Out-Tanking Tankers not realistic, Hawks-like Playoff Experience best option

[drogbagarnett]

The Hawks and Cavs would destroy the Celtics in the first round.  4 games, maybe 5.  Not sure what purpose making the playoffs would serve when you are 11 games under .500 and get man handled in the first round.  It would be an absolutely terrible thing to have happen.  Now if Boston goes on some sort of run and finishes the year near .500 and makes the playoffs as the 5 or 6 seed, then sure that is something to think about, but back-dooring into the playoffs with a terrible team because everyone else is terrible is nothing like the Hawks.  And for the record, before the Hawks recent run they were out of the playoffs for 8 straight seasons and the last three years the Hawks have lost in the first round of the playoffs.  I'm not so sure they are the team to strive to be (even with their excellent record and very good team this year).

LOL!!You guys are something else...
Ok so then what do you suggest we do...?
Beat the knicks and Sixers at losing games to get a top 3 draft this year....? Unrealistic!!!
Lose enough games to make sure we dont make the playoffs to secure a potential 10th pick vs 15th pick...?? Is that better than developping our young players...? Showcasing them so other teams see them as good young assets...? I will not bet that we will win a series but i can bet that we will give hell to any of these eastern conf teams and make them sweat to advance...
So unless you can prove me that the 10th pick is significantly better than the 15th pick, I would say our young team is putting a great fight for making the playoff so sit back and enjoy...

The point isn't that we don't want to see the team in the playoffs, the point is that they're almost certainly going to get stomped if they make it.

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Have fun.

The point is not whether they win or not, the point is what type of experience and development a playoff series can provide them...
Of course you go on the basis that we are garbage so for you adding the 10th pick to a garbage lottery team will move the needle vs adding the 15th pick to a garbage playoff team....
Doesn't look like we would agree on this so I will leave you with your theories and will go get prepared to root for my favorite garbage team that fight every night to try to win...

PS: as for the last 4 10th pick vs 15th pick listed in your link, how much difference is there between those players ??
10th pick : Paul George, Jimmy Fredette, Austin Rivers and CJ McCollum
15th pick : Larry Sanders, Kawhi Leonard, Moe harkless and Giannis Adetonkumpo

[Moranis]

The Hawks and Cavs would destroy the Celtics in the first round.  4 games, maybe 5.  Not sure what purpose making the playoffs would serve when you are 11 games under .500 and get man handled in the first round.  It would be an absolutely terrible thing to have happen.  Now if Boston goes on some sort of run and finishes the year near .500 and makes the playoffs as the 5 or 6 seed, then sure that is something to think about, but back-dooring into the playoffs with a terrible team because everyone else is terrible is nothing like the Hawks.  And for the record, before the Hawks recent run they were out of the playoffs for 8 straight seasons and the last three years the Hawks have lost in the first round of the playoffs.  I'm not so sure they are the team to strive to be (even with their excellent record and very good team this year).

LOL!!You guys are something else...
Ok so then what do you suggest we do...?
Beat the knicks and Sixers at losing games to get a top 3 draft this year....? Unrealistic!!!
Lose enough games to make sure we dont make the playoffs to secure a potential 10th pick vs 15th pick...?? Is that better than developping our young players...? Showcasing them so other teams see them as good young assets...? I will not bet that we will win a series but i can bet that we will give hell to any of these eastern conf teams and make them sweat to advance...
So unless you can prove me that the 10th pick is significantly better than the 15th pick, I would say our young team is putting a great fight for making the playoff so sit back and enjoy...

The point isn't that we don't want to see the team in the playoffs, the point is that they're almost certainly going to get stomped if they make it.

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Have fun.

Actually I don't want to make the playoffs unless the team earns the spot.  Making the playoffs when you are 16 games below .500 is not earning the spot (that is basically what Boston's win percentage over the full season will yield i.e. 33-49).  It is back-dooring your way in because other teams out worsed you.  That doesn't teach anyone about winning at all.  In fact it has the opposite effect.  Now if Boston goes on a pretty good clip and gets the record up near .500 and makes the playoffs, I'd be fine with that.  That would show real progress and growth and the playoffs would just be a continuation of that growth. 

