Summer Prediction: Cs sign Biyombo to two year, approx $12mil deal

[D.o.s.]

@ LRB33: For one thing, everything that Biyombo has done this season has been surpassed by Jason Maxiell, who I would hardly call a defensive anchor, and by our own Brandon Wright, in the hot minute he was on the Celtics (another player who I would not clamor for as a rim protector).

Maxiell +Biyombo overall:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766&sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1

Maxiell + Biyombo within six feet of the rim:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&DefenseCategory=Less%20Than%206Ft

Wright overall:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1

Wright (and the rest of the Celtics) within six feet of the rim:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&DefenseCategory=Less%20Than%206Ft

Based on the numbers, as well as the eye test, the incremental improvement that Biyombo could bring on the defensive end does not outweigh his total ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball. The C's, as currently constructed, could not afford to play him more than 20 minutes per game and still have anything resembling a reasonable NBA offense: this is what happened to Charlotte over the course of the season, and why he has seen his role diminish as the team shifted towards wanting to win games.


@Pho: That's a valid point. I think bringing him here as a project/gamble is fine (I thought the same thing about Fab Melo) but I would temper any expectations towards him being able to find legitimate minutes on a competitive Celtics team.

[PhoSita]

  I see that Biyombo had the best defensive rating on his team (99) for two years running.  Oddly he had the best offensive rating on his team as well (115). 

From what (little) I understand about Offensive and Defensive Rating, that actually makes sense.

ORtg is a more individual stat -- it's a measure of how many points the team scores per 100 possessions on shot attempts by that player.  So guys who do nothing but complete open dunks have really high offensive ratings.

DRtg is more of a team stat -- it's a measure of how many points per 100 possessions the team gives up while that player is on the floor.


So, being a very good rim protector who plays 10 minutes a night against the other team's bench is a great way to pad your defensive rating.

[Donoghus]

A two year deal at $6 million per? 

I'll reiterate what I said back in March, why the heck not?  That's a drop in the bucket and not a team crippling deal by any means. If he flops, so be it.  It's only two years.

[PhoSita]

A two year deal at $6 million per? 

I'll reiterate what I said back in March, why the heck not?  That's a drop in the bucket and not a team crippling deal by any means. If he flops, so be it.  It's only two years.

I think the question is whether that could be enough to get Charlotte to let him go.  Sure, he doesn't have a clear path to more than 10-15 minutes a night on that Hornets team, but with the cap increasing, it doesn't make a lot of sense to let a young player with any significant value go, especially when you can't expect to use cap space to sign major free agents anyway.

[Future Celtics Owner]

If we can get BB for a cheapo deal then I would be for it.

I remember last summer when we were debating getting him or Rudy Gobert, in trade scenarios. LOL one did much better than the other this season but both were relatively the same last year in CB's eyes.

[Future Celtics Owner]

6m a year to put in perspective is the same $ IT makes. We got a steal with that boy!

[LarBrd33]

this is what happened to Charlotte over the course of the season, and why he has seen his role diminish as the team shifted towards wanting to win games.

....   Biyombo got more minutes as the season progressed and the inept Hornet management discovered that elite defense results in wins.   It's the same issue they have with MKG.  Go ping their fanbase and ask about it.   They have one of the most versatile and dominant defenders in the game (MKG) and yet they were playing him 24 minutes per game.  Shockingly, the team played dramatically better the more minutes they fed to MKG.  Odd it took them this many years to realize that... too busy letting Kemba Walker (and his 38% FG/30% from three) jack up 16 shots per night.

Last we saw Biyombo, he was spending the last 11 games of the season as the team's starting center averaging 30 minutes, 7 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 54% shooting and 64% from the line.  Do you call that a diminishing role?   The team's best stretch of the entire season happened in in Feb when they won 8 out of 9 with Biyombo as the starting center.   How do you translate that into taking away minutes from Biyombo as the team tries to win?

Need Maxiel stats, though... so I guess what you're telling me is that of all the stats you could show me, the one you respect most says Jason Maxiell is a more elite defender than Biyombo, right?  I'll take your word for it then... if 32 year old Maxiell is available, we should grab him too.

[Donoghus]

A two year deal at $6 million per? 

I'll reiterate what I said back in March, why the heck not?  That's a drop in the bucket and not a team crippling deal by any means. If he flops, so be it.  It's only two years.

I think the question is whether that could be enough to get Charlotte to let him go.  Sure, he doesn't have a clear path to more than 10-15 minutes a night on that Hornets team, but with the cap increasing, it doesn't make a lot of sense to let a young player with any significant value go, especially when you can't expect to use cap space to sign major free agents anyway.

Very valid.

