Author Topic: Getting Paul Millsap  (Read 18487 times)

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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2015, 09:24:24 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Millsap is basically the love-child of Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger. 

Millsap is a better rebounder than Bass and he is closer in offensive value to Kevin Love than he is to Jared Sullinger.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2015, 09:53:18 PM »

Offline gpap

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Another VERY intriguing free agent that's getting lost in the shuffle this summer among the other big names (Gasol, Aldridge, Love, etc) is Paul Millsap.

Another player which would be a HUGE upgrade at the PF, Millsap would be another great player to go after.

I know the Hawks will probably try to resign him, but what if we made him a max offer?

I wonder if we could outbid the Hawks then and get him to come to Boston.

He'd a be a great piece in improving for next season and getting back to the playoffs.

I do like Milsap, and wouldn't object to getting if other key free agents aren't available, but is he really a 'HUGE' upgrade at PF?  I don't think so.

I see Millsap as basically Brandon Bass with three point range and passing skills.  Bass is a pretty solid defensive PF and like Millsap he has the versatility of being able to defend mulitple positions.  Like Bass though, Millsap is only about 6'7" and is hugely undersized for the PF spot.  Like Bass he's not a shot blocker or rim protector.  Like bass he's not an Elite rebounder (though he is a good one).     

Millsap is basically the love-child of Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger.
 

There's no question that he's a tangible upgrade at PF, but I don't think he's a huge one.  If the choice was there I'd still take Aldridge, Gasol, Monroe, Jordan, Hibbert or Noel over Millsap.

As skilled as he is, I'm getting tired of watching our undersized front court get beat down by larger opposition...and I think Bass (due to his physique and ridiculous length) actually fares better against physically dominant bigs then Millsap would.

Not really the guy I'm looking for, but again if we did get him I wouldn't complain...long as we could trade out either Sully/Bass/Olynyk and bring back a guy who fills a need (because Millsap IMHO doesn't).

I'm honestly still a little iffy on giving him max contract money, because IMHO max contracts should be exclusively for game-changing players, and I don't feel he's one of those.  I don't feel adding a Millsap suddenly makes this team significantly scarier to opponents.

Millsap is a huge upgrade over both of them.

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2015, 12:50:28 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Millsap is basically the love-child of Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger. 

Millsap is a better rebounder than Bass and he is closer in offensive value to Kevin Love than he is to Jared Sullinger.

He has career average of 16.9 Points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 4 fouls and 2 turnovers per 36 minutes, which (other than the steals) are all right around where Sully's career numbers are so far.

Obviously the key advantages for Millsap are his defensive versatility and his outside shooting, both of which are significant upgrades over Sully.  On the other hand Sully has an advantage of size and strength, being a good 2 inches, 20+ pounds heavier, and with a similar overall wingspan.   

Now overall Millsap is obviously the superior player (by a significant margin) and nobody in their right mind would deny that.  But you're talking about a spending max contract money on a 30 year old 6'7" PF who gives you 16/8/3...on a rebuilding team who's biggest weakness is lack of interior size. 

Millsap isn't a dominant enough scorer to carry an offense, and he's not a good enough rim protector to anchor a defense - and at 30 years old he lacks the potential to develop either of the above.  He's an outstanding 'jack of all trades' guy (much like Iggy) who could be the ultimate glue guy on a contender, but he offers a skill set that we don't really have a need for, at a position we're already stacked three deep at, for type of money that would eat up the vast majority of our cap space for the near future. 

Throwing max contract money at such a player doesn't make a huge amount of sense for this specific team.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 01:08:28 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2015, 02:10:04 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Millsap is basically the love-child of Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger. 

Millsap is a better rebounder than Bass and he is closer in offensive value to Kevin Love than he is to Jared Sullinger.

He has career average of 16.9 Points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 4 fouls and 2 turnovers per 36 minutes, which (other than the steals) are all right around where Sully's career numbers are so far.

Obviously the key advantages for Millsap are his defensive versatility and his outside shooting, both of which are significant upgrades over Sully.  On the other hand Sully has an advantage of size and strength, being a good 2 inches, 20+ pounds heavier, and with a similar overall wingspan.   

Now overall Millsap is obviously the superior player (by a significant margin) and nobody in their right mind would deny that.  But you're talking about a spending max contract money on a 30 year old 6'7" PF who gives you 16/8/3...on a rebuilding team who's biggest weakness is lack of interior size. 

