Why We Shouldn't Try for DeAndre Jordan

[littleteapot]

When the Heat defense was at its best it was a frenetic trapping defense that played with an aggression that I personally have never seen before (maybe there are others who have been watching bball for longer). They prevented the need for 1 guy to lock down the paint because
A - they often forced turnovers or forced teams to play passively to try to avoid them
B - guys moved around so quickly that there wasn't 1 guy who was staying near the middle the whole possession. Guys were rotating several times in a single possession and it often ended up that Lebron or Wade was the defacto rim protector.

It seems unrealistic to plan to become that team. The Heat had some great athletes and Lebron really is a do-it-all defensive player who was perfect for this style of play and there is a reason other teams haven't been able to fully replicate this.

[indeedproceed]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article.

Mostly that "advanced" stats all point to him being an average defender, e.g.

Only average on opponent's FG% at the rim despite high blocks (so is that really a great rim defender?)

Below average on pick-and-roll defense (a staple of many good teams)

Doesn't move the needle on team defensive rebounding ("stealing" rebounds from teammates)

I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but it does seem to refute any DPOY talk. Generally speaking, he's not a well-rounded defender, just like his offense where he shoots a high percentage but it's dampened by his garbage free throws. He's one of the most talented, but least well-rounded players out there, so any team paying big bucks better have him in the right system to succeed.

If you listen to the basketball podcasts, the nerds have been saying this for months (that DJ is overrated as a defender, and is not a viable DPOY candidate).

[D.o.s.]

edit: looks like teapot got to it while I was typing up my response.

Important to note that  the Heat won those championships in spite of their bigs defensive deficiencies -- the reason they developed that hyperactive swarming style of D which was ultimately unsustainable: they went away from it in LeBron's last year in Miami.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

We should not pursue DeAndre for a ton of money. It makes sense to put an offer somewhere between the $10-$12 range. He's still a solid defender and he can control the boards.

But if he's getting a max, lets pass.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

When the Heat defense was at its best it was a frenetic trapping defense that played with an aggression that I personally have never seen before (maybe there are others who have been watching bball for longer). They prevented the need for 1 guy to lock down the paint because
A - they often forced turnovers or forced teams to play passively to try to avoid them
B - guys moved around so quickly that there wasn't 1 guy who was staying near the middle the whole possession. Guys were rotating several times in a single possession and it often ended up that Lebron or Wade was the defacto rim protector.

It seems unrealistic to plan to become that team. The Heat had some great athletes and Lebron really is a do-it-all defensive player who was perfect for this style of play and there is a reason other teams haven't been able to fully replicate this.

Good points, but I do think that Stevens has been trying a bit of that system of late, and it has resulted in wins. CBS is using Crowder and Smart on switches to frantically harass the other team. Given another year or two and another similar defender (Middleton?), and I think the Celtics could have a defense similar to this. Maybe not quite as frantic, but good enough to have a solid team defense without a great rim protector (only Zeller and Olynyk).

I think this is what the Bucks are going for too (MCW, Middleton, GiAnt).

[D.o.s.]

^ That's been the case for a little while now, especially as teams have started to figure out the Thibodeau defense (which started to show some warts in I'd say 2011-2012).

Miami was just on an entirely different level than everyone else. The Celtics play that style of defense the same way that they play the Spurs' style of offense: you can make comparisons, but none of them are flattering to the C's.

[littleteapot]

When the Heat defense was at its best it was a frenetic trapping defense that played with an aggression that I personally have never seen before (maybe there are others who have been watching bball for longer). They prevented the need for 1 guy to lock down the paint because
A - they often forced turnovers or forced teams to play passively to try to avoid them
B - guys moved around so quickly that there wasn't 1 guy who was staying near the middle the whole possession. Guys were rotating several times in a single possession and it often ended up that Lebron or Wade was the defacto rim protector.

It seems unrealistic to plan to become that team. The Heat had some great athletes and Lebron really is a do-it-all defensive player who was perfect for this style of play and there is a reason other teams haven't been able to fully replicate this.

Good points, but I do think that Stevens has been trying a bit of that system of late, and it has resulted in wins. CBS is using Crowder and Smart on switches to frantically harass the other team. Given another year or two and another similar defender (Middleton?), and I think the Celtics could have a defense similar to this. Maybe not quite as frantic, but good enough to have a solid team defense without a great rim protector (only Zeller and Olynyk).

I think this is what the Bucks are going for too (MCW, Middleton, GiAnt).

Trapping is definitely becoming more popular. There was an awesome article about how the Hawks used trapping to beat the Cavs:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/3/7/8166459/atlanta-hawks-defense-video-cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love

The difference is that the Heat would trap on a PNR, then if the other team tried to reverse the ball, they would trap the guy on the weakside, and just keep trapping the ball and rotating until the other team made a mistake. I don't think you can do that unless you have the perimeter defenders the Heat had from a physical and mental standpoint. If Crowder and Smart trap the ball handler, but he swings it to the weakside and the closest guys are Isiah Thomas and Evan Turner, should they aggressively trap the ball? I would rather have a legit big like DJ, as flawed as he is, so when the other team does go after your weaker defenders, they can rely on the defense behind them.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

^ That's been the case for a little while now, especially as teams have started to figure out the Thibodeau defense (which started to show some warts in I'd say 2011-2012).

Miami was just on an entirely different level than everyone else. The Celtics play that style of defense the same way that they play the Spurs' style of offense: you can make comparisons, but none of them are flattering to the C's.

True. But if they were on the same level, they would be champions. CBS is setting up a great system that can win championships. That system is hard-working, team-oriented, difficult to defend, offensively potent, and high IQ.

