Some interesting figures for Boston players

[crimson_stallion]

I just stumbled upon the "Real Plus-Minus" stats here:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/1

I thought some of the Celtics fans might find some of the following facts interesting...

1) Marcus Smart ranked 11th among PG's in 'Defensive Real Plus Minus" and 23rd in "Offensive Real Plus Minus".  His overall "Real Plus Minus" stat of +2.02 ranks 15th among all NBA Point Guards, putting him above some interesting names:

Darren Collison
Mike Conley
Ty Lawson
Brandon Jennings
Jeremy Lin
Isaiah Thomas
Reggie Jackson
Derek Rose (elbiet injured)
Kemba Walker
Mo Williams

This is a nice indicator that Smart really does impact the team more than his stats would suggest, because there are some pretty nice players on that list.

Surprisingly Smart's ORPM is actually higher than his DRPM, indicating that he actually has even more positive impact on Boston's offense then he does on their defense - didn't expect that!

Avery Bradley is not far behind Smart in terms of defensive impact, but he has a negative offensive impact (-1.02) which puts him at an overall slight negative (-0.44).  Both Bradley and Smart rank top 15 among PG's in defensive impact though, which shows why we are so tough to beat when they are out there together.

Isiah Thomas ranks a whopping 12th in the NBA (among ALL players, regardless of position) in ORPM with a +4.16 result.  This means that there are only 11 guys in the league who impact their teams offense as much as Thomas does for Boston.  Unfortunately this is somewhat negated by the fact that he has a negative (-3.41) defensive impact, but his offense helps the team more than his defense hurts it (+0.75 overall).

Another interesting one - Jae Crowder ranks 16th among Small Forwards in OFFENSIVE RPM (+0.85) but unfortunately is a -1.09 for DRPM.  Big surprise as I always felt (from the eye test) that he impacted the game more with his defense.

Boston's top ranked PF was Jared Sullinger, with an ORPM of +1.41 and a DRPM of +0.09 (total of +1.5 is 22nd among Power Forwards). 

Amusingly, that wasn't Boston's best at the position.  Jonas Jerebko has a +0.91 on offense and a +1.34 on defense.  His total RPM of +2.25 is good for 15th among all Power Forwards.

At the center spot, Kelly Olynyk gave me the ultimate shock.  His ORPM (+1.74) ranks third among all centers (below only DeAndre Jordan and Marc Gasol :O ) while his defensive RPM of +1.54 was actually good for 29th among centers.  His total Real-Plus-Minus of +3.28 is 8th among NBA centers, 42nd among all NBA players, and first among all Celtics. 

So in terms of total positive impact on the team, the Celtics leaders are:

1) Kelly Olynyk (+3.28)
2) Jonas Jerebko (+2.25)
3) Marcus Smart (+2.02)
4) Jared Sullinger (+1.5)
5) Isaiah Thomas (+0.75)
6) Tyler Zeller (+0.3)
7) Jae Crowder (-0.24)
Luigi Datome (-0.24)
9) Avery Bradley (-0.44)
10) Gerald Wallace (-1.03)

Yeah, I chuckled at the Gerald Wallace part too - top 10 on the team?? haha I'll put that down to a combination of his hustle and small sample size.

[GratefulCs]

Kelly B. Goode

[viulo]

Just considering the eye test, I'm really impressed with Jerebko's defense.
Sorry if this explanation sounds a little strange, with english not being my 'natural' language, but: Watching the game against Cleveland's d-league team, I confirmed something that had already caught my eye - his help from the weak side is impressive. Sometimes he's so good that the guy he's defending is the one alone taking the shot, because the other rotations aren't fast enough. He won't block much shots because he's so fast that the guy that's driving to the basket usually doesn't even attempt to shoot, he just kicks the ball outside. I'm not surprised if the numbers show he has a great defensive impact.

Plus he rebounds like a maniac...

[Joe Green]

Awesome post.

As I have been telling everyone who is willing to listen (and those who don't)

Sully is a fantastic talent, and we should all be hoping he gets into shape and stays with the team. I can't fathom why people want to see him go.

Kelly is a very very good player. Skill counts for a lot. He is not physically gifted like Gianis or Gobert, but he is better than most of the players in his draft class.

AB is a defensive pitbull, but his total lack of inside game (rebounds, FT) and terrible passing (did you see his TO tonight?) make him very inefficient as a starter.

Smart will be VERY VERY good. His one big drawback - outside shooting is really not as bad as I feared and his ability to physically dominate his opponent at PG is unmatched since Deron Williams entered the league.

[crimson_stallion]

Awesome post.

As I have been telling everyone who is willing to listen (and those who don't)

Sully is a fantastic talent, and we should all be hoping he gets into shape and stays with the team. I can't fathom why people want to see him go.

Kelly is a very very good player. Skill counts for a lot. He is not physically gifted like Gianis or Gobert, but he is better than most of the players in his draft class.

AB is a defensive pitbull, but his total lack of inside game (rebounds, FT) and terrible passing (did you see his TO tonight?) make him very inefficient as a starter.

Smart will be VERY VERY good. His one big drawback - outside shooting is really not as bad as I feared and his ability to physically dominate his opponent at PG is unmatched since Deron Williams entered the league.

Regarding Sully I think it's more the mental side of it (his attitude, perceived lack of motivation, perceived laziness, etc) that have people on the 'trade Sully' bandwagon. 

That's especially concerning when you combine it with his history of injury / health issues.

When you have a guy like AB, the injury history doesn't bother me as much because I know he's a pure effort/hustle/team-first guy and that he's the type of person who (even if he is hurt) will put every ounce of effort into getting healthy.  Plus you can tell he takes his job seriously and takes good care of his body, so if anybody is going to defeat that injury bug it's going to be somebody like.

