What is Home Court Worth in this Series?

[Vermont Green]

I found an interesting albeit somewhat dated article on ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12241619/home-court-advantage-decline

Some of the key take aways:

• Last playoffs, the home team went 50-39, pulling out the victory in 56.2 percent of the games. That's significantly lower than the historical playoff average that hovers around 65 percent.
  
• The home team enjoyed just a 2.8-point cushion last postseason, down from 4.0 in 2012-13 and 4.7 in 2011-12. As recently as 2007-08, the home playoff team enjoyed an 8.1-point edge and won 74.4 percent of all games.
  

So how much difference does this make in this series.  These two teams played dead even in Oakland?  Should Cle now be a 3 or 4 point favorite in these next two games?

I think because the GSW depend so much on shooting and in particularly 3-pt shooting, they are going to experience statistical swings that are probably greater than the statistical advantage of home court.  Good shooters have 5 for 23 games sometimes home and away but then bounce back.

But I also think that the average, middle of the road players will tend to play (shoot) better at home (based on observation, not stats, which I know is dangerous).  I checked home-road spits for Smith and Shumpert just for examples and both shot better at home, Shumpert shot 40% on threes home and 29% road for the season.  Smith was only a little better.

I think LeBron will be LeBron and Curry will be Curry home or away but if I was GSW, I would be concerned about the Smiths and Shumperts of the world getting hot at home.

[PhoSita]

In this series, I actually wonder if the Warriors playing at home felt the huge weight of expectations and their status as the overwhelming favorite.

I wouldn't be surprised if they look better on the road because they won't feel that same kind of pressure to perform for the home crowd.  That matters for a young team.  I understand the Warriors have done really well at home this season, but the Finals are a different matter, and the Warriors definitely looked tight in these first two games, though Cleveland deserves credit for their intensity, too.


Home court advantage certainly means more now than it once did in the Finals.  The away team getting those 3 home games in the middle of the series made it possible to steal one of the first two games and then hold serve on your own court for three straight.  Even winning 2 out of 3 at home could give you a very strong advantage.

The Warriors can and will win one in Cleveland.  The longer this series goes, the more it favors the Warrors because they have the depth to withstand this grueling battle getting drawn out.  The Cavs will run out of gas, eventually.

[The_Price_Is_Right]

Phosita - It's fairly obvious that you are 1000% against Cleveland.  We understand.  It's the same arguments in every post.  But how on earth do you think that the Warriors would feel more pressure at home than on the road?  Let alone now being tied 1-1 and knowing they HAVE to steal a game against the Cavs?  They are the OVERWHELMING favorite in this series...there is no pressure on Cleveland.  They were written off about a week before the Finals even started.

[sed522002]

I think hca is still very important, especially with the format of 2-2-1-1-1 (did they just start it back this season?). Before, the 2-3-2 format made it HUGE to steal a game from the home team.

Back to this series, I think the pressure is still on the Warriors. They're "suppose" to win especially after Kyrie going down. I don't think anyone thought they would sweep the Cavs, but a majority had the series going to 6 at the most. Now, the Warriors have to steal a game in Cleveland to get their hca back.

[blink]

In this series, I actually wonder if the Warriors playing at home felt the huge weight of expectations and their status as the overwhelming favorite.

I wouldn't be surprised if they look better on the road because they won't feel that same kind of pressure to perform for the home crowd.  That matters for a young team. 

I was actually thinking the same thing.  But it is also just adjusting to a Finals series pressure as well.  Lebron has been there before.  I think mentally it does make a difference.

[D.o.s.]

Phosita - It's fairly obvious that you are 1000% against Cleveland.  We understand.  It's the same arguments in every post.  But how on earth do you think that the Warriors would feel more pressure at home than on the road?  Let alone now being tied 1-1 and knowing they HAVE to steal a game against the Cavs?  They are the OVERWHELMING favorite in this series...there is no pressure on Cleveland.  They were written off about a week before the Finals even started.

If you don't think there is pressure on Cleveland you should probably refrain from saying anything with any pretense towards authority and/or expertise.

[PhoSita]

But how on earth do you think that the Warriors would feel more pressure at home than on the road?  Let alone now being tied 1-1 and knowing they HAVE to steal a game against the Cavs? 

They're a young team that has been vaulted to the status of all-time great much sooner than anybody anticipated.  Curry went from a top 10 player a year ago to a contender for best player in the league. 

That Oracle crowd is renowned for being absolutely crazy.  But especially with a young team that has not been here before, I think it can cut both ways.  It's like when guys go home and play in front of their family -- sometimes that's a motivator, sometimes it makes you play tight.  The Warriors have looked tight so far.

They are the OVERWHELMING favorite in this series...there is no pressure on Cleveland.  They were written off about a week before the Finals even started.

There isn't that kind of outside pressure on Cleveland.  I agree.  However, Cleveland has had to leverage every last bit of ingenuity and effort they have on what remains of their roster to reach this point.  They've played their hearts out, and only barely managed to win Game 2.

The pressure on Cleveland here is not an external one; rather, it's the pressure of having to expel so much energy just to keep pace even though their team is generally older, more banged up, and only has about 5 or 6 quality rotation players left.



