My bad I think I was wrong on the qualifying offer it is actually $1,181,348. I expect them to wait to wait to sign him until after we explore big time free agents. That way we could go over the cap to sign him. At this point I would be surprised if he's not back next year.
Datome has a $2,187,500 QO so i'm not sure they extend that offer.
Can you make the Jae Crowder contract situation clear ?
What is the min we can pay out to retain his service? Amount and years?
What is likely going to happen?
What is the worse (if Crowder and agent get greedy)?
Jae Crowder will be extended a qualifying offer of $1,181,348. He will have a cap hold of this amount as long as the qualifying offer is still extended. The Celtics can rescind this offer at any time, as long as Crowder hasn't already accepted it. The Celtics will have his Bird rights, so he can be signed for up to a 5-year deal beginning at around $16 million with 7.5% raises. This will not happen, but anything between the minimum and the amount, for 1-5 years, is permissible.
Any other team may make an offer to him for up to four years, with the same $16 million salary and 4.5% raises. This too is unlikely, but permissible. As long as the Celtics have a qualifying offer extended to him, any deal Crowder agrees to with another team can be matched by the Celtics within 3 days, in which case he remains a Celtic.
While he is a free agent, his cap hold is equal to his qualifying offer. Accordingly, the Celtics can use up their cap space to sign a free agent, and then go over the cap by giving Crowder a salary in excess of his cap hold. I do not expect the Celtics to sign Crowder to a new contract until they've made other moves, not because their waiting to see if Crowder still fits in the roster, but because his salary counts less while he remains unsigned.
I expect the Celtics would match an offer for Crowder for up to the MLE, but I don't think he will get that large an offer. I feel he will get a 3-4 year deal for $3-4 million per season, with the final year being unguaranteed, and a guarantee date of June 30th at the end of the prior season. I'm hopeful the contract declines in value every year instead of getting raises, since Ainge has more room to offer a large salary upfront this year.
The market for players like Crowder might not be huge. He's a useful role player, but do you really want to have that player cutting into your salary next year when you want to go for a star? Teams like Utah will be interested, and maybe Atlanta, but a lot of teams will wait for next year to get the Crowders of the world.