[drogbagarnett]

That's definitely true. Upsets do happen. I'm just sick of the C's being a bad team, because I'm impatient, and missing the playoffs this year would seem to offer the most benefit towards the Celtics becoming a good team as soon as possible.

I do not put a lot of stock in playoff experience for a team that's being built to be redesigned on the fly.

Would have agreed with you if the option was making the playoff or getting the top 3 picks...
But here we are getting out-tanked by specialists in tanking... no way we can battle with them for top 3 picks... we are left with the 10th pick and no player development or the 15th pick with player experience and development...
There IS value in developing our young talent!!! those can net us some big fish....

[action781]

Agreed, but the gap isn't equal, and the transitive quality you're implying doesn't exist.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2008_EC1.html

Take a trip down memory lane and look at 'why' the C's gave up three games to the 2008 Hawks -- a team that would have roundly trounced the 2014 Celtics.

The 'We Believe' Golden State Warriors upset Dallas in the first round, why aren't you using that comparison? Because it's not related to what's going on today in the slightest, beyond being two sets of NBA teams in a playoff series? The same is true for the Hawks/Celtics series from '08.

The 2014 Celtics are a garbage team. The 2008 Hawks were an average team hampered by Mike Woodson's coaching expertise. And they lost.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2008.html

The 2013 Bobcats are a better comparison for our team... and they were also a better squad that we are now.

Yes, the warriors are another good example, but my point isn't that the celtics will win, just that they won't necessarily be swept.  You say the only relation you note is that they are two teams in an NBA playoff series, which is precisely the relation I'm looking at.  Because often times when two teams meet in an NBA playoff series, these 4-0 sweeps in 1-8 playoff matchups are not as often as people think.

And the Bobcats (who were swept) are an interesting example that you brought up as being the "better comparison".  The Bobcats got matched up against the two-time defending champions and favorite to win the title.  But please do compare that series and that team to the current Atlanta Hawks (10-1 odds to win title even in a weak conference).  The team may be a more relevant comparison, but the situation is not.

Eh whatever, maybe I'm wrong here.  I don't blame anyone for not looking forward to a playoff series loss.  But I still don't think it's the worst thing for the franchise.

[D.o.s.]

Agreed, but the gap isn't equal, and the transitive quality you're implying doesn't exist.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2008_EC1.html

Take a trip down memory lane and look at 'why' the C's gave up three games to the 2008 Hawks -- a team that would have roundly trounced the 2014 Celtics.

The 'We Believe' Golden State Warriors upset Dallas in the first round, why aren't you using that comparison? Because it's not related to what's going on today in the slightest, beyond being two sets of NBA teams in a playoff series? The same is true for the Hawks/Celtics series from '08.

The 2014 Celtics are a garbage team. The 2008 Hawks were an average team hampered by Mike Woodson's coaching expertise. And they lost.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2008.html

The 2013 Bobcats are a better comparison for our team... and they were also a better squad that we are now.

Yes, the warriors are another good example, but my point isn't that the celtics will win, just that they won't necessarily be swept.  You say the only relation you note is that they are two teams in an NBA playoff series, which is precisely the relation I'm looking at.  Because often times when two teams meet in an NBA playoff series, these 4-0 sweeps in 1-8 playoff matchups are not as often as people think.

And the Bobcats (who were swept) are an interesting example that you brought up as being the "better comparison".  The Bobcats got matched up against the two-time defending champions and favorite to win the title.  But please do compare that series and that team to the current Atlanta Hawks (10-1 odds to win title even in a weak conference).  The team may be a more relevant comparison, but the situation is not.

Eh whatever, maybe I'm wrong here.  I don't blame anyone for not looking forward to a playoff series loss.  But I still don't think it's the worst thing for the franchise.

