Wiggins has been outstanding and I think people are very familiar with what he's been doing so far. I think earlier in the season it seemed Wiggins was a lock, but Nerlens has really improved. I think he's got a real shot at winning the award despite the fact that Wiggins gets the most press.
A couple recent articles about Noel's rise:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nerlens-noel-the-other-rookie-of-the-year/http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25129487/roy-breakdown-nerlens-noel-has-taken-big-steps-forwardFor as bad as Philly is, he's made a team that was 27th best defense last year to 12th best this year. His opponents are shooting 38% against him. The Sixers' defense is plus-4.4 points better per 100 possessions with Noel on the floor. He's 6th in the league in defensive rating this season and he's a 20 year old coming off major surgery.
Season averages:Wiggins: 16.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.6 blocks, 1.1 steal, 44%/33%/75% - 35.7mpg
Noel: 10 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 steals, 46%/61% - 31mpg
Post All-star Break averages:Wiggins: 19 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.6 blocks, 0.9 steals, 45%/18%/77% in 38.6mpg
Noel: 14 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.5 blocks, 2.3 steals, 49%/67% - 33mpg
When you get past the scoring, it really does seem like Noel has been the most impressive and most impactful rookie this season. Also note that Wiggins plays 5 more minutes per game.
Fwiw just for reference, Anthony Davis as a rookie put up 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.8 block and 1.2 steal. 52%/75% Drummond averaged 7.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1.6 block and 1 steal as a rookie, but in less minutes. Since the all-star break, Noel certainly looks like a prospect who is going to develop into a star big man... especially on the defensive end.