be available at 16. 

So I ended up with MIA and IND as being viable and achievable. MIA has starters though they could upgrade PF. Their bench is a big problem and we could give them a lot of picks to help that for the 10th. IND needs a PG but one of Payne or Grant would be available at 16 and they'd get other picks like 28 to get developmental bigs to replace Hibbert and West going forward. Both deals appear to be doable without doing much more than combining excess picks along with this year's firsts. I'd still like to keep the 33rd though to take a flyer on the best stash foreign player available and that would be doable in putting together trades like these. I know someone will come forth with the CHI-DEN trade from last year, but last year's draft was a little deeper in the second tier and CHI overpaid.

This is a really nice post, TP.

I'm in agreement that MIA is the natural partner, because they have a high pick but need supporting cast-type players.

Bradley seems like the ideal fit to me - he can play off the ball with either Goran Dragic or Wade, and defend the other team's best backcourt scorer.

I also think KO might be a nice addition for offense off the bench, playing alongside Anderson or Whiteside.

Here are some possible deals:

KO and #28 for Z. Dragic and #10
Bradley and #28 for Haslem, Chalmers and #10

Danny would obviously have to believe that the guy available at #10 would be pretty good to make either of these deals, but I think they have appeal for Miami as they offer proven NBA rotation play, and a chance to pick up another prospect at #28.

[TA9]

Looney is the last thing we need. I can't deal with another under sized power forward...
Interesting how much Oubre has fallen as SI projects him at #20, and I don't believe that Rondae Hollis Jefferson will fall all the way to #27 that's too low for him. And i doubt that Cliff Alexander will be drafted that high

We need upside, first and foremost.  He's got it.  Might be a top 10 talent at #16, if that's where the Celtics stay.

A lot of players in this draft in this draft has upside (Kelly Oubre for an example).
Sure Looney has a ton of upside but he could very well be a bust too (Which is what I think will be the outcome). I think that Looney is too big of a risk to be picked that early. But that's only my opinion.

If he had a high floor and a high ceiling he wouldn't be available to us at 16.

These are the guys we're  going to have to look at if we keep our picks. Gonna have to take some risks.

True, we need to take a risk at #16, but I wouldn't run that risk by picking Looney. The thing about this guy is that he is too short and weak to play PF, whereas he is too slow to play SF. The tweener thing concern me as I can't see where he is going to play in the NBA (hence that I think that he will be a bust).

I would be perfectly fine if we picked a guy with a lot of upside if there wasn't doubts about where he was going to play on the court.

[slamtheking]

Looney is the last thing we need. I can't deal with another under sized power forward...
Interesting how much Oubre has fallen as SI projects him at #20, and I don't believe that Rondae Hollis Jefferson will fall all the way to #27 that's too low for him. And i doubt that Cliff Alexander will be drafted that high

We need upside, first and foremost.  He's got it.  Might be a top 10 talent at #16, if that's where the Celtics stay.

Wasn't that the reasoning behind Danny drafting Fab?  I'd rather take someone who's more likely to be a productive player than swing and miss on someone with a lot of questions surrounding them. 

Sure, I guess you could say it was the reasoning there.  But Fab had a very high likelihood of not working out and a very low likelihood of becoming something.

I don't think you can say the same thing with Looney.

Going for the "safe" pick is what motivates taking somebody like Olynyk instead of going for a prospect like Giannis, Schroder, or Gobert.

to be fair, none of those 3 are stars by any measure.  they've shown glimpses they could be good players but just glimpses.  Same can be said about KO.  When he's aggressive on offense, he makes a big difference in the game --> moreso than those 3.  Defense, I'd give the nod to the other 3 but none have set themselves apart as a real stud yet (if ever).  Takes more than being athletic to be really good or Kedrick Brown would have his number hanging in the Garden rafters.

[vjcsmoke]

I don't feel that Looney offers us value at #16. 
The Celtics have the ammo to move up, and I believe they will if a player they love drops into the 8-10 range.

I don't believe the Knickerbockers will trade the #4 pick to us.  If they did, I'd be shocked because that would give us a shot at one of Mudiay, Russell, Winslow.  Any of those 3 players could turn into an offensive star in this league.