[LarBrd33]

  I see that Biyombo had the best defensive rating on his team (99) for two years running.  Oddly he had the best offensive rating on his team as well (115). 

From what (little) I understand about Offensive and Defensive Rating, that actually makes sense.

ORtg is a more individual stat -- it's a measure of how many points the team scores per 100 possessions on shot attempts by that player.  So guys who do nothing but complete open dunks have really high offensive ratings.

DRtg is more of a team stat -- it's a measure of how many points per 100 possessions the team gives up while that player is on the floor.


So, being a very good rim protector who plays 10 minutes a night against the other team's bench is a great way to pad your defensive rating.

Makes sense.  Fair to note Biyombo spent 1/3rd of his season as the team's starting center and the team had it's best stretch of the season with him manning the middle... primarily, because of the notable defensive improvement he made... so he wasn't exclusively playing garbage time against inept offenses.

Side note:   As great as Biyombo's defensive impact was, the team was essentially hot garbage in games MKG sat.   MKG was by far the most valuable player on that team.  So while Biyombo ended the season starting at center, MKG actually missed that final stretch with an injury... Hornets fell out of the playoff race as a result.  Like most Hornet fans, I would have been really curious to see what healthy MKG and Biyombo could have done together for a full season starting... such a novel idea... embrace your defensive identity.  Brilliant.  Both those guys were playing big minutes in January and won 8 out of 9 games until Biyombo went down with an injury.

[Celtics18]

Edit:

Nevermind.

[D.o.s.]

this is what happened to Charlotte over the course of the season, and why he has seen his role diminish as the team shifted towards wanting to win games.

....   Biyombo got more minutes as the season progressed and the inept Hornet management discovered that elite defense results in wins.   It's the same issue they have with MKG.  Go ping their fanbase and ask about it.   They have one of the most versatile and dominant defenders in the game (MKG) and yet they were playing him 24 minutes per game.  Shockingly, the team played dramatically better the more minutes they fed to MKG.  Odd it took them this many years to realize that... too busy letting Kemba Walker (and his 38% FG/30% from three) jack up 16 shots per night.

Last we saw Biyombo, he was spending the last 11 games of the season as the team's starting center averaging 30 minutes, 7 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 54% shooting and 64% from the line.  Do you call that a diminishing role?   The team's best stretch of the entire season happened in in Feb when they won 8 out of 9 with Biyombo as the starting center.   How do you translate that into taking away minutes from Biyombo as the team tries to win?

Need Maxiel stats, though... so I guess what you're telling me is that of all the stats you could show me, the one you respect most says Jason Maxiell is a more elite defender than Biyombo, right?  I'll take your word for it then... if 32 year old Maxiell is available, we should grab him too.

The Hornets went 3-8 over their last 11 games.
Also, in February this season, they went 3-8, which you would know if you actually looked up anything on your own instead of bleating out numbers and dates you read in an article somewhere else.  This makes you look like someone who A) has no idea what you are talking about and B) someone who can't even be bothered to fact check assertions when they agree with his premise.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHO/2015_games.html

Further more, an increase in Biyombo's minutes did not correlate in a meaningful way between Charlotte wins and losses, as you can see here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/biyombi01/gamelog/2015/#pgl_basic::9


If you don't want to come off like a ponce who has somehow wondered away from the Bleacher Report kiddie pool in the future, please do some research of your own. And since you were so quick to ignore my actual point, as you are wont to do when you find a tangent that you think you can argue instead of ceding a point I'll repost it again:

Based on the numbers, as well as the eye test, the incremental improvement that Biyombo could bring on the defensive end does not outweigh his total ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball.

If you are more interested in some players who were better defensively than precious Bismo, I suggest starting here:
http://bkref.com/tiny/w3Uwx

You will notice that his trash-tier offensive output more than cancels out his defensive impact, which is what I have been saying throughout the thread.

[LarBrd33]

this is what happened to Charlotte over the course of the season, and why he has seen his role diminish as the team shifted towards wanting to win games.

....   Biyombo got more minutes as the season progressed and the inept Hornet management discovered that elite defense results in wins.   It's the same issue they have with MKG.  Go ping their fanbase and ask about it.   They have one of the most versatile and dominant defenders in the game (MKG) and yet they were playing him 24 minutes per game.  Shockingly, the team played dramatically better the more minutes they fed to MKG.  Odd it took them this many years to realize that... too busy letting Kemba Walker (and his 38% FG/30% from three) jack up 16 shots per night.

Last we saw Biyombo, he was spending the last 11 games of the season as the team's starting center averaging 30 minutes, 7 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 54% shooting and 64% from the line.  Do you call that a diminishing role?   The team's best stretch of the entire season happened in in Feb when they won 8 out of 9 with Biyombo as the starting center.   How do you translate that into taking away minutes from Biyombo as the team tries to win?