But you look at a guy like Sully and you see he's always injured, you see the history of back problems, then you see all the weight his carrying (plus his physical style of play) and you see that he doesn't appear to take very good care of his body (his weight issue doesn't seem to be improving)...and when you put all that together it seems - at least to me - like you're looking at a very high risk player. 

On a rookie contract it's fine, he's not much risk...but when it comes time to discuss contract extensions, and he's asking for $8M-$12M over 4 years, then all of this risk concern starts to become significant. 

I don't think there is anybody who denies the fact that Sully is incredibly skilled / talented, the bigger concern is...if we commit ~$40M/4 to this guy, will he then settle on the fact that he has a nice big contract and either:

a) Get lazy / lose motivation and have his a career drop off a cliff (Vin Baker / Big Baby)
b) Get overweight and lose his ability to remain effective (Eddy Curry)
c) Run into constant injury issues and retire early (i.e. Bynym / Oden) after a couple of years.

That I think is the fear.
 

[SparzWizard]

Of the top 10 rookies from the 2014 NBA Draft Class, only Marcus Smart made it to the playoffs and will actually play in it. Jabari Parker of the Milwaukee Bucks is excluded because he is out for the season.

 

[Joe Green]

Awesome post.

As I have been telling everyone who is willing to listen (and those who don't)

Sully is a fantastic talent, and we should all be hoping he gets into shape and stays with the team. I can't fathom why people want to see him go.

Kelly is a very very good player. Skill counts for a lot. He is not physically gifted like Gianis or Gobert, but he is better than most of the players in his draft class.

AB is a defensive pitbull, but his total lack of inside game (rebounds, FT) and terrible passing (did you see his TO tonight?) make him very inefficient as a starter.

Smart will be VERY VERY good. His one big drawback - outside shooting is really not as bad as I feared and his ability to physically dominate his opponent at PG is unmatched since Deron Williams entered the league.

Regarding Sully I think it's more the mental side of it (his attitude, perceived lack of motivation, perceived laziness, etc) that have people on the 'trade Sully' bandwagon. 

That's especially concerning when you combine it with his history of injury / health issues.

When you have a guy like AB, the injury history doesn't bother me as much because I know he's a pure effort/hustle/team-first guy and that he's the type of person who (even if he is hurt) will put every ounce of effort into getting healthy.  Plus you can tell he takes his job seriously and takes good care of his body, so if anybody is going to defeat that injury bug it's going to be somebody like.

But you look at a guy like Sully and you see he's always injured, you see the history of back problems, then you see all the weight his carrying (plus his physical style of play) and you see that he doesn't appear to take very good care of his body (his weight issue doesn't seem to be improving)...and when you put all that together it seems - at least to me - like you're looking at a very high risk player. 

On a rookie contract it's fine, he's not much risk...but when it comes time to discuss contract extensions, and he's asking for $8M-$12M over 4 years, then all of this risk concern starts to become significant. 

I don't think there is anybody who denies the fact that Sully is incredibly skilled / talented, the bigger concern is...if we commit ~$40M/4 to this guy, will he then settle on the fact that he has a nice big contract and either:

a) Get lazy / lose motivation and have his a career drop off a cliff (Vin Baker / Big Baby)
b) Get overweight and lose his ability to remain effective (Eddy Curry)
c) Run into constant injury issues and retire early (i.e. Bynym / Oden) after a couple of years.

That I think is the fear.

I share your concerns, but Sully is one of the best rebounders in the league and a very good post scorer - you don't throw away that talent for a late 1st rounder. Last year people were reluctant to trade him in a Love package. Now they are ready to ship him out for pennies on the dollar.

Also, playing Center for most of his time in Boston, it sort of made sense for him to play heavier. Now, he has the summer to get in shape. At worst - he will be about the same player he was for the last 1.5 years - which is still above average NBA player. If he can slim down to around 240, he can become a much quicker PF and play well in Stevens' offense.

[KingofDaPlayazBall]

Well seems like my skepticism towards Evan Turner is justified, play so much yet not in the top 10

[BornReady]

I'm not surprised that we rank higher than expected
But I am surprised that Bradley is negative overall even offensively I thought he was good enough to be in the positive

[Joe Green]

I'm not surprised that we rank higher than expected
But I am surprised that Bradley is negative overall even offensively I thought he was good enough to be in the positive

Too small. Doesn't attack the rim. Doesn't get to the FT line. Terrible passer. No offensive rebounds.

One of the best 6"2 shooting guards in the league, which is to say, not very good

[kozlodoev]

I'm not surprised that we rank higher than expected
But I am surprised that Bradley is negative overall even offensively I thought he was good enough to be in the positive

Bradley's 15 ppg look great until you realize he needs about 14 shots to score them (which is awful by NBA measures). So there's that.

[apc]

Well seems like my skepticism towards Evan Turner is justified, play so much yet not in the top 10

I am sure that you can find other stats mechanism that will tell you Turner is great.

[sofutomygaha]

I don't know what this number means, so I don't know what I'm celebrating when I see that Kelly Olynyk's magic number is the third highest among centers.

If I rank centers by the number of y's in their last name, he comes out first.

[manl_lui]

Cool article, I am very surprised that Rondo and Smart are above Chris Paul

[Wretch]

Very interesting stats.  What I pulled from the stats is the WAR.  KO is our highest rated player, at 71 and Smart is next at 74.  It kind of reinforces the "eye test" for the team, a lot of good solid players that play well together, but no super star, yet.

I think Smart will become a Dennis Johnson like player (I consider/ed DJ to be a star and generally under rated) and will be under appreciated for all of the dirty work he does when compared to other players with glitzier stats like Efrid Payton.