I was comparing the 2013 Bobcats to this year's Celtics, not the Bobcats/Heat series in specific. Again, I still think you're underrating the 2008 Hawks here, although on the surface its a tempting comparison to make.

[drogbagarnett]

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Well, more like the 12th versus the 17th:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/17th-overall/170509/

Solid bench players picked at both spots.
Just so everyone is clear here, that is, realistically, what we are comparing when picking at #12 versus #17. A slightly better chance at a solid bench player versus a slightly worse chance at a solid bench player.

Actually here again I prefer the last 4 17th pick listed to the last 4 12th pick listed...
Go  figure....

[drogbagarnett]

The Hawks are in the top 5 for team defense this year, and they're holding teams to the third lowest average score this season. They're a better defensive team than an offensive one, but they're just barely outside the top 5 in overall offense, sitting at 6th in offensive rating and 7th in points per game.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are currently allowing more PPG than all but five teams in the league. They're currently in the midst of running the "Philadelphia classic" on offense, pushing the pace because the players suck, but the conventional wisdom of "the game slows down in the playoffs" is true, and you can't run your way to wins in the postseason unless you're the George Karl Denver Nuggets.


You're welcome to agree with Potter, but outside of mostly baseless conjecture and unlikely hypotheticals:

IMHO, if we can figure a good scheme to slow their 3pt shooters we can steal a couple games.  Also don't count out Thomas from dropping 30 and stealing a game all by himself. 

You don't have much support for your position to be taken seriously.

The only thing that a playoff run would do is net the franchise some extra income from playoff tickets. It'd be like the Knicks series but a million times more painful to watch.

If it's that painful for you to watch our current guys fight and give their all then dont watch and pray that we finish outside of the playoffs so you can be happy with the 12th draft pick...

I'm glad you're willing to dictate how I should express my fandom.

Ok I can take that back, but you called for it talking about million times more painfull to watch...

[drogbagarnett]

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Well, more like the 12th versus the 17th:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/17th-overall/170509/

Solid bench players picked at both spots.
Just so everyone is clear here, that is, realistically, what we are comparing when picking at #12 versus #17. A slightly better chance at a solid bench player versus a slightly worse chance at a solid bench player.

um Boston is currently the 9th worst team in the league.  If Boston makes the playoffs it will almost certainly be as the 8th seed in the east, which is the 15th pick.  10 and 15 is much closer to reality than 12 and 17.  10 might get us a guy like WCS, Porzingis, or Turner, none of which are going to be available at 15.

If it's really those players who would make or break our rebuild and future than worst case just swing a future pick and move up the draft that's it...
But losing for a 10th pick is not what i would call a sound strategy... But that's just me...

[drogbagarnett]

The Hawks and Cavs would destroy the Celtics in the first round.  4 games, maybe 5.  Not sure what purpose making the playoffs would serve when you are 11 games under .500 and get man handled in the first round.  It would be an absolutely terrible thing to have happen.  Now if Boston goes on some sort of run and finishes the year near .500 and makes the playoffs as the 5 or 6 seed, then sure that is something to think about, but back-dooring into the playoffs with a terrible team because everyone else is terrible is nothing like the Hawks.  And for the record, before the Hawks recent run they were out of the playoffs for 8 straight seasons and the last three years the Hawks have lost in the first round of the playoffs.  I'm not so sure they are the team to strive to be (even with their excellent record and very good team this year).

LOL!!You guys are something else...
Ok so then what do you suggest we do...?
Beat the knicks and Sixers at losing games to get a top 3 draft this year....? Unrealistic!!!
Lose enough games to make sure we dont make the playoffs to secure a potential 10th pick vs 15th pick...?? Is that better than developping our young players...? Showcasing them so other teams see them as good young assets...? I will not bet that we will win a series but i can bet that we will give hell to any of these eastern conf teams and make them sweat to advance...
So unless you can prove me that the 10th pick is significantly better than the 15th pick, I would say our young team is putting a great fight for making the playoff so sit back and enjoy...