I am optimistic about this because I see potential that is becoming reality. Now that the Celtics have cleansed their roster and filled it with system players, we are seeing wins, offensive efficiency, and defensive tenacity. Given a few more years to develop in this same system, I like our team a lot. I still think we need more pieces, but those pieces must fit the system and be on reasonable contracts. Jordan is neither.

[colincb]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article.

"..Opponents shoot 49.2 percent at the rim with Jordan nearby, which ranks 31st among 59 qualified big men... "

and

"The Clippers rank just 15th in defensive efficiency this season, slipping from a seventh-place ranking last season.... With Jordan on the floor, the Clippers give up 103.6 points per 100 possessions. When he hits the pine, it improves to 101.7 points per 100 possessions... not good news, especially considering that his backup is Spencer Hawes. While the Clippers' defense gets stingier when Jordan leaves the floor, just about every DPOY candidate has seen the opposite effect..."

and

"Most of Jordan's glass-cleaning impact is on the offensive end...The Clippers' defensive rebounding rate barely moves from 76.4 percent to 74.6 percent when he goes to the bench, indicating that he could be stealing defensive boards from his teammates."




~~~
There's more, but these are his main points.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

When the Heat defense was at its best it was a frenetic trapping defense that played with an aggression that I personally have never seen before (maybe there are others who have been watching bball for longer). They prevented the need for 1 guy to lock down the paint because
A - they often forced turnovers or forced teams to play passively to try to avoid them
B - guys moved around so quickly that there wasn't 1 guy who was staying near the middle the whole possession. Guys were rotating several times in a single possession and it often ended up that Lebron or Wade was the defacto rim protector.

It seems unrealistic to plan to become that team. The Heat had some great athletes and Lebron really is a do-it-all defensive player who was perfect for this style of play and there is a reason other teams haven't been able to fully replicate this.

Good points, but I do think that Stevens has been trying a bit of that system of late, and it has resulted in wins. CBS is using Crowder and Smart on switches to frantically harass the other team. Given another year or two and another similar defender (Middleton?), and I think the Celtics could have a defense similar to this. Maybe not quite as frantic, but good enough to have a solid team defense without a great rim protector (only Zeller and Olynyk).

I think this is what the Bucks are going for too (MCW, Middleton, GiAnt).

Trapping is definitely becoming more popular. There was an awesome article about how the Hawks used trapping to beat the Cavs:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/3/7/8166459/atlanta-hawks-defense-video-cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love

The difference is that the Heat would trap on a PNR, then if the other team tried to reverse the ball, they would trap the guy on the weakside, and just keep trapping the ball and rotating until the other team made a mistake. I don't think you can do that unless you have the perimeter defenders the Heat had from a physical and mental standpoint. If Crowder and Smart trap the ball handler, but he swings it to the weakside and the closest guys are Isiah Thomas and Evan Turner, should they aggressively trap the ball? I would rather have a legit big like DJ, as flawed as he is, so when the other team does go after your weaker defenders, they can rely on the defense behind them.

I might disgree, but I understand your point. TP to you. I would rather get another wing defender on a cheaper contract than get a flawed player like DJ.

[littleteapot]

I might disgree, but I understand your point. TP to you. I would rather get another wing defender on a cheaper contract than get a flawed player like DJ.

Well if the wing is Leonard I definitely agree with you.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I might disgree, but I understand your point. TP to you. I would rather get another wing defender on a cheaper contract than get a flawed player like DJ.

Well if the wing is Leonard I definitely agree with you.

I like Leonard too, but I think the Spurs will keep him. I would be ok with Middleton on a 8-9 million dollar contract. But I would also be ok with drafting a player like Hezanoja or Stanley Johnson.

[slamtheking]

I've never been a big fan of Jordan.  I see him as a solid defender but limited offensively.  a player that lives of easy buckets around the basket but not much other than that.  also horrid at the FT line (makes Rondo look like Bird) and his passing is meh at best.

I wouldn't mind having him on a reasonable deal (12-14 mill per) provided we had him playing with 4 very good offensive players who were also at least average defensively if not better.

[D.o.s.]

^ That's been the case for a little while now, especially as teams have started to figure out the Thibodeau defense (which started to show some warts in I'd say 2011-2012).

Miami was just on an entirely different level than everyone else. The Celtics play that style of defense the same way that they play the Spurs' style of offense: you can make comparisons, but none of them are flattering to the C's.

True. But if they were on the same level, they would be champions. CBS is setting up a great system that can win championships. That system is hard-working, team-oriented, difficult to defend, offensively potent, and high IQ.

I am optimistic about this because I see potential that is becoming reality. Now that the Celtics have cleansed their roster and filled it with system players, we are seeing wins, offensive efficiency, and defensive tenacity. Given a few more years to develop in this same system, I like our team a lot. I still think we need more pieces, but those pieces must fit the system and be on reasonable contracts. Jordan is neither.

I agree with your second paragraph, sort of. Our SAE (shot attempt efficiency) is actually lower than Philly's, for example*, even though we're better than they are on that end because we actually make our shots.


To your first paragraph... that seems very redundant to me. If our team played defense at a championship level, they'd be champions by definition.


*http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12413063/houston-rockets-atlanta-hawks-lead-league-sae-insider-daily?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nba_xxx_xxx

[LooseCannon]

Doc Rivers is the sort of GM who will overpay to keep a guy like Jordan.  Not worth trying to bid against him.  And I will keep pimping Omer Asik as the better defender who is at least as good of a rebounder and a better passer.