If I argue vociferously in favor of Golden State, it is because Cleveland winning this series would basically be like dropping a nuclear warhead on all of the collective basketball knowledge and analysis that has ever been expended on the NBA playoffs.  Everybody who made any attempt at making some sense out of these two teams and how things would go when they meet up would be cut down below the level of the laziest casual fan in the bar who decided to pick the Cavs, "Because they've got LeBron."

I spend way too much of my life thinking about, talking about, and watching basketball to accept that.    (and I'm just vain enough to nurture some irrational part of me that believes if I just argue effectively in favor of the overwhelmingly favored team that I actually enjoy watching, it'll somehow make a difference)


Or maybe I just don't want my dad, who spends all year ignoring NBA basketball and then texts me constantly during the Finals saying things like, "THE WARRIORS ARE SOFT!"  "CAVS IN 5!"  "CURRY SUCKS!" "THIS IS A DOWN YEAR FOR THE NBA!", to be right.

[SHAQATTACK]

Not much it appears .

Bron can take his three ring circus anywhere and win........because he makes defensive plays and offensive plays pretty much at will .

Only slight signs of fatigue or the refs calls seem to,phase him in the least.

Warriors have no answer for one man who plays point guard , takes the most difficult cover assignments and switches to shut down the best  players.

He shoots threes .....and if he misses he can rebound with the 7 ft guys inside . 

So he plays 5 positions in the playoffs .  It's one on five basketball .    The other Cav players are there as simply decoys ,  and occasional wide open shots or dunks .

The only guy I see really stress Bron ...is K, Leonard ...who is built simular with leaping and speed matching Bron.

 Warriors have opened the floodgate ....giving LeBron new confidence ...( his Achilles heel)......the LeBron flood is going to wash over them like a typhoon.

[Celtics4ever]

Nothing, but I think that the Warriors will clean their clocks from here out.   I do not see it going seven but ending in six.  LeBron is going to falter as he always does, the good shooting will stop and the calls will be more balanced as the fans protest that he can grab guys and the other guys cannot.

[The_Price_Is_Right]

Oh you wouldn't be talking about Green hacking both of his arms off and it being a no call, or Green holding his shoulder down on the jump ball, and that being a no call either would you?  Oh wait, you're right.  He gets all the calls.

If anything, the Cavaliers may be set to get more calls as the series shifts to Cleveland.

[LGC88]

But how on earth do you think that the Warriors would feel more pressure at home than on the road?  Let alone now being tied 1-1 and knowing they HAVE to steal a game against the Cavs? 

They're a young team that has been vaulted to the status of all-time great much sooner than anybody anticipated.  Curry went from a top 10 player a year ago to a contender for best player in the league. 

That Oracle crowd is renowned for being absolutely crazy.  But especially with a young team that has not been here before, I think it can cut both ways.  It's like when guys go home and play in front of their family -- sometimes that's a motivator, sometimes it makes you play tight.  The Warriors have looked tight so far.

They are the OVERWHELMING favorite in this series...there is no pressure on Cleveland.  They were written off about a week before the Finals even started.

There isn't that kind of outside pressure on Cleveland.  I agree.  However, Cleveland has had to leverage every last bit of ingenuity and effort they have on what remains of their roster to reach this point.  They've played their hearts out, and only barely managed to win Game 2.

The pressure on Cleveland here is not an external one; rather, it's the pressure of having to expel so much energy just to keep pace even though their team is generally older, more banged up, and only has about 5 or 6 quality rotation players left.



If I argue vociferously in favor of Golden State, it is because Cleveland winning this series would basically be like dropping a nuclear warhead on all of the collective basketball knowledge and analysis that has ever been expended on the NBA playoffs.  Everybody who made any attempt at making some sense out of these two teams and how things would go when they meet up would be cut down below the level of the laziest casual fan in the bar who decided to pick the Cavs, "Because they've got LeBron."

I spend way too much of my life thinking about, talking about, and watching basketball to accept that.    (and I'm just vain enough to nurture some irrational part of me that believes if I just argue effectively in favor of the overwhelmingly favored team that I actually enjoy watching, it'll somehow make a difference)


Or maybe I just don't want my dad, who spends all year ignoring NBA basketball and then texts me constantly during the Finals saying things like, "THE WARRIORS ARE SOFT!"  "CAVS IN 5!"  "CURRY SUCKS!" "THIS IS A DOWN YEAR FOR THE NBA!", to be right.

TP, thank you so much for your post

[Who]

Nothing. Both of these teams have been absolutely lethal on the road.

I think it is a factor in many other series but not in this one.

[GratefulCs]

It's worth about tree fiddy

[GratefulCs]

Oh you wouldn't be talking about Green hacking both of his arms off and it being a no call, or Green holding his shoulder down on the jump ball, and that being a no call either would you?  Oh wait, you're right.  He gets all the calls.

If anything, the Cavaliers may be set to get more calls as the series shifts to Cleveland.

danger! Danger!

Independent thought alarm 




But seriously, there was grabbing and shoving all around. It's the finals. Green definitely got away with some stuff, but so does lebron