Millsap isn't a dominant enough scorer to carry an offense, and he's not a good enough rim protector to anchor a defense - and at 30 years old he lacks the potential to develop either of the above.  He's an outstanding 'jack of all trades' guy (much like Iggy) who could be the ultimate glue guy on a contender, but he offers a skill set that we don't really have a need for, at a position we're already stacked three deep at, for type of money that would eat up the vast majority of our cap space for the near future. 

Throwing max contract money at such a player doesn't make a huge amount of sense for this specific team.

There's a good chance you're completely right. But I think there's also a decent chance Millsap could be an MVP candidate. Your take is his floor, I think. A millionaire's version of Bass is his floor. A surprise late blooming Tier 1 franchise player is his max ceiling, still. He may or may not have room to grow develop his game anymore but I think there's still room on his shoulders to bear more of a burden, especially if he is a team's #1 focal point on offense and defense for the first time ever. Look at how Stevens maximizes coachable talent. Imagine what Millsap could do here for the next 3-4 years.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2015, 02:25:15 AM »

Offline Greyman

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I wouldn't be worried by his age. He seems to be a settled sort of guy who wouldn't bring any baggage and could help a young roster. He is consistent and, I think, would be getting points from some different places to other scorers on the C's.

While not the 'piece' that would make us a contender by himself, certainly a positive addition who would start and go well with other pieces.

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2015, 02:31:45 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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He has career average of 16.9 Points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 4 fouls and 2 turnovers per 36 minutes, which (other than the steals) are all right around where Sully's career numbers are so far.

17, 9, 3, 1, and 1 per 36 is right around what Celtics-era KG did, too, lol. And that's for Millsap's career, those rates. More recently, his per 36 stats are more like 19, 9, 3.5, 2, and 1.  Now let's say he actually gets the full 36 minutes, and sees a little boost in everything due to having a more prominent role here. Would 20, 10, 4, 2, and 1 not look like a max-worthy franchise player at that point? Especially if it's done efficiently, with a very good attitude, very good defense, Tommy Point work ethic.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 02:39:36 AM by Dino Pitino »
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2015, 02:45:06 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Millsap is basically the love-child of Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger. 

Millsap is a better rebounder than Bass and he is closer in offensive value to Kevin Love than he is to Jared Sullinger.

He has career average of 16.9 Points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 4 fouls and 2 turnovers per 36 minutes, which (other than the steals) are all right around where Sully's career numbers are so far.

Obviously the key advantages for Millsap are his defensive versatility and his outside shooting, both of which are significant upgrades over Sully.  On the other hand Sully has an advantage of size and strength, being a good 2 inches, 20+ pounds heavier, and with a similar overall wingspan.   

Now overall Millsap is obviously the superior player (by a significant margin) and nobody in their right mind would deny that.  But you're talking about a spending max contract money on a 30 year old 6'7" PF who gives you 16/8/3...on a rebuilding team who's biggest weakness is lack of interior size. 

Millsap isn't a dominant enough scorer to carry an offense, and he's not a good enough rim protector to anchor a defense - and at 30 years old he lacks the potential to develop either of the above.  He's an outstanding 'jack of all trades' guy (much like Iggy) who could be the ultimate glue guy on a contender, but he offers a skill set that we don't really have a need for, at a position we're already stacked three deep at, for type of money that would eat up the vast majority of our cap space for the near future. 

Throwing max contract money at such a player doesn't make a huge amount of sense for this specific team.

Using per game numbers for statistical comparisons is about as outdated as Ptolemaic cosmology.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2015, 03:26:26 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Using per game numbers for statistical comparisons is about as outdated as Ptolemaic cosmology.

Or, conversely, it's about as handy a ballpark measure as Euclidean geometry usually is. Either way, when the same one old-fashioned per-36 statline puts you in the same company as both Jared Sullinger and, say, off-peak Chris Webber or twilight-KG then the only thing to conclude is that more analysis is needed than just that statline.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2015, 09:53:12 AM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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I think hed be a nice piece i know someone (perhaps you?) said they preferd him to Aldridge and had some nice stats to back that up.

Im not sure how much he would cost, but that aside, i am hesitant to lock up a player to big money who will be solidly in the downswing of his career by the time we are contenders.

He's 30 years old, and being just 6'8" a loss of athleticism will hurt him more than it will a bigger player.

Im willing to shell out the cash to a guy who is that star player on your team however I dont see Milsapp that way. I think he is a very nice piece but at his age, Id be hesitant to lock him up long term.