Need Maxiel stats, though... so I guess what you're telling me is that of all the stats you could show me, the one you respect most says Jason Maxiell is a more elite defender than Biyombo, right?  I'll take your word for it then... if 32 year old Maxiell is available, we should grab him too.

The Hornets went 3-8 over their last 11 games.
Also, in February this season, they went 3-8, which you would know if you actually looked up anything on your own instead of bleating out numbers and dates you read in an article somewhere else.

#1 - I already addressed the 3-8 Finish.  MKG was out.  As big of a difference Biyombo made, MKG was more important.  In fact, check any HOrnets forum and they'll tell you MKG is by far the most valuable player on the team.  "Kidd-Gilchrist averaged personal bests in points (10.9) and rebounds (7.6) and was arguably as integral to the success of the Hornets as any player on the roster, which was evidenced by Charlotte?s 6-21 record without him on the court. "   MKG is now widely seen as one of the best defensive wings in the league:  "Often deployed on the opposing team?s best scorer, Kidd-Gilchrist continued to play remarkably well on the defensive side this season and clearly established himself as one of the best wing defenders in the NBA."

#2 - I mistakingly said Feburary.  Check January.   They won 8 out of 9 games with MKG and Biyombo starting big minutes... hot play came to an end when Biyombo got hurt.

Also, you're consistently linking to things that aren't backing up your hypothesis.  You linked to a breakdown of the Hornets win/loss record and how it correlates to the minutes Biyombo played.  I see that in games he played 27+ minutes (starter minutes), they went 6-7.   That's a 38 win pace.  The team won 33 games for the season.

And it also discounts the rest of the roster in games Biyombo played large minutes.   Al Jefferson is undeniably the best player on the Hornets.  Biyombo started in games Jefferson sat.  It speaks volumes that the team played better with Biyombo playing minutes instead of their best player.  And also previously mentioned, the team was hot garbage (6-21) in games that MKG was out with injury... which happened to overlap with the last 11 games of the season in which Biyombo started for injured Al Jefferson.

Lastly, your points do nothing to disprove the fact that Boston needs a rim protector, Biyombo is a rim protector, and Boston could potentially sign Biyombo this summer. 

[Who]

Biyombo was up and down throughout last season. Bobcats were unhappy with his inconsistent play. He still hasn't managed to put together a season from start to finish. He shows real talent (defensively speaking) for a period of time and then falls off. Hasn't shown himself capable of sustaining those good periods (yet!).

Biyombo only got good minutes late in the season because their other bigs (Big Al, C.Zeller) were injured - out or playing through injuries. Biyombo wasn't playing well at that point. He hadn't played well since he had gotten injured in January. Same reason Vonleh got minutes late in the season. Not because Vonleh earned them or was playing well. They were just short-handed and forced to play him. If not for injuries to other players, Biyombo would have been playing 10-12 minutes a night.

[LarBrd33]

Biyombo was up and down throughout last season. Bobcats were unhappy with his inconsistent play. He still hasn't managed to put together a season from start to finish. He shows real talent (defensively speaking) for a period of time and then falls off. Hasn't shown himself capable of sustaining those good periods (yet!).

Biyombo only got good minutes late in the season because their other bigs (Big Al, C.Zeller) were injured - out or playing through injuries. Biyombo wasn't playing well at that point. He hadn't played well since he had gotten injured in January. Same reason Vonleh got minutes late in the season. Not because Vonleh earned them or was playing well. They were just short-handed and forced to play him. If not for injuries to other players, Biyombo would have been playing 10-12 minutes a night.

Best stretch of the entire season had Biyombo and MKG getting big minutes in the starting lineup.

[Who]

Biyombo was up and down throughout last season. Bobcats were unhappy with his inconsistent play. He still hasn't managed to put together a season from start to finish. He shows real talent (defensively speaking) for a period of time and then falls off. Hasn't shown himself capable of sustaining those good periods (yet!).

Biyombo only got good minutes late in the season because their other bigs (Big Al, C.Zeller) were injured - out or playing through injuries. Biyombo wasn't playing well at that point. He hadn't played well since he had gotten injured in January. Same reason Vonleh got minutes late in the season. Not because Vonleh earned them or was playing well. They were just short-handed and forced to play him. If not for injuries to other players, Biyombo would have been playing 10-12 minutes a night.

Best stretch of the entire season had Biyombo and MKG getting big minutes in the starting lineup.

Biyombo played really well earlier in the season.

But he did not finish the season well.

He is still very inconsistent / undependable over the course of 82 games.