The point isn't that we don't want to see the team in the playoffs, the point is that they're almost certainly going to get stomped if they make it.

As to the 10th and 15th pick, that should be self evident, but:
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/10th-overall/100509/
http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/15th-overall/150509/
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Have fun.

Actually I don't want to make the playoffs unless the team earns the spot.  Making the playoffs when you are 16 games below .500 is not earning the spot (that is basically what Boston's win percentage over the full season will yield i.e. 33-49).  It is back-dooring your way in because other teams out worsed you.  That doesn't teach anyone about winning at all.  In fact it has the opposite effect.  Now if Boston goes on a pretty good clip and gets the record up near .500 and makes the playoffs, I'd be fine with that.  That would show real progress and growth and the playoffs would just be a continuation of that growth.

There are 5 teams fighting for the playoffs right now...
If we can win enough to make it with all the turnover and changes we had to go through then I say we deserved it enough... Nobody is expecting a championship this year or the next few years...  We are talking about developing our current young talents...

[jpotter33]

The Hawks don't really strike the fear of God into me. I think we'd give them a hell of a series due to our defensive tenacity. No team wants to be playing against a backcourt defensive duo of Smart and Bradley in the playoffs. Of course they're favored to win and probably would, but I think of us as the 2013 Houston Rockets who gave OKC all they could handle in the first round.

And you know what Houston did that summer? Picked up a superstar in Howard! It's a win-win! 

All this tells me is that you probably don't watch the hawks.

More snarky one-liners, eh?

That you categorically dismiss so many comments and views on here with passive-aggressive one-liners just tells me you must have one hell of an ego on you.

but you have to admit, they are cute. 

Haha, not really.

Honestly, I think those types of posts discourage genuinely interesting and stimulating discourse.  I just think it's disrespectful to post in that manner. And it's something I've seen a plethora of people here mention as bothering others, too.  There are plenty of other ways to relay the same thought in a less snarky and passive-aggressive way.

[celticsclay]

The Hawks don't really strike the fear of God into me. I think we'd give them a hell of a series due to our defensive tenacity. No team wants to be playing against a backcourt defensive duo of Smart and Bradley in the playoffs. Of course they're favored to win and probably would, but I think of us as the 2013 Houston Rockets who gave OKC all they could handle in the first round.

And you know what Houston did that summer? Picked up a superstar in Howard! It's a win-win! 

All this tells me is that you probably don't watch the hawks.

More snarky one-liners, eh?

That you categorically dismiss so many comments and views on here with passive-aggressive one-liners just tells me you must have one hell of an ego on you.

but you have to admit, they are cute. 

Haha, not really.

Honestly, I think those types of posts discourage genuinely interesting and stimulating discourse.  I just think it's disrespectful to post in that manner. And it's something I've seen a plethora of people here mention as bothering others, too.  There are plenty of other ways to relay the same thought in a less snarky and passive-aggressive way.

JPotter Tommy point for you. I have said this in other threads. I really like the board and learn a lot of stuff here, but sometimes that really gets derailed by people trying to prove how smart they are, or put off snarky one line posts. We are pretty much all celtics fans, and probably somewhat diehard fans at that to be spending time on a team message board. If we were watching a game together, or cheering for them in the bar, we would probably have some of the same disagreements about how good certain players are and what trades we could make, but I highly doubt we would offer dismissive one line comments in the middle of the conversations in real life. I realize I am not changing the world here, and probably not even any individual poster's behaviors, but it would be good to step back and remember we are all fans of the same team, and passionately at that, before we hit send on stuff that we wouldn't say in real life or is insulting to a fellow fan. (I also am guilty of this myself at times, so something I always need to be mindful of)

[D.o.s.]

I'm not in the business of trying to prove how smart I am, and I'm not trying to be dismissive, but the fact that a couple of posters are getting their panties in a bunch over my reticence at exhaustively explaining why they are wrong, instead of just pointing it out, is not my concern.