I believe you are referring to me with the stats on why Millsap is a better fit than Aldridge on the Celtics.  Millsap is 100% a max player, it just is up to what situation he prefers.  I would love Millsap with Robin Lopez at the 5 as it would give Boston a top 5 defensive team, but I think he will stay in Atlanta.  If he is looking to leave, he would be my top target after Leonard.
I believe a max contract for him is 18.9 million per year as opposed to the 15.8 it would be for Harris, Monroe or Middleton

couple that with him being 30 years old already, and I am very cautious to sign him.

However, if we bring back or 1, 2, 3 and maybe move one of KO/Sully to improve draft picks, then signed Robin Lopez that would put us close to the cap with a lineup of

Smart IT4
Bradley Young
Turner Crowder
Milsapp Sullinger
Lopez Zeller

Thats not a bad team at all. Especially if KO + other picks can get you into Stanley Johnson range.

Im intrigued. The question would be do we get that other max piece and do Johnson, Smart Young develop to the level wed need before Milsapp becomes our own personal David Lee

Yes, I have been advocating signing Robin Lopez and Millsap for a while now.  Millsap fits the Celtics better as he is a better defender, passer, and has more range and speed, he will not become a David Lee.  Look at your lineup above and add our draft picks and we win the Atlantic next season.
Atlanta has a new owner. He is not going to start off letting him or Carroll walk. The Nets have nothing but money and they will give Lopez 5 years at the Max. We are stuck with looking at 2nd tier guys. Trades are the only way we will get someone. Letting Butler go in Chicago would be a PR nightmare. Middleton leaving the Bucks would hurt the new area. Leonard is not leaving the best Organization in the NBA. LaMarcus Aldridge going to Spurs is the only big move I see with any wings. Jordan is not going to leave the Clips as good as they are playing.
So you guys keep dreaming. Our Best move is to do a blockbuster with the Nuggets and Kings.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2015, 12:28:25 PM »

Offline CelticGuardian

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I think that if you put an offer on the table that a player can see himself making the most money long term, it'll be hard for them to deny it or at least not tell Danny that they will think about it. We have the capspace (roughly 23 million, 33 if we get rid of Wallace on Draft day) We can offer a player the best opportunity to cash out now as well as when the salary cap spikes up next season(tv deal)

If we offer a max 1 year + player option with restricted free agency, it could entice some guys to come here. Millsap is a money man in my opinion.

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2015, 12:42:18 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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If we offer a max 1 year + player option with restricted free agency, it could entice some guys to come here. Millsap is a money man in my opinion.

That's not how restricted free agency works.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2015, 12:52:23 PM »

Offline CelticGuardian

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If we offer a max 1 year + player option with restricted free agency, it could entice some guys to come here. Millsap is a money man in my opinion.

That's not how restricted free agency works.

d'oh! well unrestricted, or w.e. we should be able to retain someone after being a part of the club, most of the players after leaving say they loved playing in Boston.

Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2015, 01:02:11 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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If we offer a max 1 year + player option with restricted free agency, it could entice some guys to come here. Millsap is a money man in my opinion.

That's not how restricted free agency works.

d'oh! well unrestricted, or w.e. we should be able to retain someone after being a part of the club, most of the players after leaving say they loved playing in Boston.

If your goal is to use a short stint to convince someone to stay in Boston long-term, the strategy would be to look for players who will hit free agency in a year and be willing to give up draft picks and young players for a guy who might walk with nothing in return next summer.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2015, 01:05:42 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'm 100% in on getting Millsap as a fallback plan to the top free agents that probably won't have interest in the C's.
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Re: Getting Paul Millsap
« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2015, 01:09:56 PM »

Offline CelticGuardian

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If we offer a max 1 year + player option with restricted free agency, it could entice some guys to come here. Millsap is a money man in my opinion.

That's not how restricted free agency works.

d'oh! well unrestricted, or w.e. we should be able to retain someone after being a part of the club, most of the players after leaving say they loved playing in Boston.

If your goal is to use a short stint to convince someone to stay in Boston long-term, the strategy would be to look for players who will hit free agency in a year and be willing to give up draft picks and young players for a guy who might walk with nothing in return next summer.

We would have to give up draft picks and players to sign Millsap in free agency?  ???

My strategy is to make a player interested by allowing them to be financially savy, we should use the new TV deal to our advantage when it comes to the big tier FAs, especially those already in awesome teams.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 01:19:32 PM by CelticGuardian »