Like I said before:

We'd get 4-0'd or 4-1'd by the Hawks, because our team is awful and their team is not. If you think otherwise, I'd wager that I'm giving your comments about as much credit as they deserve.

Sorry you get so upset by brevity.

If you read the last few pages of the thread, there are multiple posters reaching the same conclusion. We got into a discussion about it, and it would seem that

The sum of all this data is your comparison is a very poor one.

[jpotter33]

The Hawks don't really strike the fear of God into me. I think we'd give them a hell of a series due to our defensive tenacity. No team wants to be playing against a backcourt defensive duo of Smart and Bradley in the playoffs. Of course they're favored to win and probably would, but I think of us as the 2013 Houston Rockets who gave OKC all they could handle in the first round.

And you know what Houston did that summer? Picked up a superstar in Howard! It's a win-win! 

All this tells me is that you probably don't watch the hawks.

More snarky one-liners, eh?

That you categorically dismiss so many comments and views on here with passive-aggressive one-liners just tells me you must have one hell of an ego on you.

but you have to admit, they are cute. 

Haha, not really.

Honestly, I think those types of posts discourage genuinely interesting and stimulating discourse.  I just think it's disrespectful to post in that manner. And it's something I've seen a plethora of people here mention as bothering others, too.  There are plenty of other ways to relay the same thought in a less snarky and passive-aggressive way.

JPotter Tommy point for you. I have said this in other threads. I really like the board and learn a lot of stuff here, but sometimes that really gets derailed by people trying to prove how smart they are, or put off snarky one line posts. We are pretty much all celtics fans, and probably somewhat diehard fans at that to be spending time on a team message board. If we were watching a game together, or cheering for them in the bar, we would probably have some of the same disagreements about how good certain players are and what trades we could make, but I highly doubt we would offer dismissive one line comments in the middle of the conversations in real life. I realize I am not changing the world here, and probably not even any individual poster's behaviors, but it would be good to step back and remember we are all fans of the same team, and passionately at that, before we hit send on stuff that we wouldn't say in real life or is insulting to a fellow fan. (I also am guilty of this myself at times, so something I always need to be mindful of)

TP back at you.

We're all guilty of it, and I think the nature of blogs and internet dialogue kind of promotes this type of aggressive disagreement.

I do find it funny though that we all disagree this much when we're all here for a common purpose. lol A lot of times you'd think this blog was a Youtube comment section or Facebook as contentious as it is. lol But that's part of what makes Celticsblog so great. There are a huge variety of opinions and viewpoints on here on such a narrow topic as a professional basketball team.

[slamtheking]

I still don't think the C's will make the playoffs but I think they'll keep the chase for that last spot interesting until late in the season. 

I think the team would probably  be better served with a better draft pick than a first round matchup with Atlanta but if they should happen to make the playoffs, good for them.  It's not like Danny hasn't done as much as he can to make this a bad team (excluding the IT trade).  The players are making the effort to win as they should. 

can't see how anyone could get so irritated with that.  team plays hard and gets some wins.  isn't that would we should be wanting as fans? 

[celticsclay]

I'm not in the business of trying to prove how smart I am, and I'm not trying to be dismissive, but the fact that a couple of posters are getting their panties in a bunch over my reticence at exhaustively explaining why they are wrong, instead of just pointing it out, is not my concern.


Like I said before:

We'd get 4-0'd or 4-1'd by the Hawks, because our team is awful and their team is not. If you think otherwise, I'd wager that I'm giving your comments about as much credit as they deserve.

Sorry you get so upset by brevity.

If you read the last few pages of the thread, there are multiple posters reaching the same conclusion. We got into a discussion about it, and it would seem that

The sum of all this data is your comparison is a very poor one.

You are stating an opinion though not a fact. I tend to agree with your opinion that we would probably lose 4-1 to the Hawks (with a sweep being possible). However, even just referring to other poster's getting their panties in a bunch is insulting. Why throw that in? It is just a fellow fan that has a